I certainly wouldnt go that far, i just think that some context needs to be placed on them in terms of games being worthless and a small sample size combined with large roster changes

This is kind of backwards thinking, IMO.

You take the player highest up on your board, regardless of position. Team needs are so dynamic you're best to go with the guy you think has the highest ceiling.

Even if they go into it with the desire to take a LD...if the guy you wanted in that spot gets taken and the next LD on your list is 10 spots lower, I don't think you commit to taking a LD.

As an example, the 2015 draft. The leafs were starving for a big, #1 center or top pairing D. I remember a lot of fans pining for the 6'3" Dylan Strome and hoping the leafs would trade one spot with Zona...but Zona takes Strome. Two highly touted d-men in Hanafin and Provorov are on the board along with another 6'3" center in Pavel Zacha. Leafs go with a small, skilled winger named Marner because he was the highest ranked player on their board when they were picking. I recall arguing with friends who thought it was a colossal mistake. Obviously this scenario worked out...but the success isn't the point, it's the strategy of not committing to a particular position when, in most cases, you're 2-3+ years away from seeing that draft pick fighting for a roster spot in training camp.

This is exactly the correct line of thinking. Thank you

I wonder if Jarnkroks emergence as a viable top 6 option paired with the eventual arrival of Knies spells the end of Bunting in Toronto. He will probably command a pretty sizeable pay raise for a diminishing role in Toronto. Plus, we will need to resign Samsonov. I'd like to keep Bunting, but if it's going to be a long term ~4.5 mil deal, I'd probably pass.

Would suck to see Bunting go and I'm sure he'd succeed, but I think it's the most likely outcome given where we stand right now.

I’ve seen a few suggest this lately and honestly coming around to it:

Kerfoot Matthews Jarnkrok
Bunting Tavares Marner
Lafferty O’Reilly Nylander
ZAR Kampf Acciari

I hate Kerfunk there (Vrana😤) but especially on the road when we don’t have last change, spreading out the lines could make a lot of sense.

Then at home, stack up the top 6:
Bunting Mathews Marner
Tavares O’Reilly Nylander
Kerfoot Lafferty Jarnkrok
ZAR Kampf Acciari

If only Robertson was healthy, could have been a big boost

Dubas almost always drafts based on position of need early unless its someone from SOO then your almost always guaranteed to come. 2015 was Hunter and besides Marner not a very good drafter and surprisingly that was the one case he moved away from his norm. As if he stuck to it Hanafin would have probs happened.


As for Dubas Amirov and Knies classic examples as he even said with Amirov, we see him in a few years contributing to this team. And this was with Mercer and Schneider sitting there who most scouts viewed as better. But still the need for LW was present.


Another good example Knies and the need for a power forward. The signs were there Hyman was leaving and so in comes Knies who scouts said looked like Hyman in junior but with a better shot and who filled the PF spot. Wonder if Hyman extended would Knies have even been drafted. Some food for thought

Kind of the same with all the goalies. He knew the pool was weak went and drafted 3 goalies then sighed 3 junior FA (Cavelin, Petruzelli, McKay). Kind of mimicking Carolina's system not complaining but interesting.

RN Leafs weak points are C and LD (With Sandin's departure). And as we saw last year Dubas went and got a C in Minten when it was clear we needed some C prospects. And if were going hes the best Belluz was available and scouts had him higher. Now with Sandin's departure if I could go back in time I would tell him go get Hutson but hey we dont got no time driving cars. But still would not surprise me if he does it again or goes and gets a LD to start filling in that hole in the pool.


In the end I feel 2023 will probs be a Center unless ROR extends which rumor has it Dubas is pushing for. And if this happens and Bunting leaves maybe we see a LW drafted. If both are extended then got a feeling a LD like (Allen, Simashev, Lindstein, etc.) is coming unless some guy from the SOO quickly rises the ranks but based on Dubas's last 2 drafts he will probs go off the norm again and draft Simashev 6'4 200 pounds

If Robertson could have stayed healthy this year and contribute man the need for LW would have been a distant memory

To bad the injury fairy seems to be clinging to him

Like imagine

Bunting-Matthews-Jarnkrok
Kerfoot-JT-Marner
Robertson-ROR-Nylander
Lafferty-Kampf-Acciari

I know Sammy said hes fine but I would rest him till he feels hes 100%. That injury could stir up into something bad and against Tampa that could be a death sentence. Give Woll a few more looks

And we should tread the waters carefully with Brodie, I know hes only D2D but hes our most important D and so we should rest him at every opportunity now even if hes 100%. We got 8 other Dman just use them

I wouldn't want Robertson anywhere near a checking line, especially with his injury history. It's top 6 or move on.

Now it was only a small sample size but the combination of Robertson Tavares Marner was really good.
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I would like to see that line revisited next year. The talent is there, he just needs to slow down.

But would Robertson ROR and Nylander really considered a checking line by standard. If anything u could say we would have 3 scoring lines and then a checking/Shutdown line as the 4th line

Was mainly trying to suggest a spread scoring out a bit especially with Jarnkrok and Matthews developing something. Wish he and ROR were healthy would love to have seen it before playoffs at least once but hey if ROR extends we got a chance. But for the love of god stay healthy lul

Pretty accurate

That game honestly put Murray back on the map. Team dead tired no support and he kept us in it especially against his former team.

