What I would do to the Blue Jackets as a non-Blue Jackets fan
Another “What I would do” post. First and foremost remember I am a 3rd party observer and die-hard fans might disagree with what I say.
The Blue Jackets are a really interesting team because they seemed destined to be a team that would be around the bottom of the standings for a while but with the signing of Gaudreau last season along with holding onto Jenner this deadline, it looks like they want to make a bit of a push to be higher in the standings rather than lower. Also, their GM mentioned their willingness to trade LA’s first rounder for a defenceman in return that can play now.
Question Marks:
- Players rumoured to be on the market at the previous deadline. I’m talking Roslovic, Peeke, and Jenner. Who would the team look to keep? Jenner is their Captain and was their leading goal scorer last year, but he was playing above his role and would net a lot of assets if sold now. Roslovic is a hometown kid but also is playing above where he should be and the team seems to have lost patience with him, see healthy scratches down the stretch. And with Jiricek and Ceulemans coming in on the right side is Peeke a 3RD luxury the team needs?
- Who is going to play centre? Is it worth trying to sign or trade for a guy to fill out that #1 spot? Or should they run it back with the group they had last year? Or even give some of the kids a chance in bigger minutes? Is the #3 pick potentially in play for a trade?
- Questions on the left side of the defence. Even with the young kids coming up they’ll need to add to the top 4 on the left side. Could LA’s pick be in play for a potential young top 4 LD?
Trades:
- The first move I made was trading Roslovic to Vancouver. This is a move that was rumoured to have been talked about at the deadline. (Obviously, this means Vancouver has dumped some salary in another trade which has been rumoured). Roslovic is just too hit or miss for the role he has been in Columbus. He isn’t the guy who can play top 2C, he had 6 different stretches of 4 game pointless streaks, sometimes he looks apathetic out there, and sometimes he’s dynamic. If he was cemented into 3C on a team like Vancouver he’d excel, he could even fight to be on the PP which would really work out well for his skill set. It’s just time for a fresh start. I looked at the Nyquist trade last year for value, he netted a 5th. Centre is a more premium position so I bumped it up to a 4th and with the minor retention I added in 2 unsigned Van prospects, Kunz is definitely the highlight and his ability to play any forward position will be valuable in the CBJ system.
- I’ll talk about the Peeke trade next because it is pretty minor considering the other trade. Peeke is not gonna have a spot next year, imo. I’d run Gudbranson/Boqvist/Jiricek, heck I’d even run Ceulemans before Peeke. But Peeke is a serviceable defensive dman, I could see a couple of teams trading for him but I mainly looked at NYI, NJ, and FLA, all because of the players they may lose in FA (Mayfield, Severson, and Gudas) they’ll all have holes to fill out on their bottom pairing RD and are all contenders. I chose FLA because they have the most cap space and Gudas is the most similar gameplay style to Peeke (at least I think). FLA also has the most cap and Peeke is slightly overpaid given his role. Value wise I think he’s worth a 3rd given deals that were made at the deadline last year, a younger shutdown dman. So I added a 4 next year, 6 this year, and an unsigned prospect from FLA. Vilmanis has good size and LW is a relative position of depth for FLA, and one of weakness for CBJ.
- Lindholm/Hanifin: There have been a lot of rumours linking two players who will likely be moved out of Calgary with their old teammate Johnny Gaudreau in Columbus. It's even a rumour that has been floated around in the Calgary media as of late. Some Calgary fans have proposed the 3rd pick in a 1 for 1 swap for Lindholm….. That quite frankly is delusional. As I explained in my Calgary thread, the comparison for Lindholm is the Horvat trade. Calgary should get a 1st and a top prospect in return, and a player who can play now. They get LA’s 1st, and I added Sillinger to this trade because I feel like he represents the other two spots. He’s a GREAT young player who still has a lot of untapped potential, he was the #12 pick a couple of years ago. And adding a young centre is what Calgary is looking to add. Add in a 3rd there and that puts the value over the top. So they trade is basically #22, Sillinger, and #80 for Lindholm. Then building off Kekäläinen’s goal of adding a younger top 4 LD, I have them trading for Hanifin as well. Hanifin’s value is similar to that of Gavrikov this last year, a 1st and a 3rd. But one thing Kevin Conroy mentioned was getting younger players as potential reclamation projects. Bemström is someone who looks to need a fresh start but is a solid top 9 winger and is coming off a career year. Bean, although he only played 14 games last year, was coming off a career year in 21-22 and can fill in on either side of the D for Calgary. If anything Bean to Hanifin is a minor downgrade but you don’t need Hanifin at 3LD, and is also a pending RFA. Bean a former 1st is a pending RFA and fits in well in Calgary. Adding a 2nd and a 3rd and Jordan Dumais who put up 140 in 64 in his D+1 year in the Q, the value is fair. This entire trade is under the presumption Hanifin waives to go to Columbus and they both sign extensions like Horvat.
