Why is MTR involved in the deal at all? If Dubas trades him, he will retain 50% to make him fit for a better package. No reason to use a third team unless EDM is doing other deals that require cap space separately.

Pittsburgh declines

That’s an easy no, especially with us giving a 2nd rounder up for some unexplainable reason.

Easy no for Pittsburgh.

It's not a good sign when someone can immediately tell your allegiance when reading your AGM. There's no world in which retention of this amount would be worth anything more than a 4th. Also, since you seem to be suggesting this, Foegele isn't a cap dump.

Foegele is an upcoming ufa, and in total this trade would be around $6M in money. That's the only explanation for doing this tho, and the 2nd is MUCH.

So Montreal takes a $5M cap dump for only a 2nd + 4th?
That takes a 1st for sure. Even if its only for the rest of the season

Flames paid a 1st rd to take Monahan's contract. This trade is worth about $6M in Cap. A 2nd and a 4th is a bargain. Penguins get 3x 1st. rounders, a heavy price for Guentzel. Penguins get 3 pieces for a rebuild

Except come the deadline neither of those players are owed their full-fat cap hits for the season. Foegele is owed approximately $616k and should Montreal be doing the actual 50% retention on Guentzel, another $672k for that. The reality of the dollars owed is (with a lot of rounding in your favour) $1.3M.

Using Monahan's contract as a comparable (seeing that's your preference), that sort of retention should only cost about 20% of the first round pick that Calgary paid Montreal. Most draft pick values would suggest that for the Flames' pick currently being ninth overall, Edmonton would owe Montreal a late second. OP actually overpaid here.