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jr400

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Forum: NHL TradesAug. 19, 2023 at 8:50 p.m.
Thread: (ANA/BUF) - 2025 4th (MIN) for Lyubushkin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jr400</b></div><div>I assume we’re talking strictly about players on expiring contracts here.

It seems counter-intuitive – shouldn’t a player be worth more if you can have him for the whole season rather than just a few months? – but these players generally are worth more at the deadline. By then, the buyer teams know exactly how much cap space they have to play with for the rest of the season. The deadline is their last chance to use this cap space, or it’s gone. It’s also their last chance to improve the team (unless they have a potential star coming out of college). This “use it or lose it” situation creates market demand that pushes prices up. Meanwhile the teams trading away players are usually more willing to retain part of their salary at the deadline, because freeing up additional cap space is of no use to them at that point, nor are their remaining retention slots if they don’t use them. Retention makes the players more valuable to the buyer teams who want to get as much as value as they can out of their available cap space.

That said, the fact that Anaheim is willing to pay a 4th-round pick for Lyubushkin now doesn’t necessarily mean some other team will be willing to give up a 3rd for him at the deadline, even with salary retention. General statements don’t always apply to specific cases. His value at the deadline will be determined by what he does this season and how many of the deadline buyers think they need somebody like him. I think they’re willing to accept the possibility that they might not have a buyer for him at the deadline, because he can help them this season.</div></div>

dont think i could agree more with a statement than your. i believe there is a lot of nuance and to this and its impossible to predict exactly what will happen. and boosh performence will help to dictate his future value for sure.

however, if we go with the scenario that boosh as sort of the same performence, i would say the odds of flipping him for the same value *or* higher is more in their favor. team have more cap space, rentention is more available knows if they are competinng or not, their needs and hole to filss and more roster spot (because of future injuries). I would just go with the fact that there is more buyers and right dman is a espacially wanted position.

but of course not all of that is guaranteed at all. thanks for taking the time to write down your thoughts so well.
Forum: NHL TradesAug. 12, 2023 at 12:10 p.m.
Thread: (CAR/PHI) - Rizzo, 2025 5th (CAR) for Kase
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jr400</b></div><div>You're talking about Ondrej Kase. He is David's brother. Carolina signed Ondrej last year, but he played only one game for them, then was out for the season with a concussion. Too bad because I thought he looked pretty good early in his career in Anaheim. I don't know if this has anything to do with them trading for David. I think Ondrej is planning to play in Czechia this season, where David has been since his entry-level with Philadelphia contract ran out.</div></div>

Ondrej was a very good player. It's unfortunate he's had so many head injuries but at some point you have to prioritize your health over the game you love.

He was an amazing player and played his role very well with every team he played with. He could've been that huge underrated difference maker come playoff time.
Forum: NHL TradesAug. 8, 2023 at 9:27 p.m.
Thread: (PIT/MTL/SJS) - Granlund, Rutta, Petry, DeSmith, Légaré, 2024 1st (PIT), 2025 2nd (PIT) for Pitlick, Hoffman for Karlsson, Hamaliuk, 2026 3rd (SJS)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stark</b></div><div>
Pitt takes on an immense risk, if EK can provide something close to last year and they have a good playoff run they win. If they get back the finals they WIN. If reverts to how he was the prior 3 years, they're paying 10M for a lousy defenseman and they lose.</div></div>

The Pens already won the deal. After the trade, it's confirmed their ticket sales bounced back huge! Their sellout streak ended last season. Same as with Bedard in Chicago. This is a business after all. The Pens pushed their chips to the center of the table and got back their stake and then some.
The Sharks owners folded their cards while Grier is due the loan sharks big bucks that he'll need years to repay with no guarantee of success.
Forum: NHL SigningsAug. 4, 2023 at 11:48 a.m.
Thread: Washington Capitals signed Tom Wilson (7 Years / $6,500,000 AAV)
This seems like a terrrrrrrible contract. While I see Caps fans points that some other GM would be dumb enough to overpay for a power forward at 30, can GM's not see that power forwards don't age well.

Dude is an absolute beast and intimidating as heck. But he has cracked 50 points once in his entire career. Many will point out, but thats because he has played shorter seasons, but thats the point. Between injuries and suspensions he is missing games nearly every season. He's already had an ACL repair. This contract doesn't even start for another year. So sure if he can stay health enough to play enough games and keep up with his style of play and put up 20-25 goals and 55 points for those years while physically dominating the opposition it is a solid deal.