DRAFT:
#3: Leo Carlsson C (Big, Strong, Smart Centre, between him and Michkov, they need C)
#34: Andrew Cristall LW (Fast playmaking smaller forward, reminds me of Gaudreau)
#66: Trey Augustine G (Top 3 Goalie prospects, they need to solidify that position)
#98: Easton Cowan C (Two-way bigger framed centre, will play 2-3 overage in OHL)
#105: Cam Squires RW (Two-way playmaking RW underrated release, needs to fill out)
#114: Carter Sotheran RD (Young physical defensive dman, could be a late-round steal)
#156: Yegor Zavragin G (Boom or bust 17yr old Russian goalie, .930/.920 at 16/17 in MHL)
#189: Jiri Felcman C (6’4” 190lbs. Big, young, boom/bust)
#194: Will Vote RW (Small RW committed to Boston College, expect him to play 3+ there)
RFA’s:
- Olivier: I really like the physicality he can bring, I also think the Kuraly-Jenner-Olivier line is a dream checking bottom six line that could put up surprising goal totals.
- Christansen/Bjork depth defensemen retained to cheap deals. I could see either starting as the 7th D. Really just a stop-gap before all the young kids are ready next year.
UFA’s:
- I didn’t choose to bring anyone back. Bayreuther from all accounts I’ve read was awful when he got in I’d like to see a younger guy get the experience of the time he was given. The goalies you could sign or not sign, AHL depth is needed but I don’t like either option of CBJ’s goalies. Sign anyone to one or two-year AHL deals.
Extensions:
- Have to sign Lindholm and Hanifi to 7x7mil and 7x6.5mil respectively. That’s almost an unofficial condition of the trade and very similar to what happened with Horvat in NYI, something needs to happen “under the table” to make that deal and give Columbus security.
Let me know what you think and what you’d change.
Player evaluations from jacketscannon.com , Columbus fans' thoughts on this page and their articles?
I respect the effort you put into this ACGM. If the flames (Craig Conroy) decide to trade Lindholm and can't fill the 1C slot, they would have to rebuild. You can't have Kadri and Backlund as your 1/2 C combo and be competitive. If that's the case, they would be taking offers on Hanifin, Toffoli, Backlund...etc. They could get more for Hanifin on the open market, so I don't see part deux happening.
Very clearly thought out and researched, so heavy props for that. Especially since it sounds like you've done multiple of these, I'm sure that's a fair bit of time sink.
Right now, I don't wanna go with a crazy long reply like I sometimes do, so I'm not gonna dwell a ton on what I like, since that's generally more self explanatory, but rattling off quickly in bullet points
* Hanifin (extended) is a big target for me if they can get him
* Voronkov in the lineup shows you did your research
* All pending RFA/UFA signings I like
* Like the moves for the most part
Criticisms (gonna more explained more and take up the bulk of the reply, but I do overwhelmingly like this ACGM for the most part)
* CGY return isn't enough quality.
