Slaf breakout real or fake

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: dgibb10

Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Feb. 11, 2024

Published: Feb. 11, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Seperating into pre and post december

Pre december: 23 games, 2g-7 points
December on: 28g 8g-16 points

But let's look deeper.

Getting significant boost in linemates and deployment needs to be factored in.

Let's go to even strength numbers:

Pre
0.2g/60, 1.2 p/60
Post
0.72 goals/60, 1.3 points/60.

A VERY key factor is a shooting% of 3.8% before, and now a shooting% of 16%.

In fact he's generating less shots and shot attempts than he did before said breakout.

Improvement in on ice metrics but again primarily based on linemates rather than himself

Eye test says: slight improvements but nothing major

My conclusion, not nearly as much has changed with Slaf as is being claimed

The overall chance generation is worse.

But, going from 1 minute a night on an abysmal PP2 unit in montreal, to 4 minutes a night on a PP unit with Caufield leads to a vast change in production not driven by slaf himself.

That coupled with a vast improvement in the talent around him deployment also again leads people to see improvement that really isn't there.

Of course, add all that together with going from incredibly bad shooting luck pre december, to very good shooting luck since and it creates a mirage.

I think Slaf's performance was heavily underrated early in the year, and is now very much overrated.

Very good and promising young player, but no, he didn't suddenly become much better overnight.

Buyouts

Karl Alzner: $833,333

Retained Salary Transactions

Joel Edmundson: $1,750,000 (50%)
Jeff Petry: $2,343,750 (50%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$83,500,000	$74,975,416	$1,170,000	$3,977,500	$8,524,584

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Caufield, Cole $7,850,000$7,850,000 LW, RW UFA - 8	Suzuki, Nick $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 7	Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4
Pearson, Tanner $3,250,000$3,250,000 LW UFA - 1	Evans, Jake $1,700,000$1,700,000 C UFA - 2	Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 4
Newhook, Alex $2,900,000$2,900,000 C, LW RFA - 4	Gignac, Brandon $775,000$775,000 C UFA - 2	Armia, Joel $3,400,000$3,400,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, RW RFA - 2		Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 2
Pezzetta, Michael $812,500$812,500 LW, RW UFA - 2		Ylönen, Jesse $775,000$775,000 RW, LW RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Matheson, Michael $4,875,000$4,875,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 3	Savard, David $3,500,000$3,500,000 RD UFA - 2	Allen, Jake $1,925,000$1,925,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Harris, Jordan $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD/RD RFA - 2	Kovacevic, Johnathan $766,667$766,667 RD UFA - 2	Montembeault, Samuel $1,000,000$1,000,000 G UFA - 1
Struble, Jayden $867,500$867,500 ($57,500$58K) LD RFA - 2		Primeau, Cayden $890,000$890,000 G RFA - 2
Guhle, Kaiden $863,333$863,333 ($420,000$420K) LD/RD RFA - 2
Xhekaj, Arber $828,333$828,333 LD/RD RFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
	Dvorak, Christian $4,450,000$4,450,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 3
	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 3
	Wideman, Chris $762,500$762,500 RD UFA - 1

Feb. 11 at 1:14 p.m.

CMac66

Jimmy Stu

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 1,479

Likes: 541

Breakout? No, growth? Hell yes

Jay27 liked this.

Feb. 11 at 1:20 p.m.

dgibb10

Thread Starter

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,920

Likes: 3,144

Or for New Years

Comparing pre new years to post new years
EV xGoals% down from 51->43 (similar drops for Corsi Fenwick, Shot%, actual goals)

Drops in shot attempts, expected goals, assists, since the new year at even strength (again his shooting% has doubled since the new year)

The habs power play has improved yes.

Although I'd argue that has more to do with the fact that they gave josh anderson 3 minutes a night on it pre new years and he did nothing with it and now he gets 1 minute a night on PP2

Feb. 11 at 1:23 p.m.

dgibb10

Thread Starter

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,920

Likes: 3,144

Quoting: CMac66

Breakout? No, growth? Hell yes

I like slaf a lot and he should have been put in this situation all year (Josh Anderson on PP1 should be a crime).

Just went from PP2+bad linemates+horrific shooting luck to good linemates+PP1+good shooting luck

Honestly imo he was more impressive early in the year with what he was doing in terms of chance generation 5v5 considering what he was working with

Feb. 11 at 1:39 p.m.

jonh514

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

Posts: 6,961

Likes: 3,042

He's always had the skill, he just lacked the confidence. He is making better decisions, but also, he's completing his passes, winning his board battles and hitting the net when he shoots more often than before.

ricochetii liked this.

Feb. 11 at 1:44 p.m.

dgibb10

Thread Starter

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,920

Likes: 3,144

Quoting: jonh514

Getting PP1 opportunities and easy looks from that (and ones in general from caufield and suzuki) is a great confidence booster which can impact your overall game I agree.

If you have to fight tooth and nail for every look because you don't get PP time and your linemates suck you try too much when you do get the opportunity or you try and force things.

