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Alfie11

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Forum: NHLNov. 14, 2022 at 9:03 a.m.
Thread: Betting Discussion Thread #1 - A New Hope
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Anybody noticed any trends so far this year? Feel free to share the love lol

I've noticed one big one, and it's that the Dallas Stars top line is MONEY. A 3-leg parlay consisting of Jason Robertson point + Roope Hintz point + Joe Pavelski point typically gives odds around +190 to +200, meaning you need it to hit slightly more than once every three games to be profitable. It's hit 9 times in 15 games so far this year, and I'm personally 3/3 on betting it. If you're not as big of a fan of Pavelski and prefer to just bet the kids, a 2-leg parlay consisting of Jason Robertson point + Roope Hintz point typically pays out around +115 I think (I've never actually bet this personally, but I vaguely remember seeing this number show up temporarily when building the 3-leg parlay lol, and I think it makes sense, because Pavelski isn't + money to get a point individually), meaning you need this to only hit slightly less than once every two games to be profitable. It's hit 12 times in 15 games lol.

Also, the opposing team to win by 3 or more has hit 3/5 times when Felix Sandstrom is in net (he has one win, and one loss by a single goal). The Flyers hot start is entirely because of Carter Hart lol. I don't think Sandstrom is a great goalie, but it's probably still too early to tell if this is a trend or not. If you don't want to go -2.5 for the opponent, then at least it might give you a little more confidence in betting on the opposing PL (also 3/5) or opposing ML (4/5).

Opposing team O3.5 goals has hit in:
9/11 starts for Gibson (only one needing an empty netter, but those count too)
5/7 starts for Merzlikins (and he gave up 3 goals in each of the other 2 games lol)
4/6 starts for Nedeljkovic
6/10 starts for Campbell
1/1 starts for Murray (lol)
7/10 starts for Demko
1/1 starts for Daccord (lol)
3/3 starts for Greiss (one needing an empty netter)

Game total O6.5 has hit in:
8/10 starts for Campbell
5/6 starts for Petersen</div></div>

Alot of effort put into this so nice work. I’ll add a few dimes to extend the list;

Karlssons point over is usually 0.5 or which has been pretty free; usually just parlay that with who you feel safe on in the same game (maybe it’s the over or the money line). Compared to other plays like McDavid or Kaprizov their overs are 1.5 which is far harder to hit. Last night didn’t know who would win in the Sharks game so just went in Karlsson 0.5 points and Kaprizov over 0.5 assists.

Also <strong><a href="https://www.statmuse.com/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">StatMuse</a></strong> is a pretty awesome site. To continue - Kaprizov historically versus the Sharks (per StatMuse) had put up 8 points in 11 games; which isn’t outstanding but it’s fair. So why did I bet Kaprizov? On StatMuse, game by game, Kaprizov has trended where; EVERYGAME Kaprizov has been pointless against the Sharks, his next game against the Sharks he records ATLEAST one point. So last game before Sunday against SJS he had 0 points. And Sunday? He got a point. The trend continues.


Others just like Alfie said with JRob, Pavs, Hintz - Boston has been pretty safe and too add with the “Perfection” line. I tend to bet on the goat Bergeron first, followed by Pasta, and Marchand finally.
Bergeron just simply tends to have less aggressive lines than Pasta. Often overs 1.5points or sometimes 4.5 on shots I’ve seen for Pasta. Kaprizov and Meier tend to get similarly aggressive lines. Meier tends to over 4.5 shots a lot 12/17 games this year (some games he’s hit 9 or 8 shots). Kaprizov has 5 games for comparison over 4.5 shots which isn’t great and Pasta has 11/16 which IS great.

It’s harder to bet on MIN/ KK97 due to Minnys slow start and the Sharks are just bad but Karlsson has been historic - his goals have started to slow down but his lines are fair. Meier isn’t as red hot but still producing and shooting. And Boston has just been shot out of a cannon I regret not betting on them more.

McDavid anytime goal has been decent to bet on as well with how much he’s going for the net now.
Forum: NHLNov. 4, 2022 at 8:27 p.m.
Thread: 2022-23 NHL Season Discussion Thread #4: Just Keefe Drowning
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>Kotkaniemi should have to answer the bell to whoever challenges him after he gets out of the box. That was a cheap shot

<div class="tweet"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="in" dir="ltr">Kotkaniemi, gloves on, punching Dahlin in the face <a href="https://t.co/WWasSt2XR5" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/WWasSt2XR5</a></p>— toronto maple scumbags (@mostlyleafies) <a href="https://twitter.com/mostlyleafies/status/1588677657671380992?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">November 4, 2022</a></blockquote>

</div></div></div>

Obviously I am a Sabres fan but I think that Dahlin shot after the whistle, which he has already done a couple minutes before. So I don't think that this was unwarranted. I think Dahls was trying to get something started, which he did...idk why we got a penalty for that play though...🙄
Forum: NHLNov. 2, 2022 at 11:51 a.m.
Thread: 2022-23 NHL Season Discussion Thread #4: Just Keefe Drowning
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Oh damn, didn’t even realize I was dogpiling lol, I’ve heard bad things but I’ve tried to stay away from the Leah Hextall discourse for the most part because I don’t typically watch the games she would broadcast. But that shootout was horrendous. It’s obviously not female hate because Cassie was excellent (I miss her covering the Flames), but the colour person shouldn’t have to summarize what just happened because the play by play person said LITERALLY nothing. Dead air is killer, and if the play by play commentator isn’t commentating the play live as it happens, then what are they even there for lol</div></div>

100%, I only mention the female aspect as Hextall has obviously gotten a ton of nasty messages from degenerates; and a lot of it is because she’s just a girl and some losers are well losers. But there’s a lot of lack of criticism or lack of acceptance of criticism because of this.

But Pounder, Campbell Pascal, Leila (something can’t remember), do not get much criticism because I actually enjoy their casts. Or Kate Berness and the countless other quality female media workers that I’ve grown watching.

Hextall is not good. She’s often covering Sharks games and she does ESPN. You’re comment is just.

A lot of dead air, and not good dead air like some of the great baseball commentators who let the moment speak. She also as you mention often fails to play by play whatsoever. And I feel like most times watching some of the Sharks game but hearing her; there’s two different stories. You have the GAME, then you have whatever Hextall is calling (often wrong names or wrong everything lol, not lying I’ve heard a ton of bad information on her casts).
Forum: NHLOct. 28, 2022 at 1:22 p.m.
Thread: 2022-23 NHL Season Discussion Thread #3: The Toronto Maple LTI's
To add my two cents to this Karlsson-Makar comparison - I've been following hockey closely since about 2012 or so. During these 10 years in my opinion prime Karlsson has been the best D-man in the world. Dude was PPG during time when teams scored up to 50 goals less than they do this year. As a D-man.

No D in modern hockey would ever be able to compete for Art Ross, but prime EK in 2015-16 gave a run for people's money at that, finishing 4th in points, tied with Thornton, at 82 points. For the sake of comparison, Josi's 96 point last year wasn't enough for Top10 this year, and Makar's 86 was barely enough to tie for 20th.

Makar is probably the best D-man in the league right now, and it's still early days, but as of now I would call prime Karlsson better. If he was in that form now, I think he'd be easily challenging for 100, maybe 110 points per year. Sadly, injuries and aging have taken the best sharpness out of his ability these days.