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HeinousFulcrum

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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 15, 2019 at 4:41 p.m.
Thread: Athletics Hypothetical Trades For Red Wings
No one is giving up an early 1st round pick for Trouba. The 3 beat writers that did the article for The Athletic (including the WPG beat writer) had Lindstrom, and the 35OA for Trouba, with a conditional 2nd if Trouba extends. They did say throw in Green retained to give WPG an asset back to fill the hole short term (especially with a top of the line F core, they are still SCF contenders).

Trouba isn't a 1D. He played sheltered minutes in WPG, and scored a bunch of the power play. He is an offensive defenceman. He's a bigger Brian Rafalski (who's metrics and numbers are very similar). WPG fans make him out to be more than the league does. He played 2nd line minutes in WPG (3rd in minutes/game last season for WPG dmen). WPG doesn't have to give him away, but the return from any team isn't going to be close to what the fans make him out to be.

If he had team control for multiple years, you'd end up getting more. Brandon Montour is a great example, he returned a late 1st and a B prospect, but had 2 years left on his current deal @ 3.3m, and is an RFA at the end. The pick that ANA will get will be between 27-31 (the better of either SJS or STL). What's the difference between 27 and 35? Especially if another 2nd round pick is involved, plus a similar level prospect. WPG needs picks badly, as they've traded away a bunch the last few seasons.

But Trouba is a UFA next season, and will cost 7.0+ on a 5-8 year deal. Very different value stream.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 2, 2018 at 3:06 p.m.
Thread: Pac Man
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HeinousFulcrum</b></div><div>This would all be contingent on him signing a reasonable extension; something similar to James Neals' contract.</div></div>

Yeah thanks to DonVito for that illuminating response. I wouldn't attach our 1st round pick regardless; if Pacioretty signed a deal like Neal, no more than 5 years and $6M or less per year, I would for sure trade Helm and Nyquist for him, and maybe throw in a 3rd round pick or something. But I think after being pretty underpaid on his last contract, he's going to be looking for something more in the $7M range, and I would be SHOCKED if Montreal traded him in-division, especially to a team like Detroit. No doubt Pacioretty is going to want to light Montreal up after what he's been put through, and I think if they can they're going to deal him to a Western conference team.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 31, 2018 at 2:01 p.m.
Thread: Detroit 2019-20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HeinousFulcrum</b></div><div>I do not see the Klefbom trade happening. I think the 3rd round pick is an overpayment, and I don't see Mike Green waving his NTC. </div></div>
Green's NTC turns into a 10 team no-trade at the 2019-20 trade deadline; if the Oilers are in a playoff spot, I think he would accept the deal with the idea of padding his stats playing with McDavid, in an effort to get a bigger deal the following offseason. As for the 3rd being an overpay, I disagree; Klefbom just turned 25 and is on a fantastic deal.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HeinousFulcrum</b></div><div>I would be okay with signing Skinner to a 6 year deal in the range of 6 million. </div></div>
I wouldn't hate that deal, I feel like it'd have to be more in the $7M range though. Pitching him $8M over 3 takes him to his age 30 season, and I would point to the deal James Neal just signed as a 30 year old (5 years, $5.75M). He'd be one of the focal points of Detroit's offense, which would pad his stats and improve his outlook for the next deal. With the cap increasing, he could be looking at something like $6.5 over 5 on his next deal; that'd be an average of just over $7M over 8 years, which is better than $6M over 6. That being said, there's obviously more security and less injury risk with your proposal.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 25, 2018 at 8:57 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 19, 2018 at 3:11 p.m.
Thread: idk, just dont let kenny decide what to do
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HeinousFulcrum</b></div><div>Care to elaborate on why? This is non-constructive criticism.
The Nyquist trade doesn't really make any sense from Detroit's perspective. Don't know enough about Fredrick really, but I don't think that is fair value.
Carolina would need to have a defenseman returned in that trade as getting two forwards for a defence doesn't seem very valuable from their perspective.</div></div>


Actually no Canes have more D than they have spots for them. They don’t need a d man back. But they are not moving Pesce. Faulk they will move.

Wings need to clear cap space, it would be great trade for them. Frederic is very good center prospect. Nyqvist is not a need for Boston. Only has 1 year left. And B’s don’t have the cap space.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 18, 2018 at 6:56 p.m.
Thread: Something a little different
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Goldorak</b></div><div>Isn't Detroit in need to sign Larkin? They have just under 3mil to sign him and you think he will get more than Mantha.

You noticed Lucic going to Vancouver for Eriksson right?
So its Gallagher and Benn for Eriksson, Yamamoto, Samorukov, Marody, 2019 1st, 2019 3rd and 2019 6th.
If any one of those assets become as good as Gallagher, which is a high possibility, it's a win.</div></div>

You do know what LTIR is right? That will give them another 4M to play with. As for making space, Im all for it! But then move a player like Glendening for an asset back. That way, DET signs Larkin, doesn't lose draft picks and only loses Glendening whose a 4th line player anyway.

Swapping Lucic for Erickson isn't much better. You're basically only saving 1 year of 6M at the end. Nice, but still you're also assuming this is even possible. Both guys have NMC which make the odds of a trade like this very very small.

