Overpaying

serevalli said campbell dump is a first and third at minimum and Broberg is in bust territory and honestly cashing out on him right now is probably the best thing to do

Holland won't pay a 1st to dump Campbell. He'll just buy him out this summer.

Yeah true enough if broberg is heading to bust territory

I think the only way a first is included in a Campbell-for-Merzlikins deal is if Columbus is retaining some percentage of Elvis' deal that opens up Edmonton's ability to carry more than a 21-man roster. Probably something like 30% of Elvis' deal? Keeps the cap hits for both clubs identical to how they are today.

Try him at forward. That's what he was originally.

You'd be asking Columbus to retain ~$1.6M per year for 3.75 years, and likely Campbell's buyout after this season? We're trying to compete as soon as next year, the 1st barely helps, and the extra cap hits just hamstring us. That's a big no-thanks.

I just said this on another similar ACGM, but IMO: Columbus counteroffers Merzlikins and Peeke for McLeod, Campbell, this year's unprotected 1st, and a 2025 3rd, with no retention anywhere. If we need to involve a third team to retain on Peeke, so be it, but Edmonton pays the mid/late-round pick to retain. Peeke for McLeod to make the salary more even, the 1st to dump Campbell's contract, and the 3rd to get Merzlikins (who's been great recently).

If you need a team to retain, it's not going to be Columbus. We've got enough picks and prospects, and the extra cap is too valuable right now and going forward. We've only got ~$3M in space right now as it is.

Not a chance. Elvis is already much better than Campbell. It’s be a first to dump Campbell then if you want elvis retained that’s another premium asset. Campbell is on one of the worst contracts in the league

No idea why some Oilers fans think the Jackets would stick by Elvis through the awful last couple years he has had, get him a new goalie coach, and rebuild the defense in front of him just to trade him for the worst goalie in the league at the first signs of him turning his game around.

I think I was hasty and didn't clarify properly: I fully expect Edmonton to offer some sort of asset(s) in a Campbell-for-Elvis swap regardless of there being retention simply because of how bad Campbell has been within the last calendar year.

Zooming out tells a very, very different story: Jackie owns a 0.909sv% in 176GP while Elvis has a 0.907sv% in 167GP (I don't believe this stat includes tonight's game). The two are effectively identical assets if we just look at the counting numbers. Campbell has been putrid in Edmonton yes, but Elvis has been pretty much as bad over that same stretch of time. Campbell is marginally cheaper, Merzlikins is marginally younger. Why is the expectation that Edmonton pays a king's ransom for a virtually identical asset?

As it stands I don't see how the deal extends beyond Campbell and a third round pick for Merzlikins straight-up. If the intention of the Blue Jackets is to buy Campbell out at the first available opportunity, that's fine, but it's their prerogative, not Edmonton's. I don't think that can be looked at as a legitimate part of the deal given that the earliest opportunity to do so is an entire half-year away. Is a Martin/Tarasov tandem better for Columbus? I have no idea. I think discounting the idea that a Blue Jackets squad already looking to punt on the season not kicking the tires on Campbell and giving him some runway because you think the player stinks today is a bit short-sighted.

I fully agree that withholding salary is going to cost an asset or two, which is why I stated that the only feasible way I see Columbus getting any sort of first round pick in this sort of deal is if they are retaining somewhere around that $1.6M annually. It cost the Leafs a first round pick for the Hurricanes to eat a $6.25M cap hit (Marleau), and I'm offering an equivalent asset for doing less of a favour for Edmonton as that 30% figure results in an even $6M over the life of the deal.

Provided that the league appears to be out of the flat-cap era, I don't think the twin sources of dead cap should hurt the Jackets too much, the final year of the retention lands in the first year of Fantilli's and Jiricek's new deals, and there should be at least $10M more on the salary cap than there is today. The deals to Gudbranson, and Peeke (assuming all three are replaced with prospects) and the Wennberg buyout are expired before this point. I can't see the likes of Bean, Boqvist, and Kuraly not being replaced with cheaper players (prospects?) and I don't see Jenner or Provorov commanding too much more than they already do. I have a feeling the Jackets will be fine in the long run, even if they intend on retaining up to 50% of Merzlikins' deal.

