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Jenner - What will it take

Created by: Mr_Gardoki
Team: 2023-24 Pittsburgh Penguins
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 26, 2024
Published: Jan. 26, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Clearly everyone has heard the reports that CBJ is listening to offers on a bunch of players. Jenner has received a lot of interest, but being how much he means to the team it's not very likely he gets dealt.

With that said, CBJ fans, without doing the capfriendly-overvalue-dance, what would it take to get him?
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    23$83,500,000$85,454,342$0$0-$1,954,342
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    G
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    RD
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    $775,000$775,000
    LD
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    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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    $900,000$900,000
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    UFA - 2
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    $775,000$775,000
    LD
    RFA - 2

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    Jan. 26 at 11:26 a.m.
    #1
    Trad Breliving
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    Be prepared. CBL fans severely overate his value
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    Jan. 26 at 11:28 a.m.
    #2
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    Quoting: Leafs_Fan3416
    Be prepared. CBL fans severely overate his value


    Oh I know. I put the disclaimer, but I'll still get the crazy "It will never happen! Send everything you have!"

    There likely will have to be a slight overpay for CBJ to move him, but it should be slight.
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    Jan. 26 at 11:39 a.m.
    #3
    Friedman for Norris
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    Boone jenner is absolutely untouchable but if we had to trade him i might consider taking crosby 6 firsts 7 2nds guentzel yager and pickering
    Jan. 26 at 11:46 a.m.
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    I'm assuming this discussion pops up again because of Dreger's report, where he explicitly stated Jenner isn't available. Welcome to the never-ending discussion.

    The long: he's a captain on a sweetheart deal with term who's producing well with a unique, valuable skillset. The keys to his value are:
    1) he's a decent 2C, great 3C, which every playoff team needs
    2) He's on an amazing deal that every playoff team could accommodate
    3) His great deal has term, so he's not a rental, which every playoff team with aspirations of competing beyond just this year loves.
    4) His current team signed him to said sweetheart deal specifically to keep him around, and has no desire to move him.

    Each of those bump his value up since you have to convince Columbus to move him, then beat out every other contender's offer. It's not like he's a depressed asset we have to move that only has a handful of landing spots. The argument is never "Jenner is one of the best centers in the league, pay us for him!", it's "Jenner has a huge market and fills a need for tons of teams, and that spikes his value regardless of his (still good) production, that's what you're overpaying for."

    He's a Horvat style player who wins faceoffs like Lindholm and scores goals like Pavelski, but you can have him for this year and the next two at current Evan Bouchard money if you make a good enough offer to convince Columbus it's worth moving their unicorn.

    You'll see people argue anything ranging from "expiring 3C UFA with 15 points" offers to "star 1C for the rest of time" demands. I think in reality, the Horvat deal + ??? is a decent comp: 1st, roster player/pick, good prospect. If Columbus deals him, we need a legitimate shot at replacing him soon coming back, so center prospects are preferred. Because of the deal, roster player/pick -> 2nd-equivalent, and good prospect -> top prospect.

    So, IMO, it takes: 1st, 2nd, A+/top prospect to land him.

    For Pittsburgh specifically, I don't think there's an A+ prospect in the organization, and we definitely don't want to see him in Pittsburgh ever (main rival in-division), so the price goes up more...so 2024 2nd, 2025 1st, and 2026 1st, all unprotected.
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    Jan. 26 at 11:50 a.m.
    #5
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    If they do move him, I don’t see them sending him to Pittsburgh at all.
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    Jan. 26 at 11:52 a.m.
    #6
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    Quoting: CaseyFlyman
    I'm assuming this discussion pops up again because of Dreger's report, where he explicitly stated Jenner isn't available. Welcome to the never-ending discussion.

    The long: he's a captain on a sweetheart deal with term who's producing well with a unique, valuable skillset. The keys to his value are:
    1) he's a decent 2C, great 3C, which every playoff team needs
    2) He's on an amazing deal that every playoff team could accommodate
    3) His great deal has term, so he's not a rental, which every playoff team with aspirations of competing beyond just this year loves.
    4) His current team signed him to said sweetheart deal specifically to keep him around, and has no desire to move him.

    Each of those bump his value up since you have to convince Columbus to move him, then beat out every other contender's offer. It's not like he's a depressed asset we have to move that only has a handful of landing spots. The argument is never "Jenner is one of the best centers in the league, pay us for him!", it's "Jenner has a huge market and fills a need for tons of teams, and that spikes his value regardless of his (still good) production, that's what you're overpaying for."

    He's a Horvat style player who wins faceoffs like Lindholm and scores goals like Pavelski, but you can have him for this year and the next two at current Evan Bouchard money if you make a good enough offer to convince Columbus it's worth moving their unicorn.

