Monahan vs Lindholm

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$83,500,000	$79,050,416	$1,170,000	$3,977,500	$4,449,584

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Caufield, Cole $7,850,000$7,850,000 LW, RW UFA - 8	Suzuki, Nick $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 7	Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4
Pearson, Tanner $3,250,000$3,250,000 LW UFA - 1		Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 4
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, RW RFA - 2	Evans, Jake $1,700,000$1,700,000 C UFA - 2	Armia, Joel $3,400,000$3,400,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Pezzetta, Michael $812,500$812,500 LW, RW UFA - 2	Lindholm, Elias $4,850,000$4,850,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 2
		Ylönen, Jesse $775,000$775,000 RW, LW RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Matheson, Michael $4,875,000$4,875,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 3	Savard, David $3,500,000$3,500,000 RD UFA - 2	Allen, Jake $1,925,000$1,925,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Harris, Jordan $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD/RD RFA - 2	Kovacevic, Johnathan $766,667$766,667 RD UFA - 2	Montembeault, Samuel $1,000,000$1,000,000 G UFA - 1
Struble, Jayden $867,500$867,500 ($57,500$58K) LD RFA - 2		Primeau, Cayden $890,000$890,000 G RFA - 2
Guhle, Kaiden $863,333$863,333 ($420,000$420K) LD/RD RFA - 2
Xhekaj, Arber $828,333$828,333 LD/RD RFA - 1

Jan. 30 at 9:47 a.m.

#1

jonh514

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Quoting: The_random_sens_fan

Yes I did , but Monahan stay with is injury problem and I think Calgary have chance to give a new contract to Lindholm.

That's totally fine. So in your opinion, they are equivalent players when healthy, but injury problems for Monahan are why you prefer Lindholm?

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Jan. 30 at 9:48 a.m.

#2

The_random_sens_fan

Joined: May 2023

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Quoting: habitantlecolon

so you didn't read the description and make your opinion a fact. THX!

This years is probably better and?
In the 3 last season Lindholm is way better

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Jan. 30 at 9:48 a.m.

#3

The_random_sens_fan

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Quoting: jonh514

That's totally fine. So in your opinion, they are equivalent players when healthy, but injury problems for Monahan are why you prefer Lindholm?

Yes

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Jan. 30 at 9:50 a.m.

#4

jonh514

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Quoting: The_random_sens_fan

This years is probably better and?
In the 3 last season Lindholm is way better

Hey! I'll take that argument. Granted, over the past 3 seasons. Lindholm is way better. I will counter by saying that is largely tied to injuries, but it's still a fact you are RIGHT about!

Does that mean the guy is more valuable THIS year though? How do we know he's not in early decline?

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Jan. 30 at 9:51 a.m.

#5

Lancebmx

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Lindholm finished 10th in Selke votes last year, 2nd the year prior. Monahan has received Selke votes since 2014/15. One large difference maker there. Lindholm is an elite defensive forward, Monahan is not. A ton of value right there.

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Jan. 30 at 9:52 a.m.

#6

Windjammer

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For me, I think GM's will heavily consider history.

Yes, Lindholm is having a down year and that probably hurts his value some, but over that last 4 or 5 years, Lindholm has been a far superior player. He also is the superior two way player.

Then when GM's look at Monahan. They see a player that was a cap dump a season ago that cost a first to get rid of. When he became a UFA, any team could have signed him and none wanted him. Sure he's having a good offensive year, but 40 good games doesn't completely erase 5 years of bad play.

Monahan is a bad skater, slow and poor defensively, all are true now and historically. A PP specialist that is good at face offs, isn't all that useful to playoff teams.

So, when you roll all that together, Lindholm is just a far safer, percentage bet.

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Jan. 30 at 10:00 a.m.

#7

Leafsfan98

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Historically speaking (roughly the time Monahan started with injuries), Lindholm's been better and took Monahan's job from him...

