Good argument. Assume something about me, and call people names. You win

The pick has protections that would drive it to a pick in 2026, no?

Won’t be an issue. It will be far easier to navigate than TB 2 years ago.

We’re not looking to move Panarin by any means; however, I’m sure we’d prioritize a guy a decade younger lmao.

It has protections for 2024 and then no protections for 2025 I believe. It's a weird one

So, would a package of FLA's 2023 1st and a top prospect like Joshua Roy be good value for Laffy?

Alright, I'll bite.

1.) Sending down Edmunson at 1.75mil and Ylonen at 1mil would still leave the Oilers with a cap hit of ~600k (1.15mil/contract is buriable). I don't presume that Ylonen would be sent down, though. Assuming your own figure of 1mil on an extension for Ylonen (probably could be had for a bit less, but it's your figure sooo), that effectively means we'd have Ylonen on a cap hit of 1.6mil (1mil of his own, 600k of Edmundson's dead cap). That's fine, but non-optimal.

2.) The entire basis for your position assumes the premise that Foegele is a burden and, as such, should qualify as a cap dump- a term that SHOULD be defined as costing assets to be rid of. As my original comment suggests, I reject this premise entirely. Foegele is a quality bottom-6 F whose chance generation rates rank him between 2nd and 4th on the team (per-60) across individual scoring chance categories in company with Hyman, Kane, and McDavid. Keep in mind that this is while playing approx 75% of his minutes in the bottom-6, unlike the other 3. And it's not just chance generation but even his actual 5-on-5 offense (2.1 pts/60) exceeds his role by quite a margin. This in conjunction with his age, good on-ice chemistry with McLeod, and his off-ice relationships with the core players denotes a player of genuine value that the team should work to retain, not be desperate to dump.

Since you seem to need me to spell it out for you, the fact that I believe that Foegele is a valuable piece to the bottom-6 is the central point of my argument and one that I clearly stated in the original comment.

3.) You also frame the discussion (that snide "with no solutions" hasn't been missed) as if Edmonton would have no other options which is a falacious way to frame the discussion.

4.) Your "analysis" completely ignores Matvey Petrov's includsion in the deal who, after both his primary linemates from last year moved on from juniors, maintained a high level of play while evolving his style to produce another successful offensive season. While I won't sit here and suggest he's worth high picks, I'd peg his value within the range of 4th (or perhaps a 3rd) given his development since drafting.

5.) Lastly, you presume that any of the remotely comparable UFAs would sign in EDM and do so for a low enough cap hit to fit within what you seem to believe is an unmanageably tight cap situation. Given the aforementioned math on Ylonen and Edmundson, the replacement's cap hit would need to be less than 1.8mil to remain under the threshold of Foegele and a player on league minimum (3.425mil). This is without even addressing the likelihood that they contribute to the team to the degree that Foegele did this year.

Given all this, yes, I don't want to give up Foegele and Petrov for Ylonen @ ~1.6mil and a 3rd. Now take your "brilliant management solutions" and bad faith interpretations and shove 'em.

In terms of pure value probably since Laffy still has more upside than Roy but I don't see it happening, the Hughes regime probably wants to see what their prospects can do on the big stage first

As a non-oiler fan I often hear either that Yamamoto or Foegele are cap dumps/not worth that much. Do you think Yamamoto qualifies as that? If so would Yamamoto + Petrov for Ylonen + 3rd + Edmundson (50%) or Kovacevic work? MTL need to make some space in defence, we have 3 extras right now who would get picked up on waivers probably

Exactly who's closer or more likely to be a 'cap dump' is something that'll vary based on who you ask but, in my eyes, Yamo is likely the closest among the 4 plausible cap casualties (Yamo, Foegele, Kulak, and Ceci). I call them 'cap casualties' as distinct from 'cap dumps' to distinguish that they can be had for cheaper due to the team's cap situation. Meanwhile, I reserve 'cap dump' as a term for a player that's a burden, entirely not worth their cap hit, and that would cost assets to be rid of (e.g. Kassian last year or Campbell).

More to your question, a case could be made that Yamo's value separate from the Oilers' cap situation is the closest to neutral (perhaps even negative in some peoples' eyes) and, as such, a lowering of his value due to cap circumstances would necessitate an asset going in return to move him out. I disagree with this, but it's probably the strongest case among those 4.

To address the more general thrust of the question, I just don't think EDM is in a position to make such a move. If they were to dump Yamo, it would either be to get rid of his entire cap hit or to use him as part of a bigger deal to upgrade on him. As such, you're better off finding a different team to take on Edmundson's contract. If you're open to a suggestion, Edmundson is only due around 1.1875mil following his bonus payout and might therefore be a more attractive asset to a team looking to save money (ANA, ARI, SJ, etc). Alternatively, just bury Edmundson like your arrogant fellow-Habs fan suggested EDM do. I'm confident no one would claim him.

The narrative around Foegele is completely at odds with reality.

You mentioned that he's among the top players on the Oilers roster for chance generation, but it's better than that - he's among the best in the league.

A little context for my stats. I took full season 5v5 stats and applied two filters: forwards only and minimun TOI of 495 minutes. That leaves us with the top 385 players by minutes played. Why 385? Because there are 32 teams and each with 12 regular forwards. 32 x 12 = 384, so pretty close. This way we can divide results by "1st line" (top 96 players), "2nd line" (97-192), etc. All stats are expressed as "per 60 minutes" to equalize for TOI differences.

So here's how Foegele stacks up:

G/60: 0.93 (84th, tied with Panarin) 1st line rate
P/60: 2.09 (85th, tied with Tavares) 1st line rate
S/60: 9.36 (50th, tied with Cozens) 1st line rate
xG/60: 1.16 (9th, tied with Tavares) elite 1st line rate
SCF/60: 10.90 (23rd) elite 1st line rate
HDCF/60: 6.19 (8th), elite 1st line rate
Tka/60: 3.63 (3rd), elite 1st line rate
Hits/60: 7.11 (108th tied with Kreider) high 2nd line rate

Now consider that he spent just 8% of his TOI with McDavid this year. Foegele is a value contract, the exact opposite of a cap dump.