Hyman hits 50 at age 31

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: jonh514

Team: 2024-25 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 25, 2024

Published: Mar. 25, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

I am not a fan of the ageist undertones on this site. Fans of all teams act as though players on multi-year deals heading into their mid 30s are time bombs. Basically the undertones are, "we will have to accept some years of decline in order to get access to the prime years", rather than saying, "I love seeing this player at his peak and am proud that he plays for my team".

There is very little recognition of the things players between the ages of 30-37 bring to teams. When one of those players has a good season, they are viewed as an outlier. If a player in that age range puts together multiple good seasons, they are viewed as less valuable than players who put up significantly less points because those younger players are "obviously eventually going to get there".

Case in point: Nobody is trading Cole Caufield for Zach Hyman who is heading for his second consecutive PPG season at age 31 and who just hit 50 goals.

I get it, time is undefeated! I know one day soon Caufield will outscore Hyman and that season everyone who values youth over experience will be thrilled that "the world makes sense again". But where is the recognition that "if we had 30 more goals this season, the team who lost the highest number of 1 goal games this season would probably be in contention for the playoffs".

Veteran players like Monahan, Marchessault, Stephenson have so much left to give to their teammates and to the fans. They are no more risky than playing an unproven player who was drafted in the first round and expecting them to put up 60 points for the 1st time.

Free Agent Signings

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Reinhart, Sam		7	$11,500,000

Trades

MTL

Hyman, Zach

Additional Details:

Not a real trade, just for illustration

EDM

Caufield, Cole

Retained Salary Transactions

Jeff Petry: $2,343,750 (50%)
Jake Allen: $1,925,000 (50%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$87,500,000	$77,988,750	$1,022,500	$3,977,500	$9,511,250

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hyman, Zach $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW NMC UFA - 4	Suzuki, Nick $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 6	Reinhart, Sam $11,500,000$11,500,000 RW UFA
Newhook, Alex $2,900,000$2,900,000 C, LW RFA - 3	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 2	Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 1
Roy, Joshua $835,000$835,000 LW, RW RFA - 2	Evans, Jake $1,700,000$1,700,000 C UFA - 1	Armia, Joel $3,400,000$3,400,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 3	Dvorak, Christian $4,450,000$4,450,000 C M-NTC UFA - 1	Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 3

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Matheson, Michael $4,875,000$4,875,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2	Savard, David $3,500,000$3,500,000 RD UFA - 1	Montembeault, Samuel $3,150,000$3,150,000 G UFA - 3
Harris, Jordan $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD/RD RFA - 1	Kovacevic, Johnathan $766,667$766,667 RD UFA - 1	Primeau, Cayden $890,000$890,000 G RFA - 1
Struble, Jayden $867,500$867,500 ($57,500$58K) LD RFA - 1
Guhle, Kaiden $863,333$863,333 ($420,000$420K) LD/RD RFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Pezzetta, Michael $812,500$812,500 LW, RW UFA - 1		Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 2
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, RW RFA - 1

Mar. 25 at 9:44 a.m.

my_name_is_Fil

Joined: Nov. 2023

Posts: 852

Likes: 284

illustrate with someone other than our little bundle of joy.

try gallagher

jonh514 liked this.

Mar. 25 at 9:49 a.m.

littlejerryseinfeld

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 27,788

Likes: 14,519

It's almost like his massive spike in production began exactly when he started playing with the best player in the world.

Bcarlo25 and jonh514 liked this.

Mar. 25 at 9:52 a.m.

SupremeBone

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 2,441

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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld

It's almost like his massive spike in production began exactly when he started playing with the best player in the world.

Began and has continued year-over-year since.

jonh514 liked this.

Mar. 25 at 9:56 a.m.

