For my money, this is going to be the most comprehensive Blackhawks season review at all levels of the franchise you will find, from the moves before the season, to the moves in season, and the players and prospects who stood out, overperformed, underperformed, and are either in or out for next season. To read the companion piece where I explain the moves I made. Link to that CapFriendly forum post is right here: https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/700246
Otherwise, this is my lineup explanation (disclaimer, the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery had no bearing on my decisions).
First line: Reichel-Domi-Killorn
What a duo of veteran protection for Reichel to grow with. They’ll stand up for him at any point and both can score decently as well. The issues we have with Domi earlier in the year is that he was unwilling to take his shot. I don’t feel there’s really a designated shooter on this line, all 3 players are fairly even in their pass/shoot biases, which could mean they’re unpredictable and more dynamic.
Second line: Athanasiou-Bailey-Raddysh
I think either Athanasiou or Bailey could be the center on this line. Both of them can do it, but neither are natural centers who play there regularly. This spot likely gets filled by Bedard or Fantilli if we get a top 2 pick, otherwise, I like the outlook here. Athanasiou is an inconsistent but skilled creator of offensive space. Bailey is a pass first player and Raddysh is a shoot first guy who I’m still not sold on how well rounded his game truly is. This is a rebuild obviously and we aren’t gonna be good, but this is a decent option.
Third line: Kurashev-Dickinson-T. Johnson
There could be plenty of variability across the top 9 next season with the roster I’ve constructed. Dickinson was alright this year, Johnson was great for the first 6 games until he got hurt, and really looked a step behind after that happened. And Kurashev really didn’t take that step many envisioned he could last season, but he’s still capable of a slick play every once in a while.
Fourth line: Blackwell-Entwistle-R. Johnson
I mean, sure. This is basically what we have right now and I anticipate this is the last year for all 3 of these guys as their contracts expire after the 2023-24 seasons. I like Blackwell the most of the 3, as he’s got decent pace to his game, while Reese Johnson was a better forechecker this year than I anticipated. Entwistle is pretty much just a guy at this point. Idk what else to say if he ends up on waivers I won’t be shocked at all.
Extras: Anderson-Katchouk
Katchouk played much better to end the season than he did to start. There’s some off-ice rumors with him involving the 2018 WJC team, but until they go after players involved, I’m gonna assume he’s still here and will rotate into the bottom 6 often.
Joey Anderson could do the same, really didn’t score that much in his 20+ games with the Hawks, so unless we see something incredible next year, he’s probably in his final year here too.
Defense:
First pair: Vlasic-S. Jones
I remember this duo in the preseason last year and Vlasic was very impressive. Then he was impressive again in the AHL this year as well as in his callups to the NHL. He’s really sturdy defensively and showed some offense in the AHL as well. I think there’s a good player there in Vlasic and we should give him the opportunity to make the NHL out of camp. I anticipate he will. Seth Jones, on the other hand, had a horrible start to the season playing with Jack Johnson every night. Then, the Hawks made the obvious move and paired him with Jake McCabe, which went brilliantly. Seth Jones was the Hawks All-Star last year, but only really played like an All-Star after he was named an All-Star. Seth is a fantastic player with significantly better analytics than he gets credit for and has been the scapegoat for the hawks collapse of the last 2 years.
Yes, he’s overpaid. Yes, we paid too much in assets to trade for him. But those were Bowman decisions, not Seth. He’s done nothing by work his ass off since he got here and we need to respect him more.
Second pair: Phillips-Murphy
I think there’s a world where Connor Murphy is traded this offseason. It’s not one I’m predicting, but if he stays, he would be a great guy to pair with Kevin Korchinski in both preseason and a potential 9 game trial run to start the season. However once that’s done, I want Isaak Phillips in the NHL full time next year. He’s surpassed the AHL level and was a top 5 AHL defenseman for the first half of the season. His NHL gametime was up and down. But he’s still warranting of more considering the massive growth in his game already. Murphy is a known commodity, a reliable defensive defenseman who’s not much of an offensive factor. A good guy for young defenseman to learn next to.
Third pair: Tinordi-Zaitsev
Jeez, this team is something. Tinordi had a decent season considering he’s a fringe NHLer and was a waiver claim to start the year. This earned him a new contract with us and it’s a good player to have. Big body that will fight and stand up for young guys (something the Hawks will have more of next year). Zaitsev is basically just a contract at this point, he’s not all that good, and could get scratched a lot, but being right handed helps him and it’s easier to keep him than buy him out to stay cap compliant.
