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Dr_Invictus

Dr_Invictus
Member Since
May 18, 2017
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Calgary Flames
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 7 at 12:19 a.m.
Thread: CGY Blockbuster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>I completely agree with that from Calgary’s perspective.

But from every other team (including jersey’s).

-34 year old goalie, lowers value
-full NMC, lowers value
-6 million dollar contract, lowers value
-has been bad imo in 20-21 and 22-23.

Any jersey fans making offers for Markstrom should up their offers if they want to indicate a realistic price as a buyer.

But any Calgary fan selling Markstrom need to seriously lower the asks if they’re the ones trying to initiate the process.

And those 2 aspects are so far apart that I’d be shocked if Markstrom was traded, especially if Calgary refuses to retain</div></div>

I think last year was his truly only BAD season. Other years, and even the start of this season, one could single out our defensive play. But last year he let 11 goals in on the first shot. It was the worst case of the yips I had ever seen. Inexplicable...truly bad. Whereas, the start of this year was all on our defense: terrible give aways in the slot, two on ones...just bad. If you look at his numbers after game 15, they are Vezina calibre. Could he have another bad year? Maybe. But his record is consistent for expected goals against.

He is no Kipprusoff, but could win the right team a cup. He's also the best goalie available for the right price. Vegas went after Hill because they saw that San Jose D coverage exposed him too much on lateral slot passes. They addressed it when they acquired him and he ran with it. Just like Dubnyk when he went to Minnesota. It's probably more about the goalie matching your D structure than anything.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 6 at 11:01 p.m.
Thread: CGY Blockbuster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Yes. Markstrom has been much better than Vanacek this year.

Vanacek was much better last year. Who’s to say the ever inconsistent Markstrom doesn’t fall off in jersey.

Goalies have rarely performed well into their mid 30s.

The thing is, trading for Markstrom won’t go back in time and change the season so far. And I can name probably 15 or so goalies I’d rather have going forward</div></div>

Markstrom has had one bad year since becoming a starter in 2016. During that span he has a .911 sv% and 2.66 GAA. That's including the abysmal season last year. He has actually been very consistent his entire career. Goalies decline like any other player. The key difference is that most NHl goalies don't have a starting position until they are 27. That's a lot different than a forward or even defenseman. Projections revolve around decking stats regardless of the league or competition. The age production curve is actually quite asymptotic until 36 when you see 6bps drops in SV % each year. That's not to mention the small sample size of goal tenders in general (only 64 -78 play). In any case Vanacek has never been vastly better despite his younger bias.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 6 at 8:17 p.m.
Thread: CGY Blockbuster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Lindholm is a center.

I completely agree. The flames should keep Markstrom. I would not want NJD to go anywhere near a 34 year old goalie with expensive term.</div></div>

...A defensive center having a statistically poor year. It's a apt litmus test for the market. Conversely, Hanifin is a top pairing LD on pace for 50pts who is only 26. Sure, he isn't a right shot RD, but he fits the mould for more teams. Conroy set a precedent and will try and drive the market up as much as possible.

NJ needs a goalie. 34 or not. The team is too deep and talented to be playing this poorly. Just 2pts separates Calgary and NJ. Other than in net, and perhaps a shutdown damn, NJ is better across the whole roster. Injuries or not, that's the difference.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 6 at 3:51 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 6 at 3:11 p.m.
Thread: Sabres atDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>I'm on the side that Calgary should full rebuild and eventually sell Andersson. I know that's not a thing ownership wants. I just feel he's going to be expensive and on the wrong side of 30 by the time this team is a contender. But moving him now shouldn't be a thing, next season or deadline.</div></div>

I agree. They need to draft some elite talent and there is only one way to do that. Moving Anderson to Buffalo, Dallas, Ottawa, or Salt Lake 😉 eventually makes sense IMO. They have the assets to pay and the need.

I'm not hopeful ownership will change their stance on the rebuild. It will end up being a forced retool like last time. At least Conroy acknowledges some form of asset management is required because drafting high isn't enough. You need to have shrewd roster building to create a supporting cast. Look at Vancouver and Colorado: both teams starting to rebuild at the same time. Colorado, however, sold off Duchene and other players to get depth while Vancouver immediately signed and traded for players past their primes. Within 5 years , the GF/ GA differential was over 250 for Colorado. It's only now Vancouver is starting to emerge from their rebuild.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 5 at 11:26 p.m.
Thread: Trade Deadline - New Czechmates
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Celtics21</b></div><div>I will suggest based on your feedback on every Lindholm deal I saw during discussions that this is more after the fact rationalization to pacify yourself rather than the truth.

