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Dubois Value

Created by: Howie
Team: 2022-23 Winnipeg Jets
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 25, 2023
Published: Apr. 25, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Trades
WPG
  1. Dvorak, Christian
  2. Mesar, Filip
  3. 2023 1st round pick (FLA)
  4. 2023 4th round pick (MTL)
Additional Details:
Is this Dubois' value bang on?
Seems to make sense for both and isn't screwing each other.
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
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2024
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2025
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
29$82,500,000$86,333,691$0$2,132,500-$3,833,691
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$7,142,857$7,142,857
LW
UFA - 4
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$8,250,000$8,250,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
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$4,000,000$4,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
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$2,166,667$2,166,667
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LW, RW, C
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,250,000$3,250,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$750,000$750,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$825,000$825,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$775,000$775,000
LW, C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,125,000$6,125,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$750,000$750,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$750,000$750,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$4,450,000$4,450,000
C
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$750,000$750,000
RW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$950,000$950,000
RW, C
RFA - 5
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,250,000$6,250,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$5,875,000$5,875,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,166,667$6,166,667
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$5,950,000$5,950,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$900,000$900,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,900,000$3,900,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$855,000$855,000 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
G
RFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$350,000$350K)
LD
RFA - 1
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$845,833$845,833
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$900,000$900,000
LD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$762,500$762,500
LD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LW, C
RFA - 2

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Apr. 25, 2023 at 8:39 p.m.
#51
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Quoting: Howie
So swapping in Hoffman does nothing to improve the return? Dvorak could still be useful to the Habs and to basically keep him in exchange for giving up Hoffman and pick 110 seems like a steal to keep Dvorak. Ylonen again is nothing to the jets as we would never give him the time needed to succeed. That's why I really want mesar as sure he might have struggled he can have the upside where management forces coaches to see what he could bring with an increased role. Kidney may have done better but im more worried with him always being in these deals that there's something underlying where there's a reason he's included. Like is it that mtl fans think that the production won't transfer, will he struggle and have to change his game, is there attitude or some type of personal affect? Just seems like there's a reason why Kidney is always the one choosen


Hoffman over Dvorak would be like me saying I'll throw in Norlinder or Mysak. Big picture, you don't care.

If Dubois is coming back it makes more sense for MTL to move Dvorak (the center), over Hoffman (the winger)... it should make more sense for WPG to want Dvorak over Hoffman for the exact same reason which is the part we ultimately disagree on I suppose.

Kidney has just been viewed as a Tier below Roy, Beck, Mesar etc. so he is more expendable in the eyed of most fans. I'm personally curious to see where he takes his game to next season in Laval after tearing up the QMJHL at the end of the season... I'm sure there is a prospect that MTL is comfortable trading to get Dubois, I'm not gonna pretend like I know the answer to that, but if the ask if more than what we've already discussed I feel like we are overpaying and should just take our chances with Dubois in 2024 free agency.
Apr. 25, 2023 at 8:39 p.m.
#52
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Quoting: habs1289
Montreal doesn’t have any need to spend big to get Dubois no matter what Winnipeg fans think

Dvorak and Floridas 1st
Or Dvorak kidney and a second


Florida 1st prospect and cap is the likely formula that matches what we can realistically expect
Apr. 25, 2023 at 8:44 p.m.
#53
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
Hoffman over Dvorak would be like me saying I'll throw in Norlinder or Mysak. Big picture, you don't care.

If Dubois is coming back it makes more sense for MTL to move Dvorak (the center), over Hoffman (the winger)... it should make more sense for WPG to want Dvorak over Hoffman for the exact same reason which is the part we ultimately disagree on I suppose.

Kidney has just been viewed as a Tier below Roy, Beck, Mesar etc. so he is more expendable in the eyed of most fans. I'm personally curious to see where he takes his game to next season in Laval after tearing up the QMJHL at the end of the season... I'm sure there is a prospect that MTL is comfortable trading to get Dubois, I'm not gonna pretend like I know the answer to that, but if the ask if more than what we've already discussed I feel like we are overpaying and should just take our chances with Dubois in 2024 free agency.


