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Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman

Team: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Nov. 8, 2018
Published: Nov. 8, 2018
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Fans need to stop building up all these 2nd pair defenceman they are sending to TO for Nylander. Its just silly.
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  1. Manson, Josh
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Could use Brown instead of Johnsson but TO offers up cheap offensive forward who can add some scoring depth for Anahiem and relieve some cap issues since they have some bad contracts. Manson not being one, but he's no allstar, he's a 2nd pair guy who would be a big upgrade over Hainsey.
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  2. Johnsson, Andreas
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:09 a.m.
#26
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Quoting: Salzy
Just because scoring is at a premium doesn't mean DFD are any less valuable, the package you suggested gets you 3rd pair defenceman not top pair Ds


Josh Manson makes 4.1 million a year which is fair for what he contributes. Nylander is worth at least 6.5 million for what he contributes to the team. That is a gulf of about 2/3rds. Teams value scoring more than defensive defenseman, mainly because the difference between the best defensive defenceman and an average one is very small. The difference between the best offensive players and average ones is far greater.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:09 a.m.
#27
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Edited Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:19 a.m.
Quoting: LoganOllivier
Fair, but why then are teams clamouring for fast skating puck movers for the back end? Also why do forwards who score get paid more than defensive defenceman?


Same reason a DH who hits .240 with 35 HR gets paid more than a defensive whiz that hits .285 with little power. Supply and demand. But that defensive whiz prevents runs from being scored which is just as valuable. It’s just not sexy or put butts in the seats. Remember the add campaign “Chicks dig the long ball”?

But there is an old adage....defense wins championships. And another specific to hockey...build from the net out.

Outside of Gretzky’s Oilers how many defensive poor teams have found playoff success?
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:11 a.m.
#28
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
Bobby Ryan is a bad contract for a player that looked like he was going to be a star after scoring 4 straight 30+ goal seasons. This is a poor example, you aren't stupid and you understand there are outliers in everything and bad contracts are just that.


Yeah but saying salary = skill is an awful argument. There's no shortage of skilled top 6 RWs in the NHL but top pair shutdown, cost controlled RHDs are very valuable and come at a premium. All of Manson's advanced numbers, and the eye test, point to him being a top pairing dman.
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:12 a.m.
#29
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Quoting: JayBeagleFanAccount
Bobby Ryan makes more the Sasha Barkov. According to your logic that makes Ryan better than Barkov.


Milan Lucic makes more than many players better than him. This includes guys like Arvidsson, Kadri, Barkov, and many, many more. It's a load of s**t to say that he's better than them
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:12 a.m.
#30
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Quoting: PenGoater99
Manson is not the guy that goes out and gets you points, that's not the role he's suited for. He's a great DFD and Anaheim suffers when he's not on the ice. He has a great shot against impact when he's on the ice as teams tend to get -1 excess shots per hour from in between the faceoff dots (high danger area) during the time that Manson is on the ice. You can't say that just because he only has a career high of 37 pts that he isn't worth what Anaheim is giving him. He's worth more than 4.1


Sure, I am not going to argue that. Its all soundly thoughtout and presented. And in regards to the trade I proposed you are bang on. The thing I keep hearing is guys like Manson would cost Nylander plus and I can't fathom why people think this way. Even the contracts teams pay to these types of players show more value is given to offense than defence and yet fans are treating Nylander like a 3rd line winger with upside. Its frustrating.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:14 a.m.
#31
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Power play points are easier, and can be somewhat arbitrary. In a 31 team league, the 31 right handed defensemen with the most even strength points should be considered#1 RHD, right?

If you can't get last year's #30 for Nylander, you're probably not getting #8 for Johnsson.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&leftyOrRighty=R&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints,points
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:14 a.m.
#32
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
I wouldn't even pay a 1st for Manson, well maybe just a 1st, but not a player plus a first. Manson is a good defenseman but there is no guarantee that he'd be as good in a different system or with different partners. The point of this is more to figure out why people are so nuts for defensive defenseman right now.


