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A_Bear_On_Skates

A Bear On Skates
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May 16, 2018
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Toronto Maple Leafs
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Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 21, 2019 at 1:30 p.m.
Thread: The Return Of The Bern
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>I like the idea of playing with 23 man roster, but trading Ceci without any NHL capable replacement is not the solution. Holl and Marincin as full time regulars? And what happens when there is another injury on defence?
This distain for Ceci is really unfounded. It's more a of a ACGM fascination that started in July. He certainly hasn't been the worse Leaf Dman through the first eight games.</div></div>

- Holl and Marincin have looked quite capable. I'm comfortable with them frankly.
- Reilly and Ceci make a pretty horrible pairing since both like to jump up but neither really knows how to defend. Dermott is better than both of them when it comes to breaking up plays at the blue line.
- I really don't have a distain for Ceci... in fact I think a Ceci-Dermott pairing could be quite good as both are puck movers, both would be playing on their natural sides, but Dermott is better at defending than Reilly. And no, he hasn't been the worst D-Man so far... the real problem with Ceci is his contract. His strengths, fit in the lineup, and contract are all mismatched with each other. at $2m, I have no problems with him, even paired with Reilly.
- As far as injuries go, if one of your top players goes down you're going to have a bad time regardless. If one of the bottom 3 players goes down, there are valid options on the Marlies.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 21, 2019 at 1:00 p.m.
Thread: The Return Of The Bern
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>Mandela is one of the great athletes of his time, Right?

Toronto can keep Cici or offer better draft picks because he is nothing more than a cap dump. Do you really think he will resign in Detroit?</div></div>

Of course he is! Everyone knows that :D

I'm open to it. Or a prospect of some kind. But he would actually be one of Detroit's best, if not their best, blueliner. Or if he reverts to his worst Ottawa days, he's still better than about half the blue line. Either way, Bernier isn't part of the future, losing him would probably help the tank job, pick up a few extra picks and a young guy with some potential on a cheap two-year deal that has been buried on good teams so far (and who has already cleared waivers this year if they want to hang on until next year).
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 21, 2019 at 12:53 p.m.
Thread: The Return Of The Bern
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hanson493</b></div><div>so the wings do the leafs a favor... take on ceci, foooor? petan a 4th and a 7th? why? Most will agree ceci is already over paid and isnt that great. so why are they taking a serviceable asset from the wings for really not a whole lot?</div></div>

- Detroit is actively trying to tank this year.
- Bernier isn't a goalie to build around, but he's better than Cal Pickard, or whoever they want to call up. And his contract is up in a couple years anyway, he'll be 33, he's definitely not part of the futire. The should be getting rid of him one way or another anyway.
- Ceci is at least an NHL player. Even based on his play in Ottawa the last couple years he'd be the 3rd or 4th best player on Detroit's blue line, based on his numbers in TO he'd be #1. I wouldn't expect him to keep it up, but I'd expect him to be pretty much interchangeable with anyone in the top 4. It's also only for one year.
- Petan is a serviceable player, but will never get to play in Toronto. He's better suited to a top 6 role IMO. If they want to use him there, he'd fit in fine, if they want to tank as hard as possible while hanging onto an RFA with some potential, he's already cleared waivers this season.

Another route they could go down is taking on Johan Franzen's LTIR contract. But Detroit doesn't actually need that space right now so I don't know how much that would matter to them.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 17, 2019 at 7:13 a.m.
Thread: Minimal Trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Driedger18</b></div><div>I think Brown is gone for sure and then just comes down to space and demands. If Kapanen has to go then need to get a d man for sure. I'm on the deal Bracco side not because I don't like him but because we have incredible RW depth and he needs to play top 2 lines or he's not effective. He's got incredible value right now and could possibly, with other assets, net the Leafs a real good d man.</div></div>

I have an idea they'd rather give Bracco another year in the AHL anyway, same as they did with Kappy, Johnsson and Moore. Maybe they bring up Marchment instead it they need a fourth line winger because he's probably better suited to that role. Or Engvall. I think long run though, Bracco ends up on the 3rd line and Kapanen is gone... as long as there's a skill center on the 3rd (Kadri) I feel like Bracco can do some damage. Kapanen has so much speed but too often it looks like he doesn't know what to do with it. Almost like he skates faster than he can think.

