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moneylander

Team: 2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Nov. 26, 2023
Published: Nov. 26, 2023
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Nov. 26, 2023 at 11:15 p.m.
#1
FKA Bigtittielarper
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Leafs decline to pay him more then 11 no one will pay him more then 11 except maybe Chicago throws 16Mx2 at him
Nov. 26, 2023 at 11:22 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: SomeonesOffended
Leafs decline to pay him more then 11 no one will pay him more then 11 except maybe Chicago throws 16Mx2 at him


You are talking about the GM who gave Huberdeau $10.5 million.
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Nov. 26, 2023 at 11:22 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
You are talking about the GM who gave Huberdeau $10.5 million.


And hopefully he’s learned from that
Nov. 26, 2023 at 11:27 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: SomeonesOffended
And hopefully he’s learned from that


True, a couple weeks before he gave Huberbeau $10.5, he signed Tkachuck for $9.5.

So... if the trend continues, the next big max term contract he'll sign gets $11.5.

Than Marner gets $12.5.
Nov. 26, 2023 at 11:32 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: SomeonesOffended
And hopefully he’s learned from that


NHL GMs don't learn from free agent signings. I expect there will be more than one GM willing to give Nylander $96M over the next 8 years.
Nov. 26, 2023 at 11:38 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: audiodave
NHL GMs don't learn from free agent signings. I expect there will be more than one GM willing to give Nylander $96M over the next 8 years.


I wouldn't be surprise that the Nylander camp has the number $88 stuck in there head. So $11 AAV, he wants the J.T. contract.

Then J.T. must take the ole Nylander contract, $7 AAV.

So it's even Steven in Leafland.
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Nov. 26, 2023 at 11:38 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
You are talking about the GM who gave Huberdeau $10.5 million.


Hubderdeau had 115 points though including a single assist record for a forward

Nylander in order to make more than Pasta and Marner would need to get 60 goals and 130 points

At most hes gonna make the same has Huberdeau
Nov. 26, 2023 at 11:39 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
You are talking about the GM who gave Huberdeau $10.5 million.


Quoting: SomeonesOffended
And hopefully he’s learned from that


What are you guys talking about? Any GM would have given Huberdeau 10.5Mx8, especially just after losing their top 2 offensive forwards and not having anyone nearly as good. Huberdeau had 415pts in 368 games in the last 5-years (139 in 124 in the last 3) before signing, let's not act like he was just some random chump.

I'm not saying that Nylander is chump but there's simply no reason for the Leafs to give Nylander 11.888Mx8, because:
1) it's very unlikely that any team offers him a 95M deal on a 7-year contract
2) They still need to sign Marner and soon enough Matthews to new deals
3) They have Matthews and Marner even if they lose him
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Nov. 26, 2023 at 11:39 p.m.
#9
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: audiodave
NHL GMs don't learn from free agent signings. I expect there will be more than one GM willing to give Nylander $96M over the next 8 years.


Technically unless hes traded cant do the 8th year

There maybe a team who offers 11m but it would probs be a bottom feeder

Just cant see a team give him more than Pastranak.
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Nov. 26, 2023 at 11:44 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: audiodave
NHL GMs don't learn from free agent signings. I expect there will be more than one GM willing to give Nylander $96M over the next 8 years.


If he hits free agency, they can't give him 8-years. If Treliving trades him, for a measly 2nd or 3rd pick, allowing another team to offer Nylander 8-years, then he would be foolish to do so.

I don't think there's any team willing to make him the highest-paid player in the NHL at 13.7Mx7 and even if there might be that's when Treliving should let him walk.
Nov. 26, 2023 at 11:48 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: aadoyle
Technically unless hes traded cant do the 8th year

There maybe a team who offers 11m but it would probs be a bottom feeder

Just cant see a team give him more than Pastranak.


Quoting: GMBL
What are you guys talking about? Any GM would have given Huberdeau 10.5Mx8, especially just after losing their top 2 offensive forwards and not having anyone nearly as good. Huberdeau had 415pts in 368 games in the last 5-years (139 in 124 in the last 3) before signing, let's not act like he was just some random chump.

I'm not saying that Nylander is chump but there's simply no reason for the Leafs to give Nylander 11.888Mx8, because:
1) it's very unlikely that any team offers him a 95M deal on a 7-year contract
2) They still need to sign Marner and soon enough Matthews to new deals
3) They have Matthews and Marner even if they lose him


You forgot one thing, player agents like to compare salary cap hit %, so with the cap going way way UP, Nylander can get paid more than Pasta but still see the cap hit % being lower !
Nov. 26, 2023 at 11:56 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: GMBL
If he hits free agency, they can't give him 8-years. If Treliving trades him, for a measly 2nd or 3rd pick, allowing another team to offer Nylander 8-years, then he would be foolish to do so.