    You'll see people argue anything ranging from "expiring 3C UFA with 15 points" offers to "star 1C for the rest of time" demands. I think in reality, the Horvat deal + ??? is a decent comp: 1st, roster player/pick, good prospect. If Columbus deals him, we need a legitimate shot at replacing him soon coming back, so center prospects are preferred. Because of the deal, roster player/pick -> 2nd-equivalent, and good prospect -> top prospect.

    So, IMO, it takes: 1st, 2nd, A+/top prospect to land him.

    For Pittsburgh specifically, I don't think there's an A+ prospect in the organization, and we definitely don't want to see him in Pittsburgh ever (main rival in-division), so the price goes up more...so 2024 2nd, 2025 1st, and 2026 1st, all unprotected.


    First off, scrap the attitude. I did a perfectly fine disclaimer in the description WHICH YOU CLEARLY DIDN'T READ.

    Second, just be happy anyone is even talking about the Jackets. They are one of the worst run teams in hockey and probably won't be a playoff team for another decade.

    Third, that offer is absolutely absurd.

    While I concede for the Jackets to move him would take a SLIGHT overpay, it would be slight. That return your showing is for an elite player, so stop it.
    Jan. 26 at 11:54 a.m.
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    Quoting: JuanDamienNebraska
    If they do move him, I don’t see them sending him to Pittsburgh at all.


    I guess you're another who didn't read the disclaimer.
    Jan. 26 at 11:58 a.m.
    #8
    Dolzhenkov Is Coming
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    Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
    First off, scrap the attitude. I did a perfectly fine disclaimer in the description WHICH YOU CLEARLY DIDN'T READ.

    Second, just be happy anyone is even talking about the Jackets. They are one of the worst run teams in hockey and probably won't be a playoff team for another decade.

    Third, that offer is absolutely absurd.

    While I concede for the Jackets to move him would take a SLIGHT overpay, it would be slight. That return your showing is for an elite player, so stop it.


    Good job showing you had no interest in ever having a real conversation. Maybe next time check your own BS attitude and keep the trash talk out of it if you want to have a discussion.
    Jan. 26 at 12:00 p.m.
    #9
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    Quoting: dk325
    Good job showing you had no interest in ever having a real conversation. Maybe next time check your own BS attitude and keep the trash talk out of it if you want to have a discussion.


    I have no interest in discussing anything with someone who off the bat just brings attitude and talks to me like a dick and clearly to you, me disagreeing with his offer means I don't want to have a discussion? Interesting.
    Jan. 26 at 12:03 p.m.
    #10
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    Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
    I guess you're another who didn't read the disclaimer.


    Your disclaimer is a moot point and doesn’t even address what I’m referring to. I’m not even saying that he means too much to the team to move, which very well may be the case, I’m saying they won’t move him within the division to a team that has historically had their number. There’s no point in even discussing it really, for a number of reasons. Pens shouldn’t be spending top assets right now anyways.
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    Jan. 26 at 12:04 p.m.
    #11
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    Quoting: JuanDamienNebraska
    Your disclaimer is a moot point and doesn’t even address what I’m referring to. I’m not saying that he means too much to the team to move, which very well may be the case, I’m saying they won’t move him within the division to a team that has historically had their number. There’s no point in even discussing it really, for a number of reasons. Pens shouldn’t be spending top assets right now anyways.


    My disclaimer addresses everything. This thread is simply designed to gauge value. Also, the days of these forbidden inter-division trades are pretty much gone.
    Jan. 26 at 12:05 p.m.
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    i love when people ask "what will it take" and then get mad that the answer is "an absolutely embarrassing overpay" when the answer is "an absolutely embarrassing overpay"

    caseyflyman is correct. it doesnt matter if boone is or isnt worth that. that is what it will take for us to trade him. you have to beat jarmo over the head with a deal so good he physically cannot refuse.

    toronto gave up a first and a fourth for foligno RENTAL 3 years ago and then another 4th for sjs to retain part of fligs on the way. and it still wasn't a guarantee that jarmo was moving him! boone is more valuable on the ice and more valuable as a contract than fliggy was back then.

    again - and i cannot stress this enough - we know that boone is not a super duper star. he is worth less on the ice than guys like lindy and chychrun and saros and other trade bait out there right now. but with the very advantageous contract and his leadership position on this team and the fact that we do not want to move him - you only get him if you're outrageous.

    if you don't want to hear from crazy blue jackets fans about what it would take, then stop asking the question that has already been answered in the media a million times.

    if your question is "pretend we're in a world where boone wants to move or jarmo is more open to it" - then the answer is more than a first and a fourth. jarmo's benchmark is gonna be the foligno trade. so probably a first and a second.
    Jan. 26 at 12:06 p.m.
    #13
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    Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
    First off, scrap the attitude. I did a perfectly fine disclaimer in the description WHICH YOU CLEARLY DIDN'T READ.