Its OK. It’s going to happen on the Hanifin deal as well.

I saw multiple fans calling Kuzmenko a negative contract and only one who really focused on Hunter pre deal (props to Ledge &amp;). I think it was a good deal for Lindholm. I am curious how Hunter adjusts to the AHL, because the best player on Kitchener last year (Pinielli) has 8 points in like 40 games at Ontario. He’s performed much better than expected as an overage prospect in the OHL to date and looks like a very good 3rd round pick.</div></div>

Most of my deals for Lindholm prioritized a center prospect and a 1st, like Lindholm to Seattle for Wennberg, a 1st, and OFM. To be honest, I didn't think Van would part with Hunter Brzustewicz. I thought it would be Raty considering the lack of center depth in Calgary's system.

I also didn't want Kuzmenko given that he is another winger, and a cap dump; but, c'est la vie....Calgary can always trade him elsewhere if he improves. If not, It only a year and they aren't contending next year either. There are too many holes to fill in the roster and the farm to be anything but mediocre again. But that's what you get when you draft as poorly as the Flames have. Fun fact, the Bruins actually have the same amount of top-10 picks as the Flames since 1992, but 72 more playoff wins in that span. I'm shocked Todd Button still has a job. If it wasn't for Fox and Gaudreau, Calgary would rank a lot lower in draft wins.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 5 at 3:12 p.m.
Thread: Trade Deadline - New Czechmates
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Celtics21</b></div><div>If fans were valuing Coronato or Wolf as late 2nd round picks, you’d speak up.

With the failure rate of prospects, I think your position.on your plethora of prospects is naive. Lysell likely gets significant playing time in Calgary if he was traded there. Watch him this year if you’d like to see what he’s become

Zadarov and Lindholm went for exactly what their market was and it’s for considerably less than any of the packages that you have tossed out there.

I will acknowledge that once Hanifin is traded, he may view that as a more viable long term place to stay vs Calgary, but he is just months away from FA and his hometown team has opportunity, interest, and cap space plus they are just frankly a better team right now.

Boston shouldn’t trade their 3 NHL ready prospects if they are being valued below a late first in a bad draft.</div></div>

Lindholm went for more than I had proposed, which was a 1st, a blue chip prospect and whatever salary dump that came back. The 4th/3rd and Joni Jurmo are toss-ins above that rate. Hunter Brzustewicz, the 2024 first-round pick and kuzmenko were exactly the return expected. Conversely, Zadorov's return wasn't as good, but Conroy's priority was not retaining salary and moving him before it became a distraction to the team. Hanifin is having a great year (as opposed to Lindholm) and is younger. It's not unreasonable to expect a return in line with Lindholm's: 1st, bluechip prospect, and whatever salary needs to come back. Lysell's junior numbers are close to Hunter Brzustewicz's, except the latter is an RD and 3rd in OHL scoring. If you look at the previous award winners of OHL scoring for d-men most went on the be good NHL players (Rasmus Anderson, Ryan Ellis, Dougie Hamilton, Evan Bouchard.... I'll ignore Deangelo but he is there too). In short, Calgary will trade for the best package, and this could easily be beaten by other teams who have draft capital and depth at the positions they need.

I'm well aware of why the AHL is the farm system: many prospects who excel in the AHL don't in the NHL (Matt Phillips was a leading scorer in the AHL and struggled this year). Of all our top prospects, only Wolf and Hunter Brzustewicz aren't wingers:

Honzek- LW
Zary -LW/C.
Pelletier - LW
Coronato -RW
Bell -LW/RW
Pospisil -RW
Suniev - LW/RW

There isn't a ton of wingers spots on our roster and we only have two natural centers playing right now at the NHL level.

Regardless of the probabilities of any player being a success at the NHL level, the distribution of the prospect pool is what it is: Calgary has more wingers on their NHL roster and in the system than any other position. Natural Centers and Defense is lacking in our system. Calgary also isn't in a position to buy a rental or contend for the cup, so your point about including wolf or Coronato in a deal is moot. If we were AZ, Buffalo, Ottawa or NJ and had the chance to take a run at the cup, then a rental would make sense. They have the prospect depth to make those moves without it severely impacting them down the road. Calgary doesn't. Boston doesn't either, which is why you are overvaluing bruin's prospects in comparison to other teams comparable prospects. Just because they are more critical to your team doesn't mean they are better than a prospect on another team with a deep farm system.