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TMarch
Member Since
Apr. 3, 2017
Favourite Team
Detroit Red Wings
2nd Favourite Team
Vegas Golden Knights
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Forum:
Armchair-GM
Fri. at 5:04 p.m.
Thread:
det 22-23
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>Pasta is 36yrs old and agreed to an extension yesterday?</div></div>
Sorry, not Pasta. Bergeron did. Don't know how I swapped them.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Fri. at 2:09 p.m.
Thread:
det 22-23
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Schood1c</b></div><div>Pasta trade starts with 1 of Raymond or Seider no if's and's or but's</div></div>
One, no one is going to get a 20yr old Calder finalist or winner for a 36yr old player.
Two, Pasta agreed to an extension yesterday.
Three, why would DET even do this?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 3:48 p.m.
Thread:
Red Wings with Hague OS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DeadWingsv2</b></div><div>Vegas easily matches that OS and all it accomplished was wasting everyone's time.
Offer sheets only go through when they're for way more than the other club can afford, or is willing to risk being stuck with because the contract has driven into untradable territory, otherwise all they accomplish is bad blood between GMs, soured relationships with a player and the club, tied up assets while the process plays out and then if they actually go through - the prize is giving up a boat load of picks for an over paid player.
I will never understand the fascination with offer sheets.</div></div>
So, I don't think Hague is worth that offer sheet, and DET shouldn't be offering him. But in what world can Vegas afford to match that? They have 18 players signed, and are already $2.6M over the cap (taking into account Weber's LTIR). They need to move ~$8M more to be able to ice a full team. Unless they are going to move one of the big guns (only Theodore, Stephenson, and Whitecloud are without some type of movement protection) then they'd have a difficult time matching any offer, let alone that one.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed. at 4:29 p.m.
Thread:
Stevey Calls Tampa
No way that's close to a fair deal. From the eye test perspective, Sergachev is a #3 Dman. From an analytics perspective, he's a #4-5 Dman that needs to be sheltered. He would demand a low-end 1st rounder, and maybe a mid-round pick (depending on the draft, either a 3rd or 4th). A trade for Sergachev isn't touching a high-end first-rounder, nor is it touching a top prospect.
I could see Steve offering both 2nd round picks in 2022 for Sergachev. I wouldn't, but that could be closer to a fair deal.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 15 at 9:44 a.m.
Thread:
Detroit
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>armer918</b></div><div>If the price to move him is a first they will just buy him out or roll into this season and wait for his LBI and place him on LTIR.</div></div>
Yeah, buying him out isn't an option. It doesn't cut enough cap space for them to do anything (still carry 1.5M for 4 years). TOR's window is now, they need to plug their major holes this season, or next year will probably be Matthew's last in TOR, kicking off a major rebuild. They need to sign 4 Fs, 2 D, and a G, and all those guys need to move the needle, so they won't be doing much plugging in with prospects. They need $12M just to keep the same team out on the ice next year and have only ~$7.8M. They can get to $11.6M trading Mrazek, or $9.3M buying him out. Mrazek does have a modified NTC (10 teams), so it would be interesting to see who's on that list.
Not only do I expect Mrazek to be moved, I think you could see another contract or two go as well (Nylander, Muzzin, Kerfoot are all prime candidates. I would try to move Taveres myself, but that's a huge hit that the production doesn't match).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 14 at 3:58 p.m.
Thread:
Another Go
Barbashev with a 23% shooting percentage? That's a massive amount of luck, not player growth. He also has a 39% FO Win percentage, one of the worse in the league. For reference, Pius Suter won 49.5% of his draws, at 3x the number of chances as Barbashev.
With figures like that, he wouldn't be worth a 4th round pick, let alone (2) 2nds. He's barely a 4th line C, let alone a 2nd line C.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 14 at 3:49 p.m.
Thread:
2023 Wings - Getting to the cap floor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wolverrobert</b></div><div>Monahan isn't healthy this offseason and you have to move him in less than a month if you want to re-sign your guys. Monahan's play in the last three NHL seasons hasn't been 2C level play. He is a massive risk even with only one year left on his contract. I don't see teams lining up to pay for Monahan's services. Maybe someone like Arizona just wants to hit the cap floor and gives you a late pick, but they probably have better options for hitting the cap floor.</div></div>
DET needs to get to the cap floor as well (hence, the title of this post). They need to take on some significant cash to get to the floor. CGY is going to have to pay someone to take their cap, and Monahan is the easiest option (Lucic is another, but I think he has more value to CGY than Monahan does).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 14 at 12:14 p.m.
Thread:
Necas and Campbell
DET still needs to take on salary. DET isn't at the cap floor yet, even if Fabbri is on the roster. Need to get to $61M.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 14 at 12:11 p.m.
Thread:
A dream that wont happen mkIV - new look bertNecas trade
I think the Monahan trade is feasible, though I don't think you give up Suter. He can play more of a swiss army knife role for the middle 6 (pun intended), he just shouldn't be a 2C (I think he'd be a strong 3C). If you move someone, it would be more Erne, though I really think you move a pick for Monahan.