The total value is maybe there (maybe a bit low), but it can sorta be dumbed down to Sillinger + 23rd + scraps. If Calgary is moving both, they're definitely looking for more substance. Imo Lindholm extended is worth about Sillinger +23 + a throw in or 2. Similar situation for Hanifin, but with Ceulemans instead of Sillinger. Basically, I think the offer for both players has to start with Sillinger/Ceulemans/23rd for them to listen, and then you start getting into details about when else they want, be it more picks, Bemstrom, Bean/Boqvist, ect. Dumais is looking sick right now, but size is always gonna be such a big knock on him that he's not gonna be seen as a major piece in a package, at least for a while imo. All that being said, I would have to do a bit of prospecting with the numbers to see where those Lindholm/Hanifin extensions would leave them in 2,3 years with extending their young guys, but I would be open and willing to give up a package ammended with more value for those 2 extended.
* Carlsson/Roslovic
From everything I've seen, Carlsson isn't expected in the NHL this upcoming year (besides maybe the 10 game tryout), so that's a hole in the lineup. I don't know enough about Kunz or Persson to fairly judge the Roslovic return, but based on the explanation it sounds off. Nyquist was on IR when he was traded last year and not expected back until the playoffs, if at all, so they were fortunate to get a 5th for him imo. I think that Roslovic has a good shot at returning a 2nd at this year's TDL with retention, so given the hole in the lineup without Carlsson and that, I'd rather just keep Roslovic and shoot for a TDL deal with him.
Overall, it looks pretty good minus the tweaks I mentioned. On the CGY trade end, I can't speak to their outlook on it obviously, but I think I was more in the ballpark of a realistic package adding Ceulemans in with the 2 other big pieces you originally had.
Thata alot of garbage for a 1c and a 1d, busts and low picks...
I think the way I explained it was fair for Lindholm, maybe a bit of an underpay for Hanifin.
Sillinger, 22, 80 would likely be the best offer they get and is more than fair. Young controllable top 6 centre. Has already played 2 years at only 20. Had a sophomore slump this year but that happens.
Bean and Bemstrom are both young controllable players that would fit into Calgary's lineup (what they are looking for). Dumais was the MVP of the QMJHL this year in his D+1 year, he is an elite prospect. And a 2nd and 3rd. If anything I could see a conditional 1st being in place of the 2nd but that's a good deal for Calgary. I thought about the trade for Lindholm from Boston and I'd prefer this package, and I think Lindholm is better than Hanifin.
Yea, I agree. Rankings have him anywhere between 6-35, I've noticed in recent rankings and mocks him falling to 20+ so I agree it is a bit of a reach. They could pivot to Lardis/Brindley/But/Rehkopf/Musty. It's more so the need for goal-scoring LW there that I was drafting.
I usually try to do a mock sim when I do every draft prediction and Cristall was there so I took him, that doesn't mean that is what's accurate necessarily. (I have him at 12 in my personal mock).
Very clearly thought out and researched, so heavy props for that. Especially since it sounds like you've done multiple of these, I'm sure that's a fair bit of time sink.
Right now, I don't wanna go with a crazy long reply like I sometimes do, so I'm not gonna dwell a ton on what I like, since that's generally more self explanatory, but rattling off quickly in bullet points
* Hanifin (extended) is a big target for me if they can get him
* Voronkov in the lineup shows you did your research
* All pending RFA/UFA signings I like
* Like the moves for the most part
Criticisms (gonna more explained more and take up the bulk of the reply, but I do overwhelmingly like this ACGM for the most part)
* CGY return isn't enough quality.
The total value is maybe there (maybe a bit low), but it can sorta be dumbed down to Sillinger + 23rd + scraps. If Calgary is moving both, they're definitely looking for more substance. Imo Lindholm extended is worth about Sillinger +23 + a throw in or 2. Similar situation for Hanifin, but with Ceulemans instead of Sillinger. Basically, I think the offer for both players has to start with Sillinger/Ceulemans/23rd for them to listen, and then you start getting into details about when else they want, be it more picks, Bemstrom, Bean/Boqvist, ect. Dumais is looking sick right now, but size is always gonna be such a big knock on him that he's not gonna be seen as a major piece in a package, at least for a while imo. All that being said, I would have to do a bit of prospecting with the numbers to see where those Lindholm/Hanifin extensions would leave them in 2,3 years with extending their young guys, but I would be open and willing to give up a package ammended with more value for those 2 extended.
