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Points expectations

Created by: Finski
Team: 2023-24 New York Rangers
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 18, 2023
Published: Sep. 18, 2023
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Call me delusional :)
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CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
80-100, Points
1$775,000
60-80, Points
1$775,000
40-60, Points
1$775,000
20-40, Points
1$775,000
0-20, Points
1$775,000
Shesterkin, Igor
2$5,666,667
Quick, Jonathan
1$825,000
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2026
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
35$83,500,000$97,496,583$610,892$1,232,500-$13,996,583
Left WingCentreRight Wing
80-100, Points
$775,000$775,000
60-80, Points
$775,000$775,000
40-60, Points
$775,000$775,000
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$11,642,857$11,642,857
LW
NMC
UFA - 3
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$2,100,000$2,100,000
RW
RFA - 1
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$6,500,000$6,500,000
LW
NMC
UFA - 4
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$8,500,000$8,500,000
C
NMC
UFA - 7
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$2,325,000$2,325,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
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$5,625,000$5,625,000
C, RW
NMC
UFA - 6
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$9,500,000$9,500,000
RD
UFA - 6
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$4,437,500$4,437,500
C, LW
UFA - 4
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$3,872,000$3,872,000
LD
RFA - 2
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$800,000$800,000 (Performance Bonus$300,000$300K)
RW
NTC
UFA - 1
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$8,000,000$8,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 3
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20-40, Points
$775,000$775,000
0-20, Points
$775,000$775,000
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$3,641,667$3,641,667
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
RD
RFA - 1
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$800,000$800,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Rangers
$825,000$825,000
LD
UFA - 1
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$800,000$800,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
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$3,000,000$3,000,000
LD
RFA - 1
Logo of the New York Rangers
$812,500$812,500
LD
RFA - 2
Logo of the New York Rangers
$787,500$787,500
RW
UFA - 1
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$775,000$775,000
LD
UFA - 1
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$775,000$775,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
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$762,500$762,500
C
UFA - 1
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$766,667$766,667
C
RFA - 2
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$775,000$775,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
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$787,500$787,500
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the New York Rangers
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$450,000$450K)
LW
RFA - 3
Logo of the New York Rangers
$828,333$828,333 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the New York Rangers
$775,000$775,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Shesterkin, Igor
$5,666,667$5,666,667
Quick, Jonathan
$825,000$825,000

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Sep. 18, 2023 at 11:22 p.m.
#1
Danny B is here
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The likelihood of almost every single of those players in the first 3 buckets hitting career highs and taking that next step is just incredibly unlikely
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Sep. 18, 2023 at 11:47 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: GMDannyB
The likelihood of almost every single of those players in the first 3 buckets hitting career highs and taking that next step is just incredibly unlikely


How is 80 points unlikely for Panarin, Mika and fox?

The kids being in the 2nd column is definitely optimistic
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Sep. 18, 2023 at 11:54 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: Rags21
How is 80 points unlikely for Panarin, Mika and fox?

The kids being in the 2nd column is definitely optimistic


Because ur not going to score 1000 goals this season lol. If all 4 guys in the middle bucket add 20 points on to their game that’s going to come at the expense of other players in every area. This prediction is literally saying basically every player will take a step forward which means ur just going to magically double the team’s goal total lol
Sep. 18, 2023 at 11:58 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: GMDannyB
Because ur not going to score 1000 goals this season lol. If all 4 guys in the middle bucket add 20 points on to their game that’s going to come at the expense of other players in every area. This prediction is literally saying basically every player will take a step forward which means ur just going to magically double the team’s goal total lol


I mean only the kids in the 60-80p is being optimistic. Everything else is fine

Panarin and Mika both hit 90. Fox could definitely push 80

Kreider, wheeler, and trocheck could hit 60 (unless chytil is 2C)

Kandre, Laffy, Kakko and trocheck/chytil could hit 40
Sep. 19, 2023 at 12:08 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: Rags21
I mean only the kids in the 60-80p is being optimistic. Everything else is fine