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 21,147

Likes: 6,988

well, posters are right to do so. I don't think many are saying, "this guy is signed through his late 30s, therefore the contract will be bad," but more of, "that's risky." And it is. Of course it is. the vast majority of contracts like that do not age well. we see teams paying to move guys, we see buyouts, and we also see some of them work out. This site is called capfriendly....most of what we're talking about are cap implications, and the underlying economics of the league from a stance of risk.

Take a guy from my team like Pastrnak. I'm thrilled to have him on my team, but I of course acknowledge that its unlikely he's going to be worth that contract in the last few years. I'm still happy they signed it, it's just the cost of doing business.

It's kind of naive to buy a car with 160,000 miles on it and think, "this will age well." Same is true of NHL players. foolish to ignore aging trends and the data we have.

MisstheWhalers, palhal, Huge_Caniac_Abe_Lincoln and 1 other person liked this.

Mar. 25 at 10:14 a.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,547

Likes: 22,689

I'm one who think it's risky to sign players to long term term contracts till their mid thirties. But that's especially true for Dmen.
Hyman is certainly an exception so far. Of course if the 32 GMs had seen this in Hyman in summer of 2022 when he was a UFA, and expected him to continue this play throughout his contract, don't you think he would have been offered a 8m X 7 contract at least instead of 5.5m X 7?

jonh514 liked this.

Mar. 25 at 10:21 a.m.

drambui

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 3,816

Likes: 2,507

lets be real, hyman would never score 50 goals in Montréal. even when playing with matthews and marner he was not close.

MisstheWhalers and jonh514 liked this.

Mar. 25 at 11:46 a.m.

jonh514

Thread Starter

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Quoting: my_name_is_Fil

illustrate with someone other than our little bundle of joy.

try gallagher

Maybe I should illustrate with:

Kirby Dach
Alex Newhook
Filip Zadina
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Joe Veleno
Yegor Chinakhov
Josh Norris
Nils Hoglander
Pierre Luc Dubois
Lawson Crouse

and about 50 other former highly touted first round picks aged 22-26 who are performing at less than half the rate of scoring as 31 year old Zach Hyman?

Mar. 25 at 11:46 a.m.

jonh514

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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld

It's almost like his massive spike in production began exactly when he started playing with the best player in the world.

You think he wouldn't score 60 points and 30 goals on another team?

Mar. 25 at 11:55 a.m.

jonh514

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Quoting: SupremeBone

Began and has continued year-over-year since.

So let me get this straight. Anyone could do it, right? Take any player who previously scored 30-40 points per season, put him next to Crosby in his prime or McDavid, and that guy becomes a PPG player? That's what we're saying?

Do we now minimize the contributions of Nick Backstrom because "any center could have played with Ovechkin"?

Mar. 25 at 12:07 p.m.

#10

jonh514

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Quoting: Bcarlo25

Ok. So let's talk about risk. There are about 100 active players in the NHL aged 22-26 who were drafted in round 1 and are scoring at a pace below 50 points/season. Many of those guys are on bridge deals, but a lot of them have already signed long term contracts which are "currently" performing less well than many players in their early 30s.

To use your analogy: Some people are buying cars assuming they will work at peak performance until 200,000 KMs but are finding that it will take them until 100,000 KMs to "maybe" perform as well as the cars which are already at 100,000 KMs and are performing incredibly well, but "may" decline at 160,000 KMs.

Why are people on this site supportive of the risk inherent in the underperforming youth if not for ageism?

Mar. 25 at 12:14 p.m.

#11

jonh514

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Quoting: palhal

Listen, I respect your opinion, but you need to take a step back and be honest about the fact that most teams have guys aged 22-26 who they are paying 5M+ to, who are performing at half the rate Hyman is, and who the fans are incredibly supportive of.

Those same fans would freak out if their team offered 11M x 7 to Sam Reinhart screaming about how he's gonna eventually decline.

The years it takes a player under team control to "maybe" get to their peak, and the inherent risk in the chance that they don't (like my buddy Josh Anderson) is not really something they worry about.

