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Reff

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Jan. 14, 2020
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Montreal Canadiens
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Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 20, 2023 at 9:32 a.m.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsAug. 5, 2022 at 11:21 a.m.
Thread: Serious Offer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Reff</b></div><div>This. Montreal's media is terrible with their coverage of the team.

As a Habs fan, the way I see it is we should not trade for Dubois this year or even next year, unless we can move a bad contract (but it won't happen). If Dubois really hits the FA market in 2024 as he said, and if he really wants to play in Montreal, then sign him as a UFA. Period. This will accelerate the rebuild and Dach or Dvorak will become available as trade bait to acquire a good RHD.

But before doing this, we'll go through 2 drafts, and there are good chances we draft a Top C in one of those 2. Or maybe Dach will finally explode and reach his potential as 2nd C. There are many maybes along the way, so we might not even need PLD.</div></div>

Agreed. Winnipeg has no reason or incentive to lower their asking price for Dubois now. They control him for 2 more years, so panicking and taking below market value now just makes no rational sense. There just isn't a logical reason for Winnipeg to do so.

Likewise as you said for Montreal, they shouldn't be giving up the pieces required to obtain Dubois. They need to try and clear some bad contacts and see how their young players develop. If in 2 years they still need Dubois and can afford his contract, look at him then, if he gets to UFA.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsAug. 5, 2022 at 10:46 a.m.
Thread: Serious Offer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>EatMyScoobySnack</b></div><div>While Xhekaj is not so offensive and stats wise, he seen as a good physical defensive D-man the fact he was not draft show that he have pass under the radar. There some junior player who have play against him that say he's a hard man to work around.

He may not be the most spectacular or prolific defense player but he still could have a good carrier as physical top 4 or top 6. Pair him with a more offensive player he could make a good partner.


Also while I understand there as certain value to a 24 year old center with a good physics and able to produce Average of 60 pts per season, people also need to think that this value have been reduce by the same player and agent because they have go to media on multiple occasions telling anyone who want to listen that they want out of Winnipeg, where they would likely goes and want to be decisive about where they want to go by been UFA.

Now like I say on multiple occasions, there could still be a trick use to have better leverage to negotiate on price of the new contract like done before by alot of other player. But there also the chance that this is genuine. If the case gm would be more conservative on there decision to trade for him.

Some could see him having attitude problem to not be able to stay with the same team for long. It's could also be just the case the player didn't like the team for which he play and was just obligated to do is job because of the constraints is contract demand.</div></div>

You rationalization of lowball offers went off the rails when you assumed Dubois and his agent "have said multiple times he wants out of Winnipeg." Dubois and his agent have NEVER said he wants out of Winnipeg. Just that he intends to go to UFA before signing long term anywhere.

Dubois also has never said he will only sign long-term in Montreal. While I'm sure Montreal media portrays it that way, all Dubois' agent said is that he wouldn't mind playing in Montreal someday. Just like Tkachuk wouldn't mind playing in St. Louis and Huberdeau wouldn't mind playing in Montreal. Yet neither of them signed long-term in those cities.

So, you need to rethink your rationalization. While Montreal fans mistakenly believe they have all the leverage in this situation, the reality is they have no leverage.

Meaning Montreal has no leverage to force Winnipeg to take a far below market value return in a trade.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 4, 2022 at 1:44 p.m.
Thread: i had a dream last night that the Pens made this trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Reff</b></div><div>Yes, if we were contenders, you'd be 150% right, Hughes would do it and send PIT flowers and a box of good champagne bottles. Problem is we're rebuilding and won't be competitive until 2024-2025. So trading Anderson for Guentzel means that his contract ends in 2 years, he'll be 30, and there's a good chance we lose him for nothing. Anderson will still be there on a 2nd/3rd line bringing grit and his share of goals.</div></div>

That also would mean you can ship Guentzel out at the TDL sooner for pieces that can also help your roster sooner. If they really wanted to get max value, they could retain 3 million for 2 years and flip Guentzel to a contender early. The return on that would be pretty ridiculous I'd imagine given how much Hagel returned. Either way you can garner prime assets sooner with Guentzel than you probably can with Anderson.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 2, 2022 at 11:17 a.m.
Thread: All moves between now and 2023 draft
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Reff</b></div><div>Hughes must have reports from Montreal doctors saying that Byron will miss a huge part of the season, otherwise a big contract would have been traded.

