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jfalstaff

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Toronto Maple Leafs
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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 3, 2019 at 3:53 p.m.
Thread: Jefflers pegged Marner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>I'd prefer Pesce to Hamilton. Then you could pay Johnsson something close to what he's worth.</div></div>

CAR values Pesce more, I thought.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>If Johnsson is eligible for offer sheet....he gets better than that . Even arbitration,, likely better.</div></div>

I trust in Mirtle. 24/25 year olds who have ~60 NHL games in a top-6 role don't get multiyear contracts over $2m. Bring on the arbitrator.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>there's plenty of question about that.</div></div>

There is none. No player of Marner's age, playing his position, and with his record has ever made over 11% of the cap on his second contract. That's the fair market value.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 3, 2019 at 11:23 a.m.
Thread: Marners Trade Value
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ryminister_27</b></div><div>That's a terrible trade for Toronto. The main piece coming back has to be a young top 4 right handed d-man with team control, not a rental d-man. Then most likely a 2nd to top prospect that's close to making the NHL roster, and some picks. I doubt Kaprizov gets moved, I wouldn't target him anyways. If it's Minnesota, Dumba is the starting point no matter what. if he's not in the deal, Dubas hangs up and doesn't take a call from Minnsota again.

:mapleleafs
Matt Dumba
Jordan Greenway or Luke Kunin (preferably Greenway)
Minnesota 2020 1st round pick (top 5 protected)
Conor Dewar (or similar C+ prospect)
Minnesota 2021 5th round pick
</div></div>

I went with a four-quarters-for-a-dollar type deal that (I thought) approximated the 4 1sts compensation (according to the MIN fan, I undervalued Kaprizov and Spurgeon, which is why I posted the roster).

Dumba fits the more conventional half-dollar-or-more-for-a-dollar trade. I just wonder whether a team without an abundance of young defensemen would make such a move (e.g. Leafs missed Anaheim selling off theirs), but it's a probably the first question to ask: which defensemen in the league would the Leafs target if they were forced into trading Marner and the trade was built around 2 core pieces. Dumba... Trouba? Parayko? Slavin? Which if their possible trade partners would be especially motivated (weak offense) and able (cap space) to make such a move for Marner?
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 30, 2019 at 7:39 p.m.
Thread: Greedy Mitchy
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>capsin9</b></div><div>Okay let’s my this long story short. How do you justify over paying Matthews nylander and Tavares (ufa easier to justify imo) but not overpaying marner. The kid has done nothing but play hard and produce great numbers. He’s also a Toronto kid why are you punishing him or giving him”fair” pay but overpaying everyone else? Seems unfair. Now I don’t condone the idea that he’s worth 11m but how do you justify paying others more with similar results .....</div></div>

The answer is... you <em>don't have to justify it</em>?

How do you justify isn't the right question at all.

Instead, it's this: Which of the big three RFAs would really be attractive to teams looking to make a big offer sheet push? It's just Matthews and Marner. Matthews is signed. If Marner's offered something crazy -- but apparently something he's looking for, so perhaps he'd sign -- then the question isn't really if he "deserves" the contract but if the team could find a use for the 4 firsts and $11m in cap space such that they exceed the value of an $11m Marner. Ryminister had it exactly right imo: 4 firsts (which can get you depth, be traded for upgrades) + an $8m winger + a good defenseman is &gt; Marner.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 1, 2019 at 2:45 p.m.
Thread: Realistic 2nd contracts plus Trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonesryan</b></div><div>You make no sense for the Marner contract. You gave him $9.16M on a 5 year deal but on a 3 year deal you're saying give him between $8.5-$9M? The whole point of lowering the years of a contract is to lower the cap hit. On a 3 year deal, I think it'd be settled around $8M. That kinda contract is more than fair because it doesn't but out any UFA years which significantly lowers the cap hit. $8.5M would be on the very high end on a bridge deal. No player has ever gotten that much on a bridge deal so it's more than fair and helps the cap situation</div></div>

Yes, that's the "point" of a bridge deal from management's perspective. I don't see Marner or his team seeing it that way. In the interests of being "realistic," I think it makes sense to look at how the Matthews and Nylander contracts worked out if we're trying to anticipate how Marner's will be resolved. All signs are that Marner's camp won't go down to number that's too far off from Matthews's, regardless of whether there are no UFA years bought out. And, beyond the Leafs' very recent history, there really aren't very many top-tier talents discounting their services. Talents of Marner's calibre end up signing their second contracts for around 10-11% of the cap, which puts it more in the $8.5-9m range, and my belief is, in 2019, that'll be a cap hit no matter the term. $8m, which is a adjusted value of the Gaudreau contract, would be a best-case scenario, but that just doesn't seem very likely. We shall see.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 1, 2019 at 2:04 p.m.
Thread: Realistic 2nd contracts plus Trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonesryan</b></div><div>Your contracts.. Johnsson and Kapanen are debatable, but personally I don't see either of them over $3.25M for a bridge deals.</div></div>