7th: Caleb Jones
I expect he will play a lot of games since he played a lot of games this year, but for now, he’s the 7th. He could fill in on the left or right side of any pair at any given time and will probably still play 60+ games.
Goalies
Starter: Varlamov
A very reliable goalie that I’ve always rated very highly, he’s a great mentor for Soderblom and I would be very excited if this was the guy we were able to get.
Backup: Soderblom
He’s getting the opportunity. This is his chance to show what he is capable of when he isn’t being overexerted at the NHL level. Varlamov will be ahead of him to make sure he eases his way into NHL regular, but we gotta get the situation right as a franchise or else it’s on us if he cracks in that scenario.
Bailey won’t cost more than a second to dump imo, and I find it more likely that he goes to LTIRetirement or gets bought out at the end of this season.
Bailey won’t cost more than a second to dump imo, and I find it more likely that he goes to LTIRetirement or gets bought out at the end of this season.
Are there injury concerns? I don’t see any listed and it looks like he’s simply being scratched for playoff games. It could be a bit less value but I think Lou would prefer to get out of the whole contract vs the buyout option which doesn’t really save that much cap hit.
Are there injury concerns? I don’t see any listed and it looks like he’s simply being scratched for playoff games. It could be a bit less value but I think Lou would prefer to get out of the whole contract vs the buyout option which doesn’t really save that much cap hit.
Hasn’t looked the same since he had Covid. His decline was pretty sudden even for a guy his age, but even if there isn’t anything there it looks like there is given his skating lol.
1. Why trade Galvas for nothing? leave him in the ahl if naything
2. Don't see why Killorn would sign here and hawks probably wouldn't be interested anyways. Another year of pain is coming next year.
3. Don't think we would/ don't see the need to buyout Petr and sign Varly. Just keep Petr and him, Soderblom, and Stauber can play 25ish games each
Rest of this makes sense to me, althought I'd like to see Regula or Mitchell get that 3RD spot
1. The Galvas trade is because the he likely doesn’t fit into Rockfords depth chart next season. Filip Roos, Wyatt Kaiser, Nolan Allan, and Ethan Del Mastro are all likely to be there next year and I think he deserves a chance elsewhere with less competition for spots. The hope was he could take a step this year and he really didn’t.
2. Killorn might not sign here, as I say in my companion post he’s a bit of wishful thinking, but l don’t know if the Lightning will be able to keep him around for salary cap reasons
3. The reasons for choosing Varlamov over Mrazek are twofold. First, Varlamov is just better. Secondly, health. Mrazek is not reliable enough in staying healthy for us to guarantee that Soderblom can be the backup all season. It’s the same reason I’m not keeping Stalock despite playing well. Stable development is the priority with our goalies and that means veterans in front of them with a track record of good health.
Lastly, I’m not sold on Regula or Mitchell at all, I actually have Mitchell being let go without giving him a qualifying offer. Hes had his chances and has failed to show anything to convince me he’s an NHL defenseman. Regula similar thing. Did not do well in his NHL time this year and was rather mediocre in his AHL time. We need to invest in RHD in the next few drafts since the pipeline is very thin.
1. The Galvas trade is because the he likely doesn’t fit into Rockfords depth chart next season. Filip Roos, Wyatt Kaiser, Nolan Allan, and Ethan Del Mastro are all likely to be there next year and I think he deserves a chance elsewhere with less competition for spots. The hope was he could take a step this year and he really didn’t.
2. Killorn might not sign here, as I say in my companion post he’s a bit of wishful thinking, but l don’t know if the Lightning will be able to keep him around for salary cap reasons
3. The reasons for choosing Varlamov over Mrazek are twofold. First, Varlamov is just better. Secondly, health. Mrazek is not reliable enough in staying healthy for us to guarantee that Soderblom can be the backup all season. It’s the same reason I’m not keeping Stalock despite playing well. Stable development is the priority with our goalies and that means veterans in front of them with a track record of good health.
Lastly, I’m not sold on Regula or Mitchell at all, I actually have Mitchell being let go without giving him a qualifying offer. Hes had his chances and has failed to show anything to convince me he’s an NHL defenseman. Regula similar thing. Did not do well in his NHL time this year and was rather mediocre in his AHL time. We need to invest in RHD in the next few drafts since the pipeline is very thin.
