2L CentreMarn

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: BriGuy

Team: 2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Apr. 10, 2024

Published: Apr. 11, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Things I think.

- Marner is not getting traded, and will be re-signed (8 x 12.5?). Take it as you will. I have been in the trade Marner camp for years, but he is just such an elite talent, just cant be replaced. However, he needs to drive his own line, at minimum be on a line apart from AM34. Why not become the 2C ??? If he (or Nylander for that matter, but I think Marner's definsive acumen + distribution make him the better fit) can be 2C, it will be so much easier (and cheaper) to find wingers than it will be to sign or trade for another 2C.

- I dont think Bert is re-signing. I think it was always a 1 year deal, a chance to boost his stock after not getting term last year. Plus, there will be a strong market for him and he will be priced out. Which sucks. Gimme Bert-AM-Domi for the next 3-4 years please! :( He brings such an underappreciated skill set to the team, good vision, great in the corners and net front, great when the game gets tight, etc.

-I dont know how to approach the G situation. On one hand, Woll hasn't proven he can carry the load, or even be part of a 1A/1B tandem with cheap goalie IMO. The UFA market is garbage (overpaying for a good backup in F/A rarely works). Plus, I don't that they will have to be able to swing a mid-season trade for a legit goalie if it hits the fan (no moveable $$$ outside Core4+Rielly).
*Based on Sammy's stats, his body of work in the playoffs and how he's bounced back this season, at the very least we can use these comparables:
-Mrazek 2x4.25
-Husso 3x4.75
-Korpisalo 5x4
-Jarry 5x5.375
-Elvis 5x5.4
-Campbell 5x5
-Grubauer 6x5.9
**I dont think I really want Sammy at that cap hit & term. He will likely get 4x$4.5 minimum on the open market. You have to think Woll is ready to be 1A by 25-26, and Hildeby not far after. If Woll flops, I guess you go the trade route, re-evaluate next year.
*** So if Sammy isn't available at 1x5 or 2x4ish, I would probably go G by committee with something like a Talbot/Nedjelkovic/Stolarz/Brossoit as a 1A/1B with Woll, and someone like Jones, Copely or Murray as a 3G.

-I think the Leafs will be priced out of the cream of the RD market (Roy / Pesce / Montour). These guys will get 6.5 +. DeMelo/Lyubushkin could also be something like Tanev/Carrier. (I went with age & familiarity), or maybe a Dumba, Walker, Myers, Chatfield or Desharnais somewhere in there.

-Without much D depth in the farm ready to step up, I think it's imperative to have at least #7 on the roster. As for FWDs, there are plenty of young waiver exempt guys chomping at the bit to play in a game or two whenever called upon.

Thats all for now i guess

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Webber, Cade		3	$825,000
Grebyonkin, Nikita		3	$825,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Dewar, Connor	2	$1,100,000
Liljegren, Timothy	1	$3,000,000
Robertson, Nicholas	2	$1,350,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Domi, Max	5	$3,500,000
Lyubushkin, Ilya	2	$2,500,000
Edmundson, Joel	3	$2,500,000
Carrick, Sam	2	$950,000
Talbot, Cam	1	$2,500,000
Murray, Matt	1	$800,000
DeMelo, Dylan	3	$4,000,000
Brown, Joshua	1	$800,000

Trades

TOR

2026 5th round pick (STL)

STL

Kämpf, David

TOR

2024 3rd round pick (DAL)
2025 3rd round pick (COL)

NSH

Liljegren, Timothy

TOR

2024 7th round pick (CGY)

SEA

Timmins, Conor

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$87,500,000	$84,794,667	$0	$0	$2,705,333

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Knies, Matthew $925,000$925,000 LW, RW RFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $13,250,000$13,250,000 C NMC UFA - 4	Domi, Max $3,500,000$3,500,000 C, RW UFA
McMann, Bobby $1,350,000$1,350,000 RW, LW UFA - 2	Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000$10,903,000 RW NMC UFA - 1	Nylander, William $11,500,000$11,500,000 RW NMC UFA - 8
Robertson, Nicholas $1,350,000$1,350,000 LW, RW RFA	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 1	Järnkrok, Calle $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, C, LW M-NTC UFA - 2
Holmberg, Pontus $800,000$800,000 C, LW RFA - 1	Dewar, Connor $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, C RFA	Carrick, Sam $950,000$950,000 C, RW UFA

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $7,500,000$7,500,000 LD NMC UFA - 6	Lyubushkin, Ilya $2,500,000$2,500,000 RD UFA	Talbot, Cam $2,500,000$2,500,000 G UFA
Edmundson, Joel $2,500,000$2,500,000 LD/RD UFA	DeMelo, Dylan $4,000,000$4,000,000 RD UFA	Woll, Joseph $766,667$766,667 G RFA - 1
Benoit, Simon $1,350,000$1,350,000 LD UFA - 3	McCabe, Jake $2,000,000$2,000,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Reaves, Ryan $1,350,000$1,350,000 RW UFA - 2
Brown, Joshua $800,000$800,000 RD UFA
Murray, Matt $800,000$800,000 G UFA