I explained that in the linked roster. The players that are most similar to Kapanen and Johnsson have signed for what would now -- that is, on a $83m cap -- be over $3.333m.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonesryan</b></div><div> Marner you're just off. Won't be 5 years cause Toronto doesn't want him and Matthews expiring in the same year for UFA, and won't be $9M for long term either. It's either gonna be a 6-7 year deal over $10M, or a 2-3 bridge year deal around $7-$8.5M to make the cap work. </div></div>

Ah yes. The staggered expirations. I'd forgotten about that. Something shorter with Marner is likely... but I don't think it'll be anywhere close to $7m. It's looking like the days of lowball bridges for top-end talent are over. So, imo 2-3 years at $8.5-9m is more likely.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonesryan</b></div><div>Your trades: no offence, but awful. Toronto rejects all of them. Kadri for Spurgeon is the most interesting, but I'd think Toronto would want more back for a guy that's on as great of a deal that Kadri is. Minnesota might not want Kadri either of they're rebuilding. Toronto already turned down a roster player for Brown so they won't take Benning. And Zaitsev has value and is a NHL dman, Toronto isn't taking on a bad contract to throw on LTIR for him..</div></div>

Zaitsev may have value as an NHL dman, but for the Leafs he's what's in the way of their being able to sign their RFAs. I think other teams will be aware of that, so realistically we're talking about them getting Zaitsev on the cheap or letting the Leafs hold onto him and getting Johnsson or Kapanen when the Leafs are inevitably forced to trade one, the other, or both, because Zaitsev (and apparently Brown?) simply must be held on to.

As for Brown... what Toronto elected to do with him in season as they're gearing up for a run is one thing. What they'll do with a different cap structure is another.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 1, 2019 at 1:33 p.m.
Thread: Realistic 2nd contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jluqueSF</b></div><div>
My popular ideas for shedding $:
Zaitsev to OTT for Gaborik (then LTIR him)
Brown (in the hopes that Bracco / Engvall / Baptiste / 1yr UFA will fill the void) to SJS (Justin Braun; would facilitate another move) or EDM (2/3rd pick - don't want benning)
Kadri + pieces / Pesce + pieces (Nylander moves to #3C)
Nylander + pcs / Dumba + pcs (MM16 / KK24 / CB28 / TM42 play RW)

Wishful thinking:
after July 1 bonus paid to PM12; they can flip out the contract (if he wanted to retire) + a draft pick for LW short term size
its maybe wishful thinking, but just cause the team starts one way in 10/2019; doesn't mean that possibly by the new year 2020 that Sandin/Liljgren aren't part of the equation</div></div>

I think those are all solid moves. Zaitsev to OTT for their albatross contract and Brown for a decent depth blue-liner (or a pick that can help net the same) could fix things pretty efficiently.

I'd hope, if Kadri moves, it's in a move with MIN or NSH, where you can get a defenseman that'd move the needle on the top pair.

Ideal, of course, would be Marleau developing an equipment allergy.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 7, 2019 at 1:08 p.m.
Thread: Marner Bridge Keep Gardiner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Philvr</b></div><div>Unfortunately Gardiner will get more we will definitely miss him</div></div>

I was using an 8 year deal to get the contract value up to $42m. That'd be competitive with 5x8m, 6x7m, and 7x6.5m offers, which is what I'd think he'd go for, and might be the sort of thing he'd sign for the sake of stability &amp; security. If he wants to make lots of money fast and hopes to be able to extend his career into his mid/late 30s with another big deal, it doesn't appeal. But it's within the realm of things a pending UFA would consider, I think.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>If Marner is going to sign for 8, it will like;y be for 1 year, and then he gets the same deal as Matthews the year after.

Kapanen is having a statistically similar season to Reinhart last year, who got 3.75 for 2 years. Cap is up, so 4 seems to make sense for 2 years for him. Honestly it could be a bit more, he’ll probably ask for 5x3</div></div>

I like that Marner deal. It's really getting through 2019-20 that we need to do.