Panarin and Mika both hit 90. Fox could definitely push 80

Kreider, wheeler, and trocheck could hit 60 (unless chytil is 2C)

Kandre, Laffy, Kakko and trocheck/chytil could hit 40


Again this post is assuming every player is either going to take a step forward or maintain where they are which is just statistically impossible lmao
Sep. 19, 2023 at 12:11 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: GMDannyB
Again this post is assuming every player is either going to take a step forward or maintain where they are which is just statistically impossible lmao


I don’t think it’s impossible. They left a lot of goals on the table early in the year with their terrible shooting luck

Devils, Sabres and Panthers put up 290+ goals last year. Why can’t the rangers score 15-20 more?
Sep. 19, 2023 at 12:16 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: GMDannyB
Again this post is assuming every player is either going to take a step forward or maintain where they are which is just statistically impossible lmao


Also someone has to replace the 25 goals 60 points Ish from guys who left, like Tarasenko, Kane, Gauthier, Kravtsov, Mikkola, Blais, etc..
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Sep. 19, 2023 at 12:29 a.m.
#8
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Quoting: Rags21
Also someone has to replace the 25 goals 60 points Ish from guys who left, like Tarasenko, Kane, Gauthier, Kravtsov, Mikkola, Blais, etc..


These buckets are assuming there will be around an extra 80 points at absolute minimum which means the Rangers are going to score at least 30 more goals this year which would mean they would be far and away the Presidents Trophy Winners lol it’s just extremely unlikely man
Sep. 19, 2023 at 1:04 a.m.
#9
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For many of these guys, its hard to guess what their point totals will be under Lavi. Panarin and Mika are 80-100 points both if they play a full season, that is pretty much a certainty. But how many minutes will Laffy, Kakko and Chytil get? Hopefully more than under Turk, but it's still an unknown. In any case, expecting 60-80 points from all three is wildly optimistic. And what will Lavi do with Trocheck? 2C? 3C defensive checking line? If he gets 19 to 20 mins a night as 2C, there is no reason he can't hit 64 points like he did last season or better, but that will limit Chytils minutes and points most likely. If Lavi wants a checking 3rd line and uses Trocheck in that way, than his points will decrease. And will Kreider still be on Mika's wing? If so, than he could still be a 60+ point player. Fox will be 70-80 points min if he plays an entire year and 90+ isn't out of his reach. Miller should also keep improving and add to last years 47 points. And what about Gustaffson, who had 42 points last year under Lavi.
Sep. 19, 2023 at 3:29 a.m.
#10
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I hope the team plays well, don't care about individual players stats.
Sep. 19, 2023 at 8:19 a.m.
#11
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Edited Sep. 19, 2023 at 9:08 a.m.
Quoting: GMDannyB
These buckets are assuming there will be around an extra 80 points at absolute minimum which means the Rangers are going to score at least 30 more goals this year which would mean they would be far and away the Presidents Trophy Winners lol it’s just extremely unlikely man


So I assume you perfectly predicted the Bruins breaking records last season with Marchand and McAvoy hurt? Or Karlsson putting up 100 points

I’m not saying every guy on the rangers will improve but it’s not impossible that majority of them will improve, but maybe not a 20 point jump
Sep. 19, 2023 at 8:36 a.m.
#12
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Quoting: AG_sweden
I hope the team plays well, don't care about individual players stats.


Yet you care about Panarin’s postseason stats lol
Sep. 19, 2023 at 9:21 a.m.
#13
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Quoting: Rags21
Yet you care about Panarin’s postseason stats lol


Do I think he is worth the money? No. He is a little mouse. That in my opinion is hurting the team more than helping it. But will I care about that if they win the cup? No. Hence it is more important for me that the team does well.
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Sep. 19, 2023 at 9:37 a.m.
#14
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Quoting: AG_sweden
Do I think he is worth the money? No. He is a little mouse. That in my opinion is hurting the team more than helping it. But will I care about that if they win the cup? No. Hence it is more important for me that the team does well.


