I agree with this…I think there is a top-tier of about 6 and there are a solid 12-15 after. But gets a little dicey in back half of 1st round. Imagine we will see some unexpected names appear at the end of that round.

I would question that it depends on whether a drafting team has a top RHD or not.

4. I think obviously you stick with the top-3, but then Celebrini goes ahead of Smith.

I wouldn't even call it "tools", honestly, I'd say it's purely his size. Most of why he is sticking in the KHL is his size too. His tools aren't that great, imo. He hasn't been able to produce any offense sine very early in the season, and he is VERY sheltered in how he is being utilized. I watch a game of his every now and then this season just to take extra looks to see if anything has changed, and I don't see it. Then you factor in that he is Russian and probably won't be coming over for 3 to 5 years, making it a very peculiar prediction that he goes that high. I can see why someone might go for him, but I wouldn't, not this high. I think there is A LOT of smoke in mirrors around the draft, pundits and scouts trying to force different narratives to manipulate opinions and make people second guess.

I would not at all be surprised if Levshunov went 1st overall. One of the leaders in his position in goals, points, shots, hits, blocks, +/-, o-zone entries, GF%….a very high impact player who is capable of taking over close games. We have not see that yet from Celebrini, who can produce a ton of offense, and he and Hutsons can be magical on power play. But he is not taking over games.

if it wasn't for Lindstrom and the fact that we have a huge D pool Levshunov would be my pick.

I haven’t seen Lindstrom much, just a few clips, and have read a bunch about him. I am usually very suspicious about big centers dominating juniors…I feel like that story rarely ends well. Would be nice to see him in best-v-best tournament or against people a little older.

He just fit so well in our window and lineup that I might be biased.

No. What the rule says is: "No single team will be able to ADVANCE in the Draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two (2) times in any five (5) year period. This limitation will not affect a Club’s ability to retain its presumptive Draft position in ANY Draft Lottery"

My interpretation emphasizes the use of the words "advance" and "move-up". Also, the fact that nowhere in the rules does it state that "a team who has won the lottery twice will be EXCLUDED from the lottery", it simply says they "cannot advance or move-up by way of winning the draft lottery." So, a team can essentially win the drawing but will not advance in the draft order from their current position if they have already won twice in the last 5 years. Which means a team that has won it twice in the last 5 years still has a chance at keeping their current draft position if they win, in this scenario last place could technically still stay right where they are. And the math supports that as well, seeing as excluding a team, or teams, from the drawing drastically changes the odds.

I doubt you'd be singing the same tune if you had watched as much of Levshunov as I have. But I guess it's possible, if the 1st overall team needs a "top RD" bad enough.

It's all right here in this link. https://media.nhl.com/public/news/14767
They are VERY specific in how they word it. It does not say "They cannot win" it says "they cannot advance".

I don’t know how much MSU you watch.

I follow NCAA pretty closely…and have seen a ton of Levshunov play. Probably around half his games. He is raw at times, but can take over a game on both sides of ice. And is one of few guys that can just go, “f*** it, I’ll do it myself” and still get it done.

As have I, and I do not see that. I see a guy who sneaks off the ice as soon as he recognizes play is transitioning out of the offensive zone almost every time, and the times when he does get caught in his own end, he looks lost and makes ineffective and, a lot of times, weak plays defensively. In the offensive zone he is fine at walking the blue line and stepping up into space, occasionally, to take a shot or draw defenders to him and set up a pass, but most of his points have come from touches in cycle. I have almost never been "wowed" by his ability or effort. I like him, but this discussion about 1st overall seems way overboard to me and I don't even see him as a top 5 pick unless a team REALLY needs an RD.

I guess it wouldn't surprise me if some team did it, but I certainly wouldn't.

what is your top 10 mock draft for 2024?

Oh geez. I don't even have a ranking really set in stone yet, let alone a mock draft, anticipating what I think specific teams will do.

I can tell you, from the hawks perspective, I have mostly forwards in my top 5. Celebrini at 1st and then some mixture of Lindstrom, Demidov, and Catton behind him, and THEN maybe a defenseman. But there is a lot of time left for this to change.

