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chestersmu

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Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 17, 2020 at 3:48 p.m.
Thread: Arizona Kessel and Nashville Domi Trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Del_</b></div><div>Kessel-Alzner is different.

I ran numbers at $1.55M retention because that's 33% and makes easy math.

AZ adds an additional million (and some change) this year in real dollars, but saves $4.33M (-Poehling's next contract) due next year if they buy Alzner out. And there's another year at $769k due to the buyout, but that's small change compared to year two savings. They add Poehling, and a couple picks.

Not sure it's interesting enough for them to eat an additional million this year when it hurts the most, but undeniably saves them money and gets them a decent young bottom six C and picks.

Habs add a decent, but not great winger, and dump Alzner for expendable pieces.

It's a little crazy, but maybe?</div></div>

I'll admit I'm not certain how salary retention works in relation to the real dollars side. Alzner already recieved his bonus and will be owed 1.5 Million in salary for the next season. Hence I assumed that if the Habs were to retained 1.5 Million in salary it would effective mean that Arizona would not be on the hook for any real dollars as the Habs would be paying it (as the bonus is already cashed). I am also unsure as to if the Habs would then be on the hook for x amount of the buyout, which would further reduce Arizona's exposure.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 17, 2020 at 12:55 p.m.
Thread: Arizona Kessel and Nashville Domi Trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>villenash</b></div><div>NSH isn't trading Tolvanen. And why does NSH need <em>another</em> top 6 center? Johansen, Duchene, Turris, Bonino, and then they have Jarnkrok, Sissons, Blackwell (if signed), Trenin, Tomasino, Pitlick as all players that can play center and will be, or have a shot at, starting in NSH next season.

NSH is not the team to trade Domi to as he would not play be playing center and that seems to be important to him.

And really, Domi is a ~50 point player with one outlier season.</div></div>

Duchene is a winger, Turris is toast. Bonino is good, but doesn't have the offense to be counted on as a 2nd line center. Jarnkrok is the same as Bonino in that regard, Sissons/blackwell/trenin is not even close to Domi, Tomasino is probably 3 years away at best let alone be producive.

So to answer your question which I feel you kind of did yourself when you made that list, yes, Nashville does need another top 6 center.

Domi put up 50+ points as a rookie and then ended up on the wing for 2 seasons where he struggled, as he did this year. Came to Montreal and immediately put up 70+. Used as a center with top 6 quality wingers, I don't think he's stuck as a perennial 50 point guy but is someone who can push 60+ every year.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 17, 2020 at 12:26 p.m.
Thread: Arizona Kessel and Nashville Domi Trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Nik_SH</b></div><div>Huge overpay for Domi. He isn't worth 11th overall in very good draft.
Also NSH will not trade their best(ok, one of the top 2) prospect and 1st round pick in 2020.</div></div>

I disagree with the 11th overall being an overpay but could agree that Nashville may not move Tolvanen. That said, Tolvanen has struggles professionally in North America and I wouldn't be shocked if Nashville moved him and the 11th (either together or seperately) to get immediate help. I also can't help but think that while Tolvanen is still a good prospect, and yes, one of Nashville's best, he's no longer seen as a can't miss blue chip prospect that he was 2 years ago.

Domi meanwhile is 1 year removed from a 70 point season and paced for 50 this year despite time on the wing where he struggles and a lack of a supporting cast. I think he has value of a mid 1st and a prospect if Montreal were to go the futures route vs a 1 for 1ish hockey trade.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 24, 2020 at 9:32 a.m.
Thread: OEL trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>Yeah, Byron doesn't carry tons of value, Mete is nice, but its really just Mete and a 1st for a number 1 dman, which isn't enough. I would expect at least MTL 2nd added, but ideally Yotes would ask for Armia or Drouin instead of Byron</div></div>

I could see a number of mini negotiations taking place around this deal.

1st would be roster player - Drouin is probably at the top, but I think discussions around Byron, Mete, Kulak, maybe even Danault. I don't think the Habs would have interest in moving Danault but I wouldn't be shocked if it was at minimum discussed.