The entire team played awful in round 1 except maybe Igor and Kreider. it’s just easy to pick on the guy with the biggest contract lol
Sep. 19, 2023 at 9:47 a.m.
#15
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Edited Sep. 19, 2023 at 1:02 p.m.
Quoting: Rags21
The entire team played awful in round 1 except maybe Igor and Kreider. it’s just easy to pick on the guy with the biggest contract lol


Last year's serie against the Devils are the worst team performance I've ever seen! That wasn't only Panarin's fault. But I was against that signing from the start and I have not changed my mind on that. Worst part is he saying he's gone work on certain stuff in the off-season and comes back and does those things worse. Better not to make such promises and shut up 🫡
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Sep. 19, 2023 at 11:16 a.m.
#16
CHYTIL 4 Conn Smythe
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Quoting: Rags21
The entire team played awful in round 1 except maybe Igor and Kreider. it’s just easy to pick on the guy with the biggest contract lol


No they didn't. Kane and Tarasenko were good. The fourth line did their jobs. Fox was Fox, Game 7 just happened to be the worst game of his career. Panarin should be picked on. This was the second year in a row that he's been an embarrassment. Look at the people around him on the highest paid players list. Matthews, McDavid, Mackinnon would never pull the BS that Panarin does. And Mitch Marner would be a far better choice for this team if you're paying a winger that much money.
Sep. 19, 2023 at 1:55 p.m.
#17
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Quoting: Coachchippy
No they didn't. Kane and Tarasenko were good. The fourth line did their jobs. Fox was Fox, Game 7 just happened to be the worst game of his career. Panarin should be picked on. This was the second year in a row that he's been an embarrassment. Look at the people around him on the highest paid players list. Matthews, McDavid, Mackinnon would never pull the BS that Panarin does. And Mitch Marner would be a far better choice for this team if you're paying a winger that much money.


Lol I’m not getting into this with you again. Lol MacK, matthews and Mcdavid are younger and better than Panarin so lower your standards


Tarasenko had 4 points in 7 games (.57 PPG)
Panarin had 16 points in 20 games (.8 PPG) last year
Matthews and Marner career wise are under PPG in the playoffs

Panarin had ONE bad playoffs and suddenly NYR fans think they could do better or put together a better team lol what a joke
Sep. 19, 2023 at 2:13 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: Rags21
Lol I’m not getting into this with you again. Lol MacK, matthews and Mcdavid are younger and better than Panarin so lower your standards


Tarasenko had 4 points in 7 games (.57 PPG)
Panarin had 16 points in 20 games (.8 PPG) last year
Matthews and Marner career wise are under PPG in the playoffs

Panarin had ONE bad playoffs and suddenly NYR fans think they could do better or put together a better team lol what a joke


I feel the need to get into this because your narratives are wrong. You clearly have a soft spot for Panarin and excuse his horrible performances. But I have no love lost for Panarin so I can see things objectively.

Number one. Yes, Mack AM34 and 97 are all younger and better than Panarin. So why is he ANYWHERE near them on that salary list?! Ridiculous. If the Rangers are only paying him 8m a year this is a significantly smaller issue. But we are paying him like he's a player of that caliber and he's just NOT and never has been. I don't need to lower my standards, you need to increase yours and see that his performance, relative to his salary is unacceptable. Regular season AND ESPECIALLY playoffs.

I'm happy with Tarasenko and Kane's performances because they were brought in as supplementary pieces. They were never supposed to be THE guys. THE guys are (in theory) Panarin, Zibanejad and Kreider. The only reason anyone is talking about Vlad or PK badly, is because they had unrealistic expectations for them. They were great for their intended role. And they would have continued to contribute and show up, had people like Panarin and Z done their jobs and we moved on.