    Second, just be happy anyone is even talking about the Jackets. They are one of the worst run teams in hockey and probably won't be a playoff team for another decade.

    Third, that offer is absolutely absurd.

    While I concede for the Jackets to move him would take a SLIGHT overpay, it would be slight. That return your showing is for an elite player, so stop it.


    "worst run teams in hockey" coming from the only professional sports team to be bankrupt twice lol

    realistic trade value, contending late 1st, mid round pick and mid prospect, or mid round pick and high prospect. Like a slightly cheaper return than Giroux got
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    Jan. 26 at 12:08 p.m.
    #14
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    Quoting: JacketsComrade
    i love when people ask "what will it take" and then get mad that the answer is "an absolutely embarrassing overpay" when the answer is "an absolutely embarrassing overpay"

    caseyflyman is correct. it doesnt matter if boone is or isnt worth that. that is what it will take for us to trade him. you have to beat jarmo over the head with a deal so good he physically cannot refuse.

    toronto gave up a first and a fourth for foligno RENTAL 3 years ago and then another 4th for sjs to retain part of fligs on the way. and it still wasn't a guarantee that jarmo was moving him! boone is more valuable on the ice and more valuable as a contract than fliggy was back then.

    again - and i cannot stress this enough - we know that boone is not a super duper star. he is worth less on the ice than guys like lindy and chychrun and saros and other trade bait out there right now. but with the very advantageous contract and his leadership position on this team and the fact that we do not want to move him - you only get him if you're outrageous.

    if you don't want to hear from crazy blue jackets fans about what it would take, then stop asking the question that has already been answered in the media a million times.

    if your question is "pretend we're in a world where boone wants to move or jarmo is more open to it" - then the answer is more than a first and a fourth. jarmo's benchmark is gonna be the foligno trade. so probably a first and a second.


    I don't understand your rationale here. You love when people ask questions, but then it's wrong to disagree? So to you, if I ask value, I have just accept what everyone says in order to live up to my question? That really doesn't make any sense.

    I'm perfectly entitled to ask questions and disagree with them. At some point, there will be a level-headed fan who can have a discussion. Clearly you're not one of them.

    Also, a 1st and 4th is a very different offer than what the other guy stated, which is a far more reasonable offer.
    Jan. 26 at 12:08 p.m.
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    Quoting: AndrewPawlack
    realistic trade value, contending late 1st and mid prospect, or mid round pick and high prospect


    if jarmo got a first and fourth out of expiring 33 y/o foligno, he's not taking this for 30 y/o boone w/term.
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    Jan. 26 at 12:09 p.m.
    #16
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    Quoting: AndrewPawlack
    "worst run teams in hockey" coming from the only professional sports team to be bankrupt twice lol

    realistic trade value, contending late 1st and mid prospect, or mid round pick and high prospect


    Yeah, the Pens were run by crooks and it was fixed. Three cups since, four cup appearances, just ended what was the longest running playoff streaks in all of pro sports and one of the most successful franchises in hockey, so yeah...

    As far as the value, I think that sounds fair.
    Jan. 26 at 12:11 p.m.
    #17
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    Quoting: JacketsComrade
    if jarmo got a first and fourth out of expiring 33 y/o foligno, he's not taking this for 30 y/o boone w/term.


    I understand looking back at benchmarks, but they're not all relevant to every single trade. If we used the Chiarot trade for every rental dman then the Pens can probably get a 2nd for Ruhwedel lol. Every trade season the market is different for various reasons... the cap, how many players available, the caliber of players available, the team's situation, etc...
    Jan. 26 at 12:12 p.m.
    #18
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    Quoting: JacketsComrade
    if jarmo got a first and fourth out of expiring 33 y/o foligno, he's not taking this for 30 y/o boone w/term.


    i said realistic value, not inflated TDL value. they'll get more for him. that foligno was a mega overpay, so i hope the same happens again
    Jan. 26 at 12:15 p.m.
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    Quoting: AndrewPawlack
    i said realistic value, not inflated TDL value. they'll get more for him. that foligno was a mega overpay, so i hope the same happens again


    If he gets moved there will definitely be an overpay, but it won't be huge. You guys can't compare this to Foligno. Different time and market entirely.
    Jan. 26 at 12:19 p.m.
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    I've read your 'disclaimer' and basically bar a whopping overpay he simply won't be available. His value on paper is less than his internal value to the Jackets. That discussion has been had many, many times on here. Add in divisional rivalry and in PIT's case it will increase even more, and that IS still an aspect to consider like it or not. Divisional trades happen but would you expect PIT to trade your skipper within the division without expecting some cream on top?
    Jan. 26 at 12:23 p.m.
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    Quoting: TJTwolf
    I've read your 'disclaimer' and basically bar a whopping overpay he simply won't be available. His value on paper is less than his internal value to the Jackets. That discussion has been had many, many times on here. Add in divisional rivalry and in PIT's case it will increase even more, and that IS still an aspect to consider like it or not. Divisional trades happen but would you expect PIT to trade your skipper within the division without expecting some cream on top?


