Intersting Marner trade from a Leafs fan - impact - CapFriendly

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Intersting Marner trade from a Leafs fan - impact

Created by: GoCanes

Team: 2023-24 Carolina Hurricanes

Initial Creation Date: Jun. 20, 2023

Published: Jun. 20, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

- I saw this proposed by a Leafs fan and initially dismissed it
- Upon further review, it is interesting as the Canes seem to be "in" on elite level players when available
1) Canes take on ~$5 million more in cap space this year (~$12m vs ~$7m) which is no problem
2) The cap hit next year and beyond could be fairly similar as Pesce and Necas will likely be at ~$6-$7m each after next season
3) Marner is by far the top player in this deal
4) Necas is really good and young, but he's not going to be cheap any more after this year
5) If Pesce decides not to agree to a reasonable extension then I'm not sure the Canes could do much better than this
6) We'd still have all our draft picks for future depth and/or to add to this team - in this example also adding TK for picks/prospects
7) It opens an opportunity for Morrow to come in and potentially play in the top 4 at the end of this season and beyond
- that top 9 is both dangerous and good defensively
- Drury/Rees play until Patches is ready
- Still cap space and picks/prospects available to add at the deadline

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Coghlan, Dylan		1	$800,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Andersen, Frederik	2	$4,000,000
Raanta, Antti	1	$2,000,000
Staal, Jordan	2	$3,250,000
Lajoie, Maxime	1	$800,000
Pacioretty, Max	1	$2,000,000
Soucy, Carson	3	$3,000,000
Acciari, Noel	2	$1,500,000

Trades

CAR

TOR

CAR

Konecny, Travis

PHI

Ponomarev, Vasili
2023 1st round pick (CAR)
2024 2nd round pick (PHI)

Additional Details:

could add another prospect or pick

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
21	$83,500,000	$82,257,417	$450,000	$500,000	$1,242,583

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Svechnikov, Andrei $7,750,000$7,750,000 LW, RW UFA - 6	Aho, Sebastian $8,460,250$8,460,250 C UFA - 1	Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000$10,903,000 RW NMC UFA - 2
Pacioretty, Max $2,000,000$2,000,000 LW UFA - 1	Kotkaniemi, Jesperi $4,820,000$4,820,000 C UFA - 7	Konecny, Travis $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Teräväinen, Teuvo $5,400,000$5,400,000 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 1	Staal, Jordan $3,250,000$3,250,000 C, LW UFA - 4	Jarvis, Seth $894,167$894,167 ($500,000$500K) RW RFA - 1
Martinook, Jordan $1,800,000$1,800,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Acciari, Noel $1,500,000$1,500,000 C, RW UFA - 3	Noesen, Stefan $762,500$762,500 LW, RW UFA - 1
	Drury, Jack $925,000$925,000 C RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Slavin, Jaccob $5,300,000$5,300,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2	Burns, Brent $5,280,000$5,280,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Andersen, Frederik $4,000,000$4,000,000 G UFA - 2
Skjei, Brady $5,250,000$5,250,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 1	Chatfield, Jalen $762,500$762,500 RD UFA - 1	Raanta, Antti $2,000,000$2,000,000 G UFA - 1
Soucy, Carson $3,000,000$3,000,000 LD/RD UFA - 3	Liljegren, Timothy $1,400,000$1,400,000 RD RFA - 1

Taxi Squad
Kochetkov, Pyotr $2,000,000$2,000,000 ($850,000$850K$850,000$850K) G UFA - 4
Lajoie, Maxime $800,000$800,000 ($0$0$0$0) LD RFA - 1
Rees, Jamieson $839,167$839,167 ($0$0$0$0) C RFA - 1
Coghlan, Dylan $800,000$800,000 ($0$0$0$0) RD RFA - 1

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:10 p.m.

erh1991

LGRW

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 405

Likes: 112

lol

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:11 p.m.