The CAR trade is a little too much for Bert. Necas is a good 2C candidate and is very young with cost control, but sending him and a 1st round pick for 1 year of Bert (even if he signs an extension, you are talking about losing salary control) is too much. Gardiner may or may not play, so he's an LTIR candidate, so moving that money isn't important.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 13 at 3:22 p.m.
Thread:
All in
You are going to have to add more in the DET swap. The bones are right, but to move up ~30 spots for taking on 3.6M isn't going to move the needle. Add in another piece to make it work.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 13 at 11:36 a.m.
Thread:
Rangers Side of the Mega Deal AGM
It's hard to see DET paying $8M/season for Trouba to be the #3 Dman (he's not overtaking Seider). It would have to be more like $5.5-6M/season. Having a RHD deployment of Seider/Trouba/Hronek would be very solid.
But, DET isn't trading Bertuzzi for Trouba. If you consider the trade to be Kappo for Zadina, and Bert and Sundqvist for Trouba, Chytil, and a 1st, that's still not great value for Bert (based on the money coming back and the age of Trouba). DET isn't going to get older trading Bertuzzi without some type of overpayment.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 13 at 11:27 a.m.
Thread:
Trouba Trade
Hard to imagine DET taking on Trouba at $8M/season to play #3 dman minutes. He's not going to overtake Seider as the top RHD. He's better than Hronek, but not that much. I'd love to see a Seider/Trouba/Hronek RHD in DET, but it'll need to be more like $5.5/6M per season.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 13 at 11:23 a.m.
Thread:
Dreaming
I'm not sure CGY will get away with moving Monahan without adding some type of sweetener to get something back. There will be quite a few cap moves this offseason, so moving without sweeteners probably won't happen.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 8 at 12:27 p.m.
Thread:
Monahan
Based on CGY's cap issues, they'll definitely have to pay to move Monahan. They'll need every dollar to pay Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Mangiapane, and Kylington and still improve the team. I can see CGY attaching a sweetener to get a pick back. I'm sure they'll try to move Lucic first (though, that may require more sweeteners, like a 1st round pick), but Monahan may cost less to move.
Moving Lucic and/or Monahan isn't just about resigning the FAs, they need to improve the team too. Standing pat isn't going to be an option, so while they may have some money after resigning those 4, they need money to get better too. Not much help on the horizon without going outside the org. The 4 FAs will cost ~$23M/year, leaving them with ~4M to improve the team, which isn't going to get them what they need.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 8 at 12:20 p.m.
Thread:
Trade for evaluation
Seems like a lot for Scandella, based on STL wanting to move on from him and may need to pay to move him. Even with Schenn in the mix, no way anyone gives up 4 pieces for both contracts. I could see a 2nd round pick for both (value is in Schenn, while just eating Scandella).
Forum:
Columbus Blue Jackets
Jun. 8 at 10:22 a.m.
Thread:
CBJ Big Game Hunting for Laine tell me what you want
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pocke</b></div><div>Sorry, I meant to complement Laine. Not trading for Laine.</div></div>
Oh, sorry. I read it as a trading Laine. Then ignore all that :)
Forum:
Columbus Blue Jackets
Jun. 8 at 10:15 a.m.
Thread:
CBJ Big Game Hunting for Laine tell me what you want
So, in my mind, I would remove all the potentials that are older than Laine (or not close). No reason to trade someone that young and accomplished for someone older. In many of those cases, you aren't saving much in the cap anyway, and you are shortening the runway to UFA.
After doing that, you are left with:
Hischier - Interesting thought. Cs are worth much more than Ws, but Laine is probably slightly more valuable. Hischier and a B+ prospect/late 2nd round pick might be the equivalent. But, I don't think NJD would do it, their C depth might be one of the best things about their future, and they can get a top W in this draft with 2OA and lock in cost certainty.
Travis Konecny - Slightly older, but close enough. Again, Cs are more valuable, but I think Laine is way better than Konecny, unless Konecny really turns around his trends from the last 2 years for his underlying numbers. It would have to be Konecny, an A prospect, and a pick to start.
Dylan Larkin - Again, slightly older, and a C. No way DET trades its hometown captain. The Illitches don't trade their captains unless they beg them to. They vetoed the Yzerman trade to OTT when Bowman was begging them to do it. Since Steve, all DET captains have been Wings lifers, once they made Larkin the captain that defined the UFA strategy for DET. Larkin is 1 year from UFA as well, so even if you could get him to sign an extension, you aren't saving any money, he'll command at least 8.5m/year. A realistic trade would be close to 1 for 1, but the required Yzerman trade would have DET winning HUGE, something to the effect of Laine + Johnson or Sillinger for Larkin, which is obviously a no-go.
Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas - Both interesting names, both in the right age ranges, but would that improve the team? Trades for either of them would be Kyrou/Thomas plus a B+ prospect/2nd round pick for Laine. Each would give you cost savings, and Thomas would add more runway to the UFA timeline.