I don't think there's any team willing to make him the highest-paid player in the NHL at 13.7Mx7 and even if there might be that's when Treliving should let him walk.


I don't think he will hit free agency; Toronto will sign him or trade him. Either way, somebody's going to pay him what he wants.
Nov. 26, 2023 at 11:56 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
You forgot one thing, player agents like to compare salary cap hit %, so with the cap going way way UP, Nylander can get paid more than Pasta but still see the cap hit % being lower !


Doesnt really matter. Hes not better than Pasta so even with percentages he still will have the same cap hit

The comparison is the players point percentages and skillset

Look at Pasta's numbers when he signed that deal he had 61 goals.

Nylander's has 27 but as we saw his pace may have gone back to normal. So we may see another 80 to maybe a 90 point season

So 10m x 8 years could even be in his future. But for now will stick to Huberdeau
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Nov. 27, 2023 at 12:01 a.m.
#14
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
You forgot one thing, player agents like to compare salary cap hit %, so with the cap going way way UP, Nylander can get paid more than Pasta but still see the cap hit % being lower !


Sure, they can be looking for a certain cap %, but that likely means he prices himself out of Toronto. If that happens then so be it. Treliving's job is to build a Stanley Cup team, not signing them because they drafted them. Marner's cap will too be looking for a %, and the Leafs simply wouldn't be able to afford him, but instead of being cap strapped for an entire year just to let Marner walk, why wouldn't they just let Nylander walk and re-sign their other UFAs and have a better team put forward for the 2024-25 season?
Nov. 27, 2023 at 12:06 a.m.
#15
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Quoting: audiodave
I don't think he will hit free agency; Toronto will sign him or trade him. Either way, somebody's going to pay him what he wants.


They won't trade him during the season unless they somehow win the trade, they are trying to win the Cup so having the best team available is more important than trying to keep assets. In the post-season, the only reason they might trade him is if someone pays a 1st, otherwise, it makes zero sense for the Leafs to give up the only leverage that they have to try signing a guy that they really want to keep around. More than likely they try to sign him up to the last minute and they are either successful or lose him to free agency.
Nov. 27, 2023 at 12:08 a.m.
#16
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Quoting: aadoyle
Technically unless hes traded cant do the 8th year

There maybe a team who offers 11m but it would probs be a bottom feeder

Just cant see a team give him more than Pastranak.


The Leafs will sign him or trade him. If he wants 8 years someone will give it to him. Pastranak wanted to stay in Boston and probably took less money to do so. Also, the salary cap should go up significantly next season and players' salaries will as well.
Nov. 27, 2023 at 12:30 a.m.
#17
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Quoting: GMBL
Sure, they can be looking for a certain cap %, but that likely means he prices himself out of Toronto. If that happens then so be it. Treliving's job is to build a Stanley Cup team, not signing them because they drafted them. Marner's cap will too be looking for a %, and the Leafs simply wouldn't be able to afford him, but instead of being cap strapped for an entire year just to let Marner walk, why wouldn't they just let Nylander walk and re-sign their other UFAs and have a better team put forward for the 2024-25 season?


If Nylander out points Marner this year, there's no chance that he'll take a contract less than Marner's current contract. Because we all know Marner will be seeking a raise too.
Nov. 27, 2023 at 12:59 a.m.
#18
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Edited Nov. 27, 2023 at 1:32 a.m.
Quoting: aadoyle
Doesnt really matter. Hes not better than Pasta so even with percentages he still will have the same cap hit

The comparison is the players point percentages and skillset


Nylander could see himself just as good as Pastrnak but there's no denying that Pastrnak is better goal scorer which would give him the edge. Either way what he thinks of himself or what others think of him doesn't really matter as much what data they could bring to try to prove that he's just as good or better than Pastrnak or Huberdeau.

If we compare the point percentages from the last 3-years (using the partial years for Pastrnak and to-date for Nylander) prior to signing and what they got this is what we get:


Pastrnak: 1.15 PPG (0.569 GPG) => 13.64 C.H %
Huberdeau: 1.08 PPG (0.304 GPG) => 12.73 C.H %
Nylander: 1.07 PPG ( 0.474 GPG) => ?



