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Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 18 at 1:25 p.m.
Thread: More ReTool
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>I’m more concerned about the Kyrou and Thomas iteration of the core. I’d consider those two and Parayko the core currently.

I think the most beneficial thing we could do would be to add a solid defenseman in the 24-27 age range. However in order to do that, we’re going to have to cut bait with either Krug or Faulk which I don’t think is a huge deal.

Ultimately I think the plan will be to middle out like this while contracts expire and then once they do make a large splash with a UFA defenseman if we can’t find one before. The issue with that is it’s rare those higher end caliber defenseman hit UFA status, because as we can all see, when you let one go you create a massive problem trying to stop gap or piece together the hole that’s left behind.

It’s definitely not a perfect plan, but there really is no perfect plan. I’d imagine we try and find a way to address a 2nd line center and move out a defenseman in hopes of adding another that can profile to be more of a two-way guy than we currently have.

I’d be shocked if our first pick in this draft was a forward, but there’s certainly an avenue where that could happen.

Truthfully I know it’s very unlikely, but I would move our 1st if we could get a guy like Harley out of Dallas.</div></div>

Large UFA splash like shea Theodore next summer would be amazing altho Vegas has done the tough moves to keep guys around in the past so I won’t hold my breath.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 18 at 12:23 p.m.
Thread: More ReTool
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>If our direction is to be worse next season than this I don't dislike any of the moves aside from the Leddy to Pittsburgh move.

However, as exciting as it is picking 10th vs 16th, I don't think it makes all too much of a difference once you look 5 years down the road. Don't get me wrong I would love for the Blues to trade up, but I don't think we're at the point where we can trade Binnington and not crumble. We may not make playoffs again next year, but after this year you have to expect the expectation would be to do so from the front office and from the players alone. Culture and belief in being able to win isn't something that's really too popular on here because you can't quantify it and compare. But I'd venture to guess if we made 2 or 3 moves to sell off pieces and finished towards the bottom of the league next year it would be crippling to the young core that we're building right now.</div></div>

To be honest there's so many different things going on with this team right now that I can't tell what direction is the right way to go. Hopefully Doug chooses one.

By my assessment though, rougher goaltending would've made this season the low-water mark. Now that might still happen this-coming year - with or without a Binner/Hofer combo (goaltending can be fickle). As exciting and promising as some of the younger guys are, they're not all here yet. And the veterans are just getting another year older, slower, etc. Wouldn't be the worst thing to be patient for another year and try to make some low-risk, high-reward moves to set up for the future.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 5 at 11:19 a.m.
Thread: Quietly the Worst Season Possible
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Dude, odds have nothing to do with anything. Odds are based on what people are betting. And people are idiot bettors. Analytics ain't really better as a predictive model.

My simple question was If you knew they'd make no trades and be sniffing the playoffs with 7 games left, and that Dean and Bolduc would be up and the other prospects would be killing it, would you take it happily?

As for your last paragraph, you're being fatalistic (which I get because Blues fans have been conditioned to be fatalistic ahead of time). Good things happened this season, but you're just not including them. Colt finally became a genuine #1 D. The goalies have been heroes. Thomas has struggled for points lately, but he'll still be PPG and he will still do it playing thw hardest competition of any forward in the league (which I actually just learned this morning). Torp has progressed. Leddy showed solid worth and consistency. No development other than Jakey is just not true.

I'm telling ya, the way Blues fans have reacted to this season, which has been nowhere near as bad or empty as they like to make it out to be, makes me laugh my ass clean off when everyone shouts for a teardown. As if they would last one week in a teardown.

Perspective, man.</div></div>

Your perspective is through blue-colored glasses my guy.

FWIW the public can shift betting lines but they weren't just made up by idiots. I wish they were because I would've made some decent coin if the public had them as a playoff team at any point during the season.

Empty season by the Show-Me standard. But it's fine, I don't let it ruin my day. I also don't want to be gaslit into thinking this mediocre stuff is actually good, because it ain't.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 5 at 10:55 a.m.
Thread: Quietly the Worst Season Possible
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Uhh they haven't been on pace to pick top 10 since like November. And they held a playoff spot for a month straight after the new year.

Heh. First of all, I only said they'd be up. Less than a year after going pro. And while it took them 20-30 pro games to get traction, I have no idea how that's extremely concerning. Again, they've gone from struggling in the A to shining in the A with tougher matchups to earning a call to showing some promise early in their NHL time in a matter of months. If that's extremely concerning, I don't know what to tell you. This is not microwave popcorn. Most players have learning curves at new levels. And you're ignoring the good progress.

