Romanov had a year left on his deal.
Dach was an RFA.

Edge: Romanov

Both Guhle and Holtz have 2 years left on their ELCs

Edge: Nobody

If anything it favours Holtz in the comp.

The swedish pro league is VERY tough to score in especially as an 17-18 year old. Just look at Eklund (also 7th overall)

He scored 12 goals in 90 games there.
In the swedish Jr league Eklund scored 12 goals in 31 games
Holtz scored 37 goals in 41 games

Holtz in his age 19/20 season was top 10 in the AHL in goals/game.

I imagine the Islanders viewed Romanov exactly how the devils would view Guhle.

Seems like the only difference lies in bias and perception, rather than the actual quality and results.

We're on capfriendly, its not hard to see that Romanov was an RFA:

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/alexander-romanov

Dach is also a center.

And that's great, but you're arguing that he can sustain what he's doing now, which would be one of the best rates in the NHL (and one of the better ones in NHL history). Being better than Eklund isn't the standard you're arguing.

Again, this isn't a knock on Holtz or his upside, but you're not even close to convincing most Habs fan that this makes sense for Montreal NOW.

Would think Stillman has higher upside. I could be wrong. Either way I’d hope for something like this for Kaliyev

Ahhh my mistake. Regardless it’s still the same. RFA for RFA vs 2 years of ELC for 2 years of ELC.

Montreal has a surplus of Dmen. They have a desperate need for legit top 6 forwards. Right now I see

Caufield _____ Slaf as a quality top line
Dach Suzuki Holtz as a quality second line
Roy Newhook _____ as line 3



Would realistically still need a 1C even with adding holtz.

On D they have:

Struble, Matheson, Mailloux, Hutson, Harris, Barron, Reinbacher, Xhekaj. Find 5 from there and add a veteran in free agency to complement it (because you can’t run 6 young guys).

That’s 8 other guys. If Barron Xhekaj Hutson Reinbacher Matheson and Mailloux are what habs fans have been claiming, they should be more than able to carry the load of 5 dmen between them.

Otherwise you can try and sell the lower tier of Harris/Xhekaj/Struble but that’s not gonna be what gets you a legit top 6 forward.

Dach is a "center" but has had very poor results as a center. He had bad results as a center in MTL, but good results as a winger on Suzuki&Caufield's line, and habs fans got it all mixed together and convinced themselves he had good results as a center

Are you saying these numbers are bad?

Make a list of guys who scored more goals as teenager in SHL in last ten years. There are none

Make a list of guys who have scored more as U20 player in AHL. It is brief. Nylander, Fiala, Peterka…(and Rantanen on per game basis).

Make a list of guys currently on Canadiens that score at higher rate than Holtz 5v5 in NHL. There are none

Better SHL production than Leo Carlsson. I went with Eklund for the fairest comp since they were teammates but hmmmm

You forget why Romanov was playing 20+mins that year. Montreal Defense was injured they had something like 12 D play for them that season. So of course he played more.

Both Chariot and Edmunsdon were the top LD. If both were healthy Romanov would have only played 13-17mins. Also current points are roughly the same(looking at Romonv last year in Montreal to Guhles current(with less than half the season to go).

But you go right ahead and think both are top pairing defense. I'll wait for the comments on both sides.

And Guhle is playing 2nd pairing because every single Montreal lefty option outside of Matheson is 22 as well.

23 year old Harris, 23 year old Xhekaj, 22 year old Struble. No matter who they chose to put as 2LD it was gonna be a 22 year old.

If Montreal had better options now Guhle wouldn’t be playing the role he is. That’s common sense. If there were better players available worse players would play yes yeah.

Feels like revisionist history with Romanov ending up behind 2 quality dmen.

If Guhle gets traded and plays behind Luke and Siegs you’ll be saying the same thing about him in 2 years

Dach is a center. Newhook is not. And no team in the NHL is going to project a lineup made up entirely of players under 25 and most of whom are under 23.

And you can repeat this as much as you want, it doesn't change the fact that Montreal isn't at a spot right NOW where they consider a trade like that.



I don't know how many times I need to offer some variation of saying that its not intended as knock on Holtz.

You can site all of that, the standard he was being held to is much higher than that. We're talking a higher 5v5 goal scoring rate, shooting percentage and IPP than Matthews has maintained over seasons. If anyone thought it was sustainable, the Devils wouldn't be trading him for anybody.

And again, I know Montreal sucks 5v5. But that doesn't mean that Holtz is some sort of salve for that. He's not the one driving 5v5 play in New Jersey.

This isn't a commentary on value. This is not an attack on Holtz or even a criticism. This is not a commentary on trade value. It is only intended to point out why Holtz isn't a cure to 5v5 play, which was an argument to why Montreal would do that trade.

Again, Montreal isn't in a position to make that kind of trade right now.

Alright Dach is a center Newhook is a winger

Now it’s
Caufield Suzuki Slaf
_______ _______ ______
Newhook Dach Roy

Because Dach even pre knee explosion hadn’t been effective in a top 6 center role.

The habs have a surplus of Dman.

They have a need for forwards.

In value Holtz and Guhle are very similar. They’re the same age. They have the same contract situation. Both have significant strengths with significant weaknesses.

The comp is out there with Montreal swapping a potential top 4 dman for a potential top 6 forward in the Romanov Dach swap.

If they don’t want to do it, good for them.

But don’t act like it doesn’t line up, that there isn’t the need, that it’s not from a surplus, and that the value doesn’t check out.

If anything it doesn’t make sense for Jersey to go after a Dman who probably slots in at number 6 in their core for the forseeable future, or at best number 4 behind Dougie Luke and Nemec.