So, logically, I'd rather the more proven player going through a tough stretch

Then, factor in that defensively, Lindholm's been better and the majority of Monahan's points are via the PP with better players

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Jan. 30 at 10:00 a.m.

#8

SK101

Joined: Feb. 2022

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Who does Monahan play with on the powerplay where half of his points are from?

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Jan. 30 at 10:07 a.m.

#9

Hockeyfan1986

Joined: Jan. 2024

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Quoting: SK101

Who does Monahan play with on the powerplay where half of his points are from?

Suzuki, Caufield, Slav, and Matheson. Monahan plays side bumper.

Jan. 30 at 10:25 a.m.

#10

jonh514

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Quoting: Lancebmx

Lindholm finished 10th in Selke votes last year, 2nd the year prior. Monahan has received Selke votes since 2014/15. One large difference maker there. Lindholm is an elite defensive forward, Monahan is not. A ton of value right there.

I appreciate your argument sir! Can you backup the argument that Lindholm is better defensively than Monahan this year? Is it just the eye test (which I am a huge fan of), or are you backing that up with certain statistics? Is he better in takeaways or something?

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Jan. 30 at 10:29 a.m.

#11

jonh514

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Quoting: Windjammer

For me, I think GM's will heavily consider history.

Yes, Lindholm is having a down year and that probably hurts his value some, but over that last 4 or 5 years, Lindholm has been a far superior player. He also is the superior two way player.

Then when GM's look at Monahan. They see a player that was a cap dump a season ago that cost a first to get rid of. When he became a UFA, any team could have signed him and none wanted him. Sure he's having a good offensive year, but 40 good games doesn't completely erase 5 years of bad play.

Monahan is a bad skater, slow and poor defensively, all are true now and historically. A PP specialist that is good at face offs, isn't all that useful to playoff teams.

So, when you roll all that together, Lindholm is just a far safer, percentage bet.

Windjammer I wish you would make longer comments more often my man. They are normally super well reasoned and fun to engage with!

I agree that Lindholm is a better skater than Monahan. I don't know by how much, but Monahan is more effective when he can slow the game down. Definitely not good on rush offense for example.

If you remember my previous posts about analytics, this may sound a bit weird coming from me, but are there any advanced stats that "prove" Lindholm in 2023-24 is better than Monahan defensively?

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Jan. 30 at 10:31 a.m.

#12

jonh514

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Quoting: SK101

Who does Monahan play with on the powerplay where half of his points are from?

That's one argument. But why are you ignoring the other argument about who Lindholm plays with 5-on-5 vs Monahan.

Give me Huberdeau, Sharangovich, and Mangiapane over Gallagher, Pearson, Evans, and Anderson every day of the week and twice on Sundays!

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Jan. 30 at 10:38 a.m.

#13

Windjammer

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Quoting: jonh514

Windjammer I wish you would make longer comments more often my man. They are normally super well reasoned and fun to engage with!

I agree that Lindholm is a better skater than Monahan. I don't know by how much, but Monahan is more effective when he can slow the game down. Definitely not good on rush offense for example.

If you remember my previous posts about analytics, this may sound a bit weird coming from me, but are there any advanced stats that "prove" Lindholm in 2023-24 is better than Monahan defensively?

Hey John, sometimes I'll do longer posts, but I get tired of writing the same thing over and over plus most people won't read anything more than a sentence or two long.

so I save the more detailed posts for guys like you that still actually read and understand and try to address the issues in the posts as opposed to throwing a hissy fit.

I'm not good at finding advanced stats, but I have seen some posted here and over at HFB that cover Monahan's defensive shortcomings. Sorry I can't point you to a particular place.

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Jan. 30 at 10:47 a.m.

#14

Lancebmx

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Quoting: jonh514

I appreciate your argument sir! Can you backup the argument that Lindholm is better defensively than Monahan this year? Is it just the eye test (which I am a huge fan of), or are you backing that up with certain statistics? Is he better in takeaways or something?

Haven't watched either much this year. Haven't looked at statistics this year either. Just going off of the last few years.