Ultimately I think they all could make the Leafs at some point so I hate the idea of losing even one of them. As problems go, it's a good one to have. Extremely interested to see what Dubas does with this this summer.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 16, 2019 at 12:54 p.m.
Thread: Minimal Trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BigDog91</b></div><div>Brown is worth a 4th at most.
Ducks laugh at you and never pick up your call again. Also you do know that with LTIR u need to still be under the cap when season starts. So, for example I will not be able to sign marner till after the season starts. Also he will make more then 10 million.</div></div>

So take a 4th... his salary is now an obstacle. And it doesn't have to be to the Oilers, they just seem like the best fit to me. They desperately need wingers, he's played with McDavid before, he'd get the opportunity to succeed he's just not going to get here, and we know the Oilers have already tried to get him once.

Ducks aren't exactly in a position to laugh.

Actually you don't. This is exactly the same stunt the Leafs pulled with Horton and Lupul a couple years back. Horton we know is eligible for offseason LTIR, and Kesler can be dealt with in the ordinary way on the last day of training camp. <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq">https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq</a>

Marner *may* make more than 10M, but I'm not convinced. Kucherov makes $9.5M. Sure that's in a low tax state, but at the same time:
- Kucherov scores a ton of goals. Marner puts up assists like crazy, but goals get you more $$.
- Kucherov is at least the second-most important part of the Lightning, maybe even most important. Marner has at LEAST Matthews and Tavares ahead of him, maybe even behind Reilly since the Leaf's back end isn't as good as Tampa's.
- Florida has low tax, but in Toronto players can pack away far more in endorsement deals. And it's free of escrow. Not to mention the fact that players are paid in USD, which means more purchasing power in Canada. Monetarily it's a wash.
- Marner is local guy who presumably doesn't want to go anywhere else anyway.
- If at the end of the day they can't come to terms and someone decides to offer sheet, that's four 1st rounders and and extra $9M to spend. Leafs have all the leverage here.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 5, 2019 at 2:36 p.m.
Thread: Leafs 19-20 No Trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>blowing_the_zone</b></div><div>Well, this is just kinda the nature of the beast of a cap system, isn't? We're going to lose some guys we'd rather not in order to make room for the guys that we absolutley want to keep. The guys that we lose will continue on their career with other teams, and new guys will be given a chance to play with the leafs. I dunno. I kinda like that it works like this. In my mind Trevor Moore &gt; Brown. Will he ever get a fulltime roster spot with the leafs unless some space is made for him? Probably not. Is he a way cheaper option than Connor Brown. Most certainly. Do i want to see Brown get traded? Not really. But thems the breaks...</div></div>

Absolutely. I do think they need to keep it together for a bit longer if possible though, since there's not a ton ready to come up from the Marlies now. But long run I think Brown has to go and I have to be sad.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 5, 2019 at 2:17 p.m.
Thread: Leafs 19-20 No Trades
Realistically, trades need to be made. This is just a though exiercise. But here's the logic, such as it is:

- Sparks has been OK, but not spectacular. I don't think he gets much of a raise, but I do think they keep him around.
- Kapanen and Johnsson are producing a a little better than Connor Brown in his rookie season. Because of the cap crunch, I think they cut back on term to save space. Kapanen has been the better of the two--but he also has more NHL experience than Brown did when he signed, so I think that cuts against him. With Johnsson producing at a slightly lower pace but in what is truly his first year, I think the case can be made for identical 2-year deals.
- I think they bend on overall money for Marner but get more term back. Not basing that on any evidence, just an idea.

