Quoting: Jded
The types of deals that Leafs fans think they can land for their stars never cease to baffle me.
That said, ANA is game for Brodie for a 3rd
You say that Wright, Oleksiak, Drieger ($3.5M cap hit who was buried in the minors last year) for Nylander, Timmins isn't fair.
Let's say that to take the $2.5M ($1M retained) dead cap of Driger is worth about a 3rd and Timmins is worth a 4th.
So simply its Wright, Oleksiak for Nylander, 3rd and 4th.
Nylander was 20th in points in the league last year. For a quick comparison from this summer was 87th in the league.
Nylander had 87 points, Dubois had 63 points.
In a trade Dubois netted Vilardi, Iafallo, Kupari and a 2nd.
Let's get one thing out the way. Dubois was an RFA refusing to sign in Winnepeg. Winnepeg had to move him, they had no option. Either they could move him or do nothing in which case he sits out next season or sign a 1 year qualifying offer and is a UFA next summer. So the Leafs are in a better negotiation position cause Nylander can't threaten to sit out and hasn't said he won't resign and like Dubois can just walk in July 2024. Both had 1 year of control left, Nylander had a contract, Dubois didn't. Most fans think 25y old RFAs are more valuable than a pending UFA (the summer before) but if that RFA refuses to sign then they aren't more valuable because they can also walk to UFA in the same time period and case actually create situations through arbitration, sitting out etc. that limit the team's ability to trade them or otherwise deal with their cap.
That being said is Vilardi, Iafallo, Kupari and a 2nd comparable to Wright, Oleksiak minus a 2nd and third. The answer is easily yes.
Iafallo is roughly equivalent to Oleksiak.
Vilardi is a former 11th overall pick 6'3 had 41 points in 63 games last year at 24 playing 3rd line minutes (15:26 average TOI). Kupari is also just 23, 20th overall pick with 130 games of NHL experience, likely just a bottom 6 guy but has potential.
If you would do Vilardi, Kupari, 2nd, 3rd, 4th for Wright then the trade is about even not even accounting for how much more valuable Nyalnder is than Dubois.
Dubois is a 2C, Nylander is a genuine #1 winger on 25/32 teams. Most analytics rank him in the top 10 wingers in the league, he was 14th in goals and all of this is while being shuffled up and down the lineup, being bumped off PP1 when O'Reilly came in. Nylander only averaged 18:33 TOI, nobody above him in scoring played less than him, you can take it even further, aside from Skinner nobody in the top 35 point scorers played less than Nylander. So there is a serious argument that if you play him 21mins a night like most top line wingers (extra 14%) that he can get 14% more points on a team like Seattle and that's 100 points.
I know this isn't an exact science and there are assumptions made but my point is that if you think Nylander is being traded for a 1st and some mid tied prospect you massively undervalue him.
Nylander is top 2% in goals, top 2% in chance creation, top 5% in assists. He's a top 30 player in the league by any measurable statistic.