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TheSummerofGeorge

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Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 25, 2023 at 4:36 p.m.
Thread: Big Push
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Alright your new so I'll break this down for you.

<strong>Point 1:</strong> lets look at some comparable fairly recently signed players to Timo Meier in terms of production and overall impact that were RFA's at the time of their deals. Fiala (7.8M, 9.5% of cap at signing), Nylander (6.96M, 8.76%), Kyrou (8.125M, 9.7% starting next year). Meier is an RFA at the end of this season, he is not a UFA that can demand a huge pay or walk elsewhere. He is also not remotely the same caliber player as Huberdeau despite his struggles this year, he was still well over a ppg for 4 seasons straight. There is no chance you can ever convince me Meier is worth more than 10% of the cap as a player that has never finished above a ppg and is an RFA in the offseason.

<strong>Point 2:</strong> Exceeding that cap in the offseason is irrelevant because you <strong>have</strong> to be cap compliant by day 1 of the regular season. Lets look at that list of 11* players currently with 2 years remaining in order of greatest cap hit: Backlund, Hanifin, Lindholm, Tanev, Toffoli, Zadorov, Kylington, Dube, Rooney, Pelletier, Ruzicka. Pelletier and Ruzicka are coming off ELC's and almost certainly get raises. Backlund, Hanifin, and Tanev all have relevant No Trade Clauses so they are hard to move (and none of them should be anyways since they are all extremely important to the roster). Lindholm is the Flames 1C so thats out of question. Toffoli has very similar production to Meier for nearly half the price of his next deal. So that leaves Zadorov, Dube (RFA), and Kylington. Calgary is already projected to have just under 1.8M cap and 18 players signed next year (that is the core listed on <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/calgary-flames/cap/2023/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Sportrac</a>, it does not include any of rookies except Ruzicka). Assuming Rooney 100% gets dumped (pretty much guaranteed) that will add an extra 1.3M but then an extra roster spot needs to be filled. The point I'm making here is we probably still have to move cap out in the summer to just be compliant.

If your argument is that we can fit him in if we do major roster surgery and don't care about anyone like Vegas or a video game then sure but that's not remotely realistic and a complete waste of time to debate. We could fit EK65 too by that logic. The point is we cannot effectively fit him under the cap without completing butchering our depth.</div></div>

Oh because I'm "new here"? How kind of you. Posting on CapFriendly every day must make you extra smart and qualified when it comes to player evaluation.

In the hypothetical event Timo Meier is not qualified for the $10M and becomes a free agent, what do you think he would get in the open market? Bring up comparables all you want, the market value on a long term extension on Timo Meier starts with a $9, minimum. Since the start of last season, Timo Meier sits 14th in the league goals. Top 30 in points. 1st in the entire league in shots on net, and on pace for 375 this year. 4th in the league this year in individual expected goals. 97th percentile in WAR per TopDown. All while being strong defensively and being one of the league's true remaining power forwards. With the cap expected to go up *significantly* after next year, yea---a long term extension on Timo Meier is worth a lot. Well above $8.5.

The Athletic has Timo Meier at a market value of $11M. Your pal Huberdeau comes in at $7.3M.

"He's not a UFA that can demand a huge pay or walk elsewhere"

Are you not paying attention? That's the entire point of the $10MQO. He can take the $10M and walk himself to free agency in a year. He's also got arb rights that would spit out a 1-year deal where he's still getting over $8.5M. Nylander signed his deal coming off his ELC when he was 22 years old with no arbitration rights after a 60 point season. Just because they are comparable now, doesn't mean Meier now is in any way comparable to Nylander in 2018. That's absurd.

Exceeding the cap in the offseason is 100 % relevant to your incorrect claim that they "can't afford it". Of course they can. And being able to exceed the cap gives them time to move out money to get compliant before the season. You don't have to be compliant as soon as his new deal kicks in. Having 10 guys on expiring contracts as one of the already oldest teams in the league is a problem. If you have a chance to add a 26 year old star to a long term contract, you should be 100% willing to get rid a couple of the older guys on expiring contracts who don't fit your longer term window. Moving Zadorov (assuming a healthy Kylington comes back) and an old expiring forward is not "major surgery". It's necessary.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 24, 2023 at 1:02 p.m.
Thread: Big Push
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 15, 2023 at 6:22 p.m.
Thread: All in
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 11, 2023 at 1:26 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dr_Invictus</b></div><div>I dunno, it would seem difficult to replace Reinhart at 2C. Lindell seems like a 3C. Then again, I haven't looked at the FA market for next year. Although, the biggest mistakes are made July 1st. Signing anyone over 28 to a long-term deal is foolish. The contracts end poorly (as Calgary will find out). Calgary isn't close to contention IMO and they need a solid pick in this draft to restock the cupboards. My guess is that prices will be lower than anticipated this TD day. As you said, the cap is tight and could be only increasing by 1MM next year</div></div>

I think the Flames are pretty stuck right now, TBH. Worrying about draft picks and restocking the prospect cupboards isn't really a realistic option.

