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Vegas Golden Knights signed Colin Miller (4 Years / $3,875,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Jul 7 at 5:22 pm
#1
Colin Miller has signed a new contract with the Vegas Golden Knights.
STANDARD CONTRACT
COMPARE THIS CONTRACT
LENGTH: 4 YEARS
EXPIRY STATUS: UFA
SIGNING TEAM: Vegas Golden Knights
VALUE: $15,500,000
C.H.% : 4.87
SIGNING DATE: July 7, 2018
SOURCE: www.nhl.com
SEASONCLAUSECAP HIT AAV P. BONUSES S. BONUSES BASE SALARY TOTAL SALARY MINORS SALARY
2018-19$3,875,000$3,875,000$0$0$3,875,000$3,875,000$3,875,000
2019-20$3,875,000$3,875,000$0$0$3,875,000$3,875,000$3,875,000
2020-21Modified NTC$3,875,000$3,875,000$0$0$3,875,000$3,875,000$3,875,000
2021-22Modified NTC$3,875,000$3,875,000$0$0$3,875,000$3,875,000$3,875,000
TOTAL$15,500,000$15,500,000$0$0$15,500,000$15,500,000$15,500,000
CLAUSE DETAILS: 2020-21 & 21-22: Player submits a 5 no team trade list.
CLAUSE SOURCE: @CapFriendly
Jul 7 at 6:39 pm
#2
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 586
Likes: 127
Would have preferred more term at a higher price

definitely a cheap signing for what he can bring
OldNYIfan and SkinnyNovy liked this.
Jul 7 at 6:59 pm
#3
I'm a Skatman
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 1,009
Likes: 263
26-29 at a reasonable price, then he can get overpaid as UFA somewhere else and someone else can take his spot. what's not to like?
Jul 8 at 2:33 pm
#4
skates21
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 37
Likes: 18
I don't know a lot about this guy but his name pops up a lot and his analytics look good. As far as I can tell with todays market, he's worth the price. He was having some up seasons prior to joining Vegas and elevated it in Vegas. Looks like he's reaching his real potential. Tough loss for the B's... Miller then Subban for nothing.
OldNYIfan liked this.
Jul 8 at 6:20 pm
#5
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 275
Likes: 25
Surprised he didn't get 4+ million per.
Willian_Cardoso and OldNYIfan liked this.
Jul 9 at 8:07 am
#6
ON3M4N SHOW
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2,599
Likes: 577
Edited Jul 9 at 10:02 am
Quoting: SKATES21
I don't know a lot about this guy but his name pops up a lot and his analytics look good. As far as I can tell with todays market, he's worth the price. He was having some up seasons prior to joining Vegas and elevated it in Vegas. Looks like he's reaching his real potential. Tough loss for the B's... Miller then Subban for nothing.


It wasn't really a huge loss for the Bruins lol.

Miller was our #3 RHD behind McAvoy and Carlo. He's got some offensive upside, but he plays very sheltered minutes (highest oZone to dZone start ratio on Vegas) and was 2nd on the team in giveaways. 41 points in nice, but the guy was struggling to keep his oiSV% above 90% and he was only a +2 at ES for the season. Good skater, but often skated himself into trouble aka turnovers. Took the 4th most shots on the team last year, but has a 2nd worst thru% (vegas skaters with 40+ games played).

Good player, but he's vastly overrated...especially in Boston circles.
Hockeyplayer1 and OldNYIfan liked this.
Jul 9 at 4:41 pm
#7
OldNYIfan
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 384
Likes: 82
Quoting: ON3M4N
It wasn't really a huge loss for the Bruins lol.

Miller was our #3 RHD behind McAvoy and Carlo. He's got some offensive upside, but he plays very sheltered minutes (highest oZone to dZone start ratio on Vegas) and was 2nd on the team in giveaways. 41 points in nice, but the guy was struggling to keep his oiSV% above 90% and he was only a +2 at ES for the season. Good skater, but often skated himself into trouble aka turnovers. Took the 4th most shots on the team last year, but has a 2nd worst thru% (vegas skaters with 40+ games played).

Good player, but he's vastly overrated...especially in Boston circles.


Don't worry . . . everyone gets better with age.
Jul 10 at 7:28 am
#8
ON3M4N SHOW
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2,599
Likes: 577
Quoting: OldNYIfan
Don't worry . . . everyone gets better with age.