Matthews and Marner are significantly younger than Panarin so I don't care what they did in the 2017 playoffs when they were basically the infants of the NHL. Now they are in their primes. Last playoffs Marner had 14 points in 11 games. That's electric and that's what Panarin needs to be doing, if not MORE since he's paid more than Marner. AM put up 11 points in 11 games. Not as great as Marner but still an acceptable performance.

16 points in 20 games in the 2022 playoffs, right. Wanna know who else put up exactly 16 points in 20 games in 2022? Chris Kreider, who is FANTASTIC and proven clutch relative to his salary. He's paid half of what Panarin is. Panarin either needs to put up points accordingly, or he could have taken a pay cut and been equal to Kreider's 6m. Because .8 PPG is fantastic for a 6m guy. It's horrible for a 12m guy.

So that's two bad playoffs. We can call 2022 lackluster. But 2023 was horrifyingly bad.
Sep. 19, 2023 at 2:23 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: Coachchippy
I feel the need to get into this because your narratives are wrong. You clearly have a soft spot for Panarin and excuse his horrible performances. But I have no love lost for Panarin so I can see things objectively.

Number one. Yes, Mack AM34 and 97 are all younger and better than Panarin. So why is he ANYWHERE near them on that salary list?! Ridiculous. If the Rangers are only paying him 8m a year this is a significantly smaller issue. But we are paying him like he's a player of that caliber and he's just NOT and never has been. I don't need to lower my standards, you need to increase yours and see that his performance, relative to his salary is unacceptable. Regular season AND ESPECIALLY playoffs.

I'm happy with Tarasenko and Kane's performances because they were brought in as supplementary pieces. They were never supposed to be THE guys. THE guys are (in theory) Panarin, Zibanejad and Kreider. The only reason anyone is talking about Vlad or PK badly, is because they had unrealistic expectations for them. They were great for their intended role. And they would have continued to contribute and show up, had people like Panarin and Z done their jobs and we moved on.

Matthews and Marner are significantly younger than Panarin so I don't care what they did in the 2017 playoffs when they were basically the infants of the NHL. Now they are in their primes. Last playoffs Marner had 14 points in 11 games. That's electric and that's what Panarin needs to be doing, if not MORE since he's paid more than Marner. AM put up 11 points in 11 games. Not as great as Marner but still an acceptable performance.

16 points in 20 games in the 2022 playoffs, right. Wanna know who else put up exactly 16 points in 20 games in 2022? Chris Kreider, who is FANTASTIC and proven clutch relative to his salary. He's paid half of what Panarin is. Panarin either needs to put up points accordingly, or he could have taken a pay cut and been equal to Kreider's 6m. Because .8 PPG is fantastic for a 6m guy. It's horrible for a 12m guy.

So that's two bad playoffs. We can call 2022 lackluster. But 2023 was horrifyingly bad.


Dude those guys you mentioned are entering their primes lol Panarin got paid at the peak of his prime….why is this so hard for you to understand lol

Yea his performance against the devils was horrendous and he is overpaid. Doesn’t make him a bad player and give the devils credit for shutting him down when it matters

He’s still the best offensive players on the rangers without a doubt. If he’s gone, then who replaces his production? Cause it’s not like Tkachuk, Matthews, Marner, Mcdavid are hitting the free agency any time soon
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Sep. 19, 2023 at 6:36 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: GMDannyB
These buckets are assuming there will be around an extra 80 points at absolute minimum which means the Rangers are going to score at least 30 more goals this year which would mean they would be far and away the Presidents Trophy Winners lol it’s just extremely unlikely man


This post is assuming that the lineup is:
Lafrenière - Zibanejad - Wheeler
Panarin - Chytil - Kakko
Kreider - Trocheck - Goodrow/Vesey
Vesey/Goodrow - Bonino - Pitlick