You can't suck and blow at the same time---the moves Treliving made this summer (trading 24 year old Tkachuk for two 29 year olds and giving them huge extensions, signing a 32 year old Kadri to a huge contract, trading a 1st round pick just to dump Monahan's salary etc.) already solidified the "win now" direction the Flames would be pursuing. You can't really hit the undo button on those---and the future has already been mortgaged.

Even though they look like garbage right now, you kind of have to be at least willing to move your picks and prospects because they aren't likely going to help you win in this limited contention window the Flames have carved out for themselves. Next year, the extensions for Huberdeau, Weegar and Vladar kick in. The year after, Lindholm, Hanifin, Toffoli, Backlund, Tanev, Kylington, Zadorov are all UFAs. Dube, Pelletier, Ruzicka all RFAs needing raises.

There really isn't a bright future for this Flames group as currently constructed. You can try and spend assets to fix your problems and double down on the "win now" strategy the GM already chose. Maybe you can try and undo some of the damage already done and start looking at a new contention window. But sitting back and doing nothing this year really doesn't seem like a viable option to me if you want to avoid just wasting years.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 10, 2023 at 2:44 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dr_Invictus</b></div><div>I think the value is fair for Reinhart, but I doubt they would accept because it leaves them too weak down the middle. I like the idea of giving huberdeau his old linemate though. He certainly needs it.

Calgary would give their 2024 1st, not 2023.</div></div>

I think the impetus for making a Reinhart proposal here is that Frank Seravalli has reported that FLA might try to move either of Bennett or Reinhart to recoup some of the significant amount of draft capital they've given up recently. No one in Florida thought they would be struggling to make playoffs this year, but it also seems like in making the Matthew Tkachuk trade they recognized they would have less urgency to win right away and kind of reset their intended competitive window.

Reinhart only has one year remaining on his $6.5M contract after this season, and they only gave up the 2022 28th overall pick and Devon Levi to get him. So it's possible if they look like a non-playoff team come TDL, they might think he's more valuable as a trade chip than as a guy who would be a pending UFA next year.

All that said, I still don't think they move him. Not many teams have the ability to add $6.5M right now, and I imagine FLA has no desire to retain any money. The teams that can afford him aren't going to be the ones giving up their early draft picks.

Also think Calgary is going to have to give up the 2023 1st. Their hands are pretty much tied on moving the 2024 1st or FLAs 2025 1st right now given the absurd laundry list of conditions currently attached to those picks.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 10, 2023 at 2:06 p.m.
Thread: deadline
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2022 at 1:54 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 24, 2022 at 11:50 a.m.
Thread: Timo Max
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dr_Invictus</b></div><div>No, just no.... Why would Calgary trade Coranato for Meier who is a pending RFA with a 10MM QO? If Meier accepts his QO Calgary gets him for 1 year and he walks to FA. I'd rather have Coronato on an ELC for 3 years than Meir for 1... Not to mention the 1st and Mangiapane. San Jose wins this easily.</div></div>

CGY 100% should be willing to move Coronato for Meier. Ideally you'd try and make the trade without including him, but you have to at least be willing to include Coronato for a guy like Meier.

Matt Coronato is just a prospect who is not even signed yet (top unsigned college prospect playing out of Harvard----I think I've seen this film before, and I didn't like the ending). There is a chance he ends up being a better player than Meier, sure, but its not a good chance. And the chances that he ends up being better than Meier *during the Flames very limited contention window* are basically non-existent. We should have learned our lesson about overvaluing prospects in the Valimaki/Stone debacle.

Yes, Timo Meier has a $10M QO. That doesn't mean he has to get $10M. You could agree to a long term extension at a different number. You could take him to team elected arbitration in the 1st window in lieu of making the qualifying offer. You could trade his rights or do a sign and trade like we literally just did with Matthew Tkachuk (people were saying the same things about his QO before last year, too). You could just give him the $10M. Or you can even just let him walk if you really needed to (which wouldn't happen). But the fact he is a pending RFA is a good thing---team control, even with the $10MQO---is far better than no team control. And him being a pending RFA means you can convince SJ to eat money for this year. There are options, and it's a much better idea than going for a pure rental (like Patrick Kane, who many are hoping for in Flames Nation).