I don't see how that has to do with my post, but ok?
Jul 10 at 9:16 am
#9
skates21
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 37
Likes: 18
No one said it was a huge loss. Said its a tough loss getting nothing for Subban and Miller. Assets are valuable commodities in the NHL.... whether its a pick or prospect. Could lead to other deals down the road that are of significance
OldNYIfan liked this.
Jul 10 at 9:26 am
#10
skates21
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 37
Likes: 18
Analytics are apart of the storey and can tell you a lot about how a player played at a given time but it isn't the whole storey. There are so many factors that play into analytics that don't always tell a true storey. Was he confident, who were is defensive partners, were they confident, who were his line mates, etc etc. Sometimes a player plays differently than his skills due to outside factors. Why pass to that guy who's been shooting bad lately? Ill just make a play myself etc etc. Although analytics are a good tool, it isn't always the tell all. In this case, i havent done a lot of research on the guy, so i can't deny your statement but I do encourage and open mind to other factors outside of analytics. Look at Florida, high on analytical study. They trade and sign players by it. Hasn't worked well for them.
OldNYIfan liked this.
Jul 10 at 9:28 am
#11
skates21
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 37
Likes: 18
Quoting: ON3M4N
I don't see how that has to do with my post, but ok?


didnt quote u for the above so ud probably never see it
Jul 10 at 9:29 am
#12
skates21
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 37
Likes: 18
What would u have said about William Karlsson for example coming into this season ? Probably that he's a fringe 3rd liner from the analytics. Given various factors, a player can be someone else in a lot of cases. Contracts are often rewarded on potential. They see upside and potential here.
OldNYIfan liked this.
Jul 10 at 9:37 am
#13
ON3M4N SHOW
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2,599
Likes: 577
Quoting: SKATES21
No one said it was a huge loss. Said its a tough loss getting nothing for Subban and Miller. Assets are valuable commodities in the NHL.... whether its a pick or prospect. Could lead to other deals down the road that are of significance


But no team was giving up anything for either guy lol. Boston tried to move both guys and no GM was willing to give up anything of value because they then would have to expose them (lets be honest no on was protecting either guy). If you're not going to get anywhere close to value then you keep them and hope you get lucky. Subban was more self inflicted but honestly he never showed much in Boston and IIRC he lost the back-up job during the season.
Jul 10 at 9:40 am
#14
ON3M4N SHOW
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2,599
Likes: 577
Quoting: SKATES21
Analytics are apart of the storey and can tell you a lot about how a player played at a given time but it isn't the whole storey. There are so many factors that play into analytics that don't always tell a true storey. Was he confident, who were is defensive partners, were they confident, who were his line mates, etc etc. Sometimes a player plays differently than his skills due to outside factors. Why pass to that guy who's been shooting bad lately? Ill just make a play myself etc etc. Although analytics are a good tool, it isn't always the tell all. In this case, i havent done a lot of research on the guy, so i can't deny your statement but I do encourage and open mind to other factors outside of analytics. Look at Florida, high on analytical study. They trade and sign players by it. Hasn't worked well for them.


I'm open to everything, but I've watched Miller enough to know what he is. I've also talked with scouts who echo a similar breakdown of him and many still see him as a 3rd pairing PP specialist. Sure sometimes there is a story within the analytics story but you look at Miller and outside of a few stats, his numbers/situation usage is very similar to Boston.
Jul 10 at 9:50 am
#15
ON3M4N SHOW
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2,599
Likes: 577
Quoting: SKATES21
What would u have said about William Karlsson for example coming into this season ? Probably that he's a fringe 3rd liner from the analytics. Given various factors, a player can be someone else in a lot of cases. Contracts are often rewarded on potential. They see upside and potential here.


Just looking at analytics, sure. Maybe even a 3rd liner with 2nd line upside. Not sure Karlsson is a great example though because he just never really got a chance in CBJ and put up nearly as many goals last year as he had career points before the season. Looking at his last year with CBJ vs his first year with VEG:

TOI
CBJ - 13:23
VEG - 18:43

Shots
CBJ - 96
VEG - 184

S%
CBJ - 6.3%
VEG - 23.4%

oZS%
CBJ - 45.2
VEG - 51.6

FF% rel
CBJ: -4.3
VEG: 3.9

What the advanced stat story tells me: CBJ was using Karlsson in a more defensive role while VEG put him in a more offensive role. His TOI jumped over 5 minutes a game and nearly 500 for the season (compared to last year in CBJ). My guess is that Vegas asked him to think more offensively, thus his shot total nearly doubling and his oZS% increased by about 6% with Vegas. The biggest question I have is his S% going forward. 23.4% is a crazy shooting percentage and in prior years he was anywhere between 6% to 8% with CBJ. Now you plug in 8% with his SOG and he's got 15G (again huge swing).

I know what you're getting at, I just think Karlsson is a bad example because it looks more like a career year than anything.
Jul 10 at 4:23 pm
#16
OldNYIfan
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 384
Likes: 82
Quoting: ON3M4N
I don't see how that has to do with my post, but ok?