I'd be down with Hoffman instead as perfetti definitely needs some time to try out the 2c. It isn't a necessity for the jets to get a center back via a Dubois deal and I feel like habs don't necessarily need to trade one out if they trade for Dubois as centers can play wing and having too many centers is not really an issue but more of a blessing as injuries will happen so having Dvorak step up via injury allows for more options on line combinations.

I'd take Hoffman and take back mysak. He's someone that sure may not amount to anything but jets system can use some reclamation projects like him.

So does Florida's 1st kidney mysak and Hoffman something that could be done realistically?
Apr. 25, 2023 at 8:51 p.m.
#54
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Quoting: Howie
I'd be down with Hoffman instead as perfetti definitely needs some time to try out the 2c. It isn't a necessity for the jets to get a center back via a Dubois deal and I feel like habs don't necessarily need to trade one out if they trade for Dubois as centers can play wing and having too many centers is not really an issue but more of a blessing as injuries will happen so having Dvorak step up via injury allows for more options on line combinations.

I'd take Hoffman and take back mysak. He's someone that sure may not amount to anything but jets system can use some reclamation projects like him.

So does Florida's 1st kidney mysak and Hoffman something that could be done realistically?


I know Mysak doesn't move the needle for you, so why is FLA 1st, Kidney, Hoffman not enough? I have already said thats pushing the limits of what I'm comfortable with.

Silly to argue Mysak or a 4th round pick, but the package above should be enough... as others have said jets do not have leverage.

Edit: Norlinder is a better reclamation project, habs are crowded with D prospects (especially LHD), he could genuinely use a change of scenery... is there anyone on the Jets that needs a similar change?
Apr. 25, 2023 at 8:56 p.m.
#55
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Value is good. Pieces are always debatable of course. A good template (which is similar to this offer) is the Bo Horvat trade.

Useful roster player + good prospect + 1st

Dvorak + Beck/Mesar + Florida 1st

Something along those lines is probably pretty close.
Apr. 25, 2023 at 9:00 p.m.
#56
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
I know Mysak doesn't move the needle for you, so why is FLA 1st, Kidney, Hoffman not enough? I have already said thats pushing the limits of what I'm comfortable with.

Silly to argue Mysak or a 4th round pick, but the package above should be enough... as others have said jets do not have leverage.

Edit: Norlinder is a better reclamation project, habs are crowded with D prospects (especially LHD), he could genuinely use a change of scenery... is there anyone on the Jets that needs a similar change?


Jets could throw in gawanke. Rhd with size and scoring ability. Not really a reclamation project but more giving the player a chance to play for a team that may be able to give him an nhl future.

It may be surprising to you but I'd rather mysak and hoffman than Dvorak. Mysak was drafted in the 2nd round for a reason, he's signed for 2 more years where he can grow with the moose into a player that may play some nhl minutes. Seems like mysak wouldn't get the chance in mtl and he might with the jets. Jets just need some youth players that may have a bit of upside or a player that is that reclamation project type guy.
Apr. 25, 2023 at 9:01 p.m.
#57
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Quoting: Mediumyeet
Value is good. Pieces are always debatable of course. A good template (which is similar to this offer) is the Bo Horvat trade.

Useful roster player + good prospect + 1st

Dvorak + Beck/Mesar + Florida 1st

Something along those lines is probably pretty close.


I'd even take Hoffman if that helps the jets get a player or increase the return. Not picky on the cap that comes back
Apr. 25, 2023 at 9:05 p.m.
#58
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Quoting: Howie
Jets could throw in gawanke. Rhd with size and scoring ability. Not really a reclamation project but more giving the player a chance to play for a team that may be able to give him an nhl future.

It may be surprising to you but I'd rather mysak and hoffman than Dvorak. Mysak was drafted in the 2nd round for a reason, he's signed for 2 more years where he can grow with the moose into a player that may play some nhl minutes. Seems like mysak wouldn't get the chance in mtl and he might with the jets. Jets just need some youth players that may have a bit of upside or a player that is that reclamation project type guy.