If you are willing to give up Coronato to convince SJ to eat 50%, you get a bona fide beast in Timo Meier for only the equivalent of $3M in a year when the Calgary Flames need to be all-in. Then you get team control and options beyond that. Timo Meier is a great player----you find the money elsewhere to fit him in for next year and beyond.

Matt Coronato is a very good prospect. He's far from a guarantee. He's not even a guarantee to be signed. And he may be able to play in the NHL next year. But his "prime" does not really fit the Flames current window. I don't care as much about having him cheap for 3 years if the Flames only have this year and next year in their legit contention window. Meier helps them win more than Coronato does.

That said, no chance I'm including Mangiapane to that deal. The point is to add a seriously missing piece to your roster. Not subtract from it at the same time. Coronato, the 1st, and some smaller pieces for Meier with $ retained makes a ton of sense to me.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 6, 2022 at 2:38 p.m.
There may not be anyone available this year of a higher profile than Kane, but I think there should be players available who will be better fits than Kane. I don't see a fit here for him.

Patrick Kane at 33 years old is still one of the best passers and playmakers in the game. When the puck is on his stick on the other team's side of the ice, something good is probably going to happen.

He is also quite simply atrocious defensively. One of the worst defensive forwards in the NHL. When the puck isn't on his stick, he is very easy to play against. For many teams, that's fine. The offense outweighs the defensive faults. I don't see that for the CGY Flames.

The Flames team identity is *supposed* to be a team that is very hard to play against, forechecks hard, wears you down, and generates high shot volumes. Right now, the Flames are not playing at all into that identity. The Flames right now are a mess defensively and very easy to play against. Patrick Kane would add some much needed offence, sure. He also doesn't fit the identity of this team at all and would exacerbate their already baffling defensive woes.

Not to mention---right now 70% of Kane's production is coming on the Powerplay. The PP isn't great, but think 5v5 needs help far more than the PP1 does right now.

On top of all that, Kane has full control over where he gets traded and when. He's got full No-Move protections. If he doesn't want to go to the CGY, he's not going. If he doesn't want to go anywhere until TDL, he's not. He's likely a pure rental you might not even be able to add, and if you do it could only be for a couple months.

I think there will be players available throughout the year that will be (a) better stylistic fits than P. Kane, (b) cheaper to add, both in terms of acquisition cost and in terms of cap hits, (c) will be made available before Kane will be, and (d) might not be pure rentals.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 6, 2022 at 2:35 p.m.
Thread: Patty
There may not be anyone available this year of a higher profile than Kane, but I think there should be players available who will be better fits than Kane. I don't see a fit here for him.

Patrick Kane at 33 years old is still one of the best passers and playmakers in the game. When the puck is on his stick on the other team's side of the ice, something good is probably going to happen.

He is also quite simply atrocious defensively. One of the worst defensive forwards in the NHL. When the puck isn't on his stick, he is very easy to play against. For many teams, that's fine. The offense outweighs the defensive faults. I don't see that for the CGY Flames.

The Flames team identity is *supposed* to be a team that is very hard to play against, forechecks hard, wears you down, and generates high shot volumes. Right now, the Flames are not playing at all into that identity. The Flames right now are a mess defensively and very easy to play against. Patrick Kane would add some much needed offence, sure. He also doesn't fit the identity of this team at all and would exacerbate their already baffling defensive woes.

Not to mention---right now 70% of Kane's production is coming on the Powerplay. The PP isn't great, but think 5v5 needs help far more than the PP1 does right now.

On top of all that, Kane has full control over where he gets traded and when. He's got full No-Move protections. If he doesn't want to go to the CGY, he's not going. If he doesn't want to go anywhere until TDL, he's not. He's likely a pure rental you might not even be able to add, and if you do it could only be for a couple months.

I think there will be players available throughout the year that will be (a) better stylistic fits than P. Kane, (b) cheaper to add, both in terms of acquisition cost and in terms of cap hits, (c) will be made available before Kane will be, and (d) might not be pure rentals.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 2, 2022 at 8:01 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 2, 2022 at 7:46 p.m.
Thread: Matty
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 30, 2022 at 4:46 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Do you not realize Calgary's cap crunch next year? Meier will be getting at minimum 7.5M next season and could easily demand higher due to his QO. Between Huberdeau, Weegar, and Vladar Calgary is already handing out just over 6M in raises alone with Lucic (5.25M) being the only relevant cap hit coming off the books. So how exactly do you fit Meier in there? You can't.

