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rebecca

Member Since
Apr. 8, 2017
Favourite Team
Toronto Maple Leafs
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Edmonton Oilers
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Forum: NHL SigningsJan. 15, 2020 at 7:43 a.m.
Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs signed Martin Marincin (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
Marincin has played a role and done it without griping. Some perennial 8th D-Men will look elsewhere to ensure they stay in the NHL or get more mins/more games. Marincin has happily played in the AHL for much of the past 4 years, including playoff games (which are unpaid!), when his services have not been required by the Leafs. In the AHL he’s an effective shutdown D-Man who’s able to kill penalties and is good in the locker room at mentoring the numerous young Marlies D-Men.

As noted, while he will be earning a guaranteed $0.7M on a 1-way contract, none of that will count against the cap when he is not on the Leafs roster and, when he is on the Leafs roster you’re not going to find a cheaper contract to fill out your 5th, 6th or 7th D-Man slots. With where the Leafs are at, anything higher than league minimum or an ELC is just no longer tenable in the bottom pairing nor most of the bottom-6. There’s better D-Men but the Leafs can’t afford them.

I for one am happy MarMar is coming back. It’s good to have continuity and loyalty, an intangible quality that is so often lost these days. He’s another member of the Calder Cup championship team from 2018 that is now forming almost half the Leafs roster and he was a big part of that win (played top pair D with Hollsy for the Marlies back then). It’s great to see so many of these players progress to playing FT for the Leafs (with more to come)!

In sum, MarMar will never be a Top-4 defender in the NHL (edit: checks current Leafs depth chart on Cap Friendly....well sheeeeeeet, that’s why we’ve been allowing 6 goals per game) but anyways, *ordinarily* when he plays in an appropriate role, he does it well and without griping.
Forum: NHL SigningsNov. 1, 2019 at 1:31 p.m.
Thread: Nashville Predators signed Austin Watson (3 Years / $1,500,000 AAV)
It is surprising that a team would double down on someone with AW’s recent history. Does the cost off the ice - for the organization’s relationship with the community and women in particular - outweigh the gains *on* the ice? Difficult to quantify and ultimately impossible to know without knowing more details about the work Watson’s done and will continue to do to correct his behaviour and make reparations, to involved parties as well as to the organizations that fight VAW. I imagine that a significant chunk of this salary will go towards those organizations (publicly or not) and that the Preds are confident they’re making the right decision.

That all said, there is little to not like about this contract from a strictly hockey standpoint. They’ve shown acumen in locking up core complimentary players long-term (longer than most), see Sissons, Colton for another example. Watson was 10th in average all-situations ice-time, 4th in PK ice-time, amongst Predators F’s in 18/19; so far in 19/20 his numbers are not far off (10th and 6th respectively). I don’t foresee Watson not being one of the Preds top-12 (maybe even top-9 or top-10) forwards at any point in the next 4 years and, as such, this deal is solid for any player who can provide depth scoring and PK support like Watson has consistently shown he is able.
Forum: NHL TradesOct. 27, 2019 at 11:06 a.m.
Thread: (FLA/OTT) - Wilkie for Rodewald
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>Jack Rodewald is a really good AHL depth piece. Wilkie was a 6th round pick half a decade ago. At this point you're happy if he becomes Jack Rodewald.</div></div>

Well put. It’s the most likely outcome that Wilkie never gets signed and toils away with an ECHL (or lower level) team or tries his luck in a B-league in Europe. In either case he’s just a player on paper for the Sens.

Rodewald, who I was high on when he was in the Leafs organization originally (but was buried because of too much depth up front for Toronto at the AHL level circa 2015), once again finds himself squeezed out by a super-deep AHL club who’s NHL affiliate is in the midst of a rebuild.

He’s produced well at the AHL level since coming over from Toronto. Over the past 3 seasons with the B-Sens he’s scored at a 26-goal rate prorated over an entire 76-game season. Is he going to be an impact piece at the NHL level? Not a chance. But will he be able to step in and play 10m per night in a 4th line role? Absolutely!