Taxi Squad
Grebyonkin, Nikita $825,000$825,000 ($0$0$0$0) RW RFA - 2
Minten, Fraser $816,667$816,667 ($0$0$0$0) C, LW RFA - 3
Quillan, Jacob $875,000$875,000 ($0$0$0$0) C RFA - 2
Tverberg, Ryan $851,667$851,667 ($0$0$0$0) RW, C RFA - 2
Rifai, Marshall $775,000$775,000 ($0$0$0$0) LD UFA - 1
Niemelä, Topi $856,667$856,667 ($0$0$0$0) RD RFA - 1
Webber, Cade $825,000$825,000 ($0$0$0$0) LD RFA - 1
Hildeby, Dennis $843,333$843,333 ($0$0$0$0) G RFA - 1

Apr. 11 at 3:13 p.m.

hockeynutter

Avid Sports Fan

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 1,203

Likes: 307

The problem with the defense is outside of Reilly zero puck movers. The new NHL is fast and the defense needs to be able to move the puck up the ice. Makar, Toews, Hughes, Hronek, petrilangelo, Theodore, Josi, Letang, karlsson, Byram, dahlin, power, oel, ekblad, doughty, bouchard, ekholm, I can keep going on a huge list of defenseman. The problem with this defence core is Benoit, edmundson, lyubushkin, McCabe and demelo are below average puck movers. This will keep the puck in our zone too long. Not that those defensemen are bad but we need a defenseman like Liljegren or equivalent added because they are good puck movers as well. An ideal pairing is like Reilly demelo, ???, ??/Liljegren, Benoit /McCabe, edmundson could be ???, but we still need one more for good depth. Reilly has shown to prop up lyubushkin, Hainsey, Schenn etc... because he is a good puck mover. I get the idea where we need grit and toughness on the blueliner but everyone forgets that Tre had Andersson, Hanifin and weegar on defense as well. It was not all Zadorovs and Tanev s.

BriGuy and palhal liked this.

Apr. 11 at 3:21 p.m.

Tennisman142

Joined: Jan. 2022

Posts: 3,248

Likes: 1,543

Don't really see the blues wanting Kampf with his term

Mortarhead, BriGuy and xercuses liked this.

Apr. 11 at 3:26 p.m.

StDetroitBlueWings

Joined: Feb. 2023

Posts: 999

Likes: 520

No on Kampf unless you attach a decent pick for future considerations, and still probably not tbh

Keep that contract

Mortarhead, BriGuy and xercuses liked this.

Apr. 11 at 3:26 p.m.

hockeynutter

Avid Sports Fan

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 1,203

Likes: 307

Quoting: Tennisman142

Don't really see the blues wanting Kampf with his term

His term is only 2 more years. There is lots of negotiation for a reliable bottom 6 six center. As Kampf is only marginally overpaid. Maybe not st Louis but I can see a scenario where he leafs gets a low round pick or upgraded low round pick like a 5th instead of a 7th with Kampf included.

BriGuy liked this.

Apr. 11 at 3:31 p.m.

Mortarhead

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 495

Likes: 82

Quoting: hockeynutter

I dont know that I agree about your assessment of liljegren..hes had plenty of opportunity, but hes so soft in the Dzone. I pray he finds his game (like the way he played with Rielly being suspended..Id take that version np)..hes just so inconsistent although your spot on that he is a decent puck mover..Benny I think is an underated puck mover..maybe doesnt have the offensive acumen of the guys you listed (long list lol) but he reminds me of a sylvain lefebvre (showing my age) hard in in own zone and good 1st short pass up to forwards...Team D is more important than just Dmen (not saying D can be poor as dog crap either)
D by committee imo.

BriGuy liked this.

Apr. 11 at 3:32 p.m.

Mortarhead

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 495

Likes: 82

Quoting: Tennisman142

Don't really see the blues wanting Kampf with his term

I agree, (Im a leaf fan) no one taking on that contract for a 5th imo..would have to include a sweetner or higher draft pick (which we cant afford)

BriGuy and xercuses liked this.

Apr. 11 at 3:39 p.m.

BriGuy

Thread Starter

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 47

Likes: 11

Quoting: hockeynutter

I do agree with your take on puck moving Dmen, but I just dont see a viable option on creating a dominant D corps with at least 2 puck moving studs with the cap space they have. I just dont see Lilly as part of the future. I wish I did, but he is prone to making mistakes & gets beat to often by hard forechecking teams. The hockey-sense and play under pressure has been a knock on him since his draft year. Lets wait and see if he actually plays in the playoffs though. If not, I think the writing is on the wall.

Apr. 11 at 3:39 p.m.

Mortarhead

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 495

Likes: 82

I dont think spending 4M on Demelo is wise..let some other team overpay..and I love your breakdown of your logic behind your moves.
Sammys playoffs will determine his future...a cup contender needs a good G..im no Talbot fan (as a 1A or B)
granted Vegas won with that level G, they also have a beyter defensive structure (that would make Sammy look even better) and big strong Dmen. (which Leafs lack as we know)
personally id like to see Carrier (Nsh) come if he is priced right. and Id keep Timmins and Liljegren (at the right price)
Im looking fwd to seeing what this group can do this year before any decisions are made for next season..and Brad seems to be a better negotiator than Dubas so maybe we get a deal here or there.?