Same with my take on Levshunov, honestly. As the season starts getting closer to the end and transitions to playoffs, their play when games really count could heavily sway my opinion.

I have seen a lot of people point to that poorly worded phrase. It is misleading. And it’s the only place that suggests such a nuance.

Here is another from NHL: “Teams cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year period. Wins in the lottery prior to 2022 will not be counted toward this total….The NHL said the changes will … limit the number of times the same team can benefit from winning a lottery drawing.“

ESPN: “Limiting team lottery wins in a five-year period“

NBC Chicago: “Teams cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year span, dating back to 2022. So, if the 2022 lottery winner Montreal Canadiens again wins the No. 1 pick this year, they will be ineligible for the top pick for the next three draft lotteries.”

TSN: “Also beginning in 2022, a team can win the lottery no more than twice in a five-year span.“

Another: “Also, no team is allowed to win the lottery more than two times in a five-year period.“

Another: “teams cannot win the lottery more than twice in the period of five years”

I think it’s clear that the 2-in-5 rule is a limit on lottery wins.

There is a separate rule that limits moving up, but that says the winning team can only move up 10 spots.

Well, I am glad there is another NCAA fan on here. There are not many. Wish there was more college hockey talk on these forums.

Any undrafteds you like?

You mean the ACTUAL language of the rule is the only place that suggests such nuance? Wow. Weird... haha

Most of these quotes were interpretations released from incomplete details previous to the actual release of the lottery rules. The ACTUAL rule very specifically states: "This limitation will not affect a Club’s ability to retain its presumptive Draft position in any Draft Lottery" meaning they cannot advance but can still win to keep their current position as the standings would determine.

make us 3 but this season I didn't take time at all, and only focus on the Terrier for 12 games. I'm not sold at all with Celebrini and I hate Tuch soooo much.

I've been excited to see where Graf signs for a couple years now. But I haven't been too concerned with undrafted players because I wonder if most of them want to either go home or to their favorite team or a playoff team of some sort, rather than a "dumpster fire" like CHI. Seeing as most kids don't have the life experience to recognize the potential of going to a bottom of the standings team or what is actually best for them. At least, I know when I was a little idiot at that age who couldn't fathom what real adult life was like and had no idea what work ethic or being a professional really meant.

The only games I haven't been able to watch much of are the NCHC. Only when I catch them on onHockey or they play a big 10 or hockey east team or end up on ESPN+.

I would certainly be interested in getting DIRECT clarification about that in a real press conference with NHL brass, though.

This comes up every year. Go look up Bettman’s comments prior to 2022 lottery when this rule started (year after announcement). He used the example of Buffalo that won 2018, 2021 lotteries. And said if the rule had been in place, Buffalo would not have been eligible for 2022 lottery.

But in 2018…they had the worst record. So it was not only “advancements” it was wins.

And the same article, both above and below that quote, makes reference to lottery wins.

Seems like most of those quotes and articles are copy-pasta, though. The wording seems too specific and the math makes too much sense. So, I am choosing to interpret it differently until direct clarification is made. It literally says "cannot advance... but does not effect a teams ability to retain their presumptive draft position in the lottery", which would signify that numbers are still assigned to them but they cannot advance. I don't know why they would put that there instead of saying that a team would specifically be "ineligible or excluded from the lottery".

I think we are losing sight of the purpose of the rule changes. They were put in place to ensure that teams lower in the standings had a better chance at top picks, not the other way around.

Love Graf. And he is smart kid too. Had a crazy number of offers last year. His linemate, Quillan is solid too. Had them among my best NCAA lines. Would probably put them first if redid it today.

It’s actually a good year for forwards…TJ Hughes, Luke Granger, Riese Gaber. Not many will make it, but I think we see Graf in NHL this year.

The defense crop is thin this year. Bavaro and Huard maybe. Bengsson and Anhorn probably get a chance. Krys maybe.

my best NCAA free agents