Note this leaves no room for spare players and is right against the cap. Frankly they need to trade Zaitsev for this next season. After that, with Marleau off the books, things get better. They may need to trade brown as well, unfortunately, but I'm willing to hear the Marner number before beating that drum too hard
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 26, 2018 at 2:27 p.m.
Thread: Tavares gets the *9-year-deal* from Van
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jbarre6</b></div><div>I’m still confused as to what is stopping him from signing a 1 year contract on July 1, and then on July 2nd signing an 8 year extension with that same team therefore giving him a 9 year contract...</div></div>

I'm a bit late to this party, but I actually just looked this up this morning. I had the same idea, that since a player can re-sign a year out from free agency you could sign the extension the moment the first one was inked. Seemed like a great idea, and also one that would have been done by now if it really was a thing. Sure enough:

Article 50.5 Team Payroll Range System; Lower Limit and Upper Limit; Payroll Room; Lower Limit and Upper Limit Accounting.
(f) Contract Extensions.
(iv) A Player who is party to a one-year SPC may not enter into an "extension"
of such SPC prior to January 1 of the League Year covered by such SPC.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 19, 2018 at 1:16 p.m.
Thread: 18-19 Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>I hear what you are saying and you're not wrong. However I will say in regards to Hainsey, he is still a stellar penalty killer and I think he'd be far more valuable on his natural left side on the bottom pairing. If I was GM, I'd look at making a move with Gardiner. He has pretty good value and I think would bring back some decent return, possibly a RHD in the perfect situation but likely just more young assets that can be used in other areas. Dermott can move up to 2nd pair and then if we get Myers or Tanev, you could move Hainsey to the left side of the 3rd pairing and then Carrack or Holl or that Russian guy could battle for the 3rd RHD spot.</div></div>

I wonder if Carrick and Gardiner could be packaged together. Carrick isn't a bad player, but he clearly doesn't have Babcock's trust so the loss isn't huge... if there's anyone else available they'll play ahead of him anyway. The problem is you wouldn't get much out of him by himself. Gardiner is a quite effective player, spectacularly memorable brain farts aside. But he's only got a year left, and with the depth at LHD now I don't think he'd be coming back. If they can get a good RHD back for the pair of them it might be worth a look.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 18, 2018 at 5:21 p.m.
Thread: 18-19 Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Like your thought, and it's necessary to have Horton on the opening roster so the Performance Bonuses can be paid this season. Clears the maximum cap space for 2019/20. Can't see Jersey doing that deal for in effect 1 year of Hainsey. And really the Leafs need Hainsey this year. Like Nylander at centre as you suggest.....Leafs gotta say if he's a long term fit there.</div></div>

Islanders. Not Jersey. Isles have nowhere near enough D signed next year (4 in the NHL and 5 in the minors) and had worse defense than the Leafs last season. It would be good for right now, and should get them through to next season for a big-time UFA defenseman. This season is going to be a crapshoot imo and whoever gets Carlson is going to regret it big time down the line. Of course, if they get a cup between now and then they won't care...

As far as the Leafs needing him, I'd be perfectly happy to keep him. He's a usable defenseman and great in the room. And good at mentoring the younger guys on the ice. I'm just afraid of Babcock burning him out the way we say this year. He was good at the start of the year but he got ridden so hard that he was really struggling by the end of the year... I'd rather have somebody younger in that kind of usage. We know Gardiner and Reilly play well together, and I don't think Zaitsev will be as bad as he was this year. I almost think Babs was pushing him the way he pushed Reilly the year before.

I figure Nylander is going to be OK there. He was reasonably decent when he got thrown off the deep end this year, and that was filling in for Matthews. In a role that essentially make him a Bozak replacement he should look like he's playing with his food. Probably wouldn't have to shelter him as much either.