So I have Mysak penciled in at 4th Line C / 3W in Laval next year, the issue is Kidney is 2 or 3C, so if we trade both Laval lose 2 centers (and MTL lose 2 center prospects). Norlinder is most available as a throw in, highly unlikely MTL trades Kidney and Mysak just out of need for center depth prospects in Laval.
Apr. 25, 2023 at 9:13 p.m.
#59
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
So I have Mysak penciled in at 4th Line C / 3W in Laval next year, the issue is Kidney is 2 or 3C, so if we trade both Laval lose 2 centers (and MTL lose 2 center prospects). Norlinder is most available as a throw in, highly unlikely MTL trades Kidney and Mysak just out of need for center depth prospects in Laval.


Jets don't need any lhd in the ahl tho as kuzmin will be there next year and really takes away any need for Norlinder. Like someone said you can always play mesar center so thats and option or sign on of the prospects like Davidson, kapanen, etc. You got to think that if the habs select Smith the center issue is less even tho their not in laval you lose 2 but gain 1 and that's not counting additional trades or picks in the 2023 draft.
Apr. 25, 2023 at 10:29 p.m.
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Quoting: Mediumyeet
Value is good. Pieces are always debatable of course. A good template (which is similar to this offer) is the Bo Horvat trade.

Useful roster player + good prospect + 1st

Dvorak + Beck/Mesar + Florida 1st

Something along those lines is probably pretty close.


Quoting: habs1289
Montreal doesn’t have any need to spend big to get Dubois no matter what Winnipeg fans think

Dvorak and Floridas 1st
Or Dvorak kidney and a second


The problem is that many ppl overcompensate and try to be 'fair' for likes. This wont be a fair trade. Not close unless you ignore all hearsay and context.

Few trades are perfectly even. The 17th overall I think is the max that will be given up as a major piece, if there are more pieces they'll be complementary such as money going back and/or a roster player. But I truly doubt Hughes wants to give up that 17th overall.

The Habs have been tanking all year and been building their draft lists.
Mtl fans have already fallen in love with a dozen prospects in the last month so imagine a whole management team that has been looking for months as their job 24/7.
Hughes isnt going to give up the Florida pick so easily without major concessions from the Jets which includes talking to PLD about a new contract beforehand and abstaining from his 2022 draft picks as well as getting another asset from the Jets they can use to accelerate their rebuild.

PLD is the prize but so is this Florida 17th overall. Difference being that the Habs dont have to trade the 17th but the Jets must trade PLD and it might be forced on them if PLD shenanigans get more desperate by holding out or showing up at the draft again. This could get embarrassing for the Jets especially in a tiny market that needs to have their image protected with margins so tight and relocation talk a step away.

We can easily bring back the Montreal Expos as an example.They rarely got a fair deal as a small market. Pedro Martinez? Vladdy Guerrero? If jets fans think they are the only small market once upon a time they are quite incorrect.
Apr. 26, 2023 at 9:14 a.m.
#61
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Quoting: Howie
Yeah I completely agree I see them as interchangeable for whoever mtl wants out more. Not like I'm fixated on Dvorak. Both make a bit much for what they provide. Dvorak is definitely better but cap for longer and injured. 1st mesar Hoffman and a 3rd should get it done.


Dear people winnipeg isn't taking back money. If they do go the route of retool/rebuild they will be running an internal budget. No way Dvorak and his over 11 mil dollars is someone the jets take on. Same with Anderson, Armia. None of these higher cash, lower cap hit deals will interest winnipeg at all.
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Apr. 26, 2023 at 9:24 a.m.
#62
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Quoting: Howie
Jets don't need any lhd in the ahl tho as kuzmin will be there next year and really takes away any need for Norlinder. Like someone said you can always play mesar center so thats and option or sign on of the prospects like Davidson, kapanen, etc. You got to think that if the habs select Smith the center issue is less even tho their not in laval you lose 2 but gain 1 and that's not counting additional trades or picks in the 2023 draft.


There is only 3 guys on the Habs roster jets would take back as cap... Dach, Evans or Edmundson if the trade happens after july 1 so his signing bonus is paid. Maybe Hoffman is Montreal retains 15%. That's it.
Apr. 26, 2023 at 12:02 p.m.
#63
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Edited Apr. 26, 2023 at 12:11 p.m.
Quoting: Boojets
There is only 3 guys on the Habs roster jets would take back as cap... Dach, Evans or Edmundson if the trade happens after july 1 so his signing bonus is paid. Maybe Hoffman is Montreal retains 15%. That's it.


