He is a little untested in that he hasn't played in NHL (been blocked in NJ). But he is a good prospect.

Hockey Prospecting (Byron Bader) has the following as top prospects (ranked on probability of turning into a star).

1. Luke Hughes 90%
2. Brandt Clarke 88%
3. Logan Cooley 85%
4. Simon Nemec 83%
5. Kevin Korchinski 78%

6. Olen Zellweger 78%
7. Reilly Walsh 76% < ----
8. Lane Hutson 74%
9. Shane Wright 62%
10. Lukas Reichel 56%

11. Denton Mateychuk 53%
12. Michael Benning 49%
13. Jordan Dumais 46%
14. Danila Yurov 46%
15. Ryan Ufko 42%

Rasmus Sandin was
Nils Lundkvist was at 34% last year when he was dealt for a 1st rounder.
David Rundblad was at 32% when he was dealt for 1st rounder.
Alex Romanov was in single digits.

Not that this one metric is say-all, be-all, end-all...but only asking for a 3rd here

Wow that is really cool I've never seen this before. How does it actually work?

Walsh is 24, played 1 NHL game and has a 76% chance of being a star? Surely something is off about that no? I liked him as a prospect but seems pretty far fetched he could be a star now.

I'd rather keep Walsh and Boqvist than those returns tbh. I really think giving walsh the 3RD spot for 1 year will skyrocket his value. Edit just saw we're keeping severson in this, then yeah you'd probably trade walsh

He compares production by age/league to previous players (those that have succeeded and failed) and model produces a probability based on those factors. So as an older prospect, it’s still factored in.

Walsh has played very good 5v5 hockey with some of the better advanced metrics in AHL over last two years (I believe last year there were only 8 even strength goals against with him on the ice). Will it translate? Who knows…time will tell.

He wanted to come to NJ.

A qualifying offer amount is not a minimum AAV for long-term AAV.
It does not mean he will get $10m+ on any deal.

His ask was $9m...so he will likely come in somewhere in the 8's

No, a qualifying offer is not the min AAV for a long term. It is however, the min AAV for a 1-year keep him a RFA deal. If they decide not to tender him the qualifying offer then he would become a UFA and be able to sign anywhere. If they both sign it, then at minimum, he would stay in NJ at the qualifying offer rate. They can always work out a different deal but Timo can also bet on himself and just take the 1-year deal.

I wonder if there is a something slightly broken about the system. Have we ever seen a 24 yr old AHL player with no NHL experience become a star. As I say I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on him though.

It won’t be 1-year $10m as they can take him to team-elected arb in first window and knock it down. Regardless, he wanted to be here, he wants to extend here. There is nothing that indicates otherwise.

The offensive production will be similar to Kubalik, the defense similar to Copp. Can play W or C. And is 24 years old.

Kubalik -- Larkin -- Raymond
Sharangovich -- Copp -- Perron
Rasmussen -- Kasper -- Berggren
Fabbri/Mazur -- Veleno -- Zadina

Except for the inconvenient fact that he hasnt...

Kubalik is likely a 3rd liner for us already, we wouldn’t pay an early 2nd and 3rd for another third liner

Okay…the perhaps

Sharangovich -- Larkin -- Raymond
Fabbri -- Copp -- Perron
Kubalik -- Kasper -- Berggren
Rasmussen -- Veleno -- Zadina

Ras would be in a spot over Yegor. Fabbri isn't a guarantee to ever play again given his knee injuries.

You took the previous comment and pushed Ras down more. I'd put him on the first line over Yegor, but he fits best on line 2 imo

Kubalik - Larkin - Perron (I'd put Ray here, but Lalonde put Perron here a lot last year so I'll assume it stays that way)
Rasmussen - Copp - Raymond
Yegor - Kasper - Berggren
Whoever - Veleno - Zadina

And again. Not opposed to Yegor, but not for that price.

Prices can change. May be a ton of forwards on market this year, so they all may come cheaply.

Appears Wings need a 1LW and 2C to fill up that roster. Maybe sign the other Ryan O’Reilly (OGROR) and trade for Cat.

Okay…the perhaps

Sharangovich -- Larkin -- Raymond
Fabbri -- Copp -- Perron
Kubalik -- Kasper -- Berggren
Rasmussen -- Veleno -- Zadina

We definitely need another scorer (whether they're a winger or a center doesn't matter to me), and there seem to be lots of options through trade maybe.

Copp likely stays 2C for next year until Kasper is ready, and maybe he jumps him next year or maybe it takes a little while.

Scoring winger is definitely our most pressing need right now though, yeaj

Grab two scoring options at #9 and #17.
Pick up guy like Duclair or DeBrusk that can be flipped if things go south.

(and always buy wingers last).

Sure

Brandon Montour
Devon Toews
Jonas Siegenthaler

Usually guys who were blocked

He is a little untested in that he hasn't played in NHL (been blocked in NJ). But he is a good prospect.

Hockey Prospecting (Byron Bader) has the following as top prospects (ranked on probability of turning into a star).

1. Luke Hughes 90%
2. Brandt Clarke 88%
3. Logan Cooley 85%
4. Simon Nemec 83%
5. Kevin Korchinski 78%

6. Olen Zellweger 78%
7. Reilly Walsh 76% < ----
8. Lane Hutson 74%
9. Shane Wright 62%
10. Lukas Reichel 56%

11. Denton Mateychuk 53%
12. Michael Benning 49%
13. Jordan Dumais 46%
14. Danila Yurov 46%
15. Ryan Ufko 42%

Rasmus Sandin was
Nils Lundkvist was at 34% last year when he was dealt for a 1st rounder.
David Rundblad was at 32% when he was dealt for 1st rounder.
Alex Romanov was in single digits.

Not that this one metric is say-all, be-all, end-all...but only asking for a 3rd here