But does anyone really think that is likely? I for one would be surprised if he is more than a third liner who can hit by about 3-4 years from now. Plus he has to play big seasons.

This has Lucic/Clarkson/etc written allllll over it.
Forum: NHL SigningsJul. 10, 2023 at 8:58 a.m.
Thread: Detroit Red Wings signed Alex DeBrincat (4 Years / $7,875,000 AAV)
I like these types of deals a lot in general, the biggest issue here is going to be deciding what to do with 29 year old Debrincat. He is a very good player, but he's not in that elite category, and the undisputed best recipe for an awful next contract is a 29 year old very good player coming off of a good value contract.

Either way though, I don't think Teams should be afraid of the next deal when signing the current one. Debrincat wanted too much money for what he is worth right now to go longer term, and that only makes sense if you are getting good value on the back half of the deal, which is a lot of question marks regarding the cap at that time, and Debrincat's decline in his 30's. Instead, Detoit signs Debrincat for essentially his peak value years (25-29) at a cap number that is fair today, but will likely be a value contract in years 2-4, and given similar deals we have seen, can let the next contract be someone else's problem if the number doesn't make sense.
Forum: NHL SigningsJun. 30, 2023 at 8:34 p.m.
Thread: Seattle Kraken signed Joey Daccord (2 Years / $1,200,000 AAV)
This is a great signing. Daccord is going to be an NHL goalie. Teams will regret not claiming him last year on waivers.

I suspect he is pencilled in for the #2 NHL job. If he is beat out by Driedger, this extension is very close to the buried cap hit rate. Meaning, it will be of almost no consequence to bury him. Two years at 1-way money also lowers the chance of another team claiming him. Which could give Seattle some great goalie depth if Driedger bounces back and they are forced to send Daccord to the AHL.

The other factor is that if this contract doesn't work out, whatever - bury him next year. If things do work out this season and he breaks out as a legitimate NHL goalie over 30+ games, not only do they not have to worry about paying him more next year, he becomes a very valuable trade asset because of being cost controlled for an additional year at such a low cap hit. It ensures that even if they cannot keep him, they can get an asset for him.
Forum: NHL TradesJun. 30, 2023 at 12:11 a.m.
Thread: (NYI/CHI) - Bailey, 2026 2nd (NYI) for Future considerations
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jco5ta5</b></div><div>They’re about to explode with young talent next season (24-25) with Nazar, Korchinski, and maybe Oliver Moore. On top of having Bedard and Reichel.

The goal isn’t to put good veterans around Bedard. The goal is to get a top 6 and top 4 core of all roughly the same age and grow them together to keep a window open for 8-10 years.</div></div>

I dont know about exploding with young talent. Rebuilding isn't that easy! Just ask the Sabres whom have legitimate talent tested in the NHL and still havent found success without a rounded out defensive group and goaltending. None of those guys have stepped foot yet in the show! Not every draft pick is a guarantee especially undersized players like Nazar. Chicago is still at least 5 years away from competing, they burnt their house down to the studs last season.
Forum: NHL TradesJun. 29, 2023 at 11:55 a.m.
Thread: (EDM/DET) - Kostin, Yamamoto for Future considerations
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jr400</b></div><div>Yamamoto's an RFA next year only if he gets a $3,200,000 qualifying offer, which I don't think he will unless he has a breakout year.

As an unsigned bottom-6 forward RFA with arbitration rights who's not waivers exempt, I think Kostin is worth a 3rd-round pick at best, so this is equivalent to giving up a 3rd-round pick for a $3.1M cap dump, which not a bad price to pay. However, these guys were regulars for Edmonton so it means they now have two roster spots to fill. If they can fill them for less than $3.1M plus whatever it would have cost to sign Kostin, it's a good trade.</div></div>

Yamo value is the same as Gurianov when traded as he was dealt by Dallas except today its much tougher to move any money as opposed to the TDL. Yamo been put in every position to succeed much like Pool Party with top6 playing time. He's hasnt done much with it and has a real lack of finishing. Im a bit shocked Stevie Y did bite at such a small price with a 4th liner in Klim. Easy trade for Holland to make and they can focus on using their space for needs in the top 9 like a Connor Brown at half the price of Yamo and maybe the 4 on the right. I think we know who!
Forum: NHL TradesJun. 29, 2023 at 11:23 a.m.
Thread: (NYI/CHI) - Bailey, 2026 2nd (NYI) for Future considerations
This is an easy Blackhawks win. Not all cap dumps are equal, as the player you absorb and actual salary paid are a real consideration.

