You know what is funny... You overpaid everyone, including Nylander's bridge deal.
For caps hits see the following.
I am currently making a more in depth version of this, but it will do for now:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/877874

I'm thinking a little bit differently about a bridge deal for Nylander. If. it's a three year, I don't see why the Leafs should. be really punitive on the $$$ 5.5m would be fine by me, by that me's.

The post. Another Horton trade......why? Horton's cap doesn't affect the Leafs next year and do you really think the Coyotes wants to pay out of pocket 5.3m.?

If we are bridging Nylander, the cap needs to be low so that we can win now so we can afford to pay him later. Also comparables would put him low to mid 4s.

I know that is the logic. But the having him on a low cap whether 4m or 5.5m, doesn't affect all what he going to make in your four of the deal. Just saying it is kinda of "good faith" deal. He's still get paid 1m under his value on 5.5m bridge Now I know the Leafs want to long term and maybe even Willie does. But this long term deal doesn't seem to be working.

It is kind of why I have been saying the contract was going to be 5-6 years all summer. A mid-term deal. (1-3 bridge) 4-6 (mid term) 6-8(long term) (6 is kind of both a mid and long term deal, depends on when they sign it. It is midterm b/c Nylander is mostly selling RFA years).

I didn’t know how to put Horton on LTIR so the only way to stay under the cap was to trade him for a fifth round pick which is inconsequential to the roster anyway. I cant’t see them being able to brdge Nylander for less than $5M and Matthews is getting Mcdavid money or more and Marner similar to Kucherov given the increased cap and what I see them doing this year.

Drag and drop to IR bar

Otherwise longterm :
Matthews is 11M max ( being overhyped by ppl )
Marner is 8M max
Nylander is 7M max

It is kinda strange. There are only eight options on term that both sides could present as offers to anther 1 year, 2, years, 3,4,5,6,7,8. Now both sides put in their $$$$ offer for each of those term years. Shouldn't be difficult to find at least one term and $$$ that was acceptable to both parties. Apparently it's more difficult than I figure as both sides can't even find acceptable term and $$$.

Well, one camp is way overvalued and the other is trying to get minimum market price so... yeah....

i still think @LoganOllivier is making a good point here

Matthews is not getting McDavid money unless he wins 2 of the Rocket, Hart, Art Ross, and Conn Smythe. Hell he needs at least one to get 12. McDavid won 3 trophies his contract year (Hart, Ted Lindsey, Art Ross)

If Matthews scores 50 and 100 which I expect he will, he will get McDavid money. Nylander is not worth $7M and he won’t be getting it from the Leafs. Maybe after a bridge deal. You have undervalued Marner who is arguably the second best player on the team.

I think that is more a bonus than a strategy.
That being said, I think that does take even more pressure off the Leafs, as they get even more leverage just for waiting out. It is a misconception that Nylander is holding out, he isn't. The Leafs are the ones holding out here.

Wrong way to evaluate players contract weight and term....

It’s actually less than McDavid Money because the cap will be about 10% higher than when McDavid sogned so it’s actually a little over $11,000,000 in McDavid dollars and Matthews and other agents will definitely be using the cap percentage as the comparable.

Please use the quote function, as I am only guessing you are talking to me here. As it stands, Marner is only marginally better than Nylander, and would not get a huge raise on him (500 to 750k). Even you say yourself that Nylander is not worth 7, so why would Marner, who is a very similar player, be worth that much more than him? All predictions above 7.5-8 are guessing he will have a completely dominate season. I think he will have a better season, and I am fully aware he could go as high as 8, but I cannot see him getting any higher than 8 based on his play. Why? because of his comparables. Let me link you the newer cap chart I am working on so you can see for yourself. Just a warning, it is unfinished right now.
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/884206

On Matthews:
As I said, McDavid won 3 trophies and utterly dominated the league all year in his contract year. To even get 12, Matthews needs to win one of the big 4 (Rocket, Hart, Art Ross, and Conn Smythe). His comparables have him at 11, with Cap inflation.

What does that even mean?

The error you make is that Matthews is in any way comparable to McDavid.
Look at the numbers here:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/884206
He is a goal scoring Eichel (who makes 10), not McDavid.

He is saying that where a player ranks on the team is the wrong way of valuing contracts. That is the same error Buffalo and Edmonton made when they overpaid the **** out of McDavid and Eichel.

Well if he is as good or better than Tavares and I also believe that he will be as good as Kutcherov this season then he will be paid accordingly. Matthews and Marner can drive a line themselves and Nylander can’t. Do you really believe that Marner at the end of this season will not have outperformed Nylander? I want to sign these guys for the
least amount possible but given the talent that M and M play with, the PP they are on and their improved skiils and play so far this season, they will not come cheap and unless the Leafs management can convince them to take a home town discount which is not a given, they will get paid what their comparables from other teams have signed for.

Yeah, and have you seen what Marner's comparables make? I will run down the list (and add Kuch): (NCI = No cap inflation)
Nylander expected contract NCI: 7@6
Gaudreau contract: 6@6.75
Pasternak Contract: 6@6.66
Marner expected contract NCI: 6-7@6.66
Forsberg contract: 6@6
Draisaitl contract: 8@8.5
Kuch: 8@9.5 <---- Signed in UFA, all the above are RFA, and RFA is significantly cheaper to buy.

You need to project out what his comparables will be at the end of the season with a higher cap. Those numbers will no longer apply. I believe he will be better than Draisitl and similar to Kucherov.

misposted

You are totally right we need to add cap inflation to these numbers, notice how most are in the 6's? There is a method to my madness of giving him 7.5 million. Kucherov signed as a UFA, his numbers are almost entirely irrelevant. I must say, I love your enthusiasm, but most players take a step forwards, not 3 or 4 or 5, like you are suggesting. When projecting numbers for an improving player with a track record, you don't say "They will get 25 more points! Let us pay them based on that "reasonable" assumption!" You project based on normal progression due to the difficulty of the league (10 extra points is ******* huge man), and that leads you to this conclusion:
Nylander: 6.5
Marner: 7.5 (Nylander plus 1 million, because they are similar, then be prepared to factor in a possible JT factor and you get 8)
Matthews: 11 (matching with the JT contract, and being Eichel's contract with inflation. Remember, Matthews is an RFA, while JT is a UFA (RFA is significantly cheaper). The numbers actually show them as being very comparable.

Kucherov signed his deal this year as an RFA not a UFA and it doesn’t kick in until next season so is a good comparable. Adding 5 goals to Matthews pace from last year is not a huge step and neither is Marner getting 80 points. Those are very reasonable assumptions. We disagree on the relative merit of M&M and their comparables in the marketplace and in my opinion it is unlikely unless both players are willing to take a home team discount which is very dangerous to assume.