So, seeing that at his current pace, Nylander's body of work has him slightly below Huberdeau, he doesn't have much ability to ask for anywhere near Pastrak's cap %. He could maybe argue for slightly higher than Huberdeau's because he scores a lot more goals, so perhaps he argues for 12.73% of 88M = 11.2024M. That being said that doesn't mean the Leafs can afford that so if he wants that he'll probably have to seek it elsewhere. The Leafs need to be aware of Marner (1.26 PPG (0.409 GPG)) who could easily demand for a much larger cap % than Pastrnak (maybe Panarin's 14.29% would be Marner's camps ask), but even if we just use Pastrnak's 13.64% of 92M that's 12.5488M (at 14.29% = 13.1468M). So, it's pretty clear that the Leafs need to sign Nylander (if possible) at a cap hit % below Huberdeau's. Just looking at some of the guys that have similar point percentage to Nylander now, I found that Gaudreau had 1.07 PPG (0.370) => 11.82 C.H % (caveat: signed during a flat cap and he actually hit free agency, although I think Treliving offered him a slightly higher AAVx8 at the last minute). That would give Nylander a 10.4016M cap hit.

So, I wouldn't rule out a 10.4-11.2M cap hit for Nylander but it's more than likely that Toronto can't afford to give him anything in that upper range. Like you said, 10Mx8 or Huberdeau's 10.5M (or in that range) is more than likely.

Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
If Nylander out points Marner this year, there's no chance that he'll take a contract less than Marner's current contract. Because we all know Marner will be seeking a raise too.


He might push for more, but look how much Marner could demand, so the Leafs are more than likely not going to give him more than Marner's current contract unless the Leafs sign him in free agency after extending Marner at a team-friendly deal (below 12M-although 12.5M could be considered a discount). Only then he might get 11-11.25MX7 from Toronto, but likely he will go to some other team. It would suck to lose Nylander but if he wants a really huge cap hit then the best thing for him and the Leafs would be to part ways. Csick did and ACGM where the Leafs pay Nylander 11M and Marner 12.5M and it's not pretty. I won't say that the Leafs won't pay Nylander 11Mx8 or slightly more, but there's no way they do 11.888M. The higher the contract though, the more immovable it becomes if they ever need to trade Nylander even if he continues to put up 95+ points. On an 8-year deal, the Leafs would have a strong offer at 10M and at 10.6M, which would be the equivalent of him getting 11.25Mx7 in FA, then signing a 6Mx1 deal at 34.
Nov. 27, 2023 at 7:57 a.m.
#19
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Quoting: audiodave
NHL GMs don't learn from free agent signings. I expect there will be more than one GM willing to give Nylander $96M over the next 8 years.


The leafs are the only team that can sign willie for 8yrs, any other team can only sign him max 7yrs.
Nov. 27, 2023 at 10:57 a.m.
#20
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Quoting: jaok3
The leafs are the only team that can sign willie for 8yrs, any other team can only sign him max 7yrs.


Yes, I'm well aware of that. If the Leafs can't get him signed they will trade his rights to someone else.
Nov. 27, 2023 at 11:34 a.m.
#21
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Quoting: GMBL
Nylander could see himself just as good as Pastrnak but there's no denying that Pastrnak is better goal scorer which would give him the edge. Either way what he thinks of himself or what others think of him doesn't really matter as much what data they could bring to try to prove that he's just as good or better than Pastrnak or Huberdeau.

If we compare the point percentages from the last 3-years (using the partial years for Pastrnak and to-date for Nylander) prior to signing and what they got this is what we get:


Pastrnak: 1.15 PPG (0.569 GPG) => 13.64 C.H %
Huberdeau: 1.08 PPG (0.304 GPG) => 12.73 C.H %
Nylander: 1.07 PPG ( 0.474 GPG) => ?



So, seeing that at his current pace, Nylander's body of work has him slightly below Huberdeau, he doesn't have much ability to ask for anywhere near Pastrak's cap %. He could maybe argue for slightly higher than Huberdeau's because he scores a lot more goals, so perhaps he argues for 12.73% of 88M = 11.2024M. That being said that doesn't mean the Leafs can afford that so if he wants that he'll probably have to seek it elsewhere. The Leafs need to be aware of Marner (1.26 PPG (0.409 GPG)) who could easily demand for a much larger cap % than Pastrnak (maybe Panarin's 14.29% would be Marner's camps ask), but even if we just use Pastrnak's 13.64% of 92M that's 12.5488M (at 14.29% = 13.1468M). So, it's pretty clear that the Leafs need to sign Nylander (if possible) at a cap hit % below Huberdeau's. Just looking at some of the guys that have similar point percentage to Nylander now, I found that Gaudreau had 1.07 PPG (0.370) => 11.82 C.H % (caveat: signed during a flat cap and he actually hit free agency, although I think Treliving offered him a slightly higher AAVx8 at the last minute). That would give Nylander a 10.4016M cap hit.