To be fair, none of those examples are proof that Dubas picks position over best player available. Of course, when you draft a guy, you talk about seeing him fitting in to your lineup...but these guys are multiple years away. My point is, you don't commit to drafting a particular position with a certain pick. If they loved Knies at 57th overall because he was a power forward...if he ends up getting drafted 56th by Florida doesn't mean they just go to the next power forward on the list. There's millions of dollars and hours put in to scouting, it's doing the franchise a disservice to have tunnel vision.

If the leafs had first overall pick this year, they're not taking David Reinbacher because they need a big RHD man and already have top 2 centers. They take bedard because he's the best available. I know that's an extreme example but that philosophy is going to play out throughout the draft.

Last year he drafted Minten 38OA when in the rankings this is where he was

Ranked #64 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #47 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #101 by MCKEEN’S HOCKEY
Ranked #85 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #28 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
Ranked #68 by RECRUIT SCOUTING
Ranked #94 by DOBBERPROSPECTS


This is an example of drafting based on need. As if he wanted the best guy out there Goyette or Belluz would have happened as all were ranked better and have higher projections . Leafs needed a 3c with some bite to his game so he went and drafted Minten, didnt trade down (Maybe should have), didnt gamble on if he would be available later, he did it as there was a need. And with the lack of certain prospects I mentioned earlier and with the changes to the scouting department would not surprise me if a guy like Simashev happens. As Dubas keeps surprising us

I feel like people get too bogged down in the argument of drafting the "best player available", because realistically the best player at that spot is subjective. Lane Hutson is an elite offensive defenseman and is often pointed to when people attempt to dismiss Minten as a pick. What makes Hutson so good though? His offensive production? What makes Minten so good? His physicality and two way game? How do you even begin to compare two vastly different players and conclude which one is better? Like it or not, organizational needs play a large part in determining the best player available. It is extremely difficult to compare prospects and call one better than another. Looking back at drafts and saying "well, what if...", or "we should've picked _____ instead of _____" is a worthless fight. Obviously you shouldn't go into the draft thinking "well, we need a this position so thats what we are picking" (i.e Nemec over Wright). The whole process of drafting players is extremely difficult. Dubas has done a bang up job though, and I think the best way to go about appreciating a draft is focusing on the picks your team makes and not writing them off because of the picks another team makes.

Marlies legend

To me I think in recent drafts Dubas has been drafting based on need rather than best guy. Now one could argue he went for best in 2020 but the need argument is in plain sight for 2021 and 2022 drafts

2021 Hyman is leaving we need a power forward LW replacement. Dubas alright there's this kid in the draft named Knies lets get him.

2022 We got no center prospects for the bottom 6. Alright lets draft this kid who can score and has some bite to his game. I know what scouts are saying but he seems perfect. But there are better centers yeah but he fits our future mold.

Now there is nothing wrong with going and getting the best guy but it just does not feel like a Dubas move. Dubas is very calculated and recently has been surprising us with his out of the norm choices these last 2 years. As before it was small and skilled. Now were seeing variety. I would not be surprised if a C or LD happen with his first choice (Hes trading down 100% which is why I dont mention the Bos pick)

Pretty funny

On a PTO
Then on AHL PTO
Then signs AHL deal
Gets traded to Bellville as they ran out of goalies for FC
Does well so signs a 1 year NHL deal
Debut allows 2 goals on 47 shots

BRUH

8 goals, 12 points in 30 games with COL.

Nice to see him doing well. He was straight cheeks in Toronto though (no worse than Kerfoot though)

I honestly feel if Kerfoot was traded he would go on an insane scoring streak 5 goals 9 assists in 5 games and we would be going HUH

I dont bother trying to understand why anymore I just go by the saying some players work and some dont

That's just how she goes 🤷‍♂️

It's not an issue exclusive to the Leafs. I get it sucks and I'll occasionally be a little annoyed by it (circa Rasmus Sandin), but realistically the Leafs management knows WAY more than us. These things happen for a reason

To add to this: The Leafs have a very good eye for identifying talent. The issue comes when that talent is inserted into the lineup. We are extremely fortunate to save an absolutely insane top 6, so many of our talented finds cannot crack the top 6 and get a significant look. This was the case with guys like Barabanov, Moore, Sandin, Malgin (sort of), etc. While they were in Toronto, they weren't succeeding in a depth role and weren't better than any of the guys we already have. Its a winless fight to dissect every iffy trade Dubas has made because they have happened for a reason

Malgin’s most common line mates:
Kampf/ZAR 98 min
Rodrigues/Newhook 43min
Nikushkin/Compher 36min
Tavares/Marner 36min

Put offensive players in position to succeed.

Barabanov’s most common line mates in TOR:
Simmonds/Engvall 18:51
Spezza/Boyd 17:50
Kerfoot/Nylander 16:50
Spezza/Engvall 10:32