    No, I said in a few replies here that I expect an overpay, so I'm aware it would happen regardless if he gets moved, but not the level as some are suggesting. I just the think the days of the idea of inter-divisional trades either being forbidden or have to contain these crazy overpays are gone. If there are trades that make sense for teams, they'll make them.

    Zadorov was traded from CGY to VAN for very little. This is a rivalry and inter-division trade.

    The Pens traded Marino to NJ for very little lol. Again, rivalry and inter-division. This has all become way more common.

    Again, I'm aware in general it's unlikely he gets moved and the reports also stated that it's not impossible to happen, just not likely.
    Jan. 26 at 12:29 p.m.
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    Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
    No, I said in a few replies here that I expect an overpay, so I'm aware it would happen regardless if he gets moved, but not the level as some are suggesting. I just the think the days of the idea of inter-divisional trades either being forbidden or have to contain these crazy overpays are gone. If there are trades that make sense for teams, they'll make them.

    Again, I'm aware in general it's unlikely he gets moved and the reports also stated that it's not impossible to happen, just not likely.


    For sure, inter-divisional trades are more common now, even between former rivals. If I had to guess, I'd say a lot of that comes from the 'new breed' of GMs, numerous guys who played more recently who realise rivalry on the ice doesn't translate into the business decisions as much. All I'm saying is you still have to expect SOME form of premium, especially when you're talking about a guy who is considered internally very valuable to the Blue Jackets beyond his pure trade value. So if you're looking at an overpay outside the division you're probably looking at an overpay and then some more if you're inside the division. That would make it a very bad move for the Pens imo. I'd only consider that as a team where you're feeling pretty certain a guy is THE single missing piece to put you over the top. To my mind the Pens aren't close to that at present and more likely to be heading into rebuild territory soon.
    Jan. 26 at 12:31 p.m.
    #23
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    Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
    If he gets moved there will definitely be an overpay, but it won't be huge. You guys can't compare this to Foligno. Different time and market entirely.


    that's the thing though. Jenner is cheaper in cap stricken time, younger, not a rental, and slightly better producing than foligno at that time. And he's a center if he has to, good at faceoffs. But plays better at wing
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    Jan. 26 at 12:33 p.m.
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    Quoting: TJTwolf
    For sure, inter-divisional trades are more common now, even between former rivals. If I had to guess, I'd say a lot of that comes from the 'new breed' of GMs, numerous guys who played more recently who realise rivalry on the ice doesn't translate into the business decisions as much. All I'm saying is you still have to expect SOME form of premium, especially when you're talking about a guy who is considered internally very valuable to the Blue Jackets beyond his pure trade value. So if you're looking at an overpay outside the division you're probably looking at an overpay and then some more if you're inside the division. That would make it a very bad move for the Pens imo. I'd only consider that as a team where you're feeling pretty certain a guy is THE single missing piece to put you over the top. To my mind the Pens aren't close to that at present and more likely to be heading into rebuild territory soon.


    Totally expect a slight overpay, but someone suggested a 1st, 2nd, top protects, etc... that's just not happening lol.

    I'm not sure how much of this makes sense for the Pens, but I do think he would be a good fit here. What would that overpay look like? I think a 1st is fair to be in the deal, but it also really comes down to what CBJ values to their organization right now. The Pens aren't flush with top prospects and the couple they have are unlikely to be moved, even in a huge deal, but there's definitely some intriguing prospects that would be made available.

    Again, I totally get your rationale, so I'm not arguing against having to pay a premium to get him out, but there's still a reasonable premium.
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    Jan. 26 at 12:35 p.m.
    #25
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    Quoting: AndrewPawlack
    that's the thing though. Jenner is cheaper in cap stricken time, younger, not a rental, and slightly better producing than foligno at that time. And he's a center if he has to, good at faceoffs. But plays better at wing


    There's a lot of value in him for sure and his cap-hit is one of them. He's not young, but he's not old, however he's closer to aging out. I think some mix of a 1st, prospect and a roster player (for cap purposes) would be fair in a deal. I just think comparing rental trades to hockey trades, especially ones that are a few years out isn't the best litmus.
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