You are assuming that a good 3rd line cannot produce 40 points (especially considering that Kreider and maybe Trocheck will be on PP1 where most of Kreiders points come from). You are talking of an impossibility, which clearly is not the case. 30 goal increase does not mean anything drastic over a 82 game season (<0.5 G/GP) and does not mean that the Rangers will win the presidential trophy. Last season, the Rangers scored 273 goals, Edmonton scored 325 (they did not win the presidents' trophy in case you forgot). You talk of statistical anomalies and impossibilities, yet your argument is within the range of a blip.
Sep. 19, 2023 at 6:57 p.m.
#21
Danny B is here
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Quoting: Finski
This post is assuming that the lineup is:
Lafrenière - Zibanejad - Wheeler
Panarin - Chytil - Kakko
Kreider - Trocheck - Goodrow/Vesey
Vesey/Goodrow - Bonino - Pitlick

You are assuming that a good 3rd line cannot produce 40 points (especially considering that Kreider and maybe Trocheck will be on PP1 where most of Kreiders points come from). You are talking of an impossibility, which clearly is not the case. 30 goal increase does not mean anything drastic over a 82 game season (<0.5 G/GP) and does not mean that the Rangers will win the presidential trophy. Last season, the Rangers scored 273 goals, Edmonton scored 325 (they did not win the presidents' trophy in case you forgot). You talk of statistical anomalies and impossibilities, yet your argument is within the range of a blip.


U forget EDM gave up a lot more goals too. Scoring 30 goals more while staying defensively sound absolutely would result in a lot more points. Let’s not act like u assuming every single player on ur team will maintain or get better this year isn’t almost impossible players will certainly regress it happens on every team every year in every sport lol
Sep. 19, 2023 at 7:03 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: GMDannyB
Again this post is assuming every player is either going to take a step forward or maintain where they are which is just statistically impossible lmao


The Rangers shot 2582 last season, out of which 273 went in this gives us a shot to goal ratio of 89.5% that is to say that around 10% of all shots went into the net (10.5%), if we raise this to the assumption that 303 goals would have gone in with the same amount of shots we get a result that 88.3% of shots did not go in and around 11.7% of shots would produce a goal. That is to say that a 30 goal increase would mean an 1.2% (0.012) increase of shots would have gone in. Considering the statistics that Trocheck hit the post 12 times last season, we are left with a necessary assumption that a 30 goal increase is not impossible and statistically definitely possible.
Sep. 19, 2023 at 7:05 p.m.
#23
Danny B is here
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Quoting: Finski
The Rangers shot 2582 last season, out of which 273 went in this gives us a shot to goal ratio of 89.5% that is to say that around 10% of all shots went into the net (10.5%), if we raise this to the assumption that 303 goals would have gone in with the same amount of shots we get a result that 88.3% of shots did not go in and around 11.7% of shots would produce a goal. That is to say that a 30 goal increase would mean an 1.2% (0.012) increase of shots would have gone in. Considering the statistics that Trocheck hit the post 12 times last season, we are left with a necessary assumption that a 30 goal increase is not impossible and statistically definitely possible.


Okay man u clearly think every Rangers player is going to be amazing this year so good luck with that
Sep. 19, 2023 at 7:09 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: GMDannyB
Okay man u clearly think every Rangers player is going to be amazing this year so good luck with that


I don't think it, I have showed you my work to show you why this is actually VERY possible. I am curious to see how this is a statistical impossibility and if I have made a mistake in my work. I await your response in proving why a 1.2% increase amongst 100 shots cannot go in. The ball is in your court.
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Sep. 19, 2023 at 7:17 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: GMDannyB
Okay man u clearly think every Rangers player is going to be amazing this year so good luck with that


Also more simply put the only player that moved up on the rankings from a different "bucket" is Lafreniere who got 39 points. Kakko, Chytil, Kreider, Trocheck, Panarin, Zibanejad all were in the top 3 buckets. Taking a look at the buckets we see that what you are saying is completely un true. I do not get why you even continue with this line of argumentation. You have been disproven time in and time out.

Edit: Also Trouba, my mistake.
 
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