Edited Nov. 13, 2023 at 1:00 a.m.
Quoting: GMBL
I agree that Eichel and Lindholm are not comparables at all despite the risk that was involved in acquiring Eichel, even if Lindholm was coming with an extension (would not assume that he was) he would still be more similar to Horvat, who didn't come with an extension but I'm certain that Lou knew approximately what it would take and that Horvat was interested. I would say though that Alex Tuch at the time of the Eichel trade was far more valuable than any of Bean, Peeke, Beauvillier, Dumba, or Smith. He was a 24-year-old winger signed at 4.75Mx6, still had the same characteristics that he has today that make him valuable today, and was 0.5ppg in the playoffs; his value has only gone up since last year. Tuch was an important part of the return vs what Bean, Peeke, Beauvillier, Dumba or Smith were/would be in those trades (players with some upside/pure cap dumps).
Hanifin could net something similar to Orlov as the top D rental, but he could also net something similar to Hampus Lindholm. The trade market is fluid, and the GMs' negotiation abilities, as well as other factors, are also going to contribute to the return on a potential deal.
I don't think that ARZ and CLB aren't looking to compete this year, ARZ had been trying to improve over the years which is why they wanted to reportedly sign Kadri, and being competitive has become more important with Keller wanting to be on a team that is competitive sooner rather than later. As for CBJ, they definitely want to be a playoff team, they vastly underperformed to their expectations last year. I'm sure after adding Gaudreau and Gudbranson they thought that they would improve rather than being a bottom 5 team. This off-season they replaced Gavrikov (who they sold) with Provorov and added Severson. Definitely not moves made by a GM looking to miss the playoffs, and I suspect that Jarmo Kekalainen will get fired if they don't make a push for the playoffs. He might not get the okay, to spend more assets like that though.
If CBJ was acquiring Lindholm, I think Sillinger + Peeke/Bean + a 1st (Value 1st + Top Prospect + a Roster Player) would be what's given up, Bean was on the block as well but I don't think that would mean they are going to just give him and Peeke as part of the package. Bean could essentially just be used as an own rental and return something small since he is an RFA.
As for Hanifin to ARZ, I don't think Dumba being included is a huge issue even if he has value except for the fact that there is no need for ARZ to remove Dumba as they can afford to take on Hanifin's cap hit without moving him. They might include a roster player but probably someone of less significance. Instead of the OP's suggested Value: 1st + Former Top Prospect + 2nd + 2nd + Cap Dump
maybe a 1st + former top prospect + a 2nd + 2nd or 3rd depending on if there's retention on Hanifin (not that it's needed).
I don't think Hanafin is nearly as good as lindholm tbh. But again based on AZ's 1st location as a comparable, even with something halfway between the lindholm and orlov price (closer to lindholm), that's still probably only the AZ 1st at best, nothing else.
CBJ imo isn't gonna give up what's likely a top 10 pick
NJD, Carolina, NYR, Tor, Tampa, Florida (6 division winners imo)
Even with lindholm, are they better than 5 of Pitt, Buffalo, Ottawa, NYI, Boston, Detroit? I don't think so.
Is AZ even with hanafin beating out
Edmonton Vancouver, LAK, Vegas, Seattle Anaheim, Dallas, Avs, Minnesota, WInnipeg (this conference seems way more wide open tbh). Maybe. But probably not
And even the horvat price might be optimistic, as lindholm isn't having anything close to the year horvat was. He's been pretty underwhelming this year and last