Valimaki is a poor example and we gave up on him for even poorer reasons. When the Mark Stone trade occurred he was viewed as a highly valued prospect and Calgary couldn't afford to extend Stone. Valimaki is now playing great in Arizona and is proving how we screwed up.

As for Wolf, maybe go and look up the list of goalies that put up his kind of numbers in their D+3 AHL rookie year in the last decade. Here's a hint, between them there are 2 cup rings, 1 Vezina winner, 1 Jennings, and 3 Vezina finalists (including the win). Only one of those 5 goalies has not panned out as a full time starter in the NHL.

I think if Calgary wants to add a Meier type player Mantha is a much more realistic target unless the plan is to pay rental price on Meier only.</div></div>

But the point is that---even with a cap crunch---Meier is a better player than most of the other guys on the roster, many of whom should be easily movable if you have to. Lucic's money comes off, so we're not stuck with another Monahan situation where we'd have to pay to clear room.

For example, paying $3.25M to Zadorov on the 3rd pairing is a luxury, not a necessity. Paying Meier would be more important.

If the cap does go up the reported $4M, and you dump Zadorov, you've got $8.54M to fill out your roster for next year. Dump Toffoli, and now you've got $12.8M, with 5-6 spots to fill. You could easily give Meier something in the $8.5M range and fill out your roster with cheap or young guys like Pelletier, Phillips, Ritchie, Stone etc.

Is it ideal---no. But wanting to keep guys like Toffoli or Zadorov over a guy like Meier is a flat out stupid reason for not being willing to make the trade.

Your argument for Valimaki makes no sense. The lesson to be learned is overvaluing prospects based on what they *might* become without accounting for all of the other possible outcomes and probabilities. Yes, it was possible Valimaki would become a player more valuable than Mark Stone would have been. But it was far more likely he wouldn't be. We vastly overvalued him. You can make up whatever excuses you want to to justify it. But all of the reporting at the time of the trade was consistent----we were confident we could get an extension done with stone, but the deal breaker was that we didn't want to give up Valimaki. Feel free to look up all of the reporting from that day from Friedman, Steinberg, Leslie etc.

As for Wolf, if you're relying on raw save percentage to project what he's going to be at the NHL level, you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. Comparing him to Vezina winners is absolutely ridiculous. There are still a ton of question marks about what he'll be in the NHL, and when. Great prospect, for sure. Far from untouchable, especially for a guy like Timo Meier. Nobody else in the league is valuing Wolf anywhere close to the level Flames fans are who are looking at nothing but raw save percentage, which is a horrible determinant of talent or future NHL success.

Meier would be a perfect addition. Yes, things would get uncomfortable with the cap for next year, but that was always going to be the case, and the cap is not impossible. Plus the cap is expected to keep going up significantly, so it really only causes heart burn for that one year. And makes the team better.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 28, 2022 at 1:19 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Wolf is not available. He will not be involved in that trade. Also Calgary will have 6M cap space at the TDL so Lucic will not need to be involved at all. Lastly there is zero possibility that Calgary can fit Meier in with an extension so he is a rental at the end of the day</div></div>

Don't agree.

Meier would immediately become the Flames 3rd best forward. You find places elsewhere with less important players to make the money work if you have to (Zadorov, Toffoli etc.). And if the cap does end up going up $4M as reported last week, it could be very doable. Meier is exactly the type of player this Flames team should be going for---perfectly fits their identity and window.

And you'd prefer to do a deal that doesn't involve Wolf, but Wolf should absolutely not be untouchable. Especially in a deal for a guy like Meier. Still a ton of uncertainty about what Wolf will be at the NHL level and when he might get there. The window to win is now and as good as Wolf is, he probably doesn't become an NHL starter any time close to that window. Should have learned our lessons about over-valuing prospects when we refused to move Valimaki for Mark Stone.

I think Coronato is the prospect that would go, though, if we're talking Meier. Along with a 2023 1st. And some other pieces on top of that.

Agree that if you wait you don't need to included Looch. But also think you don't want to wait until TDL if you're CGY (but that's kind of out of their control). That said, think the play there would be to pay more to convince SJ to eat money rather than moving bodies out.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 27, 2022 at 3:08 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 22, 2022 at 1:35 a.m.
Thread: Konex