He currently plays in one of the worst defensive systems in the league and he still finds a way to be one of the best out there, just imagine how good he could be if he got to play in a better system
Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:15 a.m.
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
Josh Manson makes 4.1 million a year which is fair for what he contributes. Nylander is worth at least 6.5 million for what he contributes to the team. That is a gulf of about 2/3rds. Teams value scoring more than defensive defenseman, mainly because the difference between the best defensive defenceman and an average one is very small. The difference between the best offensive players and average ones is far greater.


I understand why offense is more valuable than defense, But that doesn't mean you can get a guy who is arguably a top 10 DFD for what is essentially spare pieces and a 2nd, Manson's value to the league may not be high but his value to the ducks is, Not saying he's immovable but it would take alot more than this offer imo
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:15 a.m.
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
Fair, but why then are teams clamouring for fast skating puck movers for the back end? Also why do forwards who score get paid more than defensive defenceman?


Ignore this. For some reason it posted my response twice but minutes apart. Lol.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:16 a.m.
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Quoting: Gofnut999
Same reason a DH who hits .240 with 35 HR gets paid more than a defensive whiz that hits .285 with little power. Supply and demad. But that defensive whiz prevents runs from being scored which is just asvaluable. It’s just not sexy or put butts in the seats. Remember the add campaign “Chicks dig the long ball”?

But there isan old adage....defense wins championships. And another specific to hockey...build from the net out.

Outside of Gretzky’s Oilers how many defensive poor teams have found playoff success?


Pittsburgh did it back to back, and before you say it, yes Pittsburgh had a better defense in year two than in year 1 but when Letang was hurt the Pens defence was paper thin, fortunately they had a team defence strategy that made them win.

Defence may win championships but one that that definitely doesn't win championships is teams that can't score. Look how amazing the Flames defence was supposed to be last season or Carolina's every year and yet they haven't been playoff teams.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:18 a.m.
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Quoting: PenGoater99
Milan Lucic makes more than many players better than him. This includes guys like Arvidsson, Kadri, Barkov, and many, many more. It's a load of s**t to say that he's better than them


That's also a bad example and doesn't at all help your stance in this discussion. Lucic is a bad contract. Many teams have bad contracts. Those are problem that exists outside of this discussion.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:20 a.m.
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
I wouldn't even pay a 1st for Manson, well maybe just a 1st, but not a player plus a first. Manson is a good defenseman but there is no guarantee that he'd be as good in a different system or with different partners. The point of this is more to figure out why people are so nuts for defensive defenseman right now.


Manson will not come cheaply with that contract. That is a player on a great contract/term and no Manson is not a number One D-man but the Ducks would want more then your proposed deal. I wouldn't give up Kappy but that is what the Ducks would ask for.
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:23 a.m.
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Quoting: JayBeagleFanAccount
Yeah but saying salary = skill is an awful argument. There's no shortage of skilled top 6 RWs in the NHL but top pair shutdown, cost controlled RHDs are very valuable and come at a premium. All of Manson's advanced numbers, and the eye test, point to him being a top pairing dman.


Nylander is a top RW on half the teams in the League, some teams would even try to make him their #1 centre. (I am not saying he is one, that is silly, but some teams have worse options at 1C than Nylander) There are many top 6 wingers out there but not many who are ranked #9 in the entire league according to an indepth statistical evaluation.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/definitive-ranking-nhls-top-20-right-wingers-three-seasons/

The players in this list are all better than just skilled top 6 wingers. These are the top right wingers in the league.

As for Manson, he's a good defenceman and he'd be a huge upgrade for TO, but if its going to cost you a 1st, a top 6 winger and a prospect, that is insanity. If that is the price it takes to get a right handed defenceman, you just don't get one because overpaying massively is never wise.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:23 a.m.
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
Pittsburgh did it back to back, and before you say it, yes Pittsburgh had a better defense in year two than in year 1 but when Letang was hurt the Pens defence was paper thin, fortunately they had a team defence strategy that made them win.

