Quoting: Celtics21
I hate to tell you this. You get rental rates for him because you can’t sign him to an extension. You’re expecting more than what Vancouver got for Bo Horvat when Hovart was having a better year and going into an offseason where there wasn’t going to be money available.
If you can sign him, keep him.
With less cap room available, you are likely going to have to take salary. Just because you are too lazy to find another deal on top of it transition players with value isn’t my problem.
The open issue is Boston is good and doesn’t need to give up the farm for a player they are going to have o pay massive money into his mid 30’s. They need to provide what are market rates for a pending FA rather than the delusional beliefs of Calgary fans who don’t understand the concept of value.
Sweeney went all in last year and it didn’t work. Frankly, I view Lindholm as 1 of about 8 FA’s I’d love to have next offseason. Very good player whose stat line hasn’t reached the same levels since you traded your MVP candidate for a walking depression ad and a good defenseman.
If you argument, is that Boston doesn’t need Lindholm, so Calgary should accept less to accommodate them, then I think it’s you that needs to understand valuation….or hockey…or economics for that matter.
Player Values increase as you approach the trade deadline and draft picks typically decline. Post deadline, draft pick values increase and player value declines. Even if you don’t consider that relationship, you can cross reference what players have been acquired for 1st round picks and compare that with their GSVA. That gives you an idea of cost, vs the value of the payer to their team in (semi) absolute terms.
Since September of 2022, there have been 16 1st round picks traded for players. Below are the GSVAs of those players (which is a 3-year weighted aggregate individually regressed towards the mean for off, def, usage). I included Zacha and Hanifin for comparison’s sake. The GSVA data is up to the end of last season, so even if there was a vast change in any players performance through 20games this season (positive or negative) it would only account for 8.13% variation against the numbers below. It's not like any of them had a 100% change in their run rates this year compared to last.
Lindholm is tied for 3rd on that list. Even if you want to make the argument that he shouldn’t get Horvat’s value from last year, that hardly makes the OG post a valid trade. Centers may be worth more, UFA's less, but either way it would be idiotic for Calgary to accept that deal and not get a 1st. If anything, it just highlights how poorly conceived it is, and just how anecdotal your knowledge of hockey is.
Player GSVA
Timo Meier 3
Mattias Ekholm 2.7
Bo Horvat 2.2
Jake McCabe 2.2 (Traded with Sam Lafferty -0.1)
Elias Lindholm 2.2
Filip Hronek 2
Pavel Zacha 1.7
Jakob Chychrun 1.6
Dmitry Orlov 1.4
Noah Hanifin 1.4
Rasmus Sandin 1.1
Vladimir Tarasenko 1
Vladislav Gavrikov 1
Ryan O'Reilly 0.5
Tyler Bertuzzi 0.5
Alex Newhook 0.2
Nils Lundkvist 0
Tanner Jeannot -0.2
Ivan Provorov -0.8
Quoting: JMB423
Sorry to also tell you, but Zacha is producing same rates for the same cap hit right now. I know they're not the same player, but if going off this, what's Zacha worth with term?
https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_compare.php?players%5B%5D=3914&players%5B%5D=4203&period=2023-2024%3AR%3A99