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Carolina Hurricanes signed Sebastian Aho (8 Years / $9,750,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Jul. 26, 2023 at 2:57 p.m.
#51
Bedard23
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Quoting: mv21227
Get ready for those pictures of Bedard in Canucks pyjamas in 7 years when he signs here as a UFA

/s but still have a tiny bit of hope it happens one day


Quoting: Prime_Jimbo
Kraken jersey in the mail then


Was joking around because Petty will probably resign with Vancouver but considering how bad Vancouver has been run, nothing is impossible
Jul. 26, 2023 at 3:30 p.m.
#52
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Quoting: budgeteam
The offer sheet from Montreal ironically helped Carolina in the long run. The Hurricanes were refusing to budge from an 8 year deal when Montreal signed Ago at 5. Had Aho signed for 8, he would not have been that much cheaper than what he got at 5, but his contract would have expired 3 years later. 3 years from now, with the cap projected to increase, Aho might be a 12-14 million dollar player. Who knows.


All’s well that ends well, but it could have easily gone the other way. Having the possibility of losing him as a UFA at age 26 hanging over our heads for the last 4 years was pretty scary for us Caniacs. Teams that match offer sheets often trade the player the next summer, so I was worried about that too (though I think the way the contract was structured would have made such a move very costly). I actually had a dream around that time that they traded him for Dylan Larkin.

That offer sheet was weird. I got the feeling Aho’s agent just used Montreal to get the contract he wanted from Carolina, knowing full well that they’d match it, but I don’t understand why Montreal went along with it. They must have owed the agent a favour. They didn’t even seem to be trying to give Carolina a reason not to match.
Jul. 26, 2023 at 4:58 p.m.
#53
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A bit of an overpay 9mil should have been tops.... averages 70 points
Jul. 26, 2023 at 5:06 p.m.
#54
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Good deal for both sides. Congrats Aho and Carolina.
Jul. 26, 2023 at 5:07 p.m.
#55
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He slipped a bit last year, but that's the only downside to this contract. Easy win for the team.
Jul. 26, 2023 at 5:22 p.m.
#56
Leafs going to Leafs
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There goes any hope of getting Nylander under 10
Jul. 26, 2023 at 5:38 p.m.
#57
Sadness
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Great value
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Jul. 26, 2023 at 6:07 p.m.
#58
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I love how [team] fans dip in to every signing thread to make it about [team].
Jul. 26, 2023 at 6:14 p.m.
#59
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Good contract for a rock-steady, two-way center. In a lot of systems, where he would be deployed a offense-first line-driver, he is probably a 90-point center.
Jul. 26, 2023 at 10:42 p.m.
#60
JT Miller for Hart
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Solid. Kinda sad he didn't get to explore FA though. Was pretty hopeful he'd sign with the Preds.(I know it was probably never going to happen, but it's fun to think about). He's a good #1C but I can't see him making that much more in FA since he's not exactly that flashy 90+ pts guy.
Jul. 26, 2023 at 11:26 p.m.
#61
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Good deal.
Jul. 26, 2023 at 11:33 p.m.
#62
Bedard23
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
There goes any hope of getting Nylander under 10


Aho>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Nylander
Jul. 27, 2023 at 6:03 a.m.
#63
ACGM
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Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan
Don’t see how Nylander can still say he’s worth over 10M after this signing.


It will Be tough he is 2 years older not a center and is not as consistent with his effort. Nylander's only argue points are that he has similar numbers with a touch more in production in the last 2 years and is mainly a second line player. Its tough and I wouldn't agree but he could argue he'd get more points as a 1st line winger instead of a second line winger.
Jul. 27, 2023 at 6:07 a.m.
#64
ACGM
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Good Contract will be great in 3 years when the cap is up 10 million. It would be slightly high for his production but he has such a great defensive game and really drives the team at times so he has more then just point production to push forward his value. Not an outstanding steal but it could be in the middle 3 years of the contract.
Jul. 27, 2023 at 8:32 a.m.
#65
Leafs going to Leafs
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Quoting: IconicHawk
Aho>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Nylander


What you think is irrelevant in Nylander negotiations...It's what Nylander and Treliving thinks... And I'm willing to bet that Nylander's thinking: "This dude, who's not scored 40 unlike me, is making nearly 10... I can now raise my asking price."
Jul. 27, 2023 at 12:07 p.m.
#66
ButIActLikeIDid
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Quoting: sammy1414
A bit of an overpay 9mil should have been tops.... averages 70 points


With that logic Brayden Point is an overpay.
Jul. 27, 2023 at 2:11 p.m.
#67
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
What you think is irrelevant in Nylander negotiations...It's what Nylander and Treliving thinks... And I'm willing to bet that Nylander's thinking: "This dude, who's not scored 40 unlike me, is making nearly 10... I can now raise my asking price."


