Start the rebuild

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Created by: BluesReport18

Team: 2023-24 St. Louis Blues

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 19, 2024

Published: Jan. 19, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

It's pretty clear the "new coach effect" has worn off for this team. Back to being lazy and boring. Either way the Blues all but assured to miss the playoffs and should turn their attention to developing young players and gaining more assets for the future.

Realistically Buch is the only trade piece with high end value. He better bring back a great return otherwise we'll be screwed. I don't think signing him is the right move. Even though he's a clear cut first liner he doesn't fit our window to win the cup.

Players that need to be traded in my opinion (order of value) consist of:

Buch: Again, nothing against the player we just need high value in return. Fans on this site hate giving up high end prospects/picks but if Buch is traded for it's going to cost some team a lot. Fans won't be happy with pieces they lose.

Faulk: Faulk is a very good top 4 defender. He's hurt right now and going to take a lot of hate from Blues fans until he is fully recovered. When he's healthy he is a very solid #3 dman for a team and I think a lot of contenders would be interested in him if they can afford his salary. It would be wise for the Blues to move him as he doesn't fit our window and we have Kessel who has shined this year.

Hayes: Hayes hasn't lived up to any of the hype and I'm not really surprised. We also don't have the best supporting cast for him so he could be better elsewhere. For some reason teams always love him though and it seems like if the Blues retain 50% of his deal, they should get a nice return. Now how nice of a return is that? Does that mean first round pick? Or does it mean 3rd round pick and a mid level prospect. I would hope for something in the middle.

Saad: At this point Saad is really an overpaid middle 6 winger. He just doesn't fit the Blues style of play and would look better on a team like Carolina or Colorado. The problem is those teams likely can't afford him. Maybe we swap him for another player on a similar contract in hopes that both succeed in new locations. The Blues could absorb 50% of Saads deal and likely get a 2nd for him but I don't see that happening. He also has a NTC which doesn't help his value either.

Pending UFAs: I'm going to put Scandella, Kapanen, and Blais into this category. They're all pieces that a contender would be interested in to help round out their depth. They also won't cost a lot as they all have the value of a mid to late round pick or low level prospect. Also maybe some team takes a look at Vrana but at this point I highly doubt it unless the Blues retain 50% and why would they do that for a player that would return next to nothing. I don't think Sunny will be traded but if some team came in with a great offer like a 2nd I would say yes. I'm not sure many, if any teams, will evaluate Sunny as highly as the Blues do.

Krug: Krug has been okay this year. If he was your 3rd pair dman you'd be fine with it. The problem is he makes 6.5 million so he can't play 3rd pair. If the Blues retained 50% of his deal they'd still get next to nothing for him but I think if he's making 3.25 some team would be interested in him, maybe Boston. Krug also dictates where he goes and I don't think he's going to be very willing to move.

Schenn: 4 years left at 6.5 will turn ugly quickly. He just hasn't been himself this year. No physical play, no effort or high compete, just nothing positive. He looks 3 steps behind most games. I think fans can see that but maybe another teams management would think they're getting the old Schenn in a trade. The blues would have to eat a salary dump in return and I just think at this point it would be very hard to move Schenn especially because he has a NTC.

Leddy: If a team is smart, they'll stay very far away from Leddy. The Blues just need to buy him out at this point. His buyout is cheap too. Or find a not so smart GM that sees Leddys average minutes this year and thinks he's still a top 4 defender.

Looking at the trades the Krug deal might be a bit much but still the fact is I would try to trade him to Boston 50% retained. I think that's the only place he accepts a trade to and I think the only contender that would want him. The return doesn't really matter besides the fact that we have to take salary back.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Chmelevski, Alexander		2	$950,000

Trades

STL

Kuzmenko, Andrei
Lekkerimäki, Jonathan
2024 1st round pick (VAN)

Additional Details:

This is just sort of the package I want. I don't think the Blues will get an elite defensive prospect in a Buch trade simply because teams value them so much. So in the case of Vancouver of course I want Willander but they're not trading him. No reason to turn to Brzustewicz just because we need a dman. I'm not trading for a guy that we directly passed on. I'm a huge fan of Brzustewicz, but still he was taken in the 3rd round and is on a powerhouse team in the juniors. I don't view him as having 1st round value right now.

I know this deal seems like a ton, and that's because it is. That's simply how much I think it takes to get Buch, call me crazy but look how much Meier got. I also don't view Kuzmenko as that exciting of a piece he's more there for salary and because Buch replaces him in the lineup.

VAN

Buchnevich, Pavel

STL

Buium, Shai [Reserve List]
Määttä, Olli
Söderblom, Elmer
2024 2nd round pick (DET)

Additional Details:

If Detroit loses out on Roy this offseason I think they could be interested in Faulk as he is on the same tier as Roy in my opinion. Buium might not sign with Detroit and Soderblom didn't make the team and won't make it any time soon the way Detroit develops prospects. He's also struggling greatly in the AHL this year. Maatta is okay but included for salary.

