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imawesome

I want Gourde back
Member Since
Jun. 16, 2018
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 5 at 8:57 p.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsJan. 26 at 12:41 p.m.
Thread: Philadelphia Flyers signed Owen Tippett (8 Years / $6,200,000 AAV)
The deal has risk, but without that you weren't getting this level of upside.

Tippett is 24, so the 8 year term is a benefit in a rising cap environment, not a negative. At $6.2M you don't need Tippett to be a superstar for this deal to be solid, you just need him to be an adequate top 6 winger. Even if he only tops out at what he's shown this year, the deal likely ages well simply with a rising cap, and if he has the ability to take a step, there is a good chance for substantial surplus value.

In terms of team fit, Philly is in the phase where taking a few of these types of risks to lock in some certainty is a good strategy, so all around I like this deal for Philly. I mean there is risk, but that is how you get value, taking measured risks where the upside is just simply bigger than the downside. If you are good at evaluating those, you will gain more value than you lose by a significant margin, and this looks like a smart bet.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 19 at 12:02 a.m.
Thread: BLOW IT UP jk jk for fun
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>imawesome</b></div><div>I would disagree with that. This is an overpay for basically any player but Kucherov definitely has significantly higher trade value than Hughes. He's <strong>at worst</strong> a top 5 player in the league, and with the contracts being thrown around these days getting that for less than 10M per year is incredible. I don't think he really fits New Jersey's timeline though and am certainly not suggesting New Jersey would or should do this trade</div></div>

My (projected) valuation of Kucherov:

15 million
15 million
14 million
12 million
Total Value: 56 million
Total Cost: 38 million
Surplus value: 18 million

Hughes (projected) valuation
5 million
8 million
10 million
11 million
11.5 million
12 million

-assuming just a 4 year deal x 6 million to walk him to UFA (he likely gets even more of a steal contract on an 8 year deal that he almost certainly signs)

Total Value: 57.5 million
Total cost: 26 million
Surplus Value: 31.5 million

The value of stud ELCs is difficult to beat.