Chicago has a legitimate need for NHL veteran's to insulate their picks and prospects, and chances are Chicago would have to pay a bit of a premium in free agency to sign those players. Maybe they could have gotten a better player on a 1 year $3.5M (Bailey's real dollar cost next season) contract in free agency, but I can't imagine they would be much better off, so a 2nd round pick to jump the line and absorb some dead cap for a year is an easy deal to justify.

Paying a 2nd to remove a $5M contract isn't necessarily awful, but it's not ideal, and it really feels like a steep price to pay given the fact that Bailey is still a decent 3rd line winger (Maybe better if last year was more of a down year than pure decline), only has a year left, and is making considerably less than his cap hit.
Forum: NHL TradesJun. 26, 2023 at 11:26 p.m.
Thread: (BOS/CHI) - Foligno, Hall for Mitchell, Regula
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AK50</b></div><div>Interesting place to waive your NMC for...
Like this for the Hawks, Bedard gets a fellow 1st overall pick as a veteran mentor.</div></div>

He had a NMC with a modified no-trade clause, not a full NMC. Per Chris Johnston, he did not waive to join Chicago, they were not on his no-trade list.

Chicago is a better spot for him than Boston. Boston is better for self-fulfillment because they are a perpetual contender and he might have had another shot at a Stanley Cup. Chicago is better for his career since he will be showcased as their top offensive weapon next to Bedard. It's unlikely he would have had the same kind of role in Boston. With a change of scenery and the kind of offensive roles open in Chicago, in a best case comeback story he might be able to play his way to another big 2-3 year extension. That was never going to happen in Boston. He'd probably see his minutes continue to fall, and by the time he is a UFA he would be in a similar position to a player like Kessel was the off season.
Forum: NHL TradesJun. 25, 2023 at 4:45 p.m.
Thread: (NSH/COL) - Johansen for Galchenyuk
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CameronSquires</b></div><div>NSH should've tried to get at least a 5th rounder minimum and tried to sign Galchenyuk in FA</div></div>

That is a bit of a nit pick to say they should have gotten a 5th rounder. That is negligible value wise and doesn't change the concept of the deal.

Johansen did not have trade protection. They traded him within the same division with the max salary retention for nothing. That is a pretty damning indication that they had zero leverage. People in this thread are years behind on the player. They didn't trade the Johansen of 5 years ago. Colorado took all the risk in this deal.

Here is how you logically evaluate the deal.

If you are Nashville, and Johansen's contract was expiring this off season, would you retain him on a 2 year extension with a 4M AAV? Probably not. Therefore, trading him was the right move.

If your are Colorado, and Johansen was a UFA, would you sign him to a 2 year contract with a 4M AAV?

He is a flawed player at this point, but Colorado may have looked at the UFA market and determined that it was a risk worth taking. There is also the reasonable possibility that this is a win/win deal. Colorado didn't have the same baggage that Nashville does with the player. In Nashville, he was positioned as a core guy and likely a primary leader. In Colorado, he comes into an established room and team structure as a complementary player on a team that already has their leadership core sorted out ahead of him.

There were a bunch of hot quotes about Phil Kessel winning all these cups, despite accusations that he was a poor leader, but there is a difference between being positioned as the star of a team who is expected to be a primary leader, and coming into a team like Pittsburgh that already has those guys, or even going to a team like Vegas as a complimentary veteran who isn't going to play every night. I have no idea if Phil Kessel was bad in Toronto or whatever, but the point is that if he was a cancer in Toronto as a primary leader, winning the cup as a depth veteran in Vegas doesn't invalidate that.

Nashville wins the trade because they get something tangible and defined without risk. That is, 4M x 2 years in cap space. This could be an Adin Hill type trade where we look back and a player vastly outperformed what was expected when they were acquired, but odds are Colorado either regrets this deal, or it ends up being mostly irrelevant with Johansen living up to his deal but not exceeding it by much.