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HughMann413

Member Since
Jun. 22, 2023
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Washington Capitals
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 21, 2023 at 6:20 p.m.
Thread: Nylander
Caps and Leafs fans on this site (and really every fan tbh) can't ever parse out the very different realities of what a player is actually "worth," how a generic NHL GM values certain roles, and what specific teams <em>will</em> do versus what they <em>should</em> do.

Objectively by any WAR-type stat Nylander is "worth" a whole lot, probably the amount of futures being offered here if not more. I don't really think any fan of any team would dispute that. The problem for the Leafs is that correctly or not, NHL GMs <strong>do not</strong> value scoring wingers in the last year of their deals that are about to get paid big money quite as highly. This is incredibly obvious from recent trades -- Fiala, DeBrincat (twice), Meier, Bertuzzi, Stone, even some centers like PLD and Eichel. The <strong>only</strong> player traded recently to get the type of return they are actually close to being "worth" is Tkachuk, an MVP caliber player on a different playing field than all the ones I just listed. NHL GM's probably are also very put off by what has been reported so far as Nylander's (justifiably) massive contract demands.

Finally, there are the team-specific things. Leafs fans need to understand that no matter what he "should" do, BMac has made it abundantly clear through media channels that he is not trading Wilson even for an upgrade in the form of Nylander. Obviously I do not follow Toronto media or rumors as closely, but I assume that the Leafs would like to get back some form of top NHL talent back in a Nylander deal and Caps fans need to understand that as well.

For all of these reasons, I don't really see any trade scenario that makes sense for both teams around Nylander (or Wilson for that matter), especially this one that doesn't really solve anyone's problems.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 21, 2023 at 1:40 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 17, 2023 at 9:36 a.m.
Thread: To cost an arm and aleg
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ClockReads2113</b></div><div><strong>Strome has put up better analytics at BOTH ends of the ice (expected goals for and expected goals against) than Lindholm not just last season but the last 3 seasons combined. Strome is better offensively and defensively. </strong>

There's lot of evidence out there that shows Lindholm gets offensively carried by his linemates, so his point total is inflated.

He's good, he's just not 1C good and shouldn't get a 1C price. Then paying that price to sign him to a long term contract he'll never live up to would be terrible.</div></div>

<a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20202021&amp;thruseason=20222023&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=oi&amp;rate=n&amp;p1=8478440&amp;p2=8477496&amp;loc=B&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Bolded is pure nonsense</a>

As for linemates, that is just silly. Like anyone playing with offensively gifted players their points totals will take a boost from playing with them but Gaudreau has only had 1 season where he didn't stand out like a sore thumb defensively. Tkachuk is great along the boards at both ends of the ice but Lindholm absolutely did most of the heavy lifting in their own end that season. Look at Bergeron, he didn't even crack 60 points this year and had 65 last year yet he is widely considered a top 10 center in the entire league.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2023 at 8:00 a.m.
Thread: Mantha
I read the description and agree. Could be any team with cap space, so I preface with...I'm just going off CHI's history because while I read CHI is a placeholder...it's a likely spot for a dump. Let's just see what it'll cost.

Josh Bailey is the recent comp. There are plenty before him, but recency matters too. JB cost a 2nd round pick to spend $2,333,333M over 2 years. Mantha will cost $6.5M. (assuming the buyout window is closed and can't be reopened with arb filing etc...)

25 points 64 games and 44 points in 74 games the year prior.
27 points in 67 games and 23 in 37 games the prior year. Extrapolated mean 46 points in 74 games.

Over 2 years pretty much the same.

I think this is why he's still with WAS and likely will stay there. I'd agree with the argument that a 28 year old Mantha with something to prove looking for another contract has more motivation than a 33 JB, but motivation and injury history don't link too much.

I'll admit I was previously willing to take the BOS 2025 2nd for Mantha. With how expensive dumps have been lately. I'm now thinking it'll costs (2) 2nds, but it could also be more because there are less teams to available with the cap space to afford to take him on.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 23, 2023 at 1:13 p.m.
Thread: First Post v2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HughMann413</b></div><div>They may have space, but with 8 UFAs and 3 RFAs that were regularly playing minutes last year, they have a lot of holes to fill. Agreed that the return in my scenario is a bit light for Toews. I had received a suggestion to give less in my first version of this roster. So I went with that for V2.</div></div>

Sure its a lot of guys to sign. But Byram is the only one that is looking at taking a sizable chunk. Besides Byram, they need a 6th D (2M max, probably someone around 1M), 5 bottom 6 guys, a 2C and 2LW. Newhook and Meyers (3-3.5M combined) takes care of 2 bottom 6 spots. Cogs is likely coming back around 1M. Last 2 bottom 6 spots will be around 2.5M combined.

So we are looking at around 12M to fill 3 spots (Byram, 2C, 2LW). At wing, I'm expecting them to wait out the market and give someone that misses out on the initial FA wave a small 1 year contract - much like they did with ERod last summer. Byram and ROR or a 2C around 5M on the trade market for futures makes the most sense and can fit without trading anyone off the current roster.

The only trade that makes sense from an Avs perspective for Toews to WSH is Kuzy (with retention) and additional assets from WSH. And that would require the Avs to miss out on several other options at 2C first.