Matthew Tkachuk - Tkachuk has played 1 more year, but is only slightly older. From an underlying numbers perspective, Tkachuk has more value than Laine, scores at a slightly higher pace (fewer goals, but more assists, and does it with fewer shots and a more sustainable shooting percentage), plays a much tougher game and can play on the defensive side too (does have future Selke consideration in him). Salaries will be about the same (8-8.5M/year). At best, CGY would do it as a 1-for-1 trade, but most likely CLB would have to pay more to get Tkachuk.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 7 at 4:33 p.m.
Thread:
Ideas
The ARI deal makes no sense for ARI. ARI needs prospects and draft picks, while Zadina is still young, Hronek is getting toward the middle. No way ARI doesn't get at least (1) 1st rounder out of a deal for Chychrun (though, the underlying numbers aren't anywhere near as good as the fans think they are, he's still worth a 1st rounder). The proposed deal has quantity, but not a ton of rebuild quality.
The CGY deal doesn't make a lot of financial sense for CGY, so cut out the players and just leave the picks. If CGY can move Lucic and Monahan for a 1st round pick, especially where they are picking this year, then they should do it. Keeping Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane should be the focus. They aren't far off from contending in the West (though, going through COL will be tough). That deal clears up 11.5M of cap space. I'm not sure DET wants to take on 2 bad contracts, even at the price of a 1st round pick.
Dadonov still has a modified NTC, and if ANA was on it, you can expect DET to be on it too. Even if you could get him to waive, there isn't much value coming DET's way in that deal. Brossoit is good for a backup, but it's a 1 year deal before UFA. The return to take on cash has to be worth it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 5 at 6:16 p.m.
Thread:
Liljegren OS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>By the offer sheet rules, I don't think Liljregrn or Sandin or offer eligible. They haven't played 80 NHL games in the previous two seasons.
Expiring ELCs do not signify eligibility for offer sheets.</div></div>
Both Sandin and Liljregrn meet the RFA requirements and are eligible for offer sheets but have no arb rights. They are not 10.2c RFAs due to having more than 3 years of professional experience. Because they had contract slides (1 for Sandin, 2 for Liljregrn), they still did accumulate professional years (both of them in the AHL).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 5 at 6:06 p.m.
Thread:
Lateral moves
Konecny is a C, but his 2-way game kinda fell apart this year. It's difficult to compare TK to Bert, as Cs have more responsibility on the D side than wingers do (unless you are playing the left wing lock). If TK picks up the 2-way game again next year, his value would be higher than Bert. Bert plays a gritter game though (Philly style) that is well built for the playoffs, but PHI is nowhere near the playoffs.
I don't think either team would entertain this type of trade.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 5 at 6:00 p.m.
Thread:
Flame Broiled
Don't think Steve would offer Kylington that much. He's at arb rights, but his comparables aren't in the 4M range. He's had 1 year of decent production. He's probably closer to $2-2.25M on the market. Maybe get $3M in arb.
I suspect CGY trades Monahan with a sweetener. I bet Steve gets involved in that.
I like the Campbell deal, but he isn't getting $6M. Probably closer to 4.5M though.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 1 at 4:02 p.m.
Thread:
wings 22-23
The issue with this lineup means that one of Larkin or Bertuzzi is guaranteed to be gone (obviously it's Bert). Way too many long term contracts that will burn us in the end (except maybe Forsberg, but I think his AAV will be higher).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 1 at 12:21 p.m.
Thread:
Would Steve trade the 1st
Unless WPG is going full rebuild, then I'm not sure the deal makes sense for either team. Value isn't awful (#8OA, a 2nd pairing RHD, a middle 6 winger and C, plus 2 other earlier round picks for a 1-ish C, a 2nd pairing Dman, and a lower pick), but that means that WPG should be dealing everyone else too (Wheeler, Scheifele, and Dillion would be the targets before PLD). I'm not sure why WPG would deal one of the youngest players on their team first though, he should be leading the rebuild, not being the first one out. PLD's numbers would also be better if he was playing 1st line minutes, with 1st line players, he didn't always get that in WPG.
PLD would be the C piece that DET needs, and it is easier to find wingers than Cs, but that does suck some of the depth out of DET's system, plus affects the future growth. It also takes away some of their salary flexibility, they still need to pay PLD, Larkin, Bertuzzi and are significantly overpaying for Schmidt.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 31 at 11:30 a.m.
Thread:
Fixing C depth
The only way NYI trades for Bertuzzi is to put him next to Barzal. Other than that, Bert isn't necessary in NYI.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 30 at 6:09 p.m.
Thread:
The Bye bye larkin scenario
Zero chance Larkin gets traded. Larkin changed agents not necessarily to play hardball. A lot of guys (if not most) change agents and don't go anywhere.
Reasons for changing agents include wanting a different voice, difference in opinions in off ice work (agents don't just handle the hockey side, they handle the promo side too), maybe the agent ran his mouth about Bertuzzi (or Steve) and Larkin didn't like it, etc. Most reasons have nothing to do with hockey.
Stevie will sign Larkin to an 8*8.5M contract sometime after July 1st. No way Illitch let's the hometown captain leave, it's not the Red Wings way (not Steve's way either).
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