GMDannyB

Danny B is here

Joined: Jun. 2023

Posts: 5,063

Likes: 1,969

I don’t see a world where the Flyers trade TK to a division rival for any less than 1 of their top prospects which is Morrow or Nikishin so anything less isn’t enough

BruinsWoahWoah liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:12 p.m.

python3504

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 1,498

Likes: 458

The only thing is this doesnt make the leafs any tougher to play against.

mferraro liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:13 p.m.

vikhodush

Joined: May 2017

Posts: 6,694

Likes: 3,362

Quoting: erh1991

lol

Never understood responses like this. Disagree all you want but what’s the point of an lol response with nothing else attached to it? Genuinely curious since the poster clearly seems to be doing a thought experiment he saw elsewhere and is looking for feedback.

capsfan2121 liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:14 p.m.

TheOtherAuston

Joined: Dec. 2019

Posts: 2,015

Likes: 434

The leafs fan was smoking meth, we give up a cheap good Dman and Marner for an expiring #3/#4 Dman that is going to be making much more than liljegren even once he gets his raise and we downgrade substantially to necas who will cost to resign likely 6-7M so in the end leafs end up with likely the same cap hit if they can sign pesce and lose the best player in the deal by far and don't get a huge upgrade on defense.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:15 p.m.

MitchMafia

Joined: Jun. 2023

Posts: 522

Likes: 244

Canes would have to add (something significant) imo to make this deal fair. Pesce > Liligren but Lili is younger, cheaper and semi cost controlled (RFA). Marner >> Necas, but Necas is younger, cheaper and semi cost controlled (RFA). Marner also has the extra year left on deal. Interesting but can’t see the Leafs doing this

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:15 p.m.

erh1991

LGRW

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 405

Likes: 112

Quoting: vikhodush

LOL
INFORMAL
exclamation
used to draw attention to a joke or amusing statement, or to express amusement.
"I love how you said “coffee is not my cup of tea.” LOL!"
verb
laugh audibly or be amused.
"I literally LOL'd when the updates popped up"

i literally loled when i saw the toronto trade

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:15 p.m.

GoCanes

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 155

Likes: 33

Quoting: GMDannyB

I don’t see a world where the Flyers trade TK to a division rival for any less than 1 of their top prospects which is Morrow or Nikishin so anything less isn’t enough

Ok, replace TK with any of the solid wingers available with term (Schmaltz, Hall, etc...). Or add another pick/prospect. Mainly curious about the Marner impact.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:17 p.m.

GoCanes

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 155

Likes: 33

Quoting: erh1991

To be clear... not my trade. It was proposed by a leafs fan and supported by some leafs fans. Most Marner to Canes trades are ridiculous from a Carolina perspective. This one made me pause.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:18 p.m.

#10

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,790

Likes: 22,820

As a Leaf fan here is my analysis. Think the Leafs win the Necas/Marner swap. About 30 points difference in production but Necas is much cheaper and will be on his next contract. So the Leafs gain cap an years of control. But the Liljegren/Pesce I'm not fond. of. Liljegren is a NHL Dman, cheaper for a year and years of control over upcoming UFA Pesce.
So it might be pretty fair deal on paper, but wondering if any team would do the deal. But a good thought on the trade.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:18 p.m.

#11

erh1991

LGRW

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 405

Likes: 112

Quoting: GoCanes

To be clear... not my trade. It was proposed by a leafs fan and supported by some leafs fans. Most Marner to Canes trades are ridiculous from a Carolina perspective. This one made me pause.

clear as day. still makes me laugh. made me pause too

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:22 p.m.

#12

Caniac555

Hurricane Waddell

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 8,734

Likes: 3,601

What happens when Marner walks in two years?

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:27 p.m.

#13

GoCanes

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 155

Likes: 33

Quoting: palhal

I agree... I think it's a pretty reasonable trade if Toronto wants to break up the core 4 and Carolina doesn't like the value of the extension that Pesce is seeking. And I think both of those scenarios are possible. I will state that you don't have to like the Pesce/Liljegren piece. But you are right, Liljegren is an NHL Dman. Pesce is a great shut down NHL Dman. Pesce will be far superior to Liljegren for at least the next 3-4 years. Liljegren is a bottom pair Dman. Pesce is the #1 shut down Dman on many NHL rosters. You don't have to like the economics of it, but lets not pretend the Leafs wouldn't do Liljegren plus picks for Pesce straight up (minus any cap ramifications).