Certainly not a coincidence that his EV shooting% shot up right when he moved to PP1 and with Cole and Nick.

I think 16% is a fair bit higher than what I expect him to be at going forward, but around 10-11% overall at even strength should be plenty.

Very good young player

jonh514 liked this.

Feb. 11 at 1:50 p.m.

jonh514

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

Posts: 6,961

Likes: 3,042

Quoting: dgibb10

Another primary assist today so far as well.

dgibb10 liked this.

Feb. 11 at 1:52 p.m.

dgibb10

Thread Starter

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,920

Likes: 3,144

Quoting: jonh514

Another primary assist today so far as well.

Josh Anderson and his 2 power play points in 105 minutes of PP1 time will be remembered

jonh514 liked this.

Feb. 11 at 1:57 p.m.

Black61

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 2,624

Likes: 1,672

Anyone whos actually watched can easily see the improvement

ricochetii liked this.

Feb. 11 at 2:01 p.m.

dgibb10

Thread Starter

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,920

Likes: 3,144

Quoting: Black61

Anyone whos actually watched can easily see the improvement

People watching see what they want to see.

The “eye test” looks a lot prettier when you go from poor linemates, PP2 time on a horrific unit, and a 3.5% shooting % to Suzuki+Caufield, PP1 time, and a 16% shooting %.

Feb. 11 at 2:09 p.m.

#10

CMac66

Jimmy Stu

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 1,479

Likes: 541

Quoting: dgibb10

I mean, there's so much more to prospect development than teammates, pp time and shooting luck. Coach probably didn't think he was ready to play with those better players, or wanted him to see if he could drive a line with lesser skill players. So him being on the top line generating less isn't him not being as impressive as it could be he has other players to drive the line, and he can develop other skills. Size, speed, creating space for his teammates, knowing where to be on the ice as plays develop.

So I can't get behind he was more impressive earlier in the year. Stats, even advanced stats don't tell everything. He's getting the trust of his coach to make smart nhl plays playing against top lines. At 19 almost 20, that's damn impressive. So yeah, short term, shooting percentage, chance generation take a hit. But he's growing his game a professional way, and that's something MSL and all Habs fans should be excited about

Fox_Czar_Cup liked this.

Feb. 11 at 3:52 p.m.

#11

GuyGuyGuy

Prime Primeau

Joined: Apr. 2023

Posts: 5,437

Likes: 2,153

Edited Feb. 11 at 4:14 p.m.

I think the high shooting % could be explained by the fact that he doesn’t shoot that much. He always wait until there is no other optiin to shoot and he has a hell of a shot

I would also like to know the difference in his defensive metrics.

Feb. 11 at 5:25 p.m.

#12

dgibb10

Thread Starter

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,920

Likes: 3,144

Quoting: GuyGuyGuy

I think it’s just a hot streak combined with getting better looks courtesy of Suzuki+Caufield. And of course once you see 1 or 2 go in it builds.

I expect him to settle around 11% in his career as around a 25-30 goal 70 point power forward.

(Also just wanna say Slaf has been light years better than Cooley this year imo)

Feb. 11 at 5:37 p.m.

#13

GuyGuyGuy

Prime Primeau

Joined: Apr. 2023

Posts: 5,437

Likes: 2,153

Quoting: dgibb10

Yeah, I agree with what you said.

I also agree he has been better than Cooley. The real question is more : Nemec or Slaf? It will be a debate for a long time. I think in the end Nemec might be better a little bit, but they will be at the top. I think both teams will be more than happy with the guy they picked

Billy316 liked this.

Feb. 12 at 7:36 p.m.

#14

Billy316

Jesus Christ Is King

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 2,576

Likes: 723

Quoting: GuyGuyGuy

I wanted Nemec personally
As good as i know he is
There's this aggressive side to Slaf i didnt know existed
He's not just another Kotkanemi laughing at everything not taking it seriously.
Slaf is the Goofy kid a lot but you FA you'll FO with him as he'll keep Laying the Boom with Big Hits you until you stay down

I love the player he's evolving into
Good as Nemec is i dont see future #1 guy and Team Leader in Points(top 3 most likely every year but i dont see a Karlsson as much anymore)
With Slaf i see a Future #1 Guy in MTL who will lead the team in points especially once Hutson gets here.
Hutson gets a ton of points with Tuch and his Brother playing the same role down low along the boards and infront of the net that Slaf's made a name doing for himself
He's the kind of Guy that can create a lot of rebounds for his Centers to making it all around a wise choice long term to keep Slaf and invest in him.

I woulda killed to get them both though

GuyGuyGuy liked this.

Feb. 12 at 7:41 p.m.

#15

dgibb10

Thread Starter

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,920

Likes: 3,144

Quoting: Billy316

Very optimistically Luke becomes Makar/Quinn and Nemec becomes Heiskenan/McAvoy

Nemec has even exceeded my expectations tbh. right into a top pairing 20+ minutes a night at 19 and has looked like he's been in the NHL for a decade. He's among the best in the league at not turning the puck over already which is shocking for a rookie.

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