Not the best return for Faulk but the 2nd round pick increases the value.

Dallas also comes to mind for teams Faulk would fit great on.

DET

Faulk, Justin

STL

2024 2nd round pick (NYR)

Additional Details:

I think the Rangers would make this deal. Cheap cost for a solid 3C that they've already had experience with.

On another note Rangers fans, any chance Cuylle is available in a trade? He looked great in the Blues vs Rangers game but doesn't seem to get a lot of ice time.

NYR

Hayes, Kevin ($1,785,714 retained)

STL

Smith, Reilly

Additional Details:

Swap as discussed in caption. Send Saad home. Smith gets a change of scenery. Blues take on more salary, but Smith has one less year on his deal.

PIT

Saad, Brandon

STL

Robertson, Nicholas

Additional Details:

Blues take a shot on a young player with skill, Toronto gets 2 playoff style players that will help for their cup run. Toronto sends a 5th to another team to retain 50% on Kaps contract. I've proposed this deal before and I like it for both sides.

TOR

Kapanen, Kasperi
Scandella, Marco ($1,637,500 retained)

STL

Forbort, Derek
Grzelcyk, Matt
2026 2nd round pick (BOS)

Additional Details:

Forbot accepts to get more playing time in a contract year.
Krug steps in to a familiar team with Boston and helps them for their cup run.
The 2nd is far off but again the Blues won't get something amazing for Krug it's more for taking back Grzelcyk and Forbort. Krug is the better defender out of those 3.

BOS

Krug, Torey ($3,250,000 retained)

STL

2024 5th round pick (NJD)

Additional Details:

With all their injuries they just need a body on defense.

NJD

Grzelcyk, Matt

STL

2025 5th round pick (SJS)

FLA

Blais, Samuel

STL

Chmelevski, Alexander [Reserve List]

Additional Details:

This swap just seems good to me. Chmelevski gets to play top 6 for the Blues and Alexandrov could push top 6 on the Sharks. Win-win.

SJS

Alexandrov, Nikita

Retained Salary Transactions

Kevin Hayes: $1,785,714 (50%)
Marco Scandella: $1,637,500 (50%)
Torey Krug: $3,250,000 (50%)

Buried

Jakub Vrána: $1,475,000 ($2,625,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$83,500,000	$74,187,797	$20,000	$57,500	$9,312,203

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Neighbours, Jake $835,833$835,833 LW, RW RFA - 2	Thomas, Robert $8,125,000$8,125,000 C, RW UFA - 8	Kyrou, Jordan $8,125,000$8,125,000 RW UFA - 8
Kuzmenko, Andrei $5,500,000$5,500,000 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 2	Chmelevski, Alexander $950,000$950,000 C RFA	Robertson, Nicholas $796,667$796,667 LW, RW RFA - 1
Smith, Reilly $5,000,000$5,000,000 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 2	Schenn, Brayden $6,500,000$6,500,000 C, LW NTC UFA - 5	Söderblom, Elmer $878,333$878,333 ($57,500$58K) LW, C RFA - 2
Toropchenko, Alexey $1,250,000$1,250,000 LW, RW RFA - 2	Sundqvist, Oskar $775,000$775,000 RW, C UFA - 1	Walker, Nathan $775,000$775,000 LW UFA - 1
	Gaudette, Adam $775,000$775,000 C, RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Määttä, Olli $3,000,000$3,000,000 LD UFA - 2	Parayko, Colton $6,500,000$6,500,000 RD NTC UFA - 7	Binnington, Jordan $6,000,000$6,000,000 G NTC UFA - 4
Perunovich, Scott $775,000$775,000 LD RFA - 1	Kessel, Matthew $883,750$883,750 RD RFA - 1	Hofer, Joel $775,000$775,000 G RFA - 2
Forbort, Derek $3,000,000$3,000,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 1	Tucker, Tyler $800,000$800,000 LD/RD RFA - 2
Leddy, Nick $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD NTC UFA - 3

Jan. 19 at 4:03 p.m.

NYR1983

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 6,307

Likes: 2,551

If Chytil wasn’t returning I would definitely consider it!

SomeonesOffended and BluesReport18 liked this.

Jan. 19 at 4:03 p.m.

Warpbox

Joined: Jul. 2022

Posts: 3,145

Likes: 2,244

You aren't getting Lekkerimaki either

cooliny, Jim_Benning_Almost, remowilliams and 3 others liked this.

Jan. 19 at 4:04 p.m.