Look no further than Gerry Mayhew in Minnesota who’s over 2 years older than Rodewald, who also cut his teeth in the AHL for years before making his NHL debut earlier this month. It’s one of the best feel-good stories of this young NHL season but it goes to show that even players 25 and older can still grow and develop and become (a little bit) more than what they are.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 9, 2019 at 5:26 p.m.
Thread: San Jose Sharks signed Patrick Marleau (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
I’m really happy that Patty is back in the NHL. He has a remarkable consecutive games streak that lasted throughout his entire 30’s! NHL officials have confirmed that his game streak is still intact - he didn’t have a contract so there’s no games to have missed! Who can say they never missed a day of work thru their entire 30’s?! I swear it’s those ice baths he takes in between every period (this is true).

Unless he has a crazy turn-back-the-clock season (a la Jagr) this will certainly be his last. So he won’t set the record for Ironman streaks but if he plays the last 75 games of the season, he’ll end up at 863 consecutive games played (4th or 5th all-time depending on if Keith Yandle, a dozen games in front of Marleau, continues his streak through 2019/20). The record, remember is 964 (Doug Jarvis) which would require another season plus 20 games in the next season to break. Crazier things have happened but this is likely Marleau’s swan song.

<a href="https://records.nhl.com/records/skater-records/seasons-and-games/most-consecutive-games-played" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://records.nhl.com/records/skater-records/seasons-and-games/most-consecutive-games-played</a>
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 7, 2019 at 2:30 a.m.
Thread: New Jersey Devils signed Joe Morrow (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>I'm a little surprised Boyle is still out there too. He's probably had a couple offers, but he probably wants a specific situation. Solid C/W who can play decently in all situations.</div></div>

Right?! There was talk about there being significant interest but cap constraints limiting the possibilities. I reckon he won’t settle for under $1.5M and likely would insist on a 2y deal with a NTC for the first year at a minimum as he’s moved around a lot while dealing with a lot of life stuff. Given it’s the last contract he’ll sign he probably wants to do it right. But I’m sure he’ll get picked up once team’a figure out what they’ve got (and don’t have).

Same for Vanek, and Marleau who can provide more pop than players 15 years their junior.

Not certain about Pominville - his career may be over if BUF or MIN won’t offer him a 1y deal. Same thing for anyone else below him on the list tho Brouwer could be useful for 1 more year (he’s a double digit goal scorer and that’s worth something) and Paajarvi - were he to accept a 2-way deal and time to work his way up from the AHL I’m sure an NHL club could find him a useful depth piece.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 6, 2019 at 5:14 p.m.
Thread: New Jersey Devils signed Joe Morrow (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
The D-Men are all tapped out. This was the best remaining option and the last guy who could arguably be a Top-6 guy in the NHL. Phaneuf, MacDonald, Methot, McQuaid? They are all too slow for today’s game, typified by more mobile blue liners. It’s possible the 2 younger UFA’s - Luca Sbisa and Patrick Wiercioch (both 29) - find a place with an organization on a 2-way deal but other than that I don’t see anyone other UFAs who are going to play in the NHL - at least in terms of D-Men.

Forwards however? That’s a whole other story. I’m waiting for the news to drop on some of these guys - all of whom could play a valuable bottom-6 and secondary special teams role and provide experience and leadership. The question in many cases will be if these guys, used to making 7 figures, will accept a minimum salary deal in order to join a contender (like how Jason Spezza did in Toronto), as so many teams have little cap space.

<strong>Top 10 Remaining UFA Forwards</strong>
1. Brian Boyle, 35
2. Thomas Vanek, 35
3. Patrick Marleau, 40
4. Jason Pominville, 37
5. Magnus Paajarvi, 28
6. Troy Brouwer, 34
7. Linus Videll, 34 (KHL)
8. Drew Stafford, 34
9. Jamie McGinn, 31
10. Devante Smith-Pelly, 27

Who’s gonna get signed next?
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 17, 2019 at 12:46 p.m.
Thread: Carolina Hurricanes signed Fredrik Claesson (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
One of the under-the-radar top UFAs left (I had him at #12) and arguably the best UFA D-Man (under 30) still available. Has shown better in his 3+ seasons than Ben Hutton or Joe Morrow. His career Corsi is a respectable 48.9% and his relative Corsi last season (with the Rags) was +3.0. He’s played on pretty awful teams but put up decent peripherals so it’ll be interesting to see him in a depth role in Carolina.