There is no reason Montreal would value Holtz over Dach or pencil him higher in the line-up.

And I will say it doesn't line up. Montreal is still in the middle of a rebuild. They don't know who they'll be picking in at least the next two drafts or have an actual idea of where guys may foot until more turn pro. They make take a D-man, in which case the math changes. They may take a scoring winger, in which case they'd have much less interest in Holtz. Half their top D prospects haven't turned pro. They haven't had a not utterly injury plagued season since they made the finals, and a most of the injuries have happened to different players.

Its not a trade they would make NOW. In the present. Currently. Insert another synonym.

And it is irrelevant to Montreal what NJ would or would not do in this scenario, that's NJ's responsibility.

You claim Dach is a center then are shocked when I place him at 3C. None of his play at C so far has suggested he's anything more than that. If Dach is a winger you can place both him and Holtz in the top 6 at wingers. If you're trying to win with Dach and Suzuki as your top 2 centermen idk what to tell you.

In 2 years holtz isn't available. Also a number of your dman lose waivers eligibility at which point you either have to keep them in the lineup (which means no space for Hutson, Mailloux, Reinbacher), or sell them for pennies on the dollar

Holtz is 21 years old why are you acting like hes some veteran winger.

Montreal was in a rebuild when they traded Romanov for Dach.

Except Dach >>> Holtz and Guhle >>> Romanov

Keep trying…

Have you actually been reading my posts? Because nothing you said makes sense.

I'm not shocked you place him on the 3rd line, I'm shocked you'd imply Holtz has shown anything to suggest he would be on the second line relative to Dach. And nobody builds a team that way outside of EA Sports and Fantasy.

I don't understand how you would know who would or wouldn't be available in two years or why I would care. I also REALLY don't understand why you think Montreal wouldn't trade Guhle or other D-men in different trades. Just because Holtz doesn't make sense as a trade target for Guhle RIGHT NOW, doesn't mean there isn't another trade out there for Guhle or other guys.

And you're going to have to explain how anything I've said is a commentary on Holtz's age and not the timing of the proposed trade. Because that is quite the leap.

Montreal's also only been properly rebuilding since 2021-2022. You're a fan of a team that has made the playoffs twice in the last 11 seasons. If you think they're done picking in the top 10 or building through the draft then I don't know what to tell you.

And I'm sure that same argument full of bias was made when the Sergachev Drouin trade was used as a comp for the Romanov Holtz trade.

I think Guhle>>Romanov and Holtz>>Dach.

"He's been playing 1st pairing minutes for basically the whole year and has some serious top 4 potential" -Habs fan describing Alex Romanaov 2 years ago. sounds familiar to me.

There is no real justification to say these aren't valid comps except for the fact that Dach and Guhle are currently under contract with the habs. so of course their value is sky high

Except Romanov was a fan favourite and a top 4 D, but was way worse defensively…

Dach >>> Holtz and it’s not even close. Only thing going for Holtz is his 5v5 production. He is WAY worse in every other aspect…

Holtz has shown he can put points on the board not on the power play. Something montreal desperately needs. He slots in on line 2 in montreal today because the competition for the 2RW role is currently Joel Armia.

And going forward he slots in there because the competition is Josh anderson. Again, unless you want to put Dach at RW and even then I'd argue you're better off with Holtz with even more development than Dach coming back from his knee exploding.

You've made no justification for why it doesn't make sense:

Montreal objectively needs to add multiple top 6 quality guys/elite upside guys if they want to compete. Holtz is that.

They objectively have a surplus of Dmen.

So a swap of D for F should make sense.

Holtz is identical age to Guhle so it makes no sense why a rebuilder wouldn't want him.

You can argue value if you want, for which I have provided a comp of montreal making an identical move.



This move would simply be montreal trading from a positional surplus into a positional deficit. Simple as that. If montreal believes Guhle is their future 1LD, good for them.

If Montreal thinks the Defensive group of Hutson Reinbacher Harris Xhekaj Mailloux Struble etc aren't actually all that, good for them. They can stop pretending all those pieces are worth gold mines.

If Montreal doesn't view holtz that highly, good for them. They can stop sending pitiful ACGM offers for him then.

Not really.

Pre trade dach was also very bad defensively, he was very bad at driving play offensively, he had missed major time with a wrist injury. He was unable to produce alongside alex debrincat and Patrick kane.

It is revisionist history at it's finest. Dach was a legitimately bad player in almost every aspect pre trade. His draft pedigree, potential, and size were among the few things he had going for him.

Cole Sillinger or Marco Rossi. Who's more valuable as a trade asset

In junior and at the wjc, Dach was good defensively. So, the defensive side of his play was definitely there, while Holtz has never been good defensively. He was also having good flashes of what he could be. Everyone that watch him play said that he was gonna be good. Even Toews said the hawks were gonna regret it. His potential was WAY higher than Holtz. He played a better position and he was better on the pp. He was drafted 3rd overall.

Holtz was definitely a better player, but Dach had WAY more potential and value

Probably Rossi cuz he has a higher potential and is playing better right now. But that has nothing to do with Dach and Holtz

And I’d argue holtz upside is the same as that of Cole Caufield. (He’s having a very similar season to last years Cole), and a similar archetype of a defensively limited sniper. Caufield has more offensive upside while holtz very likely ends up being better defensively. (Caufields power play metrics are horrific btw)

And I took the bias out of it and the truth comes out.

Rossi as a comp for Holtz (holtz has produced= or better every step of the way up and has more upside imo)

Sillinger as a comp for Dach at the time of trade. Very similar production/play, which is bad, but straight into the NHL right out of the draft and strong upside