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:28 p.m.

#14

GoCanes

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 155

Likes: 33

Edited Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:34 p.m.

Quoting: Caniac555

What happens when Marner walks in two years?

Why do you automatically assume he'd walk in 2 years? Couldn't you say that about any good player we acquire with term? Also, what makes you assume Necas is here 2-3 years from now? He is going to get expensive as well and I'd bet he'd like to test UFA. I find it incredibly unlikely that the Canes will be able to sign a top tier player with 5+ years left on a deal. And the Canes don't do rentals. I think getting 2-3 years of term for a player is about as good as it gets.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:38 p.m.

#15

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,790

Likes: 22,820

Quoting: GoCanes

But you and so many others always think just because upcoming UFA Pesce is going to superior to Lilijegren for 3 or 4 years., how does help the Leafs? Pesce is likely just one year a Leaf. Please no silliness about extensions. Similar to Marner. Canes can't depend on Marner being a Cane for more than two years.
I don't see the Leafs doing Pesce for Lilijgren straight up never mind the having to add picks.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:44 p.m.

#16

GoCanes

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 155

Likes: 33

Quoting: palhal

Interesting... I assumed this trade would come with a Pesce extension in place (or at least an agreement to the framework). I agree, this deal never happens without a Pesce extension. That is a must.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:45 p.m.

#17

Herb_Brooks

Joined: Feb. 2023

Posts: 2,460

Likes: 1,021

Quoting: Caniac555

What happens when Marner walks in two years?

then the canes have to evaluate their team because if they are good why would he walk?

GoCanes liked this.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 1:51 p.m.

#18

GoCanes

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 155

Likes: 33

Quoting: Herb_Brooks

then the canes have to evaluate their team because if they are good why would he walk?

And his contract is already super pricey... If they can afford his ~$11m contract in 2 years then they certainly can extend him at ~$12m or whatever the number might be with the cap increase.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 2:05 p.m.

#19

Caniac555

Hurricane Waddell

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 8,734

Likes: 3,601

{insert crappy small market non traditional comment here}.

The canes always evaluate their team and the reality is they must wisely use and spend the assets they have. It’s the reason why making this trade for a player with only 2 years is a hard challenge.

It’d be more plausible to trade for Nylander with a chance to talk contract extension after July 1 vs Marner.

Quoting: Herb_Brooks

then the canes have to evaluate their team because if they are good why would he walk?

Jun. 20, 2023 at 2:08 p.m.

#20

Caniac555

Hurricane Waddell

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 8,734

Likes: 3,601

You have to assume that is the case when you’re evaluating a trade like this, the same way you are assuming Pesce walks away from the Canes after this year if he’s not traded.

We are all on a website talking hockey…

Quoting: GoCanes

Jun. 20, 2023 at 2:37 p.m.

#21

GoCanes

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 155

Likes: 33

Quoting: Caniac555

So you'd be more comfortable trading for Nylander who is on an expiring contract and due a raise and to negotiate after 7/1 vs Marner who has 2 years left and likely won't command a substantial raise? Personally, I don't understand that logic.

Jun. 20, 2023 at 2:39 p.m.

#22

ecupirate07

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 9,282

Likes: 2,971

Marner has no control so this is a bad deal for the Canes.
Lilj would need to be flipped because he doesn’t fit our defensive profile

Jun. 20, 2023 at 2:55 p.m.

#23

Herb_Brooks

Joined: Feb. 2023

Posts: 2,460

Likes: 1,021

Quoting: Caniac555

I didnt say anything about a small market lol

Jun. 20, 2023 at 2:57 p.m.

#24

GoCanes

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 155

Likes: 33

Quoting: ecupirate07

Marner has no control so this is a bad deal for the Canes.
Lilj would need to be flipped because he doesn’t fit our defensive profile

Neither does Aho... should we go ahead and trade him too?

Jun. 20, 2023 at 3:05 p.m.

#25

ecupirate07

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 9,282

Likes: 2,971

Quoting: GoCanes

Neither does Aho... should we go ahead and trade him too?

Aho can be re-signed this offseason. Also this is a false equivalency since we aren’t trading assets for Aho

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