BriGuy liked this.

Apr. 11 at 4:15 p.m.

xercuses

Xercuses

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 13,506

Likes: 3,616

blues decline

Apr. 11 at 4:26 p.m.

#10

MitchJr

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 4,393

Likes: 1,414

Good post. No reason to trade Kampf - keep him & don’t sign Steele - our bottom 6 is flush with options. Agree that it will be difficult to keep both Bert & Domi, which sucks but such is for under Bettman’s cap.
Let’s wait for playoffs before judging Lil but he’s shown enough to be a 2nd/3rd pair guy.
Finally, 23 man roster with cap space seems wasteful; cut it down to 22 and spend to cap.

BriGuy and hockeynutter liked this.

Apr. 11 at 4:27 p.m.

#11

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,979

Likes: 23,478

Kampf is difficult trade. Teams on his trade list, don't have cap for him. Why not keep Timmins, Leafs have the cap. Seems strange that Leafs could sign Brown for 800,000 but trade and get assets for the. more expensive Timmins
Rather have Liljegren than Edmundson or even Luby.

hockeynutter liked this.

Apr. 11 at 4:29 p.m.

#12

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,979

Likes: 23,478

Quoting: Mortarhead

Brad a better negotiator? That Huberdeau contract and seven years don't look good. Even eight years for Nylander is iffy.

Apr. 11 at 4:48 p.m.

#13

MidnightRyder

Joined: Jul. 2022

Posts: 365

Likes: 62

The Blues just gave Sunny a 2 yr x 1.5M contract to be their 4C.

Look it up.

BriGuy liked this.

Apr. 11 at 5:15 p.m.

#14

Armstrongs_burner

STL Blues GM

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 579

Likes: 89

jn no world are the blues interested in taking on kampf and his contract.

BriGuy liked this.

Apr. 11 at 5:16 p.m.

#15

Armstrongs_burner

STL Blues GM

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 579

Likes: 89

Quoting: Armstrongs_burner

jn no world are the blues interested in taking on kampf and his contract.

Quoting: xercuses

blues decline

Quoting: Mortarhead

I agree, (Im a leaf fan) no one taking on that contract for a 5th imo..would have to include a sweetner or higher draft pick (which we cant afford)

hes just sunny but worse

xercuses and BriGuy liked this.

Apr. 11 at 5:18 p.m.

#16

jaok3

Marner rocks

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 4,432

Likes: 953

I have asked this question multiple times and wonder Why? How does DeMelo get more than Bush? Bush will be on the PK and top pairing but gets 37.5% less money.

Apr. 11 at 5:21 p.m.

#17

xercuses

Xercuses

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 13,506

Likes: 3,616

Quoting: Armstrongs_burner

hes just sunny but worse

and more expensive

Apr. 11 at 5:23 p.m.

#18

Armstrongs_burner

STL Blues GM

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 579

Likes: 89

Quoting: xercuses

and more expensive

exactly, that falls under worse but im glad you said it

xercuses liked this.

Apr. 12 at 2:40 p.m.

#19

hockeynutter

Avid Sports Fan

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 1,203

Likes: 307

Quoting: Mortarhead

Yes, it is hard to gauge Liljegren in terms of true potential but puck movers are still key. Carolina and Colorado are two terms stacked with puck movers and Carolina is always considered one of the best teams. The good part of Liljegren is actually that he still young. The common misconception is that players ripen around 22. Where in reality especially with defencemen and goalies the ripen around 25-27. Liljegren can also sign at a salary of about 3 million or less for 2-3 years. Liljegren is better than lyubushkin as lyubushkin outside.of playing with Reilly has really struggled in both Buffalo and Anaheim. This gives us time to gauge Liljegren. Also because after this coming year. You have another reported 4 million in salary increase. Marner is looking at max a 1.5 million increase in salary. Tavares will be looking at a huge discount or leaving. Anywhere from 3-6 million is what many insiders predict for his salary. Even at 6, that saves us another 5 million in salary. The ability to upgrade the defense will be much easier if Liljegren can grow. Also this past year Liljegren had 2 big injuries and in between those injuries when Reilly was suspended Liljegren pretty much carried the defense himself. He is averaging between the 2nd and 4th most TOI every game. At his age a bridge deal where we basically double his salary is smart. His defence even with the warts is well worth around 2.5 million. He can also still easily improve to make his deal a steal for 2-3 years.

Apr. 12 at 2:43 p.m.

#20

hockeynutter

Avid Sports Fan

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 1,203

Likes: 307

Quoting: palhal

I agree we can sign Liljegren according to most experts for about 2.75 to 3, even with his problems we have a reliable top 4 that can move he puck and still improve. It is better than lyubushkin whom is propped by Reilly and on most teams they would use him as a 5-7 defenseman.

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Forums/Armchair-GM

2L CentreMarn

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