Hoffman has 1 year and can easily be retained on to get more for him as a rental. I don't see the issue of taking on cap for next year as no one is expiring this year that is that important besides barron and Samberg who are rfas

Edit: this is an issue with Dvorak as he is signed past the 2024 season so having him could affect keeping people for sure that's why I'd prefer Hoffman as well as get a better deal as Hoffman is a better player for mtl to move on from than Dvorak
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Apr. 26, 2023 at 3:44 p.m.
#64
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Quoting: Howie
Hoffman has 1 year and can easily be retained on to get more for him as a rental. I don't see the issue of taking on cap for next year as no one is expiring this year that is that important besides barron and Samberg who are rfas

Edit: this is an issue with Dvorak as he is signed past the 2024 season so having him could affect keeping people for sure that's why I'd prefer Hoffman as well as get a better deal as Hoffman is a better player for mtl to move on from than Dvorak


The jets are going to run an internal budget of around 65-70mil dollars. They aren't retaining ****. The only type of contracts jets will take on are contracts owning less money than cap hit hit. Jets had an internal budget this year its why they didn't spend to the cap. It will only get lower next season if entering a retool/rebuild.
Apr. 26, 2023 at 3:45 p.m.
#65
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Quoting: Howie
Hoffman has 1 year and can easily be retained on to get more for him as a rental. I don't see the issue of taking on cap for next year as no one is expiring this year that is that important besides barron and Samberg who are rfas

Edit: this is an issue with Dvorak as he is signed past the 2024 season so having him could affect keeping people for sure that's why I'd prefer Hoffman as well as get a better deal as Hoffman is a better player for mtl to move on from than Dvorak


The jets are going to run an internal budget of around 65-70mil dollars. They aren't retaining ****. The only type of contracts jets will take on are contracts owning less money than cap hit hit. Jets had an internal budget this year its why they didn't spend to the cap. It will only get lower next season if entering a retool/rebuild.
Apr. 26, 2023 at 3:55 p.m.
#66
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Quoting: Boojets
The jets are going to run an internal budget of around 65-70mil dollars. They aren't retaining ****. The only type of contracts jets will take on are contracts owning less money than cap hit hit. Jets had an internal budget this year its why they didn't spend to the cap. It will only get lower next season if entering a retool/rebuild.


Trading out Dubois when if we signed him to that 8-9m offer saves cap too. Hoffman would be an okay fit on the 2nd line lw and retain 2.25m at deadline to trade him for the best return and the cap is gone after next year. I get not wanting to take on cap but to get a better return taking on Hoffman is definitely not going to ruin it. Jets already have difficulty signing players and a pp guy like him could be useful.
Apr. 26, 2023 at 4:02 p.m.
#67
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Quoting: Howie
Trading out Dubois when if we signed him to that 8-9m offer saves cap too. Hoffman would be an okay fit on the 2nd line lw and retain 2.25m at deadline to trade him for the best return and the cap is gone after next year. I get not wanting to take on cap but to get a better return taking on Hoffman is definitely not going to ruin it. Jets already have difficulty signing players and a pp guy like him could be useful.


You aren't getting it. The jets will be firm on keeping salary capped at 70mil. They are already right around there without dubois. They will be looking to shed salary not bring in any. And Hoffman isn't good and doesn't fit the culture of TNSE. You keep saying the jets can get this or that for him... ownership will not care. 65-70mil that's it period. The only way the jets take on money with any Dubois deal (montreal or any other team) is if a young player is signed long term through his prime.


This isn't about what Montreal will or won't offer its how the jets will be conducting business during a rebuild/retool. Remember the team will expect less arena revenue during a rebuild/retool and TNSE are trying to buy a mall for 80mil plus renos.

Also Dubois won't sign a contract to play hockey in Winnipeg this summer. Only way he pays in Winnipeg is if jets take him to Arb and than likely he signs an offer sheet to counter.
 
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