I'm with ya. We can even front load it if that helps with the dollars early and keeps the AAV low. He should 100% be bumped back up to the #1 LD with Jones. They play much better together than apart. Same with KK by the way. He plays better next to Murph too.

I've seen enough from Vlasic to be comfortable with this. His size and speed alone makes him a 2nd pair guy already. 4.3 with this cap and it going up could be a steal.

For what it's worth, Samuelsson hasn't earned his contract.

I'd be good with this if Vlasic's play the rest of the season is the same or better than what he has showed so far. He looks the part of a legit top 4 NHL D man.

Maybe he hasn't yet. He's on year 1. I trust you've watched more Sabres games than me...Still ~20ATOI and getting stuck with mostly DZone starts, BUT still a +2. The stats (not the eye test) are saying Dahlin...get you're act together and play a little defense!!! It shouldn't fall entirely on Samuelsson

Dahlin is an elite defensemen, both ways, full stop, he carries his partner Samuelsson is fine, but fine doesn't get 7 years and almost 5 million dollars a year

Agreed, Dahlin is elite. Not suggesting he's not. It's been 7 games. He'll bounce back. Full Stop. The cap is jumping up. If you can get a true defensive stopper for $5M that you can rely on for the next 7 years...it's worth it. Now, if you're saying he can't be that...ok fine.

I agree, it would be great if the Hawks could lock up Vlasic in the offseason, IF his play continues this way, for give or take $4M. You'd have to think his agent is going to be smarter than this though and look for a bridge deal of 2 to 4 years in effort to get paid more as the cap raises and Vlasic continues to get better. It's simply still too early in his career to think his ceiling is a $4M a year player. His agent would be wise to go after that bridge at $4M and hawks would be a in tough spot not to agree to bridge him against having to sign a 1 year deal and going to arbitration the following year.

It's risk/reward. For better or worse, contracts are mostly given off of points. That's not Vlasic's strong suit. A 1 year deal withOUT arb rights isn't going to be much more than $2M for a single season of play. It's not like Vlasic has a lot of rights in the short term. Is it worth getting an extra ~$2.7M in AAV, BUT also front loaded money today? That's the calculus his agent should be working through.

Not only front loaded TODAY, but guaranteed over the next 7 years. If they are looking for a bridge, I would only go one year, though. If they stretch it out too far it is going to complicate things with either Bedard and Korchinski's ELC's being up at the exact same time, or Nazar and Moore's ELC's possibly being up at the same time. Could get messy real quick. A raise with term now compared to a smaller bridge followed by a larger deal with term, the dollar amount over the same amount of time will probably end up in the same ballpark anyway. Might as well take the guarantee and grow into the contract. Defensive dmen don't get much more than that anyway. Plus, it gives KD more time to plan for other contracts.

But, maybe KD has other ideas for how he wants to structure CHI's cap situation and when to give more substantial raises. It's easier said than done when we aren't the ones with our jobs on the line. But, Vlasic looks like the real deal, and he doesn't play a style that looks unsustainable, either. He looks like he will only get better and could continue being effective for a long time. Unlike Hagel, for instance, whom I always had concerns about longevity with. I love Hagel and his game, but I always kind of wondered how long he could sustain that high motor high tempo effectiveness in all zones style. Either he is an absolute freak and will be able sustain that level of play well into his 30's, or he is gonna get burnt out in a few years and TBL is gonna be stuck with that new deal of his. Maybe being less physical in TBL than he was in CHI will help his longevity too.

Yeah. But, he is still a very promising young dman who could definitely grow into the contract. He has shown flashes of some brilliant play. I am interested to see how this new waive of 'paying players based on projections' rather than 'paying them based on past performance' turns out. Either way there is risk involved, but I still think the Samuelsson deal has a great chance of being really good for BUF in the long term.

I think he has a chance of earning it, it just will never be a steal

You never know. 7 years is a long time in hockey. The rest of the roster getting better will only make him look and play better, too. If he can eat 20+ minutes a night, has decent chemistry with Dahlin, becomes more consistent, and even takes a few steps over the next couple years, that contract will be well worth it. Also, a $4.3M cap hit looks worse now than it is going to look in a few years. $4-5M will be the new $2-3M, pretty soon.

The way d-men get paid these days I wonder if that number would be high enough to get him to commit to 7 years.

At ~$4m AAV I'm assuming his agent wouldn't let him sign anything longer than, say, 4 years.

Maybe. I'd be willing to bet he ends up on a short term bridge first. But, if they could get him to commit to it, I would be all for it.

You wouldn't want a 1 year deal as that walks him right into arbitration rights per the NHLPA agreement. The best bet is to get him long term, but I doubt the Hawks could at $4M'ish unless Vlasic and his agent don't want to bet on himself and against major injuries. If the Hawks can get him at 4 years or longer for $4M that would be ideal, as it should be after Moore and Nazar ELC expiration given Vlasic's remaining year this year, plus 4 more years locked. Even if the Hawks extend him for 3, at least that will go beyond Bedard's and Korchinski's ELC renewal time.

Vlasic is definitely someone to lock in as long as possible, I just don't think his agent or he would agree to 7 or 8 years at $4M...they would be dumb to especially with the increases in cap over the next few years. They probably want a number around $6M or maybe even more which obviously isn't happening. Landing on 4 years at $4M is doable I believe for both sides.

The cap juggling, while totally doable, is going to take science going into 2026/2027 when we expect the Hawks to truly compete. Bedard, Korchinski, Moore, Nazar, Reichel, Soderblom, and maybe even Kaiser are all going to eat up good chunks of the available cap; not to mention other guys who won't demand as much but still count (Dach, Kurashev, Rinzel, Allan, Commesso, etc.). Nonetheless, I'm confident it can be navigated okay and still making a big splash with a free agent.

Sure. Which is why i suggested long term in the first place. It was actually the principle argument for this post, the AAV wasn't quite as important and was purely for the sake of comparison to Samulesson's deal. Also, Arbitration doesn't scare me. CHI would likely be willing to give him significantly more than arbitration would award, anyway. The reason I suggest one year, is as if there is a mutual understanding between him/his agent and the team, that they want a larger sample size to determine a number for a long term deal. If not a one year 'prove it' deal, i certainly wouldn't want to go any less than 4 years. Two or three years does not interest me. Then again, I'd also strongly consider giving him significantly more than $4.3m RIGHT NOW, which I might be in the minority on.