You're trading the 2nd overall pick plus another first rounder for Zegras? Bold move...

Celebrini for Zegras?????????????????????? thank god u not the gm lmao

You MTL fans need to look at each others proposals. Some version of this has been sent out like 200 times in the last 2 months with the same comments again and again.

Harris and Ylonen are not interesting for ANA at all

The ‘24 MTL 1st could be depending on who falls there (this would be a draft floor trade) but I imagine if the players Verbeek would consider (Lev and Lindstrom) were available, MTL would prefer to just make the selection. Zegras isn’t going anywhere

Lev and Lindstrom arent falling past 5. I'd be fine with moving the pick if its in the 6-9 range, prob gotta add a bit (habs), but if we get top 2, its def one of Celebrini and Lindstrom, even though Demidov is better than Lindstrom imo.

Every player in the top 10 of this draft is as good (and younger) or better than Zegras

Honestly anyone who pretends to know this with conviction is absolutely kidding themselves. I’d put my money on it that any pro scout worth his salt would never even say something remotely close to that.

It’s incredibly rare that a center puts up multiple 60pt seasons on their ELC in the NHL before the age of 22. Look up the list that accomplished it over the last 10 years. Caufield just hit 50 for the first time this year

Is it possible all 10 end up better than Zegras? Sure. Is it way more likely that a couple of them completely bust, and that another few become totally mediocre? Yes, absolutely.

Take a look at Zegras’s own draft top 10. 4 or 5 of those could reasonably be argued as trending toward a bust or mediocre. If anything, the most surprising pick has turned out to be one of the best in Seider. I’ll gladly take the sure bet 60 point capable first line C/LW at 20 and 21 years old who is still just turning 23 on a good contract that ends RFA, but maybe that’s just me 🤷‍♂️

Half of his point came on the PP. He stinks 5v5. Hes also horrific defensively, has injury issues and needs to grow into his frame. Thats a lot of maybes for a top 10 pick and another top 15 pick.

And putting him in a 2019 re draft and thinking that draft is anywhere near the quality of 2024, makes you a fool. This is my projected top 12. All of them are better or just as good as Zegras
1. Celebrini
2. Levshunov
3. Demidov
4. Lindstrom
5. Parekh
6. Catton
7. Dickinson
8. Silayev
9. Buium
10. Eiserman
11. Helenius
12. Greentree

Suggesting since he hit 60 as a 21 year old (hes regressed), and thinking theres no option but improvement is stupidity. Theres many players who had career highs at 21 and never got that high again.

There are so many issues to point out in this take.

5v5: He had 44 and 48 pts at even strength. Well beyond half. His even strength performances alone would have both been career high total point performances for Caufield up until this year

Defense: yes, he’s been offensively focused and successful at it. A 22 year old needs to round out his 200ft game? Just so you know, that’s normal. It was his focus this year annd he actively improved off the puck in his limited sample size. That showed statistically and more clearly via eyeball test despite coming in cold to a new system and playing through injury

Injuries: he had zero significant injuries prior to the NHL, and played 156 of 164 games theast 2 years. 2 unrelated injuries this year for the first time in his hockey career is not concerning

Grow into his frame: I cannot think of an easier thing for a pro athlete to address. If he can put up these performances with physical growth still to go, I love that the ceiling just keeps getting higher as he continues to build strength. He spends his offseason the right way with guys like Kreider and keeps coming back stronger. Zero concern

I never proposed a 2019 redraft. I said top 10 draft picks disappoint every year and used his draft as one example. Look at 2018 and 2017, both with ~4 again. The point is there are busts compared to projections every single year, and that’s consistently true. Which is why no scout worth his salt would have the false confidence to pretend that all of their personally preferred 12 draft prospects would top a multi-60pt NHL scorer on their ELC.

Regression/progression: Regressed 😂. He gutted through 20 games with an injury in a new system and played better off the puck. Improvement is totally not the only option. But if you look historically, it is the more likely option by far, especially for a player who did it back-to-back at that age

The point is, there’s a reason that you won’t find a single Ducks fan here who wants him moved, why half the locker room is best friends with him, and why the coach talks about him like he’s our best player despite missing nearly the whole year. I’m sorry if I’m finding it hard to take you seriously, but it’s comical how different your pov would be if Zegras did all of this for MTL. And I get that you don’t get to watch him play consistently. We’re on the west coast so games are late and our team has been garbage, and not at all worth staying up for, but you just shouldn’t talk like you know if you don’t

Ha, easier to just say you don't know what you're talking about.

