Quoting: JhonnyCanuck5
DeBrincat points per game last 3 years: .933
Pettersson points per game last 3 years: 1.02
That’s the equivalent of 7.13 points over the course of a season.
Hardly a difference that shows Pettersson is “by far better” or “3 times better” than DeBrincat.
So statistically, an extra 1st, a middle 6 forward, and a good prospect should make up for the 7 point difference over 82 games.
Of course, who am I to let facts and statistics get in the way of a good narrative…
Let's look at all the factors that give Pettersson more value than DeBrincat.
1. DeBrincat had 78 points in 82 games last season, Pettersson has 96 points in 74 games this season (on pace for 105 points in 82 games). That's a difference of nearly 30 points. Sure you can look at stats from 3 years ago, but their stats from this season paint a different picture, namely that DeBrincat has been consistantly the same player over the past 3 years while Pettersson has been progressing better and better every year. If you want to say I'm letting facts get in the way of a good narrative, then it seems you are doing the exact same by ignoring Pettersson's break out year.
2. Pettersson is a complete two-way forward who will likely be a Selke finalist this year, and for many years to come. DeBrincat is a one-dimensional scoring winger who is terrible in his own zone.
3. Pettersson plays centre, DeBrincat is a winger. Centres historically hold more value than wingers.
4. The Blackhawks were shopping DeBrincat and looking to rebuild. They were actively looking to get the best offer and were going to move him for whatever that offer was. The Canucks have stated that they have zero intent to move Pettersson and view him as their franchise centrepiece that they want to build their team around. As such, even if this offer was fair value (which it isn't) they wouldn't consider trading Pettersson for anything short on a massive overpay, as they have absolutely zero reason to trade their franchise centrepiece who is their future captain.
5. The Senators received the 7th overall pick for DeBrincat. You're offering 2 1sts that project to be in the 14-20 range. If we're valuing the Islanders and Red Wings picks as both equal to a 1st in value, then the pick Ottawa received is worth 2 1sts in value due to it being much higher in the 1st round. Basically, pick 7 = picks 14 & 16. An early 1st is pretty equal to the value of two mid 1sts. 2nd = 2nd. Johansson is a B prospect worth a 2nd in value, that's not much better than the 3rd Chicago received for DeBrincat. Fabbri is an injury prone winger, Canucks already have too many wingers and don't need more, Fabbri doesn't really add any value to the trade and is worth a 3rd at most.
So when you break it down, Chicago received a 1st/2nd/3rd for DeBrincat, while here Vancouver is receiving the equivalent of a 1st/2nd/2nd/3rd. A single extra 2nd doesn't nearly make up for the difference in value between Pettersson and DeBrincat.