Defence may win championships but one that that definitely doesn't win championships is teams that can't score. Look how amazing the Flames defence was supposed to be last season or Carolina's every year and yet they haven't been playoff teams.


Pittsburgh also has 2 generational talents, Phil Kessel, a good coach, and good depth scoring. Thats why they were able to go back to back.
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:24 a.m.
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Quoting: TiBo23
Manson will not come cheaply with that contract. That is a player on a great contract/term and no Manson is not a number One D-man but the Ducks would want more then your proposed deal. I wouldn't give up Kappy but that is what the Ducks would ask for.


His contract is fair for what he is, I wouldn't say Manson has an amazing contract. I don't think Pesce has an amazing contract either, I think its fair for what he brings to the table. If a fair contract for Nylander is 6.5 million then he's more valuable. Otherwise why does he get that much money?
Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:26 a.m.
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Quoting: JayBeagleFanAccount
Pittsburgh also has 2 generational talents, Phil Kessel, a good coach, and good depth scoring. Thats why they were able to go back to back.


Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kadri are at the very least = to Malkin, Crosby, Kessel and whoever else you want to include with thier top 5. I do think TO can still tighten up a lot but I don't think they are so much worse than anyone else, I think they are different from a lot of teams but they are a top team.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:31 a.m.
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Quoting: Eli
Power play points are easier, and can be somewhat arbitrary. In a 31 team league, the 31 right handed defensemen with the most even strength points should be considered#1 RHD, right?

If you can't get last year's #30 for Nylander, you're probably not getting #8 for Johnsson.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&leftyOrRighty=R&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints,points


That was a pretty impressive season he had, and you are right the trade I proposed wasn't at all fair. The point I am trying to make though is that, a defensive defenseman is not worth Nylander because offense is more valuable than anything else. All the arguments in the world get lost when you just look at what teams pay the most for. If defensive defenseman where worth the same as a player like Nylander, then Manson would be making 6.5 million a year.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 10:41 a.m.
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
That was a pretty impressive season he had, and you are right the trade I proposed wasn't at all fair. The point I am trying to make though is that, a defensive defenseman is not worth Nylander because offense is more valuable than anything else. All the arguments in the world get lost when you just look at what teams pay the most for. If defensive defenseman where worth the same as a player like Nylander, then Manson would be making 6.5 million a year.


You keep calling top 30 offensive rhd "defensive defensemen." I think if you target guys between 32 and 62 on that list, who aren't top tier offensive defensemen, you'll have very good luck in getting one of them for Nylander. I mean, you'd trade Zaitsev for Nylander, right?
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 11:01 a.m.
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
That was a pretty impressive season he had, and you are right the trade I proposed wasn't at all fair. The point I am trying to make though is that, a defensive defenseman is not worth Nylander because offense is more valuable than anything else. All the arguments in the world get lost when you just look at what teams pay the most for. If defensive defenseman where worth the same as a player like Nylander, then Manson would be making 6.5 million a year.


Why is Manson a defensive defenseman? Because he can play defense? He had the 3rd-most 5v5 pts among RD last year. I understand your argument about the age difference, but I think you're underestimating Manson here.
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 11:14 a.m.
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Quoting: A_K
Why is Manson a defensive defenseman? Because he can play defense? He had the 3rd-most 5v5 pts among RD last year. I understand your argument about the age difference, but I think you're underestimating Manson here.


He was one of several options I could have used. I figured he cause less hate to be thrown my way.

One thing though that never was answered in this entire post is this. If these type of defenseman that everyone wants to trade Nylander for are so valuable, why do they all make less than 4.5 million a year?

People will say Pesce is more valuable than Nylander and then pay Nylander 7 million plus while the other guy gets under 4.5 and that is a fair deal.