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Jan. 30 at 11:02 a.m.

#15

jonh514

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Quoting: Windjammer

Hey John, sometimes I'll do longer posts, but I get tired of writing the same thing over and over plus most people won't read anything more than a sentence or two long.

so I save the more detailed posts for guys like you that still actually read and understand and try to address the issues in the posts as opposed to throwing a hissy fit.

I'm not good at finding advanced stats, but I have seen some posted here and over at HFB that cover Monahan's defensive shortcomings. Sorry I can't point you to a particular place.

Quoting: Lancebmx

Haven't watched either much this year. Haven't looked at statistics this year either. Just going off of the last few years.

Team,

Monahan was injured 3 years ago and 2 years ago because of his hips. You've gotta throw those out. You can say he's injury prone if you'd like, but the guy was injured even when he was playing.

Monahan was good last year until he broke his foot blocking a shot.

Monahan has been excellent this year at both ends of the ice and healthy.

Give the guy a chance before saying he's bad defensively. I typically really respect both of your comments, but I am disappointed that both of you are repeating "here say" rather than being able to show evidence backing up your arguments...

Jan. 30 at 11:14 a.m.

#16

jonh514

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Quoting: Windjammer

Hey John, sometimes I'll do longer posts, but I get tired of writing the same thing over and over plus most people won't read anything more than a sentence or two long.

so I save the more detailed posts for guys like you that still actually read and understand and try to address the issues in the posts as opposed to throwing a hissy fit.

I'm not good at finding advanced stats, but I have seen some posted here and over at HFB that cover Monahan's defensive shortcomings. Sorry I can't point you to a particular place.

Hey... Everyone here who can't man up and admit you were right about PLD and they were wrong can suck it IMO. Sour grapes!

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Jan. 30 at 11:24 a.m.

#17

Windjammer

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Quoting: jonh514

Team,

Monahan was injured 3 years ago and 2 years ago because of his hips. You've gotta throw those out. You can say he's injury prone if you'd like, but the guy was injured even when he was playing.

Monahan was good last year until he broke his foot blocking a shot.

Monahan has been excellent this year at both ends of the ice and healthy.

Give the guy a chance before saying he's bad defensively. I typically really respect both of your comments, but I am disappointed that both of you are repeating "here say" rather than being able to show evidence backing up your arguments...

For me I'm not repeating hearsay. I've seen the charts that show Monahan is bad at everything other than PP and face offs. You may not like it, but you can find that information.

No, we don't have to throw out 2 and 3 years ago because they don't support what you want them to say. They are part of Monahan and have to be considered.

Try this, take all the stats and everything else away including the names of the players.

Who would you rather have:

Player A, has been a really good 2 way player the last 5 years, good skater but has been underperforming offensively for the last 40 games in relation to his norm.

Or,

Player B, has been a really bad 2 way player the last 5 years, poor skater but has been overperforming offensively only for the last 40 games in relation to his norm.

Honesty, who would you pick? I think for most the choice is obvious.

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Jan. 30 at 11:28 a.m.

#18

jonh514

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Quoting: Windjammer

For me I'm not repeating hearsay. I've seen the charts that show Monahan is bad at everything other than PP and face offs. You may not like it, but you can find that information.

No, we don't have to throw out 2 and 3 years ago because they don't support what you want them to say. They are part of Monahan and have to be considered.

Try this, take all the stats and everything else away including the names of the players.

Who would you rather have:

Player A, has been a really good 2 way player the last 5 years, good skater but has been underperforming offensively for the last 40 games in relation to his norm.

Or,

Player B, has been a really bad 2 way player the last 5 years, poor skater but has been overperforming offensively only for the last 40 games in relation to his norm.

Honesty, who would you pick? I think for most the choice is obvious.

The argument to look at the entire body of work over half a season is a good one: granted!

The point I am making is: people are offering 2 x 1sts plus B prospects for Lindholm and a 2nd for Monahan. That's crazy given the last 100 games played by both players.