HolyJumpin81

Joined: Feb. 2021

Posts: 454

Likes: 248

I think conceptually this makes sense. I'm not really commenting on the trades themselves, but if we were to hypothetically start a rebuild this is the right idea.

A_K, SomeonesOffended and Mediumyeet liked this.

Jan. 19 at 4:12 p.m.

SomeonesOffended

FKA Bigtittielarper

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 7,750

Likes: 2,231

That’s gonna be a maybe from the leafs

Jan. 19 at 4:21 p.m.

justinhollfan3

Joined: Feb. 2023

Posts: 457

Likes: 120

Do a pick instead of Kapanen and it would be better, not sure what the leafs stance on robertson is right now.

Jan. 19 at 4:33 p.m.

Mediumyeet

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 3,620

Likes: 1,319

Blues won't get a top prospect for Buch. It is very rare that a team trades their top prospect. You referenced the Meier trade but even that didn't have any of NJD top prospects involved. If you are looking at Vancouver the best prospect you will get will be from that second tier after Lekkerimaki and Willander which is Brustewicz, D-Petey, Raty, Podkolzin.

At best you are probably looking at something like 2024 1st + Kuzmenko + Brustewicz + a conditional pick.

If Buch is Van's primary target they might be willing to do something like 2024 1st + 2025 2nd(becomes a first if Van makes the conference final) + Kuzmenko + Brustewicz FOR Buchnevich + Kapanen(50% retention).

I'm not sure Van would be willing to give all of that up but I think it is in the ballpark IF they are locked in on getting Buch.

mv21227 liked this.

Jan. 19 at 4:38 p.m.

Redwingsfan94

Joined: Dec. 2023

Posts: 49

Likes: 16

Wow, thats an interesting trade for the red wings. Depends if GhostBear returns or not if these are off-season deals. I like moving Maata and the 2nd, im a little hesitant moving Buium AND Soderblom, I think you can make due with adding either of two lvl B prospects but not both if youre taking 6.5mil for the next 3yrs. Wings might have ASP their 23 draft pick RHD up by then and still unfortunately have Holl for another 2 after this.

Buium could be a good bottom pairing dman in the NHL down the road and Soderblom just needs to play more consistent. Its not a development thing, its unfortunately the player. Same thing with Anthony Mantha.

Wings say no. The cap, term and M-NTC that kicks in25-26 for a now 31yr old Faulk scares me and probably Yzerman as well.

Might as well try to sign GhostBear for another 3yrs for the same price or less

BluesReport18 and aedoran liked this.

Jan. 19 at 4:38 p.m.

AC14

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 2,837

Likes: 1,445

Quoting: Mediumyeet

It depends on where you draw the line at a top prospect. Mukhmadullin was a recent 20 OA. Lekkerimaki 14, Willander 11. The Devils also got 2 firsts in that trade and a young goal scorer in Zetterlund.

Jan. 19 at 4:45 p.m.

BluesReport18

Thread Starter

Joined: Feb. 2023

Posts: 220

Likes: 38

Quoting: Mediumyeet

Fair but in the Meier deal San Jose took quantity over quality. They got a TON in return for him. Nothing that would scream first liner but still a lot of important pieces for a team. I think if I was looking at a one for one comparison of the trades it would be something like:
To Vancouver:
Buch = Meier
Kap 50% retained = all the AHL players that got moved from San Jose to New Jersey
To St. Louis:
Podkolzin = Zetterlund
Woo = Okhotiuk
Brzustewicz = Mukhamadullin
2024 1st
2025 2nd

Again, that's a TON. I feel like they would almost rather lose Lekkermaki than all that but maybe not. I would take the above offer as the Blues as well if they want to go the quantity over quality approach.

Mediumyeet liked this.

Jan. 19 at 4:53 p.m.

#10

Mediumyeet

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 3,620

Likes: 1,319

Quoting: BluesReport18

I think they likely took the quantity over quality because nobody is willing to give up their top prospects. I agree with your breakdown of a trade comparable though (Kuzmenko would have to be involved or moved elsewhere without any cap coming back). You need to factor in that Meier was 26 at the time of the trade turning 27 in October plus 50% retention (retention could be offset by the remaining year on Buch though) and Buch is 28 turning 29 in April.

Canucks would prefer the package you suggested over giving up Lekkerimaki though it might be too rich of package for them still. It would potentially be dependent on what type of return they can get for Kuzmenko in a separate deal. If they can actually get something of value there then this is a little more palpable.

BluesReport18 liked this.

Jan. 19 at 5:01 p.m.

#11

Mediumyeet

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 3,620

Likes: 1,319

Quoting: AC14

Devils only gave up one first and a 2nd that had a condition to become a first but the condition wasn't met. Mukhamdullin was a 20OA pick but not anywhere near the pedigree of Lekkerimaki or Willander and was also listed as their roughly 5-8th top prospect behind Hughes, Nemec, and Casey for dmen. He's much more in the prospect range of Raty, D-Petey, Brustewicz than he is Lekkerimaki or Willander.

