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TMarch

Member Since
Apr. 3, 2017
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Detroit Red Wings
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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19, 2023 at 10:17 a.m.
Thread: The Old Miami
Woof!

DET is not trading the BOS 1st rounder, as it could end up being a middle 1st in 2024 or better (BOS has some serious issues to deal with, there are not a lock for the playoffs next year). No way DET is trading potentially 2 lottery picks for Connor. Maybe 1, but even that's unlikely. And Connor is still young enough that even if WPG reloads they'll need players that are ready now (plus, they need to hit the cap floor). WPG is more likely to trade Scheifele, Wheeler, Helle, PDB way before Connor. PDB is going to bring back a 1st rounder, as will Scheifele. Helle probably will as well (though with those contract demands that isn't as likely). Wheeler has some value to a Stanley Cup contender and will bring some value back.

The reason why OTT "wants" to trade Debrincat is because you'll have to pay him next year, and it's perceived that he's not worth the value of that contract (which will be in the $8m/year range), on top of paying him $9m this next season. So, it's hard to say what the return will be because you'll have to pay out the nose to bring him in. I think Steve has learned from his TBL days about having more balance in his spending instead of trading away 1st rounders and prospects to get the middle 6/bottom 4 right, so I can't see him giving Debrincat that much money, then have to pay out Raymond and Seider very soon too.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 18, 2023 at 1:53 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 17, 2023 at 12:14 p.m.
Thread: Marner to Detroit
Can't see Steve moving 17OA this year, draft is too deep. Also I think Steve will keep the 2024 BOS 1st rounder because who knows where BOS will be next season (with their cap issues including 4.5M in dead money, and aging, they could be fighting hard to make the playoffs). Totally can see all 3 2023 2nd rounders in play. Also can't see TOR getting full value for anyone other than Matthews. This isn't CGY/FLA or OTT/CHI trades, none of those teams were backed into a corner cap wise. TOR has cap issues, plus just can't bring back the same team after the failures of the last few years. I also think TOR can get more for Nylander than Marner, especially if they can get a contract extension for Nylander as part of the deal.

TOR needs to bring in 6-8 people with the ~$8m in cap space they have, plus whoever they move. And they HAVE to get better at the same time. Tough prospect with the FA class and being stuck in a corner.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 11, 2023 at 3:06 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 10, 2023 at 10:35 a.m.
Thread: Post DL 2023 Lineup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>Absolutely hall, this he's done narrative is crazy, his role in Boston was just lessened and he was their best forward in the playoffs when he was needed and his role expanded. Severson is finally tasting the playoffs I doubt he goes back to another rebuild unless you way overpay him. I doubt Suter Chaisson oesterle are back.</div></div>

Anyone that says Hall is done didn't look very deeply into the stats. He missed games last year, which had an effect on the counting stats. His zone start splits showed a significant move toward defensive zone starts, which limits scoring opportunities. He spent a majority of the year being centered by Coyle (~25% of the season along Coyle was Hall's C). When Hall was paired with Coyle, they drew tougher D matchups, but also controlled play (55% of the chances while they were on the ice together). His other time was mainly spent with Krejci, where he had a negative split on chances (~47%, and that includes a negative split when Pasta was on the ice with them, which is amazing). He also have significantly less power play time (50% less year over year), which also limits his scoring potential. Overall, Hall is linemate dependent, and what could he do with Larkin and Raymond/Perron? At $6m/2 years, he's making about average salary for that production.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoreHitzSeider</b></div><div>I can't see Hall waiving for Detroit.</div></div>

This is a common response. If a team doesn't want them, they'll waive. They always do. The number of times a modified no trade clause has stopped a trade is pretty small. He'll have to submit his list on July 1st, and it's for 10 teams only. Maybe DET is on it, but that means 21 other teams aren't on it, and he could go there. If BOS wants to move him, it'll happen.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 10, 2023 at 10:13 a.m.
Thread: Post DL 2023 Lineup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>Debrincat makes a lot more sense than Hall.</div></div>

The cost for Hall is significantly less in prospect and draft capital than for Debrincat. OTT is going to need to recoup some of the assets they gave away, you won't get Debrincat for a 2nd and a 4th, you are giving up at least (1) 1st rounder, plus other capital. And then you have to pay him. Debrincat's qualifying offer just to keep his rights in $9m, so you'll have to pay him that much next season before he becomes a UFA. Offer Sheet would be (4) 1st round picks due to that. He'll probably get ~8m/year on a longer term deal in the UFA period. Is Debrincat worth $8m/year in DET? Remember, you just paid Larkin, you'll need to start paying Seider and Raymond soon, and will want to improve the team.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 13, 2023 at 3:35 p.m.
Thread: Potential moves for Steve Yzerman to make
I'll keep beating the dead horse (Zadina). No way anyone takes Zadina for a 2nd. Maybe a 4th, so if you are Steve, you don't trade young assets with cost control for a 4th round pick. Zadina is an NHL player, he might not be what he was drafted for, but he can play. He's not keeping anyone off the roster. If he's a bottom six guy, then it works at that cost (look at a lot of team's other bottom 6 and you'll see Zadina is cheaper than most).

If you are signing Grewe, you don't know much about hockey. Grewe is playing in the SHL minor leagues, not even in the SHL, and is playing horribly. His career is pretty much over. Too bad too, he had promise, it was all on him. Mastro might get signed by DET (or someone), but is probably an AHL player at best.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4, 2023 at 4:18 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4, 2023 at 4:14 p.m.
Thread: Draft Lottery miracle
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>I'd send Fantilli back to college for a year and tank let the kids all play and collect another top ten pick.</div></div>

I thought about that, but DET needs to find at least a 1B C, and Fantilli could be that pretty quickly based on what he showed at Michigan this year (I know I have him on the 3rd line here, but it'll end up being the line blender). I'm not sure another year in college would do him any good. If Fantilli can jump to the 1B C, it really starts setting up the top 12 pretty well.

DET also needs to worry about the salary floor. Just playing the kids wouldn't get them there. They could take on some $ from a team that'll go on IR, but there is some available talent that would fit in DET with Severson that would get them there too. Trades could be an option, taking some bad cap off people's hands for picks (see Hall, Taylor that could be an example).