Hawks could add 1 more RD for sure, although it's not terribly thin. Jones and Murphy locked up long term and will still be good when the blackhawks are good again. Then there's Regula who hasn't really got a shot yet. I agree Mitchell is probably gone. Then finally there's Rinzel who we took in the 1st round last year. One more guy wouldn't hurt, but F is a much weaker spot for us and I expect it to be the focus of this draft. I also wonder is one of the Lefties will play long term on the right. With Korchinski, Vlasic, EDM, Allan, Kaiser, Phillips, and Roos, they can't all make it. A couple will bust i'm sure but even then it's worth seeing of someone like Kaiser or Korchinski can play on their off hand
If this is the F group for next season, I think Tyler J would be the 2C with either AA or Bailey dropping down to 3rd line. TJ was a much more productive player at C than at W during his time in Tampa. Hawks have not deployed him correctly since he came to Chicago. Now's the chance. Maybe enhance his value for the TDL. And if not TJ, how about Cole Guttman? Kid had a really good 1st pro season! Didn't look out of place in his 13 NHL games at all.
Agree w/ @Wadejos123 on Galvas, Killorn and Varly. Galvas can play both sides, so he still be a useful piece in Rockford. No reason to give him away unless he asks out and doesn't want to resign here.
Hawks could add 1 more RD for sure, although it's not terribly thin. Jones and Murphy locked up long term and will still be good when the blackhawks are good again. Then there's Regula who hasn't really got a shot yet. I agree Mitchell is probably gone. Then finally there's Rinzel who we took in the 1st round last year. One more guy wouldn't hurt, but F is a much weaker spot for us and I expect it to be the focus of this draft. I also wonder is one of the Lefties will play long term on the right. With Korchinski, Vlasic, EDM, Allan, Kaiser, Phillips, and Roos, they can't all make it. A couple will bust i'm sure but even then it's worth seeing of someone like Kaiser or Korchinski can play on their off hand
Yep. I think Nolan Allen gets a LONG look on the right side next season in Rockford. Great point by you!
If this is the F group for next season, I think Tyler J would be the 2C with either AA or Bailey dropping down to 3rd line. TJ was a much more productive player at C than at W during his time in Tampa. Hawks have not deployed him correctly since he came to Chicago. Now's the chance. Maybe enhance his value for the TDL. And if not TJ, how about Cole Guttman? Kid had a really good 1st pro season! Didn't look out of place in his 13 NHL games at all.
Agree w/ Wadejos123 on Galvas, Killorn and Varly. Galvas can play both sides, so he still be a useful piece in Rockford. No reason to give him away unless he asks out and doesn't want to resign here.
Great analysis by you on this! Nice job!
Guttman is a guy I expect to be in the mix for one of those roster spots. I just had him getting sent down since he’s wavier exempt but I expect him to play plenty of games in the NHL next year.
Hawks could add 1 more RD for sure, although it's not terribly thin. Jones and Murphy locked up long term and will still be good when the blackhawks are good again. Then there's Regula who hasn't really got a shot yet. I agree Mitchell is probably gone. Then finally there's Rinzel who we took in the 1st round last year. One more guy wouldn't hurt, but F is a much weaker spot for us and I expect it to be the focus of this draft. I also wonder is one of the Lefties will play long term on the right. With Korchinski, Vlasic, EDM, Allan, Kaiser, Phillips, and Roos, they can't all make it. A couple will bust i'm sure but even then it's worth seeing of someone like Kaiser or Korchinski can play on their off hand
Seth will probably be here long term, but Murphy could be gone as soon as this offseason and likely within the next 2 years. Rinzel is a fascinating prospect, but he’s incredibly raw and is many years away. Plus, we used 6 of our first 8 picks last year on forwards. A first, 2 seconds, and 3 thirds. We will continue to stock up on forwards with the early picks, but getting right handed defenseman in the pipeline has gotta be a priority as well since there’s basically nothing after Regula/Mitchell/Rinzel/Crevier (none of whom are NHL locks) in the pipeline. I do think that we could have some of our left shots play the right side, but that’s more a patch fix than a legitimate solution.
Hawks fans, what would the cost for Murphy be this summer?
Earlier this year, I was thinking about a 1f1 for Casey Mittelstadt, but since then he’s taken off and it looks unlikely that the Sabres feel they need to move on. I think a 2nd and a 3rd would be ideal. He’s got 3 years left on his contract so it isn’t a rental and he’s a reliable defense first right shot 2nd pair defenseman.
Hawksguy81, BankersBox and Garak liked this.
Reply
Reichel,
CapFriendly
CapFriendly