Being a scout for Hockey Canada has its benefits, one of them is that I heard from someone that works in the NHL (just scout to scout talk, but still reliable to me), that Pierre Dorian has "quietly been keeping a close eye on the Eichel trade front and believe to be a front runner if Buffalo decides to move him". This got me thinking that with all of the young guys that Ottawa has been incorporating in their lineup recently (Pinto, Bernard-Docker, Formenton, etc), if maybe Dorion is showcasing his young guys for a potential off-season blockbuster with Buffalo. The Sens are one of the few teams that would be set up with Buffalo's ask and the cap space to be able to absorb Eichel's cap hit without having to move a significant contract back. I think the amount of teams that are willing and can absorb his cap hit without having to send a contract back is one of the bigger factors in this deal.
Buffalo's reported ask has been "the equivalent of 4 1st round picks" and the Sens definitely have the prospect depth to fit that. However I believe that with Eichel's well noted disagreement with Buffalo management, injury history, & the fact that it's an initial ask and negotiations always start high, I think it will slightly lower the actual return to possibly around the equivalent of 3 1st round talents and a wild card type of player. With Ottawa being a divisional rival on most years, it would likely bump the price back up to around 4 1st round talents though. I see 4 players from Ottawa as complete non-starters in any deal: Tkachuk, Stuetzle, Chabot, and Sanderson. Anyone would be on the table for Eichel, with Norris being a wild card because of his success and friendship with Tkachuk and Stuetzle (but for Eichel he may be included). From there, I see Ottawa giving up a young top 6 forward, 2 top prospects with top 6/top 4 potential, a guaranteed 1st, and an additional pick that may turn into a 1st if Ottawa and Eichel have success. For those players I have:
Young top 6 player: Drake Batherson
2 top prospects: Shane Pinto and Jacob Bernard-Docker
2021 1st round pick (assuming it's top 10)
2023 conditional 2nd (based on success of team and player, could be a 1st)
To me, that's 3 guaranteed 1st round quality talents in Pinto, Bernard-Docker, and the 2021 1st round pick, you could argue Batherson would have the value of a 1st round pick, and a conditional pick that may or may not be a 1st, but its projected to be a decent draft so Buffalo could get a potential steal.
This may not be the top prospects that people initially think Buffalo could get for Eichel, but I still think it's a very, very competitive offer that gives Ottawa a potentially dominant future and gives the Sabres a massive return for a franchise centre.
*Conditional 2023 2nd round pick:
1. Becomes a 2023 1st round pick if Eichel finishes in top 3 of Hart Tropy voting in either 2021/2022 or 2022/2023
OR
2. Becomes a 2023 1st round pick if Ottawa makes the postseason in both of 2021/2022 and 2022/2023
OR
3. Becomes a 2023 1st if Ottawa win the Stanley Cup in either 2021/2022 or 2022/2023
I don’t know it’s that’s worth it for OTT. I definitely believe your source is reliable and that Ottawa for sure could be keeping a close eye on the situation. But I would have to imagine that unless melnyk decides to stop pinching pennies, an Eichel deal is a no go, and I’m not sure Ottawa would want to move on from some of those guys before knowing what they truly have with them.
This is definitely an interesting scenario and one to keep an eye on if your source is reliable.
It’s certainly true that any division rival will have to pay more because they are a division rival, and who wants to play against your former star center eight times a year for the next decade? I would not be surprised if there’s a particular prospect or roster talent Buffalo would target from Ottawa in return for Jack Eichel. Much the same way that Anders Björk was a sticking point for Kevyn Adams in the Taylor Hall trade. I’m not sure who that guy is off the top of my head. It also depends on when this trade would happen.
I have my doubts that anything will happen this off-season because I don’t expect the Sabres to get the offer they want until Jack is back healthy. When he is healthy and performing his value will go back up to where it usually is, the franchise defining center that every single team in the league needs to have. Also, if the Sabres draft Matt Beniers they would have another center in the depth chart to facilitate a trade of Jack Eichel if it was necessary. Otherwise they really would need a center coming back.
I still believe a trade for Jack Eichel begins with Tim Stutzle, but like I said if they draft Beniers that may no longer be a priority. You think it’s a nonstarter, but Jack Eichel when he is 100% is a Hart trophy contender. Stutzle has A lot of potential, but the best one could hope for would be he is as good as Jack Eichel is now. That’s a pretty tall order for anyone.
Batherson should be a nonstarter. I'm not moving a core piece to get Eichel. Sens have plenty of valuable assets, and can make a competitive offer for Eichel, but if not getting one of Chabot, Stützle, Norris, Tkachuk, Batherson or Sanderson is a deal breaker for Eichel, then I'm comfortable walking away. If a packagethat looks something like Pinto+Brannstrom+top 10 pick+Thomson+Jarventie + 2nd isn't enough to get it done, than frankly the cost is too high for it to make Sense.
McDavid, Connor
$250,000)
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