Yeah prospects are nice but Gallagher is a sure thing. How often do players drafted, score 30 goals in a year while being a catalyst for their team? Not very good odds. Marody and Samorukov are nice but there is more chance they don't become anything more than 3-4th liners then they do of matching Gallagher. So assume Gallagher would fetch a 1st and a prospect like Yamamoto in return, if sold by himself. Why would the Habs en-debt themselves by taking Lucic/Eriksson only to get two decent but not sure thing prospects and a pick back? They're also losing Benn at 50% which would itself return a draft pick at the TDL too... IMHO opinion, its not worth it. Habs are losing the best player in the deal and taking on all the financial risk. That's not how business works. At least not for those prospects. Puljujarvi on the other hand.....
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 18, 2018 at 6:01 p.m.
Thread: Trade for Dante Fabbro
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shifttee</b></div><div>Have to disagree with you on both fronts,

Fabbro is one of the better defensive prospects league wide, AA and a 3rd is not enough

as fair as the fit for both teams? where does AA fit in Nashville?
is he gonna play on the wing?
is he bumping Bonino down to the 4C? Is he the 4C?

if he is moving to the wing Nashville could get a better winger for Fabbro</div></div>


Moving to the wing? Athanasiou has played on the wing for most of his time in Detroit. Where he would play would depend a lot on how the Preds want to build their lines but Athanasiou would definitely provide them with another fast, high skill offensive player and unlike the Red Wings the Preds blue line could help to mask some of AA's defensive weaknesses.

Fabbro is definitely a very good prospect but he is just that, a prospect. While everyone expects he will turn into a Top 4 Dman in he NHL someday, there is no guarantees and unless the Preds let Ryan Ellis walk after this season (or more likely trade him) there is not a lot of room for a player like Fabbro on their blue line, and while it is nice to have reserves that can be called in in times of injury he is also an asset that can be used to improve other areas of the team right now.

If you prefer I would personally be fine to swap out Gustav Nyquist for Athanasiou or maybe even add them together (in that case it would definitely require the Wings taking something additional back in terms of a 2nd rd pick or another prospect).
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 16, 2018 at 6:07 p.m.
Thread: Well how much worse can it get
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>You miss the point of the exercise. The suggested transactions shave $6.8M off the payroll. Without that, you couldn't re-up Dylan Larkin for even $5.5M. Yes, Ho-Sang is a downgrade from Athanasiou, just as Greiss isn't an upgrade from Howard. In this position, teams/GM's don't get top dollar. They usually don't even get fair value.</div></div>

Yeah that's kind of where I was going. Trading for greiss isn't an upgrade but it's a bit less money for an extra year and since the young goalies we have are not getting here soon then why not. AA trade is really because I don't love th player. I think hosang has a bigger upside and I'm willing to move the better player now for a guy in the future.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 16, 2018 at 6:01 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 16, 2018 at 5:10 p.m.
Thread: Exploring Mantha Trade
As stated, it's never going to happen, but if you want to analyze it, here goes.

I don't think Mete is in the same range as Mantha. Mete is a small (smaller than Saar and Hronek) Dman, that while may be a good skater, only put up 7 points in 49 games last year with MTL (and no goals). That would make him a younger, smaller version of Jensen (who you included in the trade as well). If DET is going to trade him, Juulsen would be at the top of the list, along with a 1st rounder to get close to full value for a blossoming goal scorer.

Juulsen is going to be a 3-4 Dman (not a 1-2 from where he was drafted). And the pick will be a crapshoot. I think everyone has a pretty good idea where Mantha is going.

Also (as you mention), there is no talent in MTL on the D coming up (outside of Mete and Juulsen). They could never afford to trade anyone for Mantha.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 12, 2018 at 8:23 p.m.
Thread: Here's the Solution
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HeinousFulcrum</b></div><div>An interesting trade. Don't know enough about Pettersson to make a good judgment on this. Had to do a double take to make sure it wasn't Elias Pettersson, lol. Looking at his elite prospect profile, he has good size and played in the AHL last year. Is he more defense or offense?
Don't know if Abdelkader is someone Detroit wants to trade or if Anaheim will take his contract; It has a high AVG for the type of game he plays. You will also have to get him to waive his NTC, and I don't know if Anaheim would be a team he would be willing to go to.
Detroit has to make a move with around 4.2 million in cap space left to sign Larkin. I see Nyquist as the likely candidate currently, but Abdelkader is intriguing if he is willing to waive the NTC. Likely Abdelkader stays on until his Modified NTC kicks in for the 2019-20 season (If Detroit misses the playoffs or he is not a top 9 forward in terms of TOI).</div></div>

Pettersson played the last quarter of the season and was a very good defensive puck-mover. He's one year ahead of Larsson although the latter was a first-round pick (#27) and Pettersson was a second-rounder (#38). I think his offense is going to take some time to develop while Larsson's defensive ability is in question (San Diego had a couple of defensemen who were considered better). My trade assumes Abdelkader would accept the Ducks; I like him for Anaheim more than Nyquist due to the contract length and his known character strength. A lot of people have suggested trading for Nyquist but I don't like trading for guys in the last season of their contract. For every Evander Kane, there's a Milan Lucic.