So, I wouldn't rule out a 10.4-11.2M cap hit for Nylander but it's more than likely that Toronto can't afford to give him anything in that upper range. Like you said, 10Mx8 or Huberdeau's 10.5M (or in that range) is more than likely.



He might push for more, but look how much Marner could demand, so the Leafs are more than likely not going to give him more than Marner's current contract unless the Leafs sign him in free agency after extending Marner at a team-friendly deal (below 12M-although 12.5M could be considered a discount). Only then he might get 11-11.25MX7 from Toronto, but likely he will go to some other team. It would suck to lose Nylander but if he wants a really huge cap hit then the best thing for him and the Leafs would be to part ways. Csick did and ACGM where the Leafs pay Nylander 11M and Marner 12.5M and it's not pretty. I won't say that the Leafs won't pay Nylander 11Mx8 or slightly more, but there's no way they do 11.888M. The higher the contract though, the more immovable it becomes if they ever need to trade Nylander even if he continues to put up 95+ points. On an 8-year deal, the Leafs would have a strong offer at 10M and at 10.6M, which would be the equivalent of him getting 11.25Mx7 in FA, then signing a 6Mx1 deal at 34.


Remember 6 years ago Nylander's camp was asking for Draisaitl money.

So Nylander's camp will be seeking Pasta money.

In another comment I suggested the magic number will be $88 x 8 years. I think we all can agree he can get $11 million at the pace he's going this year.

And honestly Nylander getting $11 million will only hurt for 1 season because if J.T. stays on with the Leafs he'll probably come in at $7 (maybe even as low as $5 if he signs a retirement length deal), so his $4 million discount goes to the young core 3.
Nov. 27, 2023 at 1:27 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
Remember 6 years ago Nylander's camp was asking for Draisaitl money.

So Nylander's camp will be seeking Pasta money.

In another comment I suggested the magic number will be $88 x 8 years. I think we all can agree he can get $11 million at the pace he's going this year.

And honestly Nylander getting $11 million will only hurt for 1 season because if J.T. stays on with the Leafs he'll probably come in at $7 (maybe even as low as $5 if he signs a retirement length deal), so his $4 million discount goes to the young core 3.


I honestly don't recall Nylander asking for 8.5M, I vaguely remember 7M or 7.5M maybe but not sure. It's not really relevant though.

Is Nylander asking for 11M now? Maybe. Could he get 11M? Maybe. Will he get 11M? Maybe. Is he worth 11M? Maybe. Should the Leafs sign him to 11M? Not really. Unless the Leafs are willing to prioritize keeping Nylander over Marner which I doubt they would. Or they don't have anything better to spend the money on, but they probably will like Bertuzzi + a couple of top 4 D + another non-budget goalie to play along with Woll. It's not just about next year, but also the one after that, remember Matthews only signed a 4-year contract, can't just waste half of that time.

The Leafs won't know what JT or Marner would want until July 1st, so unless Nylander is signing after and only getting 7-years, there really is no sense in giving him 11M, when:

1) The Leafs would bring Gaudreau as his similar and he might bring Huberdeau as his and they got 11.82 and 12.73% of the cap (which of 88M that's 10.4016M-11.2024M), assuming the reports were true the Leafs and him were like 1.5M apart and he was asking something in the 10s. So, if he wants to raise the price now that he is proven that he is worth X, doesn't make much sense for them to give in to those demands.

2) Teams that are contenders are probably not giving him the equivalent of an 88M contract via free agency. In fact, no team is likely giving him that.

3) If he gets 11.2x7 in FA that's only 78.4M, as a 34 yo FA he might make 5-7M but that's not guaranteed money, and he might be injured or washed by then. Even if you factor that in though, that's 83.4M-85.4M which is equivalent to 10.425M-10.675Mx8.