All I'm saying is, "they should" because it happens as often that a 25 year old player underperforms as a 34 year old player has a steep decline.

Mar. 25 at 12:15 p.m.

#12

jonh514

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HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: drambui

lets be real, hyman would never score 50 goals in Montréal. even when playing with matthews and marner he was not close.

Sure I'm with you there. But he would still perform better than:

Kirby Dach
Alex Newhook
Filip Zadina
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Joe Veleno
Yegor Chinakhov
Josh Norris
Nils Hoglander
Pierre Luc Dubois
Lawson Crouse

Wouldn't he?

Mar. 25 at 12:42 p.m.

#13

littlejerryseinfeld

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 27,788

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Quoting: jonh514

You think he wouldn't score 60 points and 30 goals on another team?

That's a big difference from 50 plus!

MisstheWhalers liked this.

Mar. 25 at 12:48 p.m.

#14

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 21,147

Likes: 6,988

Quoting: jonh514

first off for accuracy of the analogy, we're using miles here.

secondly, to assume there is ageism is ridiculous. this is just people looking at data. for forwards, the prime of a guys career is over by 30. sometimes guys age gracefully, but usually they don't. I trust we don't actually have to go through data here? the most problematic contracts tend to be deals that are buying out 100% UFA years, taking guys beyond the age of 35. Those are the ones that often give you a couple good years, and five really bad years. Those are the deals we see GMs moving assets to ditch, or retaining salary, or buying out most frequently. It's just dealing with reality.

Mar. 25 at 1:05 p.m.

#15

Jackaille

Joined: Jun. 2023

Posts: 137

Likes: 21

imagine if Toronto still had him LOL
Dubas destroyed that club

jonh514 liked this.

Mar. 25 at 1:20 p.m.

#16

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

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On this point: it's more because the game's getting faster while these guys are starting to slow down... And that's when (on top of the collection of injuries) the foot speed and what the body will give starts to disappear... Meaning fans want to see their young team get younger...

As for Caufield vs Hyman, I'm taking Hyman in a heart beat from Caufield being awful defensively

Mar. 25 at 1:22 p.m.

#17

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

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Quoting: Jackaille

imagine if Toronto still had him LOL
Dubas destroyed that club

Why does this matter? Hyman priced himself out of Toronto

And Dubas is ensuring that a Nuge/Lucic/Josh Anderson/Brendan Gallagher/Joel Armia situation doesn't happen

Mar. 25 at 1:58 p.m.

#18

Jackaille

Joined: Jun. 2023

Posts: 137

Likes: 21

Quoting: Leafsfan98

Why does this matter? Hyman priced himself out of Toronto

And Dubas is ensuring that a Nuge/Lucic/Josh Anderson/Brendan Gallagher/Joel Armia situation doesn't happen

win 2 rounds of playoff before saying it's working

Mar. 25 at 2:43 p.m.

#19

drambui

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 3,816

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Quoting: jonh514

i mean, maybe not?

dubois has a down year,

Quoting: jonh514

i mean, maybe not? before mcdavid hyman was worse than most of these players. maybe if you stick him on a first line, with suzuki and slaf, he could get a fair amount of points.

watch caufield get traded to Edmonton and he will get more points and goal than hyman in Mtl would.

dubois has been a consistent 60 points player until this year too, its too early to put him as a washed player.

Longstory short, playing with drai and mcdavid is gonna inflate your point, and hyman is making the most of it. it can be hard to know how it translate to another team.

Mar. 25 at 6:32 p.m.

#20

jonh514

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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld

That's a big difference from 50 plus!

Sure is, but for 5.5M at 60 pts, he's bringing more value than tons of young "stars" in the league.

Mar. 25 at 7:51 p.m.

#21

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

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Quoting: Jackaille

win 2 rounds of playoff before saying it's working

Win a game in Round 3 before saying your strategy's working 🤷‍♂️

And EDM doesn't get by Tampa or Florida these past 2 years either...

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