Thanks for the contribution.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 18, 2018 at 5:07 p.m.
Thread: 18-19 Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>The Islanders wouldn't trade a 2nd pick by itself for Hainsey and Martin. The need isn't there for the Islanders, they may bring Martin in for a 5th, 6th or 7th, depending on how badly TO wanted to drop that contract but they don't want Hainsey period. He's too old and has only a couple years of playing left in him.

I agree with not going nuts in free agency, that always goes poorly.

Two other things here,

1) why not go a little higher on Nylander and get the 8th year? It'll provide more cost certainty and also wrap up all his prime years. (Prime years are 21-29, anyone who says otherwise isn't paying attention to stats, when you turn 30, everything hurts and you don't recover nearly as fast and you start losing steps. Not a good thing in the speed era we are currently in.)

2) there is still a big hole on RHD</div></div>

I'd be fine with a lower pick. I'd prefer a 2nd or 3rd but really whatever comes. I just want to clear the spots. I like Martin but I think he's past his usefulness on the Leafs, and Hainsey is an effective penalty killer but too old for the kind of hard usage he gets--he was stellar to start the year but really got ridden hard and put away wet... and by the end of the year it really showed. The one thing Marincin does well is penalty kill, if nobody else can fill that spot. Besides, at some point you've got to clear the log jam so you can funnel new prospects into the Marlies. I still think the Islanders could use him, based on the lack of defenders they have signed right now, the lack of many decent free agent D (basically De Haan and Carlson, both of whom are getting a good chunk of change this summer) and how horrible their defense was this year.

1. I was loosely basing it on the Pastrnak deal of 6.67x6y. I figure he's worth similar money and would want something like that but was shooting for an extra year. If they can get him for 7m x 8y, great, I'll take that deal all day long.

2. Admittedly it's still far from ideal. I'm just not a fan of the limited UFA selection this year--basically De Haan and Carlson--which means both will probably end up way overpaid. As far as trades go, unless something unexpectedly awesome comes up that changes the current picture, I'd rather see those happen in the season after they see how what they've got in the pipe is working. I feel like this D setup is already better for the lack of Polak and Hainsey. I don't mind having Hainsey as a 5/6 guy, but odds are if we keep him he'll just get ridden like a rented mule again and burnt out. Hence I'd rather have a younger guy in there. We know the Gardiner and Reilly play very well together, Dermott and Borgman (or Rosen, he looked great in the playoffs) certainly can hold down a spot, I really don't think Zaitsev is as bad as he looked this season--kinda wonder if Babs was challenging him the way he did with Reilly the year before--and Ozhiganov is admittedly a wild card. But I feel either Carrick or Rosen could step up if he's a bust.

IMO anyway. Thanks for the contribution.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 16, 2018 at 9:48 p.m.
Thread: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs AKA "There's Probably A Reason I'm Not A GM"
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Matthews34</b></div><div>I get it. I just have a hard time using who is at the helm of a franchise as the reason why they can easily get killed in a deal. I promise if Larsson was only going to cost that much he'd have been gone a long time ago. To get them thinking on that deal the pick should probably be our 1st. Even then it doesn't make a ton of sense when you factor in the direction of their team. I think you need a little more quality and a little less quantity in these deals. Respect the effort and ability to realize maybe the values aren't perfect though :)</div></div>

TBH I thought that the pick should be higher after I posted, but I decided to just leave it standing with a note at the end.
Anyway, your opinion is noted and filed for next time. I'm definitely having another go at this.

