two questions:
1. what sort of dirt does don sweeney have on Swayman to get him to sign something so ridiculous?
2. Have you not seen Morgan Geekie play? I'm honestly not sure if boston would move him for a first.

The only realistic free agency senario in there are Lindholm and Heinem.

Would boston do Geekie+Ullmark for NJD 1st (9th overall)? (I have no idea if NJD would pay this much but it's off the dome)

I think given the lack of draft capital this team has, it would be really hard to turn that down. really hard. like really really really hard. I also know that they love Geekie, and I think they likely see him as a true Bruin, and someone they want to be part of the long-term plan.

who am i kidding, if it's a top 10 pick you've got a deal.

Fair enough. I don't know how NJD would value Geekie (but I feel like he'd fill a hole we need), but I'd be fine if we did it tbh. I wasn't expecting the pick to be this high so the more I can get from it the better, and move onto next year.

My big question is just how much would I have to add to that top 10 pick to get a crack at Swayman if contract negotiations falter?

Apologies for what I'm sure is annoying with asks for Swayman (who will almost certainly not be on the market) but it comes from respect and the acknowledgment that he is a stud who I would kill to have in NJD

With a good extension, could be worth it. As strict rental, I’d pass.

I'd start with the offer sheet cost and go from there. A few possible compensations:
(A): 6x6.5m: (1) 1st, (1) 2nd, (1) 3rd
(B): 7x6.5m through 7x7.5m, 6x8m: (2) 1sts, (1) 2nd, (1) 3rd
(C): 7x8m: (4) 1sts

The deal in (A) almost certainly gets matched by the Bruins, so that is probably a non-starter. But I include it in case you disagree. The deal in (C) is probably too rich, but I include it because it is the next step up in terms of possible compensation.

So we're looking at a starting point of something similar to (2) 1sts, (1) 2nd, (1) 3rd. The price is likely a bit higher than the offer sheet compensation because you are paying for the guarantee that Boston doesn't "match the offer" so to speak, but that is where I'd start the discussion.

I’d definitely offer NJDs 25, 26 1sts and 25 2nd and 3rds as a starting point for swayman.

I’d love to play around with potential offer sheets and what would be matched vs wouldn’t and if it’s then valuable to NJD. No bearing on real life because teams don’t actually do offer sheets ever, but a fun exercise

Given the position the Bruins are in (still trying to maximize Pasta/McAvoy's prime while on a roster downturn), I'm guessing that they would want a mix of draft picks and prospects/roster players, so that compensation I mentioned was more about establishing a general value. I think these are some of the things they would be fishing for:
* Picks in the top 3 rounds in 2024
* 2nd round pick in 2025
* Center prospects with top 6 potential
* 2nd line (or higher if willing) scoring winger prospects/roster players
* LD prospect/roster player with up to 2nd pairing potential (or higher if willing)

I'm not saying that they will get all of those things. But those are the areas I'd suspect they would ask for the compensation to fill. Pending UFAs could meet some of those roster player needs, but obviously those cannot be centerpieces of the deal.

I think our LD that fits the category is Bahl, although a guy I’m really high on as a prospect is Topias Vilen. I’ve really liked him
Our C would be Mercer (although he’d be more of a roster player)
Winger would be Holtz (and maybe Gritysuk but the Russian factor is always in play)
Obviously picks are picks, we’ve got all of our 1st, a pair of 25 2nds, and then just picks throughout

I don't have a good sense on the value of each of those guys these days, but I think those are probably good suggestions. I'd assume the Bruins FO would most covet Mercer. The other players you mentioned make sense, but I think Lysell is pretty comparable to Holtz, so unless the Bruins have given up on him I'd probably pass on Holtz and give Lysell a shot. And I think Bahl is solid, but I think they'd rather go after free agents than use assets on him.

Let's say: Mercer's RFA rights (=1st + 3rd + a little extra), 2024 1st, and 2025 2nd. Does that sound fair? I'd love to swap that 2025 2nd for a D prospect, but I feel like the ones you all have are either too high-end for you all to trade or not worth a 2nd, so I'm thinking just keeping the 2nd is the best choice.

Overall, I can't say that I'd want the Bruins to do that, because it is a big gamble. But if they re-signed Ullmark, I could at least see the strategy. And perhaps the trade value is reasonable? Fun to think about, but probably not happening!

9OA woild likely only be moved for a guy like Saros. There really isn’t any reason the price for Ullmark would be that steep, with even the best goalies in the past typically moving for much less.

The only exception would be Corey Schneider who would be 4 years younger at the time the season would start, and moved for 9OA alone in a pretty solid draft.

so give up players for picks and rebuild? are u insane

i think swayman is likely just off the table.

I think the absolute highest I’d go with Mercer involved is Mercer+2025 1st and even that would be a tough sell

I have Mercer valued at around 2 1sts+, then our 2024 1st, then holtz around there, then Casey below that, then our 2025 1st, then the 2026 1st, then Arseni, then bahl is about = in my eyes to the 2nds, then you get into the lower tier of prospects

I’d rather just counter and offer Ullmark / 2025 first for Mercer.

Not super interested in discussing a player we are planning on signing unless given an offer that makes us change our mind, Any package id ask for Swayman, you’d say no to

More than understandable. I’m sure NJD will be in on Ullmark again in the offseason, so we’ll see what happens there (it’s more fun to think about the swayman possibility for me tho, because he’s ofc the better, younger goalie)