Brace yourself; many words incoming:
This one is for everyone who believes the Leafs are doomed to a life of cap troubles because they signed one of the few superstars to hit free agency in the last few decades. Yes, it will become a tight fit, but the Leafs have a few things in their favour:
1) They've drafted rather well, and their development system, as proven by the Marlies' Calder Cup win, shows they can bring in *cheap*, young players who can play in their systems.
2) They have Gilman and Pridham as their two AGM's, two guys who practically co-wrote the current CBA; if any team could navigate the messy minefield that is the salary cap, and/or exploit potential loopholes, it's Toronto.
3) The salary cap has been steadily rising, and with Seattle about to join the league, the cap will see another hefty jump. If the Leafs can survive through this season (2019-20), they will likely get some more breathing room later on, and the contracts they sign now look better and better as time goes on.
4) I didn't really want to put this point here, as it sounds horribly biased, but the Leafs have one of the most enticing young cores in the league, and will be able to contend for years. Dubas has been at the forefront of the Leafs' turnaround, as players are clearly buying into what he and the rest of the management group has been creating. This maybe leads to some players taking slightly less for a chance to go further, something I could very well see happening.
Now for the contracts:
Nylander: One of my favourites, and imo underrated for what he can bring to the table, but anything more than 6.5 is ludicrous - consider what players like Pastranak (6.66), Gaudreau (6.75), and Ehlers (6) are making, and I think Nylander's deal will probably be closer to a 6x6.
Marner: Despite having relatively the same production as Nylander, people are somehow convinced he will command a ridiculous deal. I do think he'll get more, but not in the 8.5-9 million range that some people expect - guys like Kuznetsov (7.8), Scheifele (6.125) and Forsberg (6) all had similar if not better production coming out of their entry-level deals, and after adjusting for equivalent cap hit percentage, Marner's equivalent deal would come out to 6.5-7 million-ish. I think he'll get a tad more than that, but not to a staggering degree.
Matthews: Tavares got 11M, and I think that's exactly what Matthews is going to get. Eichel at 10.5 kinda set the low bar, and I don't believe that he cracks 12 million, although if he has a 'breakout' season, he very well could.
Johnsson/Kapanen: The perfect type of wingers for the modern game. Speedy, skilled, and actually somewhat good on defence. I really have no clue what their deals could look like, but I doubt they'd be more than 4M, especially considering both are practically in their rookie seasons.
Gardiner: The most polarizing defenceman, maybe in the league, but I think for all of his qusetionable decision-making, he's well worth the money. Not many 50-point defenders who can skate as well as he can are available for cheap or fall into your lap. 5.5 may seem a bit high, but remember a rising cap. Anything over 6M I'd walk away at however.
Depth Forwards: Speaks for themselves. Wait a week or two into free agency, and sign two/three depth guys hungry for minutes. Top three lines will probably play 50-55 minutes of the games anyways, fourth line can just skate and add some energy.
Trades
Marleau/Zaitsev: Necessary, if not unfortunate, moves. Marleau did everything expected of him, but if the Leafs are going to resign everyone, his 6.25 cap hit has got to go. With only one year left on his deal, the fact that he only needs to be paid 1.25 M in actual salary, and assuming he can still skate as well as he does now, I'm sure any team (Arizona was juts an example) with cap space to spare and a need for some veteran scoring could use him. Same goes for Zaitsev, kinda. I think he's not as good as he was in his rookie season, but also not as bad as he was in 17-18. And despite his burdensome contract, a young-ish top-4 RHD who can (hopefully) still learn a thing or two still has value in this league. Leafs might have to add an asset or two if need be, but I'm fully confident they can get him off the books without retaining salary. Keep in mind the return doesn't really matter, I just guessed what their values might be.
Brown: As much as I like Brown, he doesn't fit in the Leafs lineup anymore. I think Kapanen is both a) a better player atm, b) has a higher ceiling, and c) more suited to play the Leafs' style. However, this leaves a former 20-goals-as-a-rookie player on the fourth line, which given their limited minutes is wasting a valuable asset. I've been a big fan on Pysyk for years now, and believe his defence-first approach could make him an effective asset on the Leafs blueline. He's also behind Ekblad and Petrovic in Florida, and on a team that also boasts Yandle, Matheson, and McCoshen, he could be available for the right price. Leafs chip in a future no. 7 and maybe a pick as well to seal the deal.
Horton: While I put him on IR here, he only would have a year left, and I'm sure the Leafs could find a team willing to take on the contract for some additional assets, a la Brian Bickell to Carolina.