* Carlsson/Roslovic
From everything I've seen, Carlsson isn't expected in the NHL this upcoming year (besides maybe the 10 game tryout), so that's a hole in the lineup. I don't know enough about Kunz or Persson to fairly judge the Roslovic return, but based on the explanation it sounds off. Nyquist was on IR when he was traded last year and not expected back until the playoffs, if at all, so they were fortunate to get a 5th for him imo. I think that Roslovic has a good shot at returning a 2nd at this year's TDL with retention, so given the hole in the lineup without Carlsson and that, I'd rather just keep Roslovic and shoot for a TDL deal with him.
Overall, it looks pretty good minus the tweaks I mentioned. On the CGY trade end, I can't speak to their outlook on it obviously, but I think I was more in the ballpark of a realistic package adding Ceulemans in with the 2 other big pieces you originally had.
Hey, thanks for the detailed response!
I wanted to add Ceulemans initially but was concerned it might be viewed as a bit of an overpay by Columbus fans. He's someone the Flames would love though, dynamic young RD prospect, from the Prairies and played in the AJHL.
I really like Dumais though, aside from the size ofc. With his production this year though he grades as a 1st round pick calibre prospect and an easier move for Columbus, that's why I substituted him in, I think I'd probably put a lottery conditioned 1st in place of the 2nd before I switch Dumais for Ceulemans.
In my opinion, if your gonna target a trade for him at the TDL it's better to trade now as teams are more flexible and your retention will be less. I think regardless I might've underpaid him, I like Kunz though and would rather have him and a 4th than a 3rd, Persson was a RD prospect throw-in unlikely to be anything. Kunz played the last 2 seasons at UND and although he doesn't have much offensive upside (43 in 50 in USHL), he has great hockey sense/IQ and a good enough shot. He has the type of work ethic and adaptability to understand to make the NHL he needs to play a certain way for the bottom six. I don't think Roslovic nets more than a 3rd outright even retained half at the deadline. I'd rather have a 4th this year than 3rd next with this class. Another commenter mentioned adding Peeke to the Vancouver trade, which I thought about, that could net more value. Ultimately too much depended on how Vancouver dumps their cap this off-season, if they net a 2nd someway I could see Peeke/Roslovic going for a 2nd++ to Van
Plus even if Carlsson doesn't play full time in the NHL I could see them running Lindholm/Jenner/Voronkov/Kuraly. Move the 4th line I have to 3rd and put Robinson on the left side for Robinson-Kuraly-Olivier 4th line. Or find a spot fro Foudy he was a major question mark for me.
I’m sure Van would add a little more value and take peeke with roslovic
I considered it. Ultimately I was just doing it from the CBJ perspective, when I do Vancouver I could go in more depth. If they can get say 19 and 55 for 11 and OEL I could see them sending 55 and prospects for Roslovic/Peeke. Just too many factors on their end. But I love the idea of adding both to Van, the depth of those moves is what they need.
curious on why you have Cristall fall to the second round
That may have been a bit of an oversight on my part. That was based on some recent ranking I saw having him fall to 20+ I also did a mock and he was still there so I took him. I've also heard rumours of more defensemen going than we expect, and higher than we expect so that kind of came into play there. Last year I had Firkus/Beck as 1st round grades but they fell out of the first (likely cuz of size or other reasons), Cristall is smaller like Firkus, and we also saw teams like Edmonton reach on bigger forwards at the end of the 1st, drafting for size first. So it was just a thought.
Generally, in terms of player rankings, I tend to put more stock into McKenzie/Button than I do other website rankings. Button (although he is a clown sometimes) had him at 35 so I didn't think it was entirely impossible. With that being said I have Cristall at 13 in my personal mock/rankings and don't see him falling past 15 unless something really unexpected happens.
Still, if Cristall isn't there it is more about needing a goal-scoring LW. They could pivot to Lardis/Brindley/But/Rehkopf/Musty. It's more so the need for goal-scoring LW there that I was drafting.
My personal ranking favours defensemen a lot higher than most public rankings do, I have between 7-8 going in the 1st, so we'll see how accurate I am. I could be really **** at this lol
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