Jan. 30 at 11:34 a.m.

#19

jonh514

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Quoting: Windjammer

For me I'm not repeating hearsay. I've seen the charts that show Monahan is bad at everything other than PP and face offs. You may not like it, but you can find that information.

No, we don't have to throw out 2 and 3 years ago because they don't support what you want them to say. They are part of Monahan and have to be considered.

Try this, take all the stats and everything else away including the names of the players.

Who would you rather have:

Player A, has been a really good 2 way player the last 5 years, good skater but has been underperforming offensively for the last 40 games in relation to his norm.

Or,

Player B, has been a really bad 2 way player the last 5 years, poor skater but has been overperforming offensively only for the last 40 games in relation to his norm.

Honesty, who would you pick? I think for most the choice is obvious.

IMO they are BOTH 60 pts guys who maybe get there in different ways. Lindholm had 1 PPG season, they year his team had Tkachuk & Gaudreau hitting 100 point seasons. He was the beneficiary of a lot of that. The linemates matter when doing this analysis...

Jan. 30 at 11:45 a.m.

#20

Windjammer

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Quoting: jonh514

The argument to look at the entire body of work over half a season is a good one: granted!

The point I am making is: people are offering 2 x 1sts plus B prospects for Lindholm and a 2nd for Monahan. That's crazy given the last 100 games played by both players.

You should probably average them out. Throw out the high and low offers and average the rest.

Although you do have to remember, fit matters more than anything. That's my main argument against Monahan for the Jets. He just doesn't fit anywhere.

You can't expect everyone to agree with a values in a vacuum approach.

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Jan. 30 at 11:48 a.m.

#21

Windjammer

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Quoting: jonh514

IMO they are BOTH 60 pts guys who maybe get there in different ways. Lindholm had 1 PPG season, they year his team had Tkachuk & Gaudreau hitting 100 point seasons. He was the beneficiary of a lot of that. The linemates matter when doing this analysis...

Yes, linemates can matter, but there are advanced stats that can level that out.

You also can't guarantee that better linemates = more points. If Monahan is paired with better wingers, but they are faster than Monahan and he can't keep up, that advantage is lost.

If I have to choose between spending a 1st on Monahan or Lindholm, I'd choose Lindholm every time. It's just a far safer bet if you play percentages.

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Jan. 30 at 11:56 a.m.

#22

jonh514

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Quoting: Windjammer

Yes, linemates can matter, but there are advanced stats that can level that out.

You also can't guarantee that better linemates = more points. If Monahan is paired with better wingers, but they are faster than Monahan and he can't keep up, that advantage is lost.

If I have to choose between spending a 1st on Monahan or Lindholm, I'd choose Lindholm every time. It's just a far safer bet if you play percentages.

I have no argument with that. I just dislike the Lindholm has 3-4 times the value of Monahan.

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Jan. 30 at 5:29 p.m.

#23

Leafsfan98

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Quoting: jonh514

The argument to look at the entire body of work over half a season is a good one: granted!

The point I am making is: people are offering 2 x 1sts plus B prospects for Lindholm and a 2nd for Monahan. That's crazy given the last 100 games played by both players.

TBF, the only guys throwing out 2 1sts for Lindholm are Flames fans...

But as @Windjammer said; it's also about the fit...

In TO, for example as I am a Leafs fan, I'd rather have Lindholm, who can be thrown out with two lesser defensive players and prevent one of the other team's top 2 lines from scoring... Can't really do that with Monahan...

What does Monahan do that a guy like Domi can't do? Or Jarnkrok....

Most teams have a guy like Monahan whereas most teams don't have a Lindholm and there are only so many 1sts to throw around (32 each year to be exact!)... Last thing; Lindholm is underperforming, he can absolutely hit a hot streak come playoffs and now, your team's on fire in the playoffs vs an overachiever who can cool down come playoffs

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Jan. 30 at 5:47 p.m.

#24

jonh514

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Edited Jan. 30 at 6:15 p.m.