I’m sure Nylander will make that argument, but I don’t think Aho is a good comparable for him because they’re different types of players and they play different positions. If Nylander was on Carolina, they wouldn’t pay him more than Aho. Incidentally, Aho would have scored 40 goals in 2019-20 if they hadn’t cancelled the last 12 games, and he’s had more 35 goal seasons (3) than Nylander (1).

I think a better comparable for Nylander is Timo Meier, who just signed for 8x$8.8M. They’re the same age (Nylander is 6 months older), they play the same position, and both are coming off their first 40-goal season. Both have had some ups and downs through their careers, but they’ve been better and more consistent over the last two seasons. They score goals at a similar rate, but Nylander puts up more assists. Meier is coming off an unimpressive playoff performance, his first since 2019, while Nylander’s playoff production has been fairly consistent over the last 4 years and similar to what he does in the regular season.

To me that says Nylander should be paid at least as much as Meier, but probably not a lot more. He has one year left on his current contract at $6M, so a 7x$9.2M extension starting next year would be equal to Meier’s 8x$8.8M that starts now (not considering present value). I’m thinking 7x$9.4M would be about right. If he wants $10M to stay in Toronto because taxes are high in Ontario, he could argue that and Toronto management will have to decide if they want to overpay their players to offset the taxes, but I don’t think he can argue he’s worth $10M based on his performance.
Jul. 27, 2023 at 6:31 p.m.
#68
Leafs going to Leafs
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Quoting: jr400
I’m sure Nylander will make that argument, but I don’t think Aho is a good comparable for him because they’re different types of players and they play different positions. If Nylander was on Carolina, they wouldn’t pay him more than Aho. Incidentally, Aho would have scored 40 goals in 2019-20 if they hadn’t cancelled the last 12 games, and he’s had more 35 goal seasons (3) than Nylander (1).

I think a better comparable for Nylander is Timo Meier, who just signed for 8x$8.8M. They’re the same age (Nylander is 6 months older), they play the same position, and both are coming off their first 40-goal season. Both have had some ups and downs through their careers, but they’ve been better and more consistent over the last two seasons. They score goals at a similar rate, but Nylander puts up more assists. Meier is coming off an unimpressive playoff performance, his first since 2019, while Nylander’s playoff production has been fairly consistent over the last 4 years and similar to what he does in the regular season.

To me that says Nylander should be paid at least as much as Meier, but probably not a lot more. He has one year left on his current contract at $6M, so a 7x$9.2M extension starting next year would be equal to Meier’s 8x$8.8M that starts now (not considering present value). I’m thinking 7x$9.4M would be about right. If he wants $10M to stay in Toronto because taxes are high in Ontario, he could argue that and Toronto management will have to decide if they want to overpay their players to offset the taxes, but I don’t think he can argue he’s worth $10M based on his performance.


Not reading all paragraphs bc don't have that much time so thanks or no thanks... But I did read the 1st sentence and that's not how Nylander view it... He originally wanted 8 but after PLD signed his contract... it jumped to 10... And he does view himself as being better than Aho meaning that his number prob. jumped again, making it harder for the Leafs to sign him... Also read the last sentence and you're wrong about the taxes part... First, Toronto can pay via an account off shores, getting around the taxi loopholes and 2nd, other teams (notably the state of Florida), tax players on games that they've played in that state as a condition to help fund the arena... meaning that playing in Canada isn't making you cut so much more than the US as others may think
Jul. 28, 2023 at 7:09 p.m.
#69
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Quoting: CSStrowbridge
He slipped a bit last year, but that's the only downside to this contract. Easy win for the team.


Played mostly with Jarvis and Turbo. Sophomore slump and and Teuvo played hurt.
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Jul. 28, 2023 at 7:12 p.m.
#70
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Nylander wanted 8? When? Were you in the room?
Jul. 29, 2023 at 7:45 a.m.
#71
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
Not reading all paragraphs bc don't have that much time so thanks or no thanks... But I did read the 1st sentence and that's not how Nylander view it... He originally wanted 8 but after PLD signed his contract... it jumped to 10... And he does view himself as being better than Aho meaning that his number prob. jumped again, making it harder for the Leafs to sign him...


I agree that how Nylander views it is more relevant than how I view it, but to get the deal he wants, he'll have to find a GM who agrees with him, and I think the GMs are thinking more like me.

I do agree that Nylander is a better player than Dubois, but Dubois is not a good comparable because he plays centre and he's two years younger than Nylander. Those are the two main reasons Dubois got such a big contract, and neither of them apply to Nylander. Dubois signing an 8-year contract that kicks in immediately is like Nylander signing a 5-year extension, so Dubois's AAV could be relevant if that's the term Nylander wants, but centres are generally considered more valuable than wingers, so you need to subtract something for that.