But you didn't answer my simple question at all.</div></div>

Sportsbook odds for them to make playoffs on Jan 29th when they possessed a WC spot were 35%. On Feb 24th (after a 9-4 run) they were at 27%. They were 3 pts from picking 8th overall on March 9th, the day after the TDL.

What was your simple question? Was this NHL season a success because two prospects got called up and they "sniffed" a WC spot? No. I'm telling you I think it is possibly the worst outcome. No playoffs, no assets gained, no top 10 pick, no development other than 63's breakout.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 11:04 p.m.
Thread: Quietly the Worst Season Possible
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>I'm just going to ask you one question, and please be honest: If you knew they'd make no trades and be sniffing the playoffs with 7 games left, and that Dean and Bolduc would be up and the other prospects would be killing it, would you take it happily?</div></div>

I don’t think they were ever really on a playoff pt pace - they were on pace to pick top 10 for most of the season. And bolduc and dean had extremely concerning AHL seasons (that thankfully trended the right way) and haven’t gotten serious NHL ice time yet so I think you’re stretching the story. Honestly I’d be happier if they finished bottom 10 knowing what I knew as far back as the deadline or before. They didn’t have it this season.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 4:18 p.m.
Thread: Quietly the Worst Season Possible
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>xercuses</b></div><div>I wouldn’t say Hayes failed

Faulk has been hurt but was still light years better than Krug, don’t be disrespectful.

Bolduc will be full time next year, Dean may be but he’ll get time in the Ahl which he needs


Yes this year sucked but a lot of what your saying isn’t true</div></div>

Tbh the dmen have all taken turns being the terrible one / scapegoat with the exception of Parayko.

I guess my point was, wouldn't it be cool to have seen Vrana or Kapanen pop off and get us another 2nd round pick at the deadline? Or for Hayes to carry the 3rd line and help bring along some of the young guys? Or if the playoffs were out of reach and we sold Buchy for a nice haul and got to watch the younger guys get more involved? Or if they took advantage of the goaltending and went on a great run like NSH did to get into the POs? idk... anything fun to happen!? I think we're settling for way too much mediocre these days.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 3:03 p.m.
Thread: Quietly the Worst Season Possible
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HolyJumpin81</b></div><div>Well the stuff abt no deadline moves I think isnt important. Nobody wanted our guys for good reason, and it was a buyers market. Yeah Snuggerud is a bummer but hes 19 and hopefully will come in time. Also for the record, Blues hockey is never about stars carrying a team. Yes 18 and 25 are WAY too inconsistent, but theyre still young and hopefully it will improve. The issue is more that theres no offensive depth which youre right about, and honstley, the D is not as bad a people think. I love analytics but I promise you those nerds who say our D is bad don't watch Blues games. They have no help from the forwards in our defensive zone.

For me the frustrating part is the lack of offensive depth on both sides of the puck. I do see a light at the end of the tunnel. If they get even just good goaltending and can improve the O they could be competitive</div></div>

re: Thomas and Kyrou, I don't think there is anything wrong with them, but this re-tool season was a great chance for them really blast off. Instead we've got Kyrou slumping early and fans turning on him as the coach killer and Thomas - right when the narrative began that he's killing it as "the guy" - with 1 even strength point since March 1st. IMO they don't have the "still young" tag to lean on. They're making the most money and are in the prime age for production. What they've shown me this season is that Kyrou probably isn't going to be the 2nd best F on a contending team. Maybe Thomas can be the 1C on a deep enough team. But if these guys are going to be our best players, we need to find equal or better quality out of the prospects in the system to surround them. Not just a supporting cast.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 2:44 p.m.
Thread: Quietly the Worst Season Possible
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HolyJumpin81</b></div><div>At least theyre watchable. I agree with most of these but I feel some of these are far fetched.</div></div>

Which ones are farfetched? I know they're not all equally maddening. Like the Snuggerud news is a minor bummer. Most of this list is just thinking about if you could make the outcomes of this season worse, what would that look like? I think reality is looking pretty close to worst case.

We knew going into this season that the hopes were to make playoffs with the expectation that they would likely miss. Just a bummer that they're gonna /barely/ miss, and that they couldn't show a direction before the deadline (or that none of the UFA guys could show they had any value).
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 28 at 5:06 p.m.
Thread: Dvorsky
I assume Dvorsky is AHL eligible? I know he was when he left the SHL, not sure if playing OHL this season changed anything. I think he should develop in Springfield next year.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>I can't really get worked up about who is going to play 3C if there are literally no other significant roster changes being made besides just bringing in Snuggerud. If Armstrong insists on keeping (or is forced to keep) the team in neutral then you might as well just play Schenn there. You do what's best for Dvorsky's development at that point, because I think you'd be hard pressed to expect much more out of this roster than we've seen this year.