Overview
This is a team that can very well win championships, and at the very least, be a part of the upper echelon in the league. People draw a lot of attention to the defence, and a lot of that negativity is warranted. However, there are some factors to consider:
1) The Leafs biggest killer last year were the defencemen who were unable to effectively skate with the puck/were unable to exit the zone without putting it off the glass (Hainsey/Polak/Zaitsev) - ridding themselves of those types of players is addition by subtraction.
2) Gardiner and Rielly draw a lot of flak for their defending ability, and rightfully so in some cases, but their ability to generate offence is unquestionable, and with an offensive core like the Leafs have, that's a crucial skill to have on the back end.
3) There's a lot of young talent coming up through the pipelines. Dermott appears as if he'll be a reliable 3-4 for the next several years. Carrick and Marincin may not look pretty, but the numbers show that they're pretty damn effective (when sheltered). Liljegren is progressing nicely in the AHL, and playing full time in the NHL by 19-20 is not very far away. Plus, with others such as Sandin, Durzi, Rasanen, and whomever else they find via FA/draft, the Leafs can feasibly plug those holes in a cheap and effective manner.
4) Finally, usage is a big factor as well. Babcock is a coach who does things his way, and if you find yourself in his doghouse (see Leivo, Josh) it's a hard battle back. However, some of his decisions hurt the team negatively. His decision to play Polak over Carrick most nights was both confusing and maddening. He played Hainsey 20 minutes a night, mainly for the PK, but had two parts of the AHL's best PK (Dermott and Marincin) sitting on the bench/wasting away in minors. By giving players more chances, or experimenting with special teams/lineups, the Leafs can see an improved result on defence.
5) The Leafs forward core, while mostly vaunted for their offensive abilities, can also play on the other side of the puck. Kadri has developed into a nice shutdown type of players, Marner and Nylander have speed on the backcheck (when they choose to), and Tavares, Kapanen, Johnsson, Hyman, i expect Lindholm, and whoever else they may bring in all have PK experience, meaning Babcock trusts them in a defensive situation. This all alleviates pressure on the defence, something a line featurnig JVR and Bozak, or the entire fourth line, couldn't be trusted with last year.
6) Finally, many of the best championship defences aren't built from superstars - juts look at the past few years. The Pens won their cups on the backs of their superstar offence and a talented goalie on a hot streak. Their defence was mainly cobbled together from 4-5s, and still got the job done. Washington won their cup with Michael Kempney being one of their better defencemen. The Leafs don't need a superstar on defence. They just need to be good enough, as a group, to let the forwards and the goalies do their jobs.
That's all. Hope you enjoyed this mini-essay, if you made it this far. Thanks for reading!
Lots and lots of words to describe your moves and make sense of 'em to finally realize that you think you're going to get a 2nd round pick for both Zaitsev and Marleau, next year, by trading 'em without retaining any salary/cap hit...pretty much no team will want Zaitsev and his contract after the last season he had. Maybe you were implying that he'll have a huge bounce back season (if so, it wasn't clear)...and for Marleau, at 40+ years old with a 6.25M$ cap hit while TOR are in trouble cap wise, why would any team gives up that much to help them? Do you think other GM's don't foresee Leafs cap situation? No one will make them that kind of gifts. They'll have to overpay and send a good prospect in both deals and get a 4-5-6th round pick from teams in order for them to accept. Everything was realistic, in your proposition, except that...which is very important cause That's the only thing that would make the Leafs cap trouble go away.
You just proved they’ll have cap trouble by trading Zaitsev and Marleau and signing 4 “depth fwd” for 700k each. ?
Usually, signing 3 depth forward (4th liners) in the summer amount to about 3-3.2M$ (one good depth player at 1.5M$, one young player from within at 750K and one 13th forward at 850K so roughly 3.1M$ instead of the 2.1M$ you had. Only 1M more, but considering the chances that all of W.N./M.M./A.M. gets more than what you projected (odds are high), plus the way you rid the Leafs of 2 bad contracts in a way it wouldn't happen makes us understand it'll definitely be hard for them to stick with that young core.
Actually the NHL salary cap is pretty straight forward, and hiring a many experts doesn't get around the limitations and rules of the cap.
That Marleau trade isn't happening. Marleau has a total NMC. He isn't been traded to a out of the playoff team just because CapFriendly GMs want cap space. 2019/20 will be his last NHL season and he wants to win a Cup and the possibilities are closer to being a Leafs than Arizona.
If Pysyk is a top pairing Dmen, he isn't getting traded to the Leaf so cheaply or even signed for so little.