He has a surprising amount of pro experience (517 games split between the NHL (150), SHL (82) and AHL (285)). As such, if he doesn’t make the Canes roster he’ll will take up one of the 6 spots for veteran skaters (basically those with &gt;260 pro GP) available in Charlotte. Could be an alternate captain down there if they go that route.

Other than not being signed sooner, the only surprising thing is that he’s signed by the team that needs the least help with respect to defensive depth. I can’t imagine there not being at least ONE trade of Canes D-Men to flesh out their forward lines and forward prospect depth (which is shallower relative to their blue line). All the talk about Faulk may finally lead to something with this and the Gardiner signing. Could a lefty, maybe Jake Bean (who could bring back a valuable piece) also be on his way out? We shall see.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 13, 2019 at 11:52 a.m.
Thread: Philadelphia Flyers signed Ivan Provorov (6 Years / $6,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DirtyDangles</b></div><div>So Provy has one down year and all of a sudden he doesn't have elite potential? Can you elaborate as to how that is the case?</div></div>

That’s the take by Corey Pronman, who travels the world and ranks prospects and young players. Over the past few years his impression of Provorov has gone down a notch. He may not be elite (Top-10 D in the NHL) but he can still be a very serviceable top pairing defender and, should he get there, then this is a great contract. It’s just that he has a ways to go. As per my later post, looking at his overall game, scoring, play driving, and ability to suppress scoring chances, he’s at the level of an average 2nd pairing defenseman as it stands right now.
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 12, 2019 at 11:13 p.m.
Thread: Philadelphia Flyers signed Ivan Provorov (6 Years / $6,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>Also gotta take into account the fact that Morrissey should see substantial exposure to WPG's elite forwards both at 5on5 and on the PP. His offensive numbers should probably be higher than Provorov's assuming Ghostesbehere retains the #1 PP role. Maybe it's just b/c I've seen Provorov a lit more on tv and in person b/c the Flyers play the Devils 4 times a year and PHI gets more national TV exposure, but I just think he's the total package of 2-way skill, physicality, and high hockey IQ. Before his regression last season I thought he was a future Norris contender...He still might be, but who knows.</div></div>

Also, Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic in his annual team previews/rankings grades Provorov out as a 0.9 on his Game Score whereas Morrissey is a 1.6. It’s behind a paywall, but it’s a very rigorous analysis (accounts for scoring contributions and expected goals for/against primarily as well as other things and corrected for age curves). It’s weighted with the most recent season in account, so that doesn’t help Provorov, but it shows that Morrissey is a top pair (but not elite) option whereas Provorov is a solid 2nd Pair guy (over the past 3y).
Forum: NHL SigningsSep. 12, 2019 at 11:03 p.m.
Thread: Philadelphia Flyers signed Ivan Provorov (6 Years / $6,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>Also gotta take into account the fact that Morrissey should see substantial exposure to WPG's elite forwards both at 5on5 and on the PP. His offensive numbers should probably be higher than Provorov's assuming Ghostesbehere retains the #1 PP role. Maybe it's just b/c I've seen Provorov a lit more on tv and in person b/c the Flyers play the Devils 4 times a year and PHI gets more national TV exposure, but I just think he's the total package of 2-way skill, physicality, and high hockey IQ. Before his regression last season I thought he was a future Norris contender...He still might be, but who knows.</div></div>

And perhaps I’m bias being in Toronto and watching the Jets (tho not as often as I like as late game is usually the Canucks ? on CBC) on Saturday nights (Hockey Night in Canada).

There is merit in choosing the Provorov deal over the Morrissey deal, don’t get me wrong. Both are being paid at what will be “bargains” for a top pair D-Man in a few years time. And they could be more even. So there is value to be had.

Provorov could still be a Top-30 defender one day in the NHL but he’s got a ways to go. Morrissey is already there, IMHO, as a top pair LD and in the “Top-30” conversation.

Morrissey actually doesn’t see a tonne of PP time - significantly less than Provorov in fact. Last season Morrissey had 103m and in 17/18 just 26m. Provorov has averaged almost 140m per season on the PP thru his first 3 seasons. Just for comparison.

And thank you. ???‍♀️