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Fignn

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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 7, 2019 at 10:29 a.m.
Thread: To Sign or Not to Sign Thoughts
4 years is probably the one term the Leafs will put their foot down on and not agree to for Marner. That same number on a 3yr term probably works, tho.

It sounds like Kapanen and Johnsson are in line to get squeezed. They will be this season's version of Hyman and Brown. Getting both below $3m on even a 1yr extension is probably a win.

I agree that Sparks and Ozzie shouldn't get that much. They're both under $1m for me otherwise sign veteran replacements for each. Not sure if the leafs would agree with that philosophyw but makes sense to me.

Gardiner was gone this offseason regardless of Muzzin. They would need to move out major contracts for him to stay and I think everyone agrees that wouldn't be worth it. I like him...think he's a great 2LD...but he'll almost certainly be a cap casualty

I'd lean less towards a Pirri signing and more towards a vet that can play 4C . I'd rather keep Gauthier as a healthy scratch then enter the season with him as Plan A for 4C. Kruger maybe? If there's a vet still looking for a contract a few weeks into July that will take close to $1m I'd take him over Gauthier.

I think Trevor Moore makes the roster next year as does Rosen. Both were given 1-way contracts which usually means they will either earn a starting job or be a healthy scratch to start the season. Their $750k contracts are good assets for us. Maybe Bracco fights for a spot at camp at too if Brown is moved out.

<a href="/users/Fignn" target="_blank">@Fignn</a> … bonuses for guys like Liljegren next year would still need to be earned and, if they are, can get pushed to the following year's cap if necessary. It's only $400k I think max.

If Zaitsev can be traded without a sweetener being too sweet...it'll probably be the move of the offseason for Dubas

I wouldn't be surprised to see a vet or two signed to Professional Tryouts (Moulson maybe)...and then let them compete in camp with some marlies for bottom line wings
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 6, 2019 at 5:14 p.m.
Thread: How is this gonna work
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonesryan</b></div><div>I would say Zaitsev is a pure cap dump, but he is a cap savings that the Leafs will have to add into a deal to sell. If he's put in the right situation as an offensive guy and a PP running guy he'd have more value.
But I don't think the Leafs will have much interest in Gostisbehere. Just because he's a lefty, next year is already gonna be lefty heavy with Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott and probably Rosén. They'll need a righty if they move Zaitsev.
Also, a better way to make this work is that Marner isn't getting $11.2M as you have. He can sit there and say he's as valuable as Matthews all he wants but he isn't. Matthews plays a premier position and is franchise centre. Most Marner gets is $10.5M on a long term deal. I wouldn't be shocked to see the number slightly under $10M for about a 6 year deal though. Every penny helps and they can save cap that way until other deals come off the books and players are moved</div></div>

Marner &gt; Matthews. Austin goal suck Matthews is Ovie, Mitch all world talent Marner is Crosby.

Plus Marner is Canadian, 'nuff said.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 5, 2019 at 10:12 p.m.
Thread: offer sheet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mcoach69</b></div><div>yes but there @ 71.9M with 15 players signed so they have about 15M left to sign 7 players</div></div>

Oh I'm certainly not saying it's going to be easy. By my account, I am assuming Gauthier, Moore, Rosen and Holl... and possibly Bracco make the team in some fashion (either starting roster or healthy scratch)...

1. Matthews: $11,634,000
2. Tavares: $11,000,000
3. Nylander: $6,962,366
4. Marleau: $6,250,000
5. Kadri: $4,500,000
6. Hyman: $2,250,000
7. Brown: $2,100,000
7. Moore: $775,000
8. Bracco: $842,500
9. Gauthier: $675,000
10. Rielly: $5,000,000
11. Muzzin: $4,000,000
12. Dermott: $863,333
13. Zaitsev: $4,500,000
14. Rosen: $750,000
15. Holl: $675,000
16. Andersen: $5,000,000

Total AAV: 65,677,199
Kessel: $1,200,000

Projected cap: $83m
Space remaining: $16,122,801

Contracts needed: 7 (assuming 23 man roster)
Avg available per contract: $2,303,258

Let's say marner gets $10m on whatever term gets him $10m. Now they have just over a million left, on average, to sign 6 more guys. If Kapanen and Johnsson take up $5m AAV combined (this may be low)...we're now looking at not having enough money to give league minimum to the remaining 4 guys.

So something has to give. Even if Marner takes up $9m AAV instead, that leaves an average of $530,700 to sign 4 more guys which is below league min.