From OP's deal, Hillis as the prospect does not get it done. I think a realistic target is Poehling. 1st round petigree, not looking like he's really going to move up Montreals depth chart, and is the typical change of scenery 1st round pick we see included in these trades. I think Caulfield gets talked about, and while I doubt Montreal really wants to, depending on the other pieces I think he could be had to make this deal work. Ylonen and all the RD prospects probably also get talked about.

Draft Picks - 1st rounder? Sure. But if we give up Drouin or Caufield I don't see it. 2x 2nds? Sure. Just comes down to what pieces are in the first half of the trade.

Alzner - 2 years left with 6.5 million owning total. I wonder if Arizona insisted on Caufield per say, if the Habs would push to have Alzner included. Just my own ramblings here.

Trades I could see:

Drouin
Poehling
2x 2020 2nds

Bryon/Mete/Kulak
Poehling
2020 1st
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 18, 2019 at 11:31 a.m.
Thread: 2020-2021 cant wait Tatar to NSH
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>d4rk1ll4</b></div><div>Well, all those predictions were about an 82-game-season. Drouin and Domi were 23 years old this year. I don't know why it would be unrealistic to see them improving of some points. You talk about Lehkonen last two seasons without saying he got 18 goals the season before and that he broke a playoffs goal record in the SHL. This Lehkonen-Poehling-Suzuki will be extremely effective on defense and offense. They are 3rd line, but it's only because there are better offensive players on the top 6. They will have a lot of icetime, don't worry. Poehling scored 4 goals in 1 game with Deslauriers and Shaw on the 4th. He will score 20 goals with better players and more icetime. Armia maybe never scored 15 goals, but he scored 13 goals in 57 Games last year (equals to 18,7 goals) and he just enters in his prime. Of course, it will be difficult to get this on the 4th, but he plays with good players. I don't know if you looked at Byron's game, but he is not really better on top 6 than he is on bottom 6. He scores around 20 goals anyway because of his speed. Plus, he needs to play less than 15 minutes to be really effective. If you take Weal numbers with MTL and you put it on 82 Games, that gives 51 points. I say he will have 20 points. Now, for Caufield, it's tough to guess what he'll get, but he is a goal-per-game in junior, he destroyed Matthews record of goals and tied Ovechkin... It is much harder to make it in the NHL, but Matthews got 40 goals at 18 years old, so maybe Caufield can do it at 19. It's still a guess, but it's not unrealistic, if you think he will play with KK and Domi.</div></div>

It's unrealistic that every single player continues to improve, and will have career years. Domi, career high shooting % is unlikely to be repeated. I don't think he has a good enough shot to be a consistent 30 goal threat and it's not his MO anyways. He's a playmaker whose linemates traditionally score more goals than expected.

I don't care what Lehkonen did 4 years ago in the SHL, or 3 years ago getting top line minutes on a garbage hockey team. 2 years in a row now he's shown to be an average to below average NHL scorer. 20 is unrealistic from the 3rd line with little to no powerplay time. Barring Tampa, who had one of the best teams in NHL history last season, 3rd lines just don't put up the kind of numbers that you are projecting.

Armia had a career year last year, not only in terms of goals and pace, but also minutes played. To expect him to replicate that but with significantly less minutes is ridiculous. Same goes for Byron, yes he can be effective on the 4th line, but he's not going to replicate his scoring with 25% less ice time.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 18, 2019 at 8:10 a.m.
Thread: 2020-2021 cant wait Tatar to NSH
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>d4rk1ll4</b></div><div>I like this line-up.
Domi (30G 40A) - KK (20G 50A) - Caufield (40G 30A)
Drouin (25G 35A) - Danault (15G 35A) - Gallagher (30 - 25)
Lehkonen (20G 25A) - Poehling (20G 25A) - Suzuki (20G 25A)
Byron (20G 15A) - Weal (10G - 10A) - Armia (15G - 20A)</div></div>

This 12 player roster puts up 265 goals. Our team was 14th last year with 246 goals...total. We are talking about a team that would score 310+ goals, a total only beaten by Tampa this year. I think this is a tad unrealistic to say the least. Drouin's scored 21 goals only once let alone 25, Domi's never gotten 30, Armia's never scored 15, let alone doing so from the 4th line, Byron is capable of 20, but that's with top 6/middle 6 ice time, Lehkonen has never scored 20 and is coming off back to back 11 and 12 goal seasons and the Caufield has to score 40 as a rookie.