Well said. That comment suggests he both doesn't know how the draft works (all 12 top picks are going to be hits apparently) and also doesn't watch or know a thing about Zegras' game.

And Zagras (who has regressed) will always be a hit? Theres as much to show Zegras being a 60 point player again as any of the prospects. Only difference is one is 22 and wants to be paid more than hes worth and the other 18

He hasn't regressed. He's been hurt all year and adjusting to a new, defensively focused system. Both his head coach and GM are on the record this season praising his commitment to two-way play. If you've watched ANA at all this year, you'd see how noticeably different its offense and specifically its PP are without Zegras in the lineup.

And arguing "there's as much to show Zegras being a 60 point player again as any of the prospects" is just silly. One has already done it. But apparently a 20 game sample is more important to you than the last two seasons?

You should read your comment again. A player who’s proven he can score 60 points in the NHL twice has quite literally.. shown he can score 60 points in the NHL.. twice. Thats 2 veeeery relevant things more to show than all of those prospects combined 😂

I think we’ve reached the resolution here. I wish you well buddy

Zegras and Caufield on the same team would be hilarious...

Offense only wingers.

Tyler Seguin hit 84 at 22, never surpassed it
Johansen hit 71 at 22, never surpassed it
Bobby Ryan hit 71 at 23, never surpassed it
Vanek hit 84 at 22, never surpassed it
Jaden Schwartz hit 63 at 22, never surpassed it
Alexander Wennberg hit 59 at 22, never surpassed it

Being good at 22 doesnt guarantee staying good into your late 20s. For that package, i expect a ppg player already. Not one that may or most likely, may not become one

lol my man. There are exceptions to the norm in almost anything. If I pulled out and showed you 5 shirts from my closet that are blue, does it mean every shirt in my closet is blue? 😂 If you want to know the likelihood that an NHL player peaks at 21/22, you can easily do so by looking at a reasonable random sample of NHL players.

For example, let’s take the Montreal Canadiens roster from the start of this year and look at every forward who’s older than 25 (since that gives them at least 3 years where they at least had a chance to outperform their 21/22 year old seasons). It’s a small sample, but decent enough for our purposes.

Anderson, Armia, Evans, Gallagher, Harvey-Pinard, Pearson, Pezzetta, Suzuki, Monahan all had their best year after 22. Only Colin white did not. That means 1 in 10 peaked pre-23, or 10%. Therefore you can reasonably assume that the odds that Zegras (and Caufield for that matter) have peaked, is around 10%. Not a great bet to assume he’s never matching 60 points again.

No offense, but I just don’t think we’re arguing this on equal ground, it’s time to throw in the towel and move on my friend

You just named 5 a bunch of players who dont play the same position or same play style as Zegras. Like you couldve named Lemieux and Jagr as well as players who were great past 22. Its the norm but Zegras has already shown regression. How many back to back 60 points players at 22, have a 30 points average season right after? Very rare. How many of those players recover and improve on their career highs? Even rarer

Im not sure you grasp the meaning/importance of a random sample. But sure it’s reasonable to adjust the sample to a more relevant group. Here are the active players who scored more than 60 and less than 70 points at 21 years old

Not old enough to say: Svech, Boldy, Cozens
Not their best year: Nylander, Larkin, Monahan, Point, Pettersson, Kopitar, Kucherov, Forsberg, Eichel, Gaudreau,
Their best year: Barzal, RyJo, Laine (though he has some personal issues)

First and foremost, check out the limited company Zegras is in.. Next, that’s a 3/13 chance the player peaked in production (23%), nowhere near what you would then predict going forward. Also, even the guys who ‘peaked’ are pretty damn solid

But he already ‘regressed’ this year’? Among the 10 players who didn’t peak, 6 of them regressed somewhat in one of the 2 seasons after. Take a look at Nylander for the most similar comp. He dropped down to 0.5pts/game on a 50ish game sample size after also having a contract holdout with his team. He also was argued to have a poor 200ft game as well. How worried are you about Nylander now?

At the end of the day, it’s honestly just abundantly clear that you a) don’t watch Zegras much, b) have a clear bias, and c) don’t arrive at conclusions very logically. If you’re stubborn enough to feel like your point still stands, there’s nothing the world can do for you. Let’s circle back here in a year or two. Wish you good health