I also don't think that Bolduc, Dean and Snuggerud are going to play so well down the stretch this season as to make the Blues forgoe bringing in any forward help this summer. I don't think they can go into the season with all of those guys penciled in for a roster spot. Veterans are fine as long as they don't cost too much money for too long. That's what really makes Stephenson a non-starter for me.</div></div>

Doug with money to spend is a scary thought...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 11 at 1:54 p.m.
Thread: Actual ReTool
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aktobos71</b></div><div>Iam against buyout. Points wise he is more than decent. Just wait another year and trade him at 50 retention. Better trade both Faulk and krug in same year of their M-NTC. And everybody saying defence is a problem, Iam tired of hearing it. In my opinion offence is a bigger problem check shots stats, and few teams who above blues in standings have worse GA but their GF helped him negate this problem.</div></div>

I just don't see the trade market for Krug but no doubt trading him at 50% is an easier solution than the lengthy buyout. Maybe after another year is gone and the term is less of an issue, but I'd rather move on ASAP and try to find a better all-around dman to plug into the top4.

Plenty of blame to go around and it is definitely a nuanced topic. Effective defensemen spend less time defending and improve the transition game which can make it easier on forwards to generate more offense. Effective forwards backcheck responsibly and prevent odd man rushes by being responsible on the puck. When the team doesn't play as a five man unit, hard to place the blame on either group. But once you have enough data to look at, I'd say it's the Blues' inability to get out of their zone that causes the most problems. Poor puck decisions, lack of confidence to make the best play, costly turnovers. They spend way too much time in their zone and it ruins a lot of shifts and chances to gain momentum.

The bigger point, though, is that the forward group is already going to change over the next couple of years with the younger guys coming in and hopefully moving some of the veteran guys down the lineup. The defense is going to remain the same mediocre group unless something drastic is done.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 29 at 5:12 p.m.
Thread: BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Disgusting to say that Dunn was future Krug and we needed established Krug more - That's not what I was saying. What I was saying was Dunn at the time could not be trusted whatsoever in the defensive zone. They tried it, it was a mess. We needed a PPQB once Pietrangelo left - another mistake that I believe is very heavily tied to trading for Faulk, and for some reason not giving Pietrangelo a NMC. We were in a competitive window and you should look at the production and numbers Krug has put up, he's a top end point producer, or at least was until last year.

They did the same thing with Dunn, he'd try 10 stretch passes and create tons of offense, but got scapegoated because one would lead to a turnover. - This is the result of being in a competitive window and being a team that is not in a competitive window. We have been outside of a competitive window for probably one season. I would argue at the start of last season we too were believed to be in a competitive window. They make a mistake and they were benched, it's a team that's trying to compete at a high level. Detroit had the ability to allow him to grow. Seattle had the ability to let Dunn grow. Their results were much better than the standard they played to last season.

in regards to your final paragraph. I'm not sure why you are quick to write off or champion a prospect after a half a season in their D+1. Lets also just completely overlook the fact that out of that Stenberg as a May birthday 18 year old just had an outstanding WJC on a silver medal team whereas, aside from Brindley, none of those players were selected. Yes USA was stacked but Sweden was also a very high end team. Stenberg was also drafted off of the back of a fantastic Hlinka Gretzky Cup where i believe he was the captain. You are complaining about getting a pretty high end prospect as opposed to getting a different good looking prospect. Potential is the biggest fallacy around. How many guys fully tap into their potential? And how many prospects are tap into a potential that isn't perceived at a certain time? There's a very distinct advantage to drafting younger players in the class, they are many months behind in their development compared to other members of the class. I don't know about you but I'll take the guy that has proven himself multiple times against peers that's behind in development due to age at pick 25. If your standoff from him is he isn't 6'2 or playing in a league you are more familiar with I don't know what to tell you.</div></div>

Alright I should’ve left out the part out about the prospects. You’re approaching this with way too level of a head and I was steaming red enough to rant about it on here lol. Stenberg has plenty of runway, so does Lindstein. I just wouldn’t have complained if they went something like Musty and Gulyayev who I think have much more talent to work with if they can put it all together. My real gripe is with the later picks but that’s always a crap shoot.

I understand your argument about how you can’t have long leashes with players when the team is competitive but I just don’t see how the guys he brought in were the correct answers. He fumbled the defense and it forced him to retool quicker than he should have. Now I worry that his retool isn’t going to work and we’ll stay stuck in mediocrity. But hey this is what we’ve got so let’s see how it goes.