His best bet would be to find a similar aged winger to compare himself to who makes more than Meier, or who makes a little less than Meier but was clearly not as good as Nylander when he signed. Unless he thinks he's in the same class as Pastrnak, Forsberg is probably the next closest, but you can't count the season he just had because he signed before that. Same with Gaudreau -- Nylander put up better numbers than him last season but Gaudreau was coming off a 115-point season when he signed, so it would be difficult to argue him as a comparable. If he wants $10M I think he'll have to wait and bet on having a year that's even better than last season.
Jul. 29, 2023 at 8:33 a.m.
#72
Leafs going to Leafs
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Quoting: jr400
I agree that how Nylander views it is more relevant than how I view it, but to get the deal he wants, he'll have to find a GM who agrees with him, and I think the GMs are thinking more like me.

I do agree that Nylander is a better player than Dubois, but Dubois is not a good comparable because he plays centre and he's two years younger than Nylander. Those are the two main reasons Dubois got such a big contract, and neither of them apply to Nylander. Dubois signing an 8-year contract that kicks in immediately is like Nylander signing a 5-year extension, so Dubois's AAV could be relevant if that's the term Nylander wants, but centres are generally considered more valuable than wingers, so you need to subtract something for that.

His best bet would be to find a similar aged winger to compare himself to who makes more than Meier, or who makes a little less than Meier but was clearly not as good as Nylander when he signed. Unless he thinks he's in the same class as Pastrnak, Forsberg is probably the next closest, but you can't count the season he just had because he signed before that. Same with Gaudreau -- Nylander put up better numbers than him last season but Gaudreau was coming off a 115-point season when he signed, so it would be difficult to argue him as a comparable. If he wants $10M I think he'll have to wait and bet on having a year that's even better than last season.


But that's not how Nylander views it lol... It was so long ago that I can't find an insider to quote on but Nylander's agent used the Dubois contract to jump bc they view Nylander as the better player...

Gaudreau and Forsbger aren't good comparable to Nylander though... At the time they signed, the cap wasn't about to spike like it is now... Which is why neither side will sign for what they sign bc of those 2 contracts
Jul. 29, 2023 at 5:54 p.m.
#73
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
But that's not how Nylander views it lol... It was so long ago that I can't find an insider to quote on but Nylander's agent used the Dubois contract to jump bc they view Nylander as the better player...


I would expect his agent to say that – he wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t – but being better than Dubois doesn’t necessarily make Nylander worth $10M. If that’s his magic number, he’ll probably have to wait. If he continues to improve and puts up better numbers next season, he’ll have a much stronger case, but Toronto, which is the only team that can sign him before next summer, already has three players over $10M. Even if they think Nylander is worth $10M, a spike in the cap is the only way they can afford to have a fourth player at that level.

Quoting: Leafsfan98
Gaudreau and Forsbger aren't good comparable to Nylander though... At the time they signed, the cap wasn't about to spike like it is now... Which is why neither side will sign for what they sign bc of those 2 contracts


People have been predicting a cap spike for over a year, but does anybody actually know when it’s coming and how much it’s going to be? As a GM, I’d want some more certainty on that before I spend the money. Another reason for Nylander to wait.
Jul. 29, 2023 at 6:20 p.m.
#74
Leafs going to Leafs
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Quoting: jr400
I would expect his agent to say that – he wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t – but being better than Dubois doesn’t necessarily make Nylander worth $10M. If that’s his magic number, he’ll probably have to wait. If he continues to improve and puts up better numbers next season, he’ll have a much stronger case, but Toronto, which is the only team that can sign him before next summer, already has three players over $10M. Even if they think Nylander is worth $10M, a spike in the cap is the only way they can afford to have a fourth player at that level.


But Nylander believes that he's 1.5 mill better than Dubois... Meaning he's out of TO's price range

Quoting: jr400
People have been predicting a cap spike for over a year, but does anybody actually know when it’s coming and how much it’s going to be? As a GM, I’d want some more certainty on that before I spend the money. Another reason for Nylander to wait.


Yeah, but as a player who wants money above all, I'd be using every excuse in the book to maximize that opportunity
Jul. 30, 2023 at 4:57 p.m.
#75
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
But Nylander believes that he's 1.5 mill better than Dubois... Meaning he's out of TO's price range


Yeah, if his priority is to maximize his AAV, his best bet is probably to play out his current contract and go to free agency, but the eighth year is worth a lot to somebody his age, because by the time he’s 35 there’s a good chance he’ll be in decline. I don’t know if he’s thinking that far ahead, but if I was him I’d be willing to take a few hundred thousand less on the AAV to get the eighth year.

Aren’t we supposed to be talking about Sebastian Aho here? He’s a year younger than Nylander, but still old enough that he was probably thinking about that extra year in his 30s when he decided to sign his extension.
 
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