For cap reasons logic would say Gardiner can't be resigned. Leafs are hoping two LHD in their system, Borgman and Rosen are NHL ready. If Zaitsev is worth 4.5m, the Leaf should keep him, if he playing to a 4.5m level , no team would trade for without a sweetener or retention.
Lots and lots of words to describe your moves and make sense of 'em to finally realize that you think you're going to get a 2nd round pick for both Zaitsev and Marleau, next year, by trading 'em without retaining any salary/cap hit...pretty much no team will want Zaitsev and his contract after the last season he had. Maybe you were implying that he'll have a huge bounce back season (if so, it wasn't clear)...and for Marleau, at 40+ years old with a 6.25M$ cap hit while TOR are in trouble cap wise, why would any team gives up that much to help them? Do you think other GM's don't foresee Leafs cap situation? No one will make them that kind of gifts. They'll have to overpay and send a good prospect in both deals and get a 4-5-6th round pick from teams in order for them to accept. Everything was realistic, in your proposition, except that...which is very important cause That's the only thing that would make the Leafs cap trouble go away.
If you read the section on the Marleau/Zaitsev trades, I mentioned at the end that the return doesn't matter to the Leafs, more so that the contracts get off the books. I am saying, considering that fourth liners can get 2nd round picks, getting one from a guy who scored 27 this year doesn't seem unreasonable. Plus, as I outlined, Marleau skates better than most veteran players, would only need to be paid 1.25 in actually money, and would be ideal for a team wanting to reach the cap floor. Zaitsev would be a harder contract to move because of the term, but it's not impossible - I agree that adding an asset is probably what must be done (see my Horton section), but he holds more value than most think.
Actually the NHL salary cap is pretty straight forward, and hiring a many experts doesn't get around the limitations and rules of the cap.
That Marleau trade isn't happening. Marleau has a total NMC. He isn't been traded to a out of the playoff team just because CapFriendly GMs want cap space. 2019/20 will be his last NHL season and he wants to win a Cup and the possibilities are closer to being a Leafs than Arizona.
If Pysyk is a top pairing Dmen, he isn't getting traded to the Leaf so cheaply or even signed for so little.
For cap reasons logic would say Gardiner can't be resigned. Leafs are hoping two LHD in their system, Borgman and Rosen are NHL ready. If Zaitsev is worth 4.5m, the Leaf should keep him, if he playing to a 4.5m level , no team would trade for without a sweetener or retention.
I never said hiring experts would get them around certain limitations, but having guys who know what they're doing and how to effectively use the system is crucial in a salary-capped league. While that's a fair point on regarding Marleau, I do think he could be convinced to waive it, especially if the team he's going to has potential to succeed - hell, maybe he goes back to the Sharks. Pysyk isn't a top pairing defenceman, he's a 3-4 realistically - he's playing on the top pairing to provide support for his partner, like Methot did for Karlsson (not an equivalent, just for the record). Additionally, that deal he's on was signed by the Panthers, not me. Borgman and Rosen are good players, but unless they're late bloomers, I doubt they could ever step into Gardiner's role and be anywhere close in terms of value for him. For Zaitsev, it's not so much the dollar value but rather the term - even if he was worth it, there are better alternatives for cheaper prices, something the Leafs must take advantage of if they want to maintain their forward core. I do agree on the sweetener part if he fails to bounce back however; as that could be truoblesome despite the desperate need for RHD by practically every team.
Usually, signing 3 depth forward (4th liners) in the summer amount to about 3-3.2M$ (one good depth player at 1.5M$, one young player from within at 750K and one 13th forward at 850K so roughly 3.1M$ instead of the 2.1M$ you had. Only 1M more, but considering the chances that all of W.N./M.M./A.M. gets more than what you projected (odds are high), plus the way you rid the Leafs of 2 bad contracts in a way it wouldn't happen makes us understand it'll definitely be hard for them to stick with that young core.
Given the Leafs development system, promoting from within for two fourth line spots isn't far out of the question, and would cost at most 925k each. However, if the Leafs go bargain hunting, as they did with Tyler Ennis and sign them to the league minimum, it's fully doable. Even if nobody you offer during the summer wants to sign for league minimum, wait until training camp season and offer PTOs; usually, those guys are just looking for anyway to stay in the league and would accept anything. As mentioned in the trade sections, and in response to the other comments, the return that I listed wasn't necessarily supposed to be realistic, but rather what a team would *potentially* pay for that asset, as a maximum. And as a whole, this was done in response to those saying one of Nylander/Marner must go, Gardiner won't resign, offer sheet Matthews, etc. - some moves are necessary to rid themselves of bad contracts; that's the reality for every team. I just tried to illustrate that the Leafs can keep their core together and still be able to a) afford it and b) compete at the same time.