As I mentioned in my other reply above, you also have to factor in that Meier was 26 at the time of the trade and turning 27 in October where Buch is 28 and turning 29 in April.

Jan. 19 at 5:15 p.m.

#12

BluesReport18

Thread Starter

Joined: Feb. 2023

Posts: 220

Likes: 38

Quoting: Mediumyeet

I think to me San Jose took the quantity over quality because of how thin their prospect pool was. The Blues have a lot of prospects and would probably prefer to go with a high end prospect over a bunch of middle end prospects. I agree that Meier being 2 years younger boosts his value but then again Buch has the extra year on his deal and will likely come with a cheaper extension because of his age. As for Kuzmenko, I feel like he could get around a 2nd to maybe a team like Arizona that has a ton of picks and could take a chance on him. To the Blues he would be more of a cap dump but even in the quantity over quality trade you could probably put him in over the 2nd round pick and the Blues could move him from there or just keep him and give him a chance.
All good thoughts though I think at the end of the day it makes a lot of sense for Vancouver to be interested in Buch and it makes a lot of sense for St. Louis to be interested in what Vancouver has to offer.

Mediumyeet liked this.

Jan. 19 at 5:20 p.m.

#13

Mediumyeet

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 3,620

Likes: 1,319

Quoting: BluesReport18

Ya it's definitely possible that was SJS thinking. We will never know really.

I agree that Van and Buch would be a good fit and there is a deal to be had there of some variety.

Jan. 19 at 5:44 p.m.

#14

AC14

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 2,837

Likes: 1,445

Quoting: Mediumyeet

Can you tell me what the difference is between 26 with worse stats and the same amount of team control albeit at a higher rate? At the end of the day you're going to get both for around 6-8 years at 8-9 million.

And i would disagree with your assessment of Mukmahdullin. He was deeper in the Devils pool, but that's because the devils pool was incredible. They had multiple high end picks in a row solely based off of draft position. Regardless Muk was always a large framed solid skating project that projected really well into a top 4 role as his skills refined. I guess you could say the same about Pettersson, i'm just not sure you could say the same about Bruscewitz. Raty is up for discussion I could see him being inbetween the two.

Moreover, I'm not sold on a guy that was picked 76th being shot up due to offensive production on the backend when everyone knew he was capable of that. Heck Dragicevic had a comparable year in his draft year and was pushed back until pick 57.

Jan. 19 at 6:00 p.m.

#15

Mediumyeet

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 3,620

Likes: 1,319

Quoting: AC14

Mukhamdullin is definitely more similar to D-Petey in terms of projectability than Brustewicz. Brustewicz is still an equal tier prospect IMO but definitely a completely different style of player.

Age is still a factor even with the high salary on the extension. The devils are getting what should be more prime years out of Meier through his mid to late 20's where as Buch you are getting the latter years of his prime which also makes an extension a bigger risk factor. So the difference is (assuming an extension with Buch as well) Meier you have for his 27 to 34yr old seasons at 8.8mil and Buch on extension (and I'll include next season on the current deal) is his 29-37ish year old seasons at 8-9mil (assuming that is the extension price).

I really like Buch and think he would be a great fit in Van but largely due to the age discrepancy I don't think he is quite on par with Meier as an acquisition cost. If the blues move him I still expect them to get a very strong return though. Probably something between the Horvat trade price (which would essentially be Kuz + Bruz/D-Petey/Raty + 1st) and the Meier trade price.

AC14 liked this.

Jan. 19 at 6:51 p.m.

#16

Dickie_Dunn

Joined: May 2021

Posts: 1,036

Likes: 269

Yawn........Canucks pass.

Jan. 19 at 7:09 p.m.

#17

AC14

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 2,837

Likes: 1,445

Quoting: Mediumyeet

That's fair, I think you could see though where Brustcewitz and Van 1st for 2 years versus the one year for Horvat getting a much better 1st and depending on who you ask a similar or better prospect shouldn't cut it though. You're essentially getting a 2 year rental that's at a very affordable cost for what the player brings. Especially if retention is factored in.

Jan. 19 at 9:51 p.m.

#18

aedoran

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 21,814

Likes: 12,108

Quoting: Redwingsfan94

I don't think consistency is what is holding Soderblom back its strength and that takes time to do it correctly. Being able to keep guys at bay giving him room to make plays is what made him successful in order leagues. Look at Tage Thompson he went through the same thing

Jan. 19 at 10:26 p.m.

#19

PensGMwannabe

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 645

Likes: 292

I could see Saad for Smith type of deal. Makes sense. Smith hasn't fit in. Saad a hometown boy etc. Similar salary.

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