This is asking... a lot.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 20, 2019 at 11:24 a.m.
Thread: Sekara
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Poehling</b></div><div>Carolina decline, but if they dont, nice pick for MTL. I'll prefer MTL go after Scandella who will be much cheaper than Sekera, MTL wont trade a 2nd rounder for Sekera. Kulak can play on the 2nd or 3rd pairing</div></div>

re Carolina: You're probably right. But Fleury has only gotten into 20 game this year and will have Bean pushing him. Figure both him and Hudon are change of scenery depth lotto tickets.

re Scandella vs Sekera: I'm not sure he'd cost less than Sekera. Buffalo are pretty cap comfortable, he's not paid a ton, and he's in the division. I'm just not sure Buffalo would be as open to moving him as Edmonton would be with Sekera. The 2nd round pick is nice, but if it's Columbus' pick it's manageable, fills a major hole, and if he can even play 60 games we probably are comfortably a playoff team.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 13, 2018 at 8:26 a.m.
Thread: What about this
With the exception of Schlemko, these trades all skew heavily to Montreal. Pittsburgh has no reason to trade a 24 year old middle pair defender for a fringe NHL prospect and a 2nd round pick. If they shopped Maata they are getting legit talent back, not question marks. Certainly not a 13th forward at risk of getting waived this week from a team universally expected to be lottery fodder.

RNH has more value than Drouin, but it'll concede that I think it's close. But Centers will always out value a winger. And with RNH you get a much more complete package. 20+ goals, plays center, solid defensively. Hudon for Puljujarvi is laughable. Would you trade a 20 year old player with top 5 overall pedigree for Hudon? No, you'd hold onto him in hopes that he continues to develop toward that ceiling you gave him on draft day. Hudon doesn't move the needle for Edmonton when it comes to Puljujarvi.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 29, 2018 at 9:04 a.m.
Thread: Opening Night
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bhavikp27</b></div><div>Why would Habs take Horton's contract and Leafs take Benn to give up Kapanen. Bad trade (Pacioretty) and Byron and Shaw will be on IR since they'll be back in a month or so.</div></div>

Habs take on Horton's contract to get Kapanen. Habs have a lack of right shooting forwards, and he has enough upside that he would challenge Scherbak for the 2RW role. Leafs meanwhile, make a similar trade to the Blackhawks when they shed Bickell's contract. I used that trade as the basis of this trade. Horton needs to be on the roster to start the season before he can go on the IR, and the leafs are at a stage now where they could use the cap flexibility. More so for next year, but if they move him now they confidently re-sign their RFA's. Benn is just a similar toss in that we see so frequently in these types of trades. He's a depth defencemen whose versatility allows him to play either side. If he can't hold a roster spot, almost his entire cap hit can be buried. It's not the end of the world if we keep him until the deadline, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him as a toss in to a deal either.

Zacha, despite his poor offensive season, has positive advanced stats. He also finished last season with a 40 point pace. Not overly noteworthy, but trending in the right direction for a player who is only 21. If he can make that next step, there is potential there to be a solid 2C on a team that, despite some prospect depth, is still full of question marks. He also a 6'3 center and a good skater. A good combination for us.

Byron and Shaw will be back, but who will be out by then? Most likely we'll have at least one other injury. Deslauriers can be demoted and it's not going to be the end of the world if he gets claimed. Byron is a UFA and will likely be traded at some point this season. De La Rose has never shown the consistency to be more than a 3rd liner at best, more likely a 4th line center. If by adding Kapanen and Zacha we lose depth players with limited upside than so be it.