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feelgood77

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Apr. 26, 2023
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New Jersey Devils
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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 16, 2023 at 5:26 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 16, 2023 at 5:14 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 16, 2023 at 4:41 p.m.
Thread: Devs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NJDevils1317</b></div><div>I feel Ross Colton is going to be a constant story until something happens there. It's Johnny Hockey super-lite, except that he WAS a Devils fan beyond just being from NJ (and a far lesser impact player). TB may have a hard time signing him, but I could see the Devils sending cheaper pieces to give TB depth, I just don't think Tyce would be of much value, although I could see Smith having something. Maybe Boqvist as an upgrade on Tyce. That will be fun to watch as it would be a fun story and he does fit a need. It'll be a lot of haggling with TB fans holding out for more.</div></div>

That's all fans on this site isn't it ;) Even if he wasn't from NJ I think this makes a lot of sense from a needs perspective (playoff experience, depth scoring, etc) plus Tampa basically has to trade him or someone else given their cap situation and I don't think they'd trade Jeannot given the sunken cost fallacy of how much they traded out for him. Tampa has no leverage here but yeah I think they'd want league min contracts back. Those Yegor+ for Colton trades don't make any sense cap-wise.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 13, 2023 at 2:04 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 5, 2023 at 6:42 p.m.
Thread: 23-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pretzelcoatl</b></div><div>Faceoffs are statistically negligible. We only need one faceoff guy and that's McLeod. If we need a PK/PP2 guy, we can just keep Yegor. Tatar is better than Haula by every important metric, and the Tatar Hischier Mercer line was one of the most statistically dominant in the league.</div></div>

Haula has played like 5 more minutes per game over Tatar during the playoffs. Plus, we shouldn't pull a rangers and we should actually give Holtz an opportunity to play on either Jack or Nico's wing in the top 6. Again, I would love to bring Tatar back as well, especially if it's a 1 year deal (no need for the Duclair trade), but I think the Devils are better off going for more versatility. TLDR: Tatar is a better top six player, but Haula is a better third liner, and the Devils already have a very strong top 6 especially assuming that Holtz can take that next step.

Edit: Also respectfully disagree on the Faceoffs being negligible take, especially on special teams (which Haula does both).
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 5, 2023 at 5:43 p.m.
Thread: 23-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pretzelcoatl</b></div><div>Way too much for Haula, probably not enough for Meier. I'd rather play Walsh than Schenn, and Tatar than Duclair</div></div>

Nah, Haula has been really solid, saw some advanced stat projections that had him at like ~4.1M and he's been playing 19min/game this playoffs.

Maybe it's not enough for Meier, but I believe in Fitz to get a palatable deal done with an 8th year.

Schenn &gt; Walsh just because we already have competent offensive D men, and the D core would have 3 1st/2nd year players with Walsh which would not be ideal for a playoff team.

Duclair &gt; Tatar also imo because even though Tatar has played well, he'd require a multi-year contract with around the same cap hit. This would force the Devs to likely give Dawson a bridge deal instead of signing him long term deal which is more important.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26, 2023 at 10:47 p.m.
Thread: Devils go realistically bold
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>I like Saros and appreciate his workhorse resume. A 60-start goalie often gets underrated with fans these days. But the cost is too high here. First, we would regret giving up Holtz. He has elite scoring ability…and historically goal-scorers don’t develop progressively. I don’t expect a straight line development…it will be big step changes. And probably goals coming in clumps. Foote is our most likely in-house replacement for Wood…and this year has rounded out his game (even on PK) up in Utica. And Casey was one of the best Freshmen in NCAA this year.

As for the other moves. Duclair would be nice pick-up. The Panthers need to add a dman or two, so would probably be looking for more of a hockey trade. Since we are already losing two of our top-4 by TOI in free agency this summer, and gave away two close-to-NHL dmen in Meier deal, I don’t think we would give away any NHL-ready dmen. So probably not a match for them.

I love Rico and think he could slide into Haula’s role easily. I’d prefer to keep Sharangovich as I think l, over the long-term, he could develop into nice two-way 3C with plus defense and 20-goal offense. So I would probably recommend extending Haula, keeping Sharangovich. Unless Anaheim wants Clarke, Thompson or similar player from off our roster.</div></div>

I'd agree with most of what you're saying, and if I did an offseason mock without the Saros trade it would look pretty similar.

I'm still a Holtz believer and obviously management is too given how they executed the Meier trade even with his connection to Eklund (seriously still don't know how they did that). They have to let him play in the top 6 next year and I can see him taking Tatar's ice time hopefully.

I also like Foote on the 4th line as a more versatile 4th liner compared to Wood. Thought he looked good this season and maybe he could even have a net front role on the PP at some point.

Where I'm a bit different is on Casey and Sharangovich. I'd agree he's an absolute stud (2nd in pts among freshmen D) but I just don't see how he gets into the lineup moving forward. The right side already has Dougie and Marino long term with Nemec expected to take that last spot. Maybe we trade out Marino eventually, but we'll (hopefully) already 2 great offensive D-men in Dougie and Hughes and I don't know if Casey would be a suitable replacement for Marino who's our top line shutdown guy. I'm glad we drafted BPA but I could see him being a key trade piece during the devil's window.