Quoting: Leafsfan98

TBF, the only guys throwing out 2 1sts for Lindholm are Flames fans...

But as Windjammer said; it's also about the fit...

In TO, for example as I am a Leafs fan, I'd rather have Lindholm, who can be thrown out with two lesser defensive players and prevent one of the other team's top 2 lines from scoring... Can't really do that with Monahan...

What does Monahan do that a guy like Domi can't do? Or Jarnkrok....

Most teams have a guy like Monahan whereas most teams don't have a Lindholm and there are only so many 1sts to throw around (32 each year to be exact!)... Last thing; Lindholm is underperforming, he can absolutely hit a hot streak come playoffs and now, your team's on fire in the playoffs vs an overachiever who can cool down come playoffs

EDIT:

I take your meaning on getting a better overall defensive player, and I don't buy the fact that Lindholm is a better defensive player (prove it to me)!

As relates to comparing Monahan to Domi:

Domi has 0.58 goals per 60 and 4 goals on an expected goals of 5.84
Monahan has 0.92 goals per 60 and 13 goals on an expected goals of 13.89

Their faceoff percentages are 52.1 for Domi and 55 for Monahan (both fairly good, though Monahan is clearly better)
Monahan has the edge in goals 13 to 4
Monahan has the edge in points 35 to 24
Domi has played 54% of his shifts with Robertson & Jarnkrok (not sure who else he plays with)
Monahan has spent 48% of his shifts with Evans & Anderson and 46% of his shifts with Pearson & Gallagher

I would say one of the biggest differences between them is that Monahan takes a lot of shots from high & medium danger scoring lanes and Domi is more of a perimeter player. So I guess get Monahan to get a MOAR BIGGER 3rd liner who can win faceoffs and who will go to the dirty areas?

Jan. 30 at 6:11 p.m.

#25

jonh514

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Quoting: Lancebmx

Lindholm finished 10th in Selke votes last year, 2nd the year prior. Monahan has received Selke votes since 2014/15. One large difference maker there. Lindholm is an elite defensive forward, Monahan is not. A ton of value right there.

Quoting: Windjammer

For me, I think GM's will heavily consider history.

Yes, Lindholm is having a down year and that probably hurts his value some, but over that last 4 or 5 years, Lindholm has been a far superior player. He also is the superior two way player.

Then when GM's look at Monahan. They see a player that was a cap dump a season ago that cost a first to get rid of. When he became a UFA, any team could have signed him and none wanted him. Sure he's having a good offensive year, but 40 good games doesn't completely erase 5 years of bad play.

Monahan is a bad skater, slow and poor defensively, all are true now and historically. A PP specialist that is good at face offs, isn't all that useful to playoff teams.

So, when you roll all that together, Lindholm is just a far safer, percentage bet.

Quoting: Leafsfan98

Historically speaking (roughly the time Monahan started with injuries), Lindholm's been better and took Monahan's job from him...

So, logically, I'd rather the more proven player going through a tough stretch

Then, factor in that defensively, Lindholm's been better and the majority of Monahan's points are via the PP with better players

Actually guys - I've been looking into the theory that Lindholm is better defensively than Monahan, and in 2023-24 it's simply not the case.

Shots blocked by player Lindholm has the edge at 40 to Monahan's 24
Takeaways Lindholm has the edge with 28 to Monahan's 24
Giveaways Monahan has the edge with 24 to Lindholm's 25
They have identical Corsi numbers (50%)
They have identical Fenwick numbers (51%)
Monahan has a positive on ice goals percentage of 54%, while Lindholm has a negative on ice goals percentage at 47%

I dunno... especially when you look at the linemates, I don't agree that Lindholm is better defensively than Monahan this year. Monahan is better offensively & defensively in 2023-24.

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
	Dvorak, Christian $4,450,000$4,450,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 3
	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 3
	Newhook, Alex $2,900,000$2,900,000 C, LW RFA - 4
	Wideman, Chris $762,500$762,500 RD UFA - 1

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