The Price situation is different, they must not have all the information. That's why Allen is still with the team. If Price is cleared, Allen will be traded. If he's not, Allen stays.

Either way, Hughes has some space to work. If both are ready to start, then I see Drouin being traded because he's the only one who shouldn't cost assets to move.</div></div>

But that would be short-sighted. Paying a 2nd in the 55-64 range in 2024 to move Hoffman if you really believe you'll be able to trade Drouin for a pick in the 22-32 range in 2023 with salary retained at the TDL is not a good idea. I think Drouin convinces a few folks that he's part of the solution as a rental this season. Trade Hoffman... no will ever think he's part of the solution in the playoffs.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 29, 2022 at 10:27 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 3, 2022 at 10:53 a.m.
Thread: The most realistic Habs ACGM yet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Reff</b></div><div>In the Habs D squad, he's our 4th D. He struggled under Ducharme's system, but raised his game when MSL arrived.

I don't want to put all the blame on Bergevin, he did pretty good in his first years and drafted well in the past 2-3 years. His problem was that he made personal business decisions signing Price, Petry and Gallagher to long and bad contracts, and then things started to fall down. Don't forget that we lost both Weber and Price this year. Even MSL would have struggled the first weeks of the season.</div></div>

He definitely would’ve, however, Bergevin signed everyone for too long like you said. Hoffman, Savard, Armia shouldn't have gotten those contracts either. He was good, but just like a lot of GMs out there, he messed up, and signed guys to win. Injuries kind of screwed this team over, but yah he gave people too much term. At least they are back on track, and starting to make the team turn around, even if that means rebuilding for a few years. Bergevin definitely had good drafting, I’ll give him that.

Oh well, they will just have to look at the next season, and see if they can get rid of some of those contracts! Seems like they are in good hands for right now. It was nice taking to you, and seeing what your opinion is on all of this! Have a good one, and I hope we can talk more in the future!
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 3, 2022 at 10:18 a.m.
Thread: The most realistic Habs ACGM yet
It makes more sense for the Habs to ride out some of the bad Bergevin deals instead of trying to force trades of their distressed assets like Petry or Dvorak. Go in with a full summer &amp; training camp for MSL to really get the players familiar with his system, then see how they come out of the gate. A lot of these guys are already at or near their lowest trade value, so at the very worst you're trying to trade a guy like Mike Hoffman as he has less and less term on his deal. And hey, if those players play better under MSL, that trade value comes back up and they become easier to move!

You've got $2.3M in cap space with this squad - and I see an easy $11.8M coming off at the end of this season. Poehling, Harris, and Caufield will need new deals but you'll still have plenty of room to get some fresh blood in there and build up for a good 2023-24 season.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 15, 2020 at 11:59 a.m.
Thread: Habs with no movements
Made a team with a similar concept:

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1915813">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1915813</a>

I agree, Domi, Suzuki, and Kotkaniemi have all played significant time at wing throughout there careers. Its not crazy to think that one of them could play top 6 RW. I went with Kotkaniemi because he is the most unproven center of the 3, and I see his physicality and shot being a good compliment to Suzuki and Drouin. KK and Evans also shared C duties on a line Laval and it worked really good, i could see having a leftt and righty together working well.

Lastly I see Domi's speed and playmaking being a great fit with Caufield in the future.

I think you went a little overboard with the Domi contract, because you know Gallagher, Tatar, and Danault will be pointing to Domi as a comparison for their next deals. If you are resigning Domi it is very important you don't overpay. I used Tyler Johnson as a comparable, and added ~$500k due to cap inflation. Tampa has tax advantage, but COVID also effects the market negatively for all free agents right now. Also Johnson contract jot looking that great for TB right now so hard to argue for Domi getting more.

Edit:
And if a C gets hurt then obviously you have KK or whoever is on the wing ready to fill in. Its a huge bonus and a good problem to have.