Cheers
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 16, 2018 at 9:44 p.m.
Thread: Let’s see??? Trade for Cap space It could work no?
My thoughts on this:

- Ryan for Alzner. Neither team really wants either player. The 1-for-1 swap itself might not be impossible but I really don't think you'd get a pick out of it.
- Lucic for Patches. I think a 1st round pick, especially this year, is too much--no matter how much they want out from under the Lucic deal. On top of that I really don't understand why you'd want him, Patches is a far better player. Personally I wouldn't give up more than a second and a fourth in different years. However, this is Chiarelli we're talking about so I wouldn't call it impossible or even unrealistic.
- Suter for Ryan. IMO, you're going to have to give up a pick somewhere to get Suter, considering he puts up as many or more points as a defenseman as Ryan does as a winger.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 16, 2018 at 9:26 p.m.
Thread: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs AKA "There's Probably A Reason I'm Not A GM"
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Matthews34</b></div><div>Sadly these are Leaf sided to the point that it just isn't remotely realistic. You aren't getting a top 4, young, RH, signed Pesce for a 6/7 D, a backup, and a 3rd. It's just insane.. Sorry lol. The Larsson deal is in the same situation heavy heavy underpayment.</div></div>

I'm not going to defend the Carolina trade (well, except for the remark about Carrick being a 6/7 D... I believe his ceiling is significantly higher than that, but I doubt he gets a shot playing for Babcock). Like I said to Clark the more I look at it the less I like what I did there, you're absolutely right. As far as Edmonton goes, again, see my reply to Clark. I don't think you're wrong about the value being off, purely on my estimation of all the players involved, but I don't think that makes this particular trade unrealistic. Bear in mind who's in charge in Edmonton, all three of those seem to be types of players that Chiarelli likes. So 3 roster players and a future. I can see them biting, the biggest obstacle IMO is the fact that they traded Taylor Hall for him.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 16, 2018 at 9:14 p.m.
Thread: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs AKA "There's Probably A Reason I'm Not A GM"
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>clark</b></div><div>
no, I don't think that should be the point at all. maybe constructing teams, some logical trades so there is so good discussion, some learning, but if the intend built a team unrealistically, why bother reading such posts.</div></div>

I'm not trying to build a team unrealistically... perhaps that wasn't the best choice of words. I should have said "To build our favorite team as well as we can believe being possible".

As far as possibility, I think we need to take into account the executives pulling the trigger as much as the values of the players involved. To that end, my suggested Edmonton trade... IMO the biggest obstacle is Taylor Hall exists and is amazing, and is forever linked to Adam Larsen. Otherwise, Chiarelli is known to like size and brute force. Martin. They need wingers. Leivo is not getting many chances in Toronto, but nearly every time he got in the lineup he had a positive impact. Also, he's big and feisty. Hainsey is a great locker room guy, a fairly effective d-man, but more importantly to Edmonton (based on precedent at least, see Russel) he passes the eye-test, no matter what the stats might say. Plus a pick. Three roster players of the type the management there seems to favour and a future... I can see them biting.

As far as Carolina goes, my logic (...) ran in a similar direction of exploiting panicked people, but I'm not going to bother defending that one. The more I look at it the less I like what I did and the less I believe it could happen. I'm not changing it though, that can wait until the next time.

As far as discussion goes, have at it. I've given you a starter, show me why I'm wrong instead of just saying that it is so. Whatever we pull together can help make the next attempt better.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 16, 2018 at 8:54 p.m.
Thread: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs AKA "There's Probably A Reason I'm Not A GM"
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Philvr</b></div><div>Firstly the Edmonton trade is a little off, in my opinion maybe you could put gardiner and timashov in their to make it a three way deal with Carolina. . Secondly why did you sign 3 UFA centers? because I think the leafs only need to sign one center (personally I think Riley Nash is the best option for 3rd line center).</div></div>

The idea behind the extra centers was basically for depth. Leafs have plenty of capable wingers available, and imo serviceable d-men as well if they were just pushed a little further down the depth chart... also it looks like that part of the team may even solve itself through the Marlies, just not right away, which is the issue. I may be in the minority here, but I think the big weakness is at center. Matthews and Kadri are good, but there's not much after that. Nylander is a maybe (or a probably, but still unproven). Aaltonen, as far as I knew, wasn't quite ready... I stand to be corrected on that. That's pretty much the logic, or lack thereof, that I was going on