The Jackets do not have any history of taking cap dumps and they wouldn't buy out Campbell or pay him to play in the minors.
Elvis is looking much better this year and I think the Jackets will keep him. Oilers can buy out Campbell in the offseason if he doesn't turn it around.

Elvis has played behind the worst defense in hockey the last 3 years though

A lot of people feel similarly about the Leafs blueline that Campbell played behind as well.

Both men are currently at/near the lowest points of their careers. This league is very "what have you done for me lately", and right now Elvis isn't putting up the kinds of counting numbers that match what you're describing.

Do I think my proposal of Campbell and a third is a bit too objective? Probably. But it's not off by a large margin. Subjectively I think a third and some middling prospect probably gets the job done, hinging completely on how the Jackets' management feels about Merzlikins at this very second.

I'd only make the above deal if Columbus is retaining that 30% I mentioned earlier, and I'd probably offer Bourgault instead of Broberg.

Don't you think that if all it cost to dump 5 mil for 4 years was a 1st and 3rd the Oilers would have done that already?! 1 year of Marleau cost the Leafs a 1st and the deal had the Canes buying out his contract, do you seriously think three more years is only worth a 3rd? I know one thing for sure if all I was being offered was a 1st and 3rd, I would never deal with the Oilers again! Even when his buyout is only 1.1 mil next year the next 2 years after that are 2.3 and 2.6 mil that's not insignificant, especially for a smaller market team trying to contend

I'm not going to quote everything from you're pretty fair assessment across the board, just wanted to respond to a couple of items.



Goalies are, more than other players, a "what have you done for me lately" position. Even if they've got similar numbers over the past few seasons on average, Elvis has been on one of the worst teams in hockey with one of the worst defensive systems, all while personally struggling with the death of his very close friend and being a new father. Campbell has played on two of the best teams in hockey over those years, with arguably the best forward cores league-wide (and, admittedly, some of the most questionable defensive). They get compared because of similar age and contracts, but calling them identical assets ignores a lot of the nuanced context.

Edmonton is expected to pay a king's ransom because he's been so unprecedentedly, unusably, incomparably bad...even though I'd expect (and hope) he rebounds...on a team right against the cap with incredible pressure to win now, with no other options. Teams are looking to take advantage of that. If you're struggling, the rest of the league doesn't throw you a life vest, they throw you an anchor.



I think Columbus balks at just a 3rd-rounder for Campbell. Even if Columbus is punting on this season, there's no reason to swap your starter who's been lights-out this season for a project goalie who may or may not return to form unless you get a massive haul to do so. If Edmonton walks away, that's fine, we're not the ones who need to make a move. And a buyout is something that CBJ have to consider and factor into the total cost of acquisition, which Edmonton pays for whether or not they're told they are.



It cost the Leafs a 1st to get Carolina to eat $6.25M four years ago. Asking the same price now, given the flat cap issues, plus the fact that it's $6M over 3+ seasons (which is worse because now you're also eating up 1 of 3 retention slots for an extended period) is optimistic, to say the least.



That might be the case, but you can't make cap-related moves now with the hope things will be fine 3 years from now. The team, and the whole front office, could look entirely different by then. And most importantly, teams like Edmonton and Toronto are showing exactly why cap space is so critical, and making moves with long-term cap implications is so dangerous. To bail Edmonton out of their self-created cap issues, and also risk being in the exact same position down the line, Columbus should demand a ransom imo.



I think Columbus, and specifically Jarmo (who's a tough trade negotiator and currently fighting for his own job) outright rejects that, simply because it would be a move that hurts us in the short term without significantly improving the long-term.