4) Finally, the Leafs should look for him to leave some money on the table, he might not want to but if he truly wants to stay a Leaf and actually have a competitive team, he should look to take less. Matthews is also perceived to have taken less, so he might. So, they should push for 10-10.25M, if it costs more then maybe that's when they start to think of walking away. If they ever have to trade him 11M would be pretty immovable.
Nov. 27, 2023 at 3:10 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: GMBL
I honestly don't recall Nylander asking for 8.5M, I vaguely remember 7M or 7.5M maybe but not sure. It's not really relevant though.

Is Nylander asking for 11M now? Maybe. Could he get 11M? Maybe. Will he get 11M? Maybe. Is he worth 11M? Maybe. Should the Leafs sign him to 11M? Not really. Unless the Leafs are willing to prioritize keeping Nylander over Marner which I doubt they would. Or they don't have anything better to spend the money on, but they probably will like Bertuzzi + a couple of top 4 D + another non-budget goalie to play along with Woll. It's not just about next year, but also the one after that, remember Matthews only signed a 4-year contract, can't just waste half of that time.

The Leafs won't know what JT or Marner would want until July 1st, so unless Nylander is signing after and only getting 7-years, there really is no sense in giving him 11M, when:

1) The Leafs would bring Gaudreau as his similar and he might bring Huberdeau as his and they got 11.82 and 12.73% of the cap (which of 88M that's 10.4016M-11.2024M), assuming the reports were true the Leafs and him were like 1.5M apart and he was asking something in the 10s. So, if he wants to raise the price now that he is proven that he is worth X, doesn't make much sense for them to give in to those demands.

2) Teams that are contenders are probably not giving him the equivalent of an 88M contract via free agency. In fact, no team is likely giving him that.

3) If he gets 11.2x7 in FA that's only 78.4M, as a 34 yo FA he might make 5-7M but that's not guaranteed money, and he might be injured or washed by then. Even if you factor that in though, that's 83.4M-85.4M which is equivalent to 10.425M-10.675Mx8.

4) Finally, the Leafs should look for him to leave some money on the table, he might not want to but if he truly wants to stay a Leaf and actually have a competitive team, he should look to take less. Matthews is also perceived to have taken less, so he might. So, they should push for 10-10.25M, if it costs more then maybe that's when they start to think of walking away. If they ever have to trade him 11M would be pretty immovable.


$13.25 for AM34
$12.25 for Marner
$10.5 for Nylander
$7 for J.T.

$43 million for the core 4, it's doable, considering the Leafs have been doing that for the past decade.

Just next year will be hard because the J.T. $4 million discount wouldn't be in effect yet.
Nov. 27, 2023 at 3:31 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
$13.25 for AM34
$12.25 for Marner
$10.5 for Nylander
$7 for J.T.

$43 million for the core 4, it's doable, considering the Leafs have been doing that for the past decade.

Just next year will be hard because the J.T. $4 million discount wouldn't be in effect yet.


Those numbers are a bit more palatable, it's ~2.5M more than they currently take and maybe JT could take something more like Pavelski's 5.5M from few years back, or Malkin or Giroux. If they gave Nylander 11M, then that would be a total of 3M which could be used to actually get a player. Every 100K is really going to count.

I would hope that they get something more like

11.75M (or 12M at most) Marner
10.5M Nylander
5M Tavares

which would put them at 40.5M for now. Matthews next contract is probably going to be massive if he re-signs in Toronto, and maybe Knies would be their 4th best player making like 7M. Let's pretend he goes for the largest NHL contract at 125M, so 15.625Mx8. The new 4 would cost 44.875M.
Nov. 27, 2023 at 3:43 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: GMBL
Those numbers are a bit more palatable, it's ~2.5M more than they currently take and maybe JT could take something more like Pavelski's 5.5M from few years back, or Malkin or Giroux. If they gave Nylander 11M, then that would be a total of 3M which could be used to actually get a player. Every 100K is really going to count.

I would hope that they get something more like

11.75M (or 12M at most) Marner
10.5M Nylander
5M Tavares

which would put them at 40.5M for now. Matthews next contract is probably going to be massive if he re-signs in Toronto, and maybe Knies would be their 4th best player making like 7M. Let's pretend he goes for the largest NHL contract at 125M, so 15.625Mx8. The new 4 would cost 44.875M.


The $7 for J.T. I used Kadri and Kopitar as examples, but yes if J.T. does really team friendly like the other players you mentioned, bonus.

I have a hard time envisioning AM34 playing his whole career in Toronto. I think Vegas or a NY state team or Flo state team signing him.

If the core 4 stay together than Bertuzzi will be for sure, one season and done in Toronto. Domi may stick around if he agrees to stay in the $3 million-ish range.
 
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