As for Sharangovich, I'd love for him to develop into that 3C but he really needs to get better at faceoffs as part of his development, especially if he's a two way guy matching up against top lines. He was less than 1/3 this season and has never been over 40% (we can't let for example Zibanejad starting with the puck 2/3 times). I think Nico, Haula, and Mcleod (even Lazar now) being good at faceoffs is an underrated reason for the team's success this season. This also happens to be the area I think Jack needs to develop the most in so that he doesn't need a faceoff guy on his line and he can have more offensively gifted linemates.

As for the other trades, I think what you said makes some sense. The luxury of the devils right now is that they have prospects who could potentially fill those roles and it's up to management to decide either way.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26, 2023 at 9:41 p.m.
Thread: Devils go realistically bold
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NJDevils1317</b></div><div>Setting Jeannot up as the sample trade is all I neded to read there. The widely panned trade by everyone shouldn't be the bar. That'll be the new "Chiarot got a 1st!!" we have to live with from Habs fans.</div></div>

I'm a devils fan as well but I didn't want to be biased. If we had Saros play instead of VV this past season, given that VV played 52 games the difference in expected goals would come out to 31.2 (and Saros would likely play even more games). I don't see how we could add 31+ goals worth of production any other way, especially since the top 6 is already stacked. Maybe they'd take someone like Clarke instead of Holtz but I honestly don't think the value proposition is that outlandish.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26, 2023 at 7:32 p.m.
Thread: Devils go realistically bold
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Both can be true....Sharangovich is probably worth a year of Henrique (maybe more)....and Ducks likely opt for more futures/picks type of return.

I'd guess 2nd plus Clarke or Filmon type of deal</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GiggywithGibby</b></div><div>You think Henrique with 50% retention for the entire season, plus a pick, is worth Sharangovich and a bottom pairing defenseman?

Yeah man, Anaheim is going to pass. We expect a 2nd and a good not great prospect for him at the TDL with retention when it costs us basically no real world money, if you want him for the whole season with retention, you will need a better offer.</div></div>

I also don't think Anaheim is in a Chicago/Arizona type of rebuild -- more akin to where Columbus/Detroit/Montreal are, where a lot of the young core is already playing in the NHL. Sharangovich is a year younger than Troy Terry and it remains to be seen how Gibson carries his play into his 30s. Especially if Anaheim lands Bedard or even any of the top 4, I think they'll be too good to be in the lottery sweepstakes going forward and thus it makes more sense to surround him with NHL talent over getting draft picks outside the 1st round.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26, 2023 at 7:15 p.m.
Thread: Devils go realistically bold
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>I agree. There is too much risk in goalies and the window (2 years) is too short. If we were getting him for four years, maybe. But to make worthwhile we would have to extend him (likely at $7m+ well into his 30s). Not to mention...I cannot recall a single goalie that has ever returned this much in one trade....(maybe Curtis Joseph, who had 3 years on his deal, and returned two mid-1sts).</div></div>

Maybe a bit too much, but I don't see NSH trading him unless it's a very significant haul if they're even willing to consider it. I think we're a bit jaded by the Bernier and Crawford acquisitions but Saros has played 67 and 64 games these past two seasons and wouldn't need to play that much on a better devils team with Schmid. Per moneypuck he had 0.62 more expected goal saved per 60 above Vanacek but hey, I'm 95% certain this won't come to fruition but it would be fun to see. Will be interesting to see who plays more out of Schmid and VV next season.

Curious what you think of the non-goalie related moves?
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26, 2023 at 6:44 p.m.
Thread: Devils go realistically bold
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GiggywithGibby</b></div><div>Okay, per your statement, Shar is worth a 2nd. We expect to get a 2nd and a good prospect for Rico, with retention, at the TDL. If you want us to foot the bill for the entire season, it costs more, because we are paying half of Rico's salary for the whole season instead of the last 3-4 weeks. That's a few million bucks difference in real money, which adds cost. Plus you are asking for a pick, and for us to take an ancient bottom pairing defenseman as well.

Using Sharangovich (2nd) and a good (not great, talking B level here) prospect as the base for Rico, add value to compensate for the extra ~2.3-2.6 million we will be spending for him to play for your team the entire season.</div></div>

Henrique has literally played 45, 58, and 62 games the past three seasons. If I'm Verbeek I'm making the safer play in the offseason to get assets rather than risking him being injured at the TDL (as has been the case) and getting nothing.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26, 2023 at 6:30 p.m.
Thread: Devils go realistically bold
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GiggywithGibby</b></div><div>You think Henrique with 50% retention for the entire season, plus a pick, is worth Sharangovich and a bottom pairing defenseman?

Yeah man, Anaheim is going to pass. We expect a 2nd and a good not great prospect for him at the TDL with retention when it costs us basically no real world money, if you want him for the whole season with retention, you will need a better offer.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GeneralLandro</b></div><div>I undoubtedly second this</div></div>

I respectfully disagree. Sharangovich would yield a second rounder if the devils were to trade him for picks no doubt in my mind. If you guys wanted to flip him for a second that's your call but he had 24 goals in 76 games actually playing consistent minutes last year, not to mention top PK time on a good PK (one of the few bright spots last year). This year he struggled to find ice time with Haula, Meier, and Palat being added to the forward core. He's way younger than Henrique and is a RFA. You guys signed Strome and Vatrano last offseason and weren't supposed to be this bad this year (I thought you guys would be like 80 pts this season), so I think Verbeek trading for a 24 year old instead of picks is totally reasonable.