why does vlasic have an aav of 6 mil? i guess people just like to give any player with the last name vlasic an overpayment....

$6M is a bit much, but I'd expect $5 for 7 years or something around that.

I guess you missed the part where Alex Vlasic has been one of the best top-4 defensive d-men in the league this year, in his first full-time season in the NHL. There has been plenty of speculation about locking him up with term. Because in a few years, he could possibly command way more than that, especially considering how much the cap is supposed to go up over the next bunch of years. As @exo2769 said, $6M is probably too much, but it isn't too far off.

6 Million is probably not too much with the cap projection. If he would sign for anywhere in 5-6?I would be ecstatic.

For a contract with such a small sample size to go off of, $6M could be too much. I would understand if they went that route, because I'm almost sure that as the team gets better his offense will follow. But if he turns out to just be a shutdown guy, I would rather not chance the overpayment. If Vlasic and his agent are looking for that on a long term deal, I think KD probably opts for the bridge deal at like $2.5-3.5M x 2 or 3 years. Maybe even go 4 years, walk him to free agency and then try to get him locked up before that contract expires.

AFP predicts him, for a long term deal, at $4.7M x 6, and, for a short term deal, $2.5M x 3 years. And they are usually pretty accurate, taking a lot of different variables into account, including, but not limited to, historical contract data, cap projections, stats, and development arcs.

It's clear you haven't been watching him, but he ranks top 5 in the NHL in the defensive zone this year as a rookie and that's on the top line against the toughest competition. He's a stud player.

The Athletic player cards predict him at $5.5M or $6M deal (can't recall) on a long term deal so this isn't far off IMO either. In fact, I doubt he and his agent will take $5.5M or $6M on a long term and would rather bet on his ability and the cap increasing over the next few years. I doubt he is willing to sign even a 3 year bridge for under $3M, maybe $3.5M or $4M. Let's keep in mind, as a rookie playing on the first line against the toughest comp and ranks top 5 in the NHL in the defensive zone this year (as of looking at this a few weeks ago). Needless to say, he's clearly been a stud on a very bad team

His contract situation is indeed a bit unusual. He's literally 1 NHL game away from being in consideration for Calder votes, but at the same time he's arbitration eligible. He's got quite a bit of leverage if he chooses to use it...in comparison to other prospects, BUT he also needs to generate more point production in order to get a larger contract. He'll probably sign a bridge deal if he wants to bet on himself. I 100% agree he's been outstanding for the Hawks. I just can't go the way of the Leafs and start handing out contracts for something that might be one day in the future. Maybe he goes for a Rasmus Sandin type contract, but a little less say 5 years $4M flat? Gets him more immediate dollars today vs the bridge, but he can still sign as a UFA somewhere when he's 28...prime UFA year.

Yes, very hard to predict. We'd have to imagine there is a hometown discount as well in play. I know the Vlasic family in Wilmette and he is very close to his parents and sister and loves being home. My guess is, his agent will want to bet on him as a player being only 22 years old and go for a bridge deal of 3 years so they can cash in much bigger in 3 more seasons. I do think $3M to $4M is probably accurate for bridge. I don't think the Hawks will get him for 5 years for $4M, that number just seems to be way low regardless of point production. Top line shut down guys get at least $5.5M+ in the league today on longer deals, and with the cap jumping $5M this next year, that number is going to go up as we both know, historical contracts are used to negotiate based on a percentage of cap not a specific number.

While Alex doesn't have the resume yet, he does have the fact he's only 22 years of age going for him and showing he can not only hang in that role but thrive; upside could be huge and that is what his agent is going to push and the Hawks will need to pay if they can agree on a longer term deal. $5M+ for anything long term IMO, but my betting hat would say they do a bridge for 2 to 4 years (let's say 3) for $3M to $4M.

Yeah. But Dom and his model are dumb. So, I don't really care what the Athletic says. haha.

He certainly is a stud. And I have no worries about him having a fantastic career. But at a cap hit like that, the offense should be a lot more evident, and could put us in a tough spot in a few years if he turns out to just be a shutdown D without any untapped offense. It could be fine in the short term, but force KD to make the kind of tough decisions that he is trying to avoid down the road. Again, if they end up going that route, cool, I'm on board, but I don't think it is so cut and dry. It is risky, and KD is generally risk averse. Personally, I think it is a reasonable number and I wouldn't hesitate to pay him that, but I leave room for other variables and calculations I may not be aware of, or the unknowns. I am not the GM.

Their model isn't dumb IMO, but to each their own.

Not necessarily. Having a defensive player playing defense first and foremost is generally preferred. Top line lock down defenseman are very difficult to find in the league and are the perfect pairing compliment to one that plays a more offensive game in an ideal world. We've seen this over the years be extremely successful with competing teams. Vlasic's point production isn't there but his transition game is as we see him doing well pushing the neutral zone and of course his d zone game is top notch. I think the hawks should try to lock him in at $5.5M or even $6M on a long term deal and against the cap next year and moving forward as it continues to rise, is a bargain for what he provides. However, I highly doubt his agent will motivate Vlasic to take that kind of number for 6 to 8 years as he knows with the cap going up, in 3 or 4 years after a bridge, Vlasic could get better.

If the Hawks grab Levshunov in the draft, which I also thinks plays a role, a first line of Levhsunov and Vlasic is the type of combination that can be a cup winning type of pairing. Korchinski on the 2nd line with Rinzel demonstrates this again with the reversal of stay at home versus points guy switching from left to right and right to left. It could be quite ideal long term.

I couldn't agree more about dmen being defense first. In fact, I prefer that. And, I absolutely agree that he could be an ideal long term fit. But we are talking about his AAV here. $6M x 7 (or however many) years is a lot for a young kid with only one full season under his belt, and it is also at the very top end of what defensive dmen generally get. There is no rush to lock him up. Being cautious and patient and wanting a larger sample size is not a bad way to go. It's not like he is going to price himself out of CHI.

Also, like any model there are useful and informative aspects. But Dom is an idiot, and I take everything he does or says with a grain of salt. I followed him for a while and then stopped because I disliked him. And then I re-followed him again thinking maybe I was being harsh, and he again said a lot of dumb stuff that made me once again not give a crap about anything he has to say.

Well that's the risk both sides contemplate. $6M is the going rate for a lock down first line dman right now against the current cap. In a few years, it's going to be a bargain. But as you said, it can also backfire both ways because Vlasic has only one season under his belt. He can regress or he can get even a lot better. Chances are he will get better which is why if the Hawks can, they should gamble and lock him in at $5.5m or $6m. Generally the agent and player will gamble on themselves and expect him to be a top 4 lock down guy down the road and knowing the increase in cap year over year, they could probably land a $8m deal in a few years.

It's an interesting debate looking at both sides of the risk plus the team's perspective versus the player & agent. More than likely they land on a 2 to 3 year bridge because of all this at a $3M to $3.5M deal; 4 would push him to UFA status I believe which would be bad.

I don't think it would be inherently bad, but yeah, it definitely wouldn't be preferable. Either way, I'm good with it.