Offense is worth more than defence from a salary perspective and yet people are on here saying these guys are worth so much more in a trade. That doesn't make any sense.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 11:18 a.m.
#46
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
He was one of several options I could have used. I figured he cause less hate to be thrown my way.

One thing though that never was answered in this entire post is this. If these type of defenseman that everyone wants to trade Nylander for are so valuable, why do they all make less than 4.5 million a year?

People will say Pesce is more valuable than Nylander and then pay Nylander 7 million plus while the other guy gets under 4.5 and that is a fair deal.

Offense is worth more than defence from a salary perspective and yet people are on here saying these guys are worth so much more in a trade. That doesn't make any sense.


To answer that question you would have to look at some kind of WAR stat, or something that you can compare different player types/positions with. You also have to consider that some of these guys signed contracts before they really evolved into what they currently are. Nylander doesn't fit that mold after to 60+ pt seasons to begin his career. And like you said, offense is valued over everything else when determining a player's contract. It shouldn't sound outrageous that a d-man making less could be worth more than a forward making more.
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 11:28 a.m.
#47
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An AHL defenseman, a struggling young player and a second round pick for part of their top pair? This is the type of whacky trade we've been seeing from a lot of Toronto fans lately.
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 11:31 a.m.
#48
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
He was one of several options I could have used. I figured he cause less hate to be thrown my way.

One thing though that never was answered in this entire post is this. If these type of defenseman that everyone wants to trade Nylander for are so valuable, why do they all make less than 4.5 million a year?

People will say Pesce is more valuable than Nylander and then pay Nylander 7 million plus while the other guy gets under 4.5 and that is a fair deal.

Offense is worth more than defence from a salary perspective and yet people are on here saying these guys are worth so much more in a trade. That doesn't make any sense.


This is usually because defensive play is a lot tougher to measure and compare than offensive stats. At the end of the day, you need both types of players to win games. Their on-ice value is not determined by how much money they make.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 11:34 a.m.
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
That's another issue that I have with how people look at situations like this. Fans look at the past couple of seasons and say "you're a 60 point winger, you don't deserve close to as much money as you think." That's somewhat fair but try to look at it from the point of view of the player. He is saying, yes I'm a 60 point winger, but I believe in myself and if I am going to sign long term, I'd like to get paid what I feel like I will be contributing. He thinks he can be a point a game player and to be honest, I don't think that's even that unlikely. He's going to have a tonne of high level talent to play with and he's super talented on his own. So its not like he's been a 60 point winger for 7 years and wants to get paid like an elite player. He hasn't even hit his prime yet.


And even if is was only a 60 point winger, thats really not that bad. Not bad at all.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 11:34 a.m.
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Quoting: A_K
To answer that question you would have to look at some kind of WAR stat, or something that you can compare different player types/positions with. You also have to consider that some of these guys signed contracts before they really evolved into what they currently are. Nylander doesn't fit that mold after to 60+ pt seasons to begin his career. And like you said, offense is valued over everything else when determining a player's contract. It shouldn't sound outrageous that a d-man making less could be worth more than a forward making more.


I took a look at Manny's (Corsica) WAR stats for '17-18:

OWAR:
Nylander......1.1
Pesce...........0.10
Manson.......0.15

DWAR:
Nylander....-0.13
Pesce...........0.39
Manson.......0.16

Total WAR:
Nylander....0.96
Pesce...........0.49
Manson.......0.31

Nylander is the most impactful despite his defensive quality being inferior to Manson and Pesce. This is unsurprising. I think you're still missing the point of pretty much every non-Leafs fan that is commenting on Nylander trades - TOR isn't getting fair value for him! Simple as that. Too much contract uncertainty and not enough reason for other teams to move a solid defenseman.

You and I both know that Nylander isn't getting traded, so maybe it's time to just let the rumors run their course (and for Dubas to sign the poor guy).
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