Gardener is gone they ain’t going to resign him. Johnson just signed for 700k. They will be able keep Marleau for his last season.Hansiney might take less to stay. With the cap going up and if a BIG IF Matthews, Nylander, Mariner take a little discount. They won’t get a stud defensmen maybe two solid D with Rielly and Dermont
Gardener is gone they ain’t going to resign him. Johnson just signed for 700k. They will be able keep Marleau for his last season.Hansiney might take less to stay. With the cap going up and if a BIG IF Matthews, Nylander, Mariner take a little discount. They won’t get a stud defensmen maybe two solid D with Rielly and Dermont
This was for the 19-20 season, so Johnsson's deal would've expired again by then. If Gardiner's demand is reasonable, I don't see a glaring reason aside from his decision-making as to why they shouldn't, especially if the alternative is losing him for nothing. Marleau would be doable, but it'd be uncomfortably close and someone would have to take on Horton's contract. I don;t want Hainsey to stay tbh, his only asset is penalty-killing and the stats say he doesn't even do that well anymore. And finally, as I said, many teams do well without having a superstar on defence - consistency and depth are the keys, especially for a front-loaded team like the Leafs.
I wish everyone put as much thought into analyzing future ramifications as you have here. While I may not agree with some of your assertions, I wholeheartedly agree with the totality that your projection and all of the reactions to it suggest: The Leafs will be able to keep Marleau, Tavares, Nylander, Hyman, Matthews, Marner, Johnsson, Kadri, Kapanen, Rielly and Liljegren.
Appreciate the thought and effort put in to this. Although I do agree with the comments from some posters here that Marleau won't be moved. He has a NMC, just uprooted his family to be here, and is on a team that will hopefully be making a couple deep playoff runs in his final two years. The only way his contract comes off the books is if he retires after this season and the leafs trade his contract + a sweetener to a cap floor team
I'm likely in the minority here...but I don't think Zaitsev would be hard to move right now with 0 retention, as long as the leafs didn't care what the return was. He's had 1 solid season and 1 plauged by injury and illness. Honestly the Toronto media is to blame for how everyone in the area perceives him right now. As soon as he got injurred the Leafs' D started to struggle and the media was pining for his return. Him and Hainsey were logging all 2min of penalty kills. I think he got worn down, then sick, lost weight, and never caught up. Toronto would be wise to just keep him as he could very well be the answer at RD we need.
I don't see the need to trade Horton. He gets slapped on the LTIR so no use giving up an asset to move him. Plus he doesn't have insurance so whichever team has him on thier roster is paying his full salary which not too many teams can write off so easily.
Most other points I agree on. Particularly your assessment of Conor Brown. And your comments on Gardiner. I think his production offensively helps the team more than his occassional blunders hurts them. And at less than $6m is a good re-signing....for me it depends entirely on how Dermott looks this year. If he proves he's ready for full time top-6 minutes on the left side than Gardiner's cap dollars are likely better spent elsewhere.
While some things in this may be debatable, such as the $$ amounts for extensions or trade returns, this was very well done. You did a great job analyzing the Leafs current roster, as well as what players should project to be. Good depth as well, with lots of reasoning behind every decision. Good job.
Very nice, and great description overall. I think the contracts are very realistic, probably close to what will happen. Zaitsev will be worth a little bit more on the trade market. He plays for the Russian national team and some people will value the reputation. Brown for Pysyk is an interesting trade for both teams: well justified, great work. The big question is whether a Marleau trade could really happen.
Very thoughtful and insightful bit of writing! I agree with most saying that trading Marleau & Zaitsev would be a tough sell. Arizona or Ottawa or someone like that makes sense so the can get to the cap floor but unless Toronto wins the Stanley Cup this year I can't see Marleau agreeing to a trade. Maybe the Leafs and Marleau have a verbal contract that he will retire after year 2 and that's why his $$$ is so low for that final year but they would still have to trade that cap hit. That in theory is good but it's against the rules. If the Leafs don't win the cup they Marleau won't accept a trade anywhere.
Zaitsev is stuck. He is too expensive and was too unproductive last year. I could see a trade if we took a little bit of his contract back but it's still a tough sell.
I agree that depth forwards and Marlies players is a great way to fill out the bottom line. I hope the old Colton Orr/Matt Martin mentality is gone.
Curious as to how a future expansion draft would effect this team. If it's after the 2020 season would that mean Liljigren would have to be protected?
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