Uh, it means this year I expect Miller will be better than last. Just like me. Like you, too, I hope.
Jul 10 at 11:32 pm
#17
skates21
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 37
Likes: 18
Quoting: ON3M4N
Just looking at analytics, sure. Maybe even a 3rd liner with 2nd line upside. Not sure Karlsson is a great example though because he just never really got a chance in CBJ and put up nearly as many goals last year as he had career points before the season. Looking at his last year with CBJ vs his first year with VEG:

TOI
CBJ - 13:23
VEG - 18:43

Shots
CBJ - 96
VEG - 184

S%
CBJ - 6.3%
VEG - 23.4%

oZS%
CBJ - 45.2
VEG - 51.6

FF% rel
CBJ: -4.3
VEG: 3.9

What the advanced stat story tells me: CBJ was using Karlsson in a more defensive role while VEG put him in a more offensive role. His TOI jumped over 5 minutes a game and nearly 500 for the season (compared to last year in CBJ). My guess is that Vegas asked him to think more offensively, thus his shot total nearly doubling and his oZS% increased by about 6% with Vegas. The biggest question I have is his S% going forward. 23.4% is a crazy shooting percentage and in prior years he was anywhere between 6% to 8% with CBJ. Now you plug in 8% with his SOG and he's got 15G (again huge swing).

I know what you're getting at, I just think Karlsson is a bad example because it looks more like a career year than anything.


Hes a good example in the sense that the analytics said he's a checking 3rd line centre. His 6.3% shooting would indicate he's not an offensive player. Same with the shots taken etc etc. Your very likely right in VEG approach in asking his to play offence rather than a defensive role. His off zone starts weren't a dramatic change from columbus but but yes his shooting percentage was insane. Good shooters can hover around the 14% mark. Id peg him around the 10-11% mark. But when u look at his usage in Columbus, he was pegged as u said, a third liner with 2nd line upside.

Miller, it this NHL is a commodity that is semi rare. Right shot PP guy with capabilities to do so and continue to do so. He may improve based on his training regimen and team focus on how they use him. But i wouldn't disagree that he's a 3rd pairing. Was just trying to say he's worth the coin he's paid and its on par with what teams tend to offer for these type of guys and the loss, albeit, insignificant from your point of view, was still a tough loss in the sense that they got nothing for him and Subban
Jul 11 at 7:29 am
#18
ON3M4N SHOW
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2,599
Likes: 577
Quoting: SKATES21
Hes a good example in the sense that the analytics said he's a checking 3rd line centre. His 6.3% shooting would indicate he's not an offensive player. Same with the shots taken etc etc. Your very likely right in VEG approach in asking his to play offence rather than a defensive role. His off zone starts weren't a dramatic change from columbus but but yes his shooting percentage was insane. Good shooters can hover around the 14% mark. Id peg him around the 10-11% mark. But when u look at his usage in Columbus, he was pegged as u said, a third liner with 2nd line upside.

Miller, it this NHL is a commodity that is semi rare. Right shot PP guy with capabilities to do so and continue to do so. He may improve based on his training regimen and team focus on how they use him. But i wouldn't disagree that he's a 3rd pairing. Was just trying to say he's worth the coin he's paid and its on par with what teams tend to offer for these type of guys and the loss, albeit, insignificant from your point of view, was still a tough loss in the sense that they got nothing for him and Subban


We agree on some and disagree on others.

BTW it still wasn't a huge loss for Boston lol. Subban had no future in Boston and its not like he was a stud in VEG. Miller wasn't going to take out Carlo or McAvoy and honestly we already have enough OFD types. Not to mention (as I said before) teams weren't willing to give us anything of value for either player.
Jul 12 at 12:01 pm
#19
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 8
Likes: 2
Quoting: ON3M4N
It wasn't really a huge loss for the Bruins lol.

Miller was our #3 RHD behind McAvoy and Carlo. He's got some offensive upside, but he plays very sheltered minutes (highest oZone to dZone start ratio on Vegas) and was 2nd on the team in giveaways. 41 points in nice, but the guy was struggling to keep his oiSV% above 90% and he was only a +2 at ES for the season. Good skater, but often skated himself into trouble aka turnovers. Took the 4th most shots on the team last year, but has a 2nd worst thru% (vegas skaters with 40+ games played).

Good player, but he's vastly overrated...especially in Boston circles.


It likely wasn't a huge loss for Boston, considering they have some prospects ready on D, but it's a mismanagement of assets at the least as protecting K. Miller over him is a mistake, even if the plan was to hold on until after the expansion draft and trade him later.