Leafs will likely try and move Zaitsev since his $4.5m can be more efficiently spread out. But if they can't move him, they essentially need to trade Brown for 3 guys making $700k (and/or trade him for a pick and replace him in the lineup with 3 guys making a total of $2.1m)
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 5, 2019 at 1:16 p.m.
Thread: Matthews deal is imminent - Bob Mackenzie
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>I have had mats at 11-11.34 for a year now... I got the term wrong. Sooooo Idk what you are talking about</div></div>

How about almost every thread you've been on. Here's a recent one to job your memory:
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/195121&amp;pid=721903">https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/195121&amp;pid=721903</a>

Look...the ranges we saw on this site were all reasonable...low or high arguments could all be made easily....but now that we're looking at $11.5/5yrs on Matthews you still think high projections on Marner are ridiculous. I don't see how marner would take anything less than $8m on a 3yr bridge...but he's probably close or over $10m on a 5yr deal
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 1, 2019 at 1:03 p.m.
Thread: Match Matthews Max Contract
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Someone just posted a Arizona team with Matthew and even Arizona has trouble with cap now and in the future. I think that is big concern for any team...cap space. Take Colorado they have Rantanen to sign and you could argue he has a better year than Matthews or Marner. I can see Matthews being in no hurry to sign, he should explore his options.
But you are correct, the Leafs have a tipping point. But so does Matthews. For his long term wealth...he might be better to stay with the Leafs at a reduced pay...and promote his brand in a major city on a very good team, and then explore further free agency in five years...maybe to New York. Apparently Sid Crosby's net work is 150m....all this on his paltry 8.7m salary. Staying with a good team...and multiple Cup winner has its benefits as a legacy and for other commercial values.</div></div>

And Marner will always be in the shadow of Matthews. If he signed with a team that had no face, then he could be the face of the team as well in a decent sized city team like Florida, New Jersey, or New York.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 1, 2019 at 12:27 p.m.
Thread: Match Matthews Max Contract
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NucksFanForLife</b></div><div>16.6...... at which point you don't match if Matthews says yes and turn around and sign Duchene, Panarin, Karlsson, or Stone. One of those and four firsts for Matthews is a nice package IMO. The big teams who would use offer sheets on the Leafs are Carolina, Buffalo, and Colorado. They're all bubble teams who would immediately be pushed into contention with one of Matthews or Marner. I can't see Matthews signing an offer sheet. He'll be extended by then anyways. Now Marner is a different issue. Dubas likely wants him signed for 8.5-9.5 million, and the aforementioned teams can afford to offer Marner 10-11.5.</div></div>

Someone just posted a Arizona team with Matthew and even Arizona has trouble with cap now and in the future. I think that is big concern for any team...cap space. Take Colorado they have Rantanen to sign and you could argue he has a better year than Matthews or Marner. I can see Matthews being in no hurry to sign, he should explore his options.
But you are correct, the Leafs have a tipping point. But so does Matthews. For his long term wealth...he might be better to stay with the Leafs at a reduced pay...and promote his brand in a major city on a very good team, and then explore further free agency in five years...maybe to New York. Apparently Sid Crosby's net work is 150m....all this on his paltry 8.7m salary. Staying with a good team...and multiple Cup winner has its benefits as a legacy and for other commercial values.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 1, 2019 at 12:17 p.m.
Thread: Match Matthews Max Contract
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Leafs wouldn't match....and depending on the team, maybe Matthews doesn't even sign the offer sheet. Just would like to see some names to these teams that would overpay for for RFAs and see how they fit into their cap now and in the future.</div></div>

16.6...... at which point you don't match if Matthews says yes and turn around and sign Duchene, Panarin, Karlsson, or Stone. One of those and four firsts for Matthews is a nice package IMO. The big teams who would use offer sheets on the Leafs are Carolina, Buffalo, and Colorado. They're all bubble teams who would immediately be pushed into contention with one of Matthews or Marner. I can't see Matthews signing an offer sheet. He'll be extended by then anyways. Now Marner is a different issue. Dubas likely wants him signed for 8.5-9.5 million, and the aforementioned teams can afford to offer Marner 10-11.5.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2019 at 10:58 a.m.
Thread: Next Year with Muz
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Fignn</b></div><div>That’s the problem the numbers don’t tell you that he’s been playing with Mathews and Marner and Tavares easy to ride coat tails</div></div>

in the season prior to each of those players signing their new contracts

Lindholdm was paired with the staal brothers, or rask/skinner.
Mantha was usually paired with Larkin and sometimes Zetterberg/Nyquist
Kase played a lot with some combo of Henrique/Getzlaf/Rakell/Vermette


so it's not like those players were playing with trash. Still some really good players in there, not on the same level as AM/MM/JT but Eric Staal was a very good player at the time, and so was skinner. Larkin had a pretty good season last year (63 points), and is off to another good start this year.

So yes those are pretty good comps when you consider age, and especially when mantha had 87 points in 150 GP and kap is projected for 160 in 137 GP (similar to lindholm and kase). So something around lindholm/kase's cap hit % seems reasonable.

Also Andreas Johnsson is about 2 years older than kap. Age matters.