Apr. 3, 2017
Detroit Red Wings
2nd Favourite Team
Vegas Golden Knights
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DeadWingsv2</b></div><div>Vegas easily matches that OS and all it accomplished was wasting everyone's time.
Offer sheets only go through when they're for way more than the other club can afford, or is willing to risk being stuck with because the contract has driven into untradable territory, otherwise all they accomplish is bad blood between GMs, soured relationships with a player and the club, tied up assets while the process plays out and then if they actually go through - the prize is giving up a boat load of picks for an over paid player.
I will never understand the fascination with offer sheets.</div></div>
So, I don't think Hague is worth that offer sheet, and DET shouldn't be offering him. But in what world can Vegas afford to match that? They have 18 players signed, and are already $2.6M over the cap (taking into account Weber's LTIR). They need to move ~$8M more to be able to ice a full team. Unless they are going to move one of the big guns (only Theodore, Stephenson, and Whitecloud are without some type of movement protection) then they'd have a difficult time matching any offer, let alone that one.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>armer918</b></div><div>If the price to move him is a first they will just buy him out or roll into this season and wait for his LBI and place him on LTIR.</div></div>
Yeah, buying him out isn't an option. It doesn't cut enough cap space for them to do anything (still carry 1.5M for 4 years). TOR's window is now, they need to plug their major holes this season, or next year will probably be Matthew's last in TOR, kicking off a major rebuild. They need to sign 4 Fs, 2 D, and a G, and all those guys need to move the needle, so they won't be doing much plugging in with prospects. They need $12M just to keep the same team out on the ice next year and have only ~$7.8M. They can get to $11.6M trading Mrazek, or $9.3M buying him out. Mrazek does have a modified NTC (10 teams), so it would be interesting to see who's on that list.
Not only do I expect Mrazek to be moved, I think you could see another contract or two go as well (Nylander, Muzzin, Kerfoot are all prime candidates. I would try to move Taveres myself, but that's a huge hit that the production doesn't match).
Based on CGY's cap issues, they'll definitely have to pay to move Monahan. They'll need every dollar to pay Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Mangiapane, and Kylington and still improve the team. I can see CGY attaching a sweetener to get a pick back. I'm sure they'll try to move Lucic first (though, that may require more sweeteners, like a 1st round pick), but Monahan may cost less to move.
Moving Lucic and/or Monahan isn't just about resigning the FAs, they need to improve the team too. Standing pat isn't going to be an option, so while they may have some money after resigning those 4, they need money to get better too. Not much help on the horizon without going outside the org. The 4 FAs will cost ~$23M/year, leaving them with ~4M to improve the team, which isn't going to get them what they need.
So, in my mind, I would remove all the potentials that are older than Laine (or not close). No reason to trade someone that young and accomplished for someone older. In many of those cases, you aren't saving much in the cap anyway, and you are shortening the runway to UFA.
After doing that, you are left with:
Hischier - Interesting thought. Cs are worth much more than Ws, but Laine is probably slightly more valuable. Hischier and a B+ prospect/late 2nd round pick might be the equivalent. But, I don't think NJD would do it, their C depth might be one of the best things about their future, and they can get a top W in this draft with 2OA and lock in cost certainty.
Travis Konecny - Slightly older, but close enough. Again, Cs are more valuable, but I think Laine is way better than Konecny, unless Konecny really turns around his trends from the last 2 years for his underlying numbers. It would have to be Konecny, an A prospect, and a pick to start.
Dylan Larkin - Again, slightly older, and a C. No way DET trades its hometown captain. The Illitches don't trade their captains unless they beg them to. They vetoed the Yzerman trade to OTT when Bowman was begging them to do it. Since Steve, all DET captains have been Wings lifers, once they made Larkin the captain that defined the UFA strategy for DET. Larkin is 1 year from UFA as well, so even if you could get him to sign an extension, you aren't saving any money, he'll command at least 8.5m/year. A realistic trade would be close to 1 for 1, but the required Yzerman trade would have DET winning HUGE, something to the effect of Laine + Johnson or Sillinger for Larkin, which is obviously a no-go.
Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas - Both interesting names, both in the right age ranges, but would that improve the team? Trades for either of them would be Kyrou/Thomas plus a B+ prospect/2nd round pick for Laine. Each would give you cost savings, and Thomas would add more runway to the UFA timeline.
Matthew Tkachuk - Tkachuk has played 1 more year, but is only slightly older. From an underlying numbers perspective, Tkachuk has more value than Laine, scores at a slightly higher pace (fewer goals, but more assists, and does it with fewer shots and a more sustainable shooting percentage), plays a much tougher game and can play on the defensive side too (does have future Selke consideration in him). Salaries will be about the same (8-8.5M/year). At best, CGY would do it as a 1-for-1 trade, but most likely CLB would have to pay more to get Tkachuk.
The ARI deal makes no sense for ARI. ARI needs prospects and draft picks, while Zadina is still young, Hronek is getting toward the middle. No way ARI doesn't get at least (1) 1st rounder out of a deal for Chychrun (though, the underlying numbers aren't anywhere near as good as the fans think they are, he's still worth a 1st rounder). The proposed deal has quantity, but not a ton of rebuild quality.
The CGY deal doesn't make a lot of financial sense for CGY, so cut out the players and just leave the picks. If CGY can move Lucic and Monahan for a 1st round pick, especially where they are picking this year, then they should do it. Keeping Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane should be the focus. They aren't far off from contending in the West (though, going through COL will be tough). That deal clears up 11.5M of cap space. I'm not sure DET wants to take on 2 bad contracts, even at the price of a 1st round pick.
Dadonov still has a modified NTC, and if ANA was on it, you can expect DET to be on it too. Even if you could get him to waive, there isn't much value coming DET's way in that deal. Brossoit is good for a backup, but it's a 1 year deal before UFA. The return to take on cash has to be worth it.
Unless WPG is going full rebuild, then I'm not sure the deal makes sense for either team. Value isn't awful (#8OA, a 2nd pairing RHD, a middle 6 winger and C, plus 2 other earlier round picks for a 1-ish C, a 2nd pairing Dman, and a lower pick), but that means that WPG should be dealing everyone else too (Wheeler, Scheifele, and Dillion would be the targets before PLD). I'm not sure why WPG would deal one of the youngest players on their team first though, he should be leading the rebuild, not being the first one out. PLD's numbers would also be better if he was playing 1st line minutes, with 1st line players, he didn't always get that in WPG.
PLD would be the C piece that DET needs, and it is easier to find wingers than Cs, but that does suck some of the depth out of DET's system, plus affects the future growth. It also takes away some of their salary flexibility, they still need to pay PLD, Larkin, Bertuzzi and are significantly overpaying for Schmidt.