The problem was teams overthought the expansion process by way too much. People thought you needed to be able to protect a player to make it worthwhile to add a player on the cheap prior to the draft, but that was an incorrect way to think. If an addition like TVR cost you a third, then he gets selected, you basically used a 3rd to protect your entire roster. If you already had a player you were going to lose ahead of him, you just got that players replacement for a cheap price by shopping ahead of the draft. This drove the price down ahead of the draft, but Boston could easily have realized some value by shopping later. Even if you think he is overrated, that means someone else would overrate and likely overpay just based on age and position.

Also, some of the stats you use are irrelevant. He was sheltered, but lots of players are sheltered when they are younger. He took on more responsibility and minutes as the year went on in Vegas as was a fixture in their top 4 throughout the playoffs. They gave him lots of Ozone starts, but he was one of their better shooting defenders, so that makes sense, but he was no longer getting primarily minutes against 3rd and 4th liners. He likely is never a shut down specialist, but if he turns into what Torey Krug is, a good 2nd pairing defensive guy, with top pairing offense, he has a lot of value, especially with a right handed shot. Also, oisv% is virtually never attributable to skaters, and is primarily used to see if weak goal metrics are a function of luck more so than skill. The fact he had lower oisv% and plus minus than most of his team typically go hand in hand. They also use it to see if a player was getting the benefit from an unusually high oisv% in their goal metrics. So I wouldn't discredit him based on a lower oisv% for a single season. There is only a handful of defenders in the league who routinely seem to have a significant impact, negatively or positively, on their goalies save percentage, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

This deal is solid for Vegas, as he is getting a little less than typical top 4 money. So if he ends up being a #5 guy with PP upside, who can slide up during injuries, then they are still getting full value. Also, not being locked to the guy into his 30's means they are buying his best years at what will be a bargain deal. So even if some overrate him, Vegas figures to come out OK as this deal doesn't really overrate him, even if he doesn't have much upside from here on out.
Jul 12 at 12:12 pm
#20
ON3M4N SHOW
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2,599
Likes: 577
Quoting: Danny12357
It likely wasn't a huge loss for Boston, considering they have some prospects ready on D, but it's a mismanagement of assets at the least as protecting K. Miller over him is a mistake, even if the plan was to hold on until after the expansion draft and trade him later.


Kevan fit the role of what the team needed on the 3rd pairing, that's why they kept him. Given the option they'd do it again lol.

Quote:
The problem was teams overthought the expansion process by way too much. People thought you needed to be able to protect a player to make it worthwhile to add a player on the cheap prior to the draft, but that was an incorrect way to think. If an addition like TVR cost you a third, then he gets selected, you basically used a 3rd to protect your entire roster. If you already had a player you were going to lose ahead of him, you just got that players replacement for a cheap price by shopping ahead of the draft. This drove the price down ahead of the draft, but Boston could easily have realized some value by shopping later. Even if you think he is overrated, that means someone else would overrate and likely overpay just based on age and position.

Also, some of the stats you use are irrelevant. He was sheltered, but lots of players are sheltered when they are younger. He took on more responsibility and minutes as the year went on in Vegas as was a fixture in their top 4 throughout the playoffs. They gave him lots of Ozone starts, but he was one of their better shooting defenders, so that makes sense, but he was no longer getting primarily minutes against 3rd and 4th liners. He likely is never a shut down specialist, but if he turns into what Torey Krug is, a good 2nd pairing defensive guy, with top pairing offense, he has a lot of value, especially with a right handed shot. Also, oisv% is virtually never attributable to skaters, and is primarily used to see if weak goal metrics are a function of luck more so than skill. The fact he had lower oisv% and plus minus than most of his team typically go hand in hand. They also use it to see if a player was getting the benefit from an unusually high oisv% in their goal metrics. So I wouldn't discredit him based on a lower oisv% for a single season. There is only a handful of defenders in the league who routinely seem to have a significant impact, negatively or positively, on their goalies save percentage, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

This deal is solid for Vegas, as he is getting a little less than typical top 4 money. So if he ends up being a #5 guy with PP upside, who can slide up during injuries, then they are still getting full value. Also, not being locked to the guy into his 30's means they are buying his best years at what will be a bargain deal. So even if some overrate him, Vegas figures to come out OK as this deal doesn't really overrate him, even if he doesn't have much upside from here on out.


You're more than welcome to your opinion as is anyone, but I find it hard to believe that Miller was a "fixture in their top 4 throughout the playoffs" when of the 5 d-men on Vegas that played all 20 games, Miller ranked 5th in TOI per game while seeing on average 2 minutes less than the guy ranked 4th. Lastly, ask any knowledge Bruins fan and they'll tell you that Krug isn't a 2nd